Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 281421
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
921 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE MORNING. AFTERWARDS WE STABILIZE PRETTY WELL ACROSS THE
AREA SO WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS. CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED AND
TEMPERATURES WERE TWEAKED DOWN 2-4F DEGREES FOR THE MID MORNING
UPDATE.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS.
THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM BETWEEN GRAND FORKS AND
FARGO...SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR JAMESTOWN...TO NEAR LINTON AND FORT
YATES. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS WERE NORTHEAST WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE 40S. CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH STILL
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE IN A
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA...WITH SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT ON
REGIONAL RADARS OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH CLOUDS DEVELOPING/MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE 50S NORTH AND
WEST...AND IN THE 60S SOUTH CENTRAL.

TONIGHT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE NORTH AND INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THIS OCCURS. CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST/EAST
WINDS WILL KEEP COLDER AIR OVER THE STATE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE STILL FORECAST TO INCREASE WEST MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO
TIGHTEN UP INTO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE
DAKOTAS TUESDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST AND
NORTH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD
ONLY ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KFAR TO JUST SOUTH OF KJMS TO MOBRIDGE
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH TODAY. MVFR CIGS AT KHEI/KDIK TO KBIS SHOULD
EXPAND TO OTHER TAF SITES. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TO KISN/KMOT...THEN EXPAND SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR TO CONTINUE AND PERHAPS BECOME IFR TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV





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