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000
FXUS63 KBIS 251851
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1251 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO ERODE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS A
WARM FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SCATTERED SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED BY THE KBIS
RADAR.

NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ISSUED AN
UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE 12Z KBIS SOUNDING INDICATED A SATURATED LAYER FROM THE SURFACE
TO ALMOST 700MB. DUE TO THE SATURATED LAYER AND SOME WEAK LOW-
LEVEL INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER AREAS
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER. INTRODUCED SAID WORDING IN THE FIRST
PERIOD FORECAST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST (FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY) THIS EVENING. IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...IT
SHOULD BEGIN AS A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SNOW...AND SLEET THIS
EVENING...THEN TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE AND A BRIEF WINDOW OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY MAJOR IMPACTS. THEREFORE...WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC. DID INCREASE HIGHS A BIT INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE FAR WEST TODAY WHERE THE STRATUS HAS
OR WILL BE SOON TO CLEAR THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

NO MAJOR FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING
ALONG TO EAST OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH STRETCHING FROM EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA BACK NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN. WHILE RADAR RETURNS ARE WEAK...SOME
OBSERVING SITES HAVE REPORTED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW THE PAST FEW HOURS
SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTION THROUGH MID MORNING. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH WASHES OUT AND FORCING ALOFT DECREASES. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH CENTRAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.

LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE LATEST
RAP/NAM LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS FOR SKY GRIDS. AS WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST...THE STRATUS DECK WILL START TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER MY FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST
DAYTIME HIGHS REFLECT THIS AS WELL.

WAA TODAY WITH A FEW MODELS GENERATING LIGHT QPF ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH SKY
COVER AS THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. MILD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH READINGS STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY RISING IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

POTENTIAL RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION ON MONDAY IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEAMPLIFY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS IT PROPAGATES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE RESULT IS THE
ADVECTION OF AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE 00 UTC NAEFS 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB
TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR TO RECORD BREAKING HIGHS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF MOSTLY BARE
GROUND THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.

LOCATION.....MONDAY FORECAST...MONDAY RECORD

DICKINSON..........53..........49 IN 1931
BISMARCK...........48..........52 IN 1942
WILLISTON..........47..........47 IN 2006
MINOT..............45..........58 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN..........42..........52 IN 1990

LOCATION......TUESDAY FORECAST......TUESDAY RECORD

DICKINSON..........56..........51 IN 2008
BISMARCK...........50..........48 IN 2008
WILLISTON..........48..........47 IN 1931
MINOT..............46..........55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN..........45..........47 IN 1989

THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO A DEEPENING CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND AND THE TRANSPORT OF ARCTIC AIR BACK INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MVFR/IFR CIGS OVER KMOT-KJMS WILL SLOWLY ERODE TO MVFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TM