Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 281750
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1150 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WEST AND ADDED SCATTERED
FLURRIES WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON AS FLURRIES HAVE
BEEN REPORTED IN WILLISTON AND WATFORD CITY. THESE CLOUDS/FLURRIES
SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY PIVOT INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TODAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR
UPDATES REQUIRED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ONGOING FORECAST BLENDED TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE ZERO
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
OFF BELOW ZERO WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

A FEW FLURRIES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTH AS COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTH WILL NOT MOVE MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA MAY REBOUND INTO THE 20S BEFORE THE
FRONT PASSES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AN OSCILLATING TEMPERATURE PATTERN HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SUITES...WILL USE A BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BRIEF WARM UP INTO
THE 20S AND 30S IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT
MAY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE.
THEREAFTER...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FAVORED ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WOULD MARK A POTENTIAL RETURN TO NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SCATTERED FLURRIES AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KISN-
KDIK-KMOT THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 00Z...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
IN LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TM



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