Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 221015
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
415 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 415 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Forecast highlights in the short term period will focus on
ongoing precipitation amounts and type.

Currently, embedded S/WV impulses moving through the Northern
Plains continue to generate precipitation and extensive cloudiness
over western and central North Dakota. Forcing is being enhanced
with upper level divergence in the left exit region of an upper
level jet along with a surface cold front dropping south across
the state. Precipitation is now all snow north behind the boundary
with rain south. Surface air temperatures and road surface
temperatures across the south are right around freezing so will
continue to mention a window of freezing rain and/or sleet this
morning. Snow accumulations of 1-2 inches still forecast
northwest and north central, centered along Highway 2. Possible a
3 inch total may pop up but overall expect less.

Will maintain likely to categorical POPs through the early
afternoon hours, tapering off from north to south with time as
main forcing mechanisms push southward. Expect precip type to
transition to all snow as the cold front moves through the state
and temps aloft cool to below freezing. Temperatures today will
pretty much be where they are at now, or steady to slightly
dropping, with observations upstream in southern Canada still
showing upper 20s to low 30s (similar as we are observing this
morning).

Clouds remain tonight with partial clearing north possible. This
will result in lows mainly in the 20s despite the CAA. Mainly dry
though some light snow or flurries may be lingering about.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

Issued at 415 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Cooler temperatures and mainly dry conditions highlight the long
term period.

Colder air continues southward through the remainder of the week
and upcoming weekend as the upper level jet sags southward into
the southern CONUS. Forecast high temperatures will be seasonal in
the 20s to low 30s by Friday and remaining so through next
weekend. Main storm track will also be to our south with the upper
level jet. Models do indicate a few embedded waves that may move
through the Northern Plains, though QPF will be light and
precipitation type should remain all snow.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)

Issued at 150 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

MVFR conditions will develop south tonight with IFR conditions in
snow/stratus/fog across northern North Dakota. IFR conditions in
stratus and a mix of rain/snow/sleet will develop into Wednesday
across southern North Dakota.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...NH/CS



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