Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 210629
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1229 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TEMPERATURES AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT WERE KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP IN THE LOWER 20S IN THE
SOUTHWEST...WHILE TEMPERATURES IN THE JAMES VALLEY WERE AROUND 10
ABOVE ZERO. AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WAS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND
IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN AREAL EXTENT WITH TIME DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS...AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN CHANGE FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST TIMING ON
CLOUD COVER AS AND AREA OF LOW STRATUS WORKS ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE HIGHER
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SOME SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS IN CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT TREND OF HIGH
CLOUDS SHIFTING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND A SMALL BAND OF
LOW CLOUDS TRYING TO SNEAK THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 304 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

A STRATUS DECK OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS BEGINNING TO ERODE AS
VERTICAL MIXING COMMENCES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL LOWS ARE STILL
FORECAST...WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO SET UP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 304 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A MILD START ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE MONTANA ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL TRIGGER LEE SIDE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...COUPLED WITH A S/WV
RIDGE MOVING EAST AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL RESULT IN
MILD DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY...MID/UPPER 30S MANY LOCATIONS. LOW 40S
ARE NOT UNREACHABLE BUT FOR NOW OPTED TO KEEP HIGHS BELOW 40F WITH
SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND SKY COVER UNCERTAINTY.

INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SEE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION MATERIALIZING IN THE AFTERNOON WEST. WILL KEEP
P-TYPE AS ALL RAIN WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH 800-750MB
ABOVE FREEZING.

FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY REGARDING P-TYPE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH CAA PUSHING FROM WEST TO EAST AND SFC
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AT OR BELOW THE FREEZING POINT. BLEND OF
MODELS/BUFKIT INDICATES THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARM AIR (+0C) ALOFT TO
PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIP AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR
SURGE...EITHER IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. AT THIS TIME
THE MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WEST/CENTRAL ND WITH FORECAST QPF ON AVERAGE
CLOSER TO A TRACE TO THE SOUTH.

COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z SUNDAY
ENDING ANY FREEZING PRECIP THREAT IF IT EVER DEVELOPS AT ALL WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVING INTO EASTERN ND. WILL MENTION THE
WINTRY MIX IN THE HWO AND CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL RUNS OVER THE
COMING DAYS.

NEXT WEATHER IMPACT QUICKLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY PERIOD
AS WE MOVE FORWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND. FOR BLOWING SNOW
IMPACTS...WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW WARM WE GET FRI-SAT AND HOW MUCH SNOW
FALLS ON SUNDAY.

AFTERWARDS...MONDAY-THURSDAY...A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
MAINTAINED KEEPING COLDER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ANY
EMBEDDED WAVE COULD TRIGGER SNOW SHOWERS SO KEPT A MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. INTERESTING AS WE NEAR THANKSGIVING WITH THE LATEST 12Z
GFS NOW SPREADING WAA ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
MAINTAINS STRONG CAA. LETS HOPE THE FIRST VERIFIES...BUT
CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF LED ME TO KEEP A COLDER FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

AT 06Z AN AREA OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WAS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE KBIS AND KJMS
TERMINALS WILL BE MOST AFFECTED...AND HAVE TEMPO CIGS AT 700 FEET
AND 1200 FEET. ONLY MADE MENTION OF SCT 1200 FT AT KMOT. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS AS SOUTH WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER ON FRIDAY WITH
MAINLY BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THAT SHOULD SCATTER OUT WITH TIME
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV





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