Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 231947
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
247 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY POINT TO GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY. SHORT TERM
MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE BROAD H500
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
THIS FEATURE WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. WITH MOISTURE BEING LIMITED...THE MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST WINDS. WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED BE
IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY... THEY WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH.
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE SEE SOME
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
AND MOSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY. WITH GOOD MIXING WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD
SEE HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST...TO THE LOWER 60S
NORTHWEST.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
AN ONWARDS. BEFOREHAND...FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
LEAD WAVES FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST WITHIN
THE FLOW AND THROUGH OUR AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. OPTED TO INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY DAYTIME WEST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL UNDER THIS PATTERN. QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL BE SATURATED
ENOUGH AT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR ANY
MOISTURE TO REACH THE SURFACE...HENCE THE SLIGHT CHANCE USAGE.

BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALONG TO BEHIND THE WAVE CAA WILL COMMENCE AND MAY SEE A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING IF WE HAVE ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION. HIGHS MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH MORE
OCTOBERISH...MID 40S TO MID 50S. UNCERTAINTY AS WE PROGRESS
TOWARDS HALLOWEEN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO EXPECT A DRY FROPA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 30 KTS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH. THIS WILL
IMPACT KMOT THE MOST WITH WINDS. OTHERWISE VFR.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHERE WINDS COULD GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS LATEST
WIND FORECAST IS JUST A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS HAVE
INDICATED.

IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD RANGE
FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS REMAIN
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA ALTHOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ELEVATED.

REPORTS FROM FIRE MANAGERS INDICATED THAT THE GRASSLANDS ARE
DRY/CURED ENOUGH TO BURN READILY SHOULD WEATHER CONDITIONS REACH
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

HAVE ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THE LATEST WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...WAA








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