Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 041820
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1220 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1220 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Water vapor imagery loop shows the shortwave trough mentioned
earlier is now through the James River Valley and Turtle Mountains.
Weak reflectivitys have shifted east of our forecast zones.
For the rest of this afternoon, mid/upper level transitory ridge
providing ample sunshine west into portions of central ND.
Fog/stratus and surface observations indicate a low cloud deck
along and east of a line from near Sherwood to Minot, south into
Napoleon and east to Verona. The latest HRRR low level cloud
forecast lifts this area east for all but the Turtle Mountains
this afternoon. Thus will follow this for the sky grids through
the early evening.

UPDATE Issued at 923 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Latest water vapor imagery shows the back edge of the upper level
shortwave trough approaching the southern James River Valley north
into the Turtle Mountains. With radar reflectivitys trending
downward as main lift shifts east, did want to keep a mention of
isolated flurries through noon, which is about the time the trough
completely pushes through. Coordinated with surrounding offices
and all is good. Rest of forecast for today remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 634 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Another small area of light snow developed over south central
North Dakota with the backside short wave. Have addressed this by
adding some low precipitation chances over the south for the next
couple of hours. Have also adjusted hourly temperatures a bit as
some areas of central North Dakota have been fluctuating a bit.
Updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Current surface analysis places low along the Saskatchewan/Alberta
border with trough dipping down into the northern plains...while
high remains over the Great Basin. Upper level analysis places
trough slicing through the plains which produced some periods of
snow overnight. Weak impulse on the back-side of the trough is
producing a little bit more light snow over northern portions of
our area.

For today...weak ridge develops over the area in the wake of the
departing trough with dry conditions developing as it moves east.
In the meantime, an upper low over northern Saskatchewan gradually
deepens.

Tonight...first impulse swinging around aforementioned upper low
pushes into the area with snow chances gradually spreading from
west to east. Surface low that deepened to the lee of the Rockies
during the day pushes east overnight, with a cold front entering
far western locations by early Monday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 328 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Highlights in the long term continue to be the snow chances on
Monday along with the frigid temperatures/wind chill values
developing and remaining through mid-week.

Short wave swinging through the area starts to close off near the
international border on Monday while cold front swiftly moves
through the area. Snow chances continue through the day with
chances gradually tapering from southwest to northeast overnight.
With the speed of the system, snow accumulations should remain on
the light side over most locations...with a few inches possible
over the north central part of the state closest to the developing
low. High temperatures will be realized early over most locations,
with temperatures dropping in the afternoon with winds increasing
as pressure gradient tightens on back side of advancing surface
low.

Cold air continues to pour in on Tuesday with very cold
temperatures remaining steady or even falling through the day.
Snow chances remain north as some snow tries to wrap around
aforementioned upper low which will be meandering off to the east
near and to the north of Lake of the Woods. Dangerous wind chill
values will develop, dropping as low as 30 below zero overnight.
Similar scenario continues for Wednesday as gusty northwest winds
continue and upper low continues its gradual eastward meander,
swinging a short wave through the area bringing additional low
snow chances.

Frigid temperatures will remain over the area through the work
week. Snow chances return Friday into Saturday as modest
isentropic lift develops as warmer air moves in aloft, though cold
airmass at the lower levels will be well entrenched over the area
and will have trouble moving out until possibly the later portion
of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Ifr cigs at KMOT will quickly transition to vfr by 1830z Sunday and
at KJMS by 20z Sunday. Elsewhere, vfr cigs begin this Taf period
and will continue until 00z Monday. Thereafter, cigs will trend
downward toward mvfr/ifr after 00z Monday through 18z Monday.
Gusty northwest winds to around 25kt will develop after 12z Monday
with a vcsh at all terminals except KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD


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