Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 302105
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
405 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ON THE WEST SIDE OF WINNIPEG IS IN PHASE WITH ANOTHER WAVE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NEAR REGINA. ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN HAVE
DISSIPATED...SO THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE DESPITE AGREEMENT THAT THE HIRES
NMM AND ARW/HRRR ALL INITIATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THAT WAVE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

CLOUD COVER WAS ALSO INCREASED TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS OF LATE MORNING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON MIDDLE LATITUDE
WEATHER AS WEAK SUBTROPICAL FLOW OVER CONUS WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE 12 UTC ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL/GFS
AND 06 UTC GEFS SUGGEST THAT ASSORTED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTICES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEAK FLOW...SO LOW CONFIDENCE
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAILY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KISN/KMOT/KBIS TODAY. AREAL COVERAGE IS MUCH TOO
SMALL TO INDICATE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KISN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...SCHECK
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