Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 191236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA. ACTIVITY HAD DISSIPATED
SOMEWHAT BUT A NEW STREAMER HAS FORMED FROM HAZEN TO CENTER AND IS
NOW APPROACHING CROWN BUTTE LAKE IN EASTERN MORTON COUNTY. OVERALL
LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN POPULATING LATEST
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CLOUDS...AND AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OPEN
WATER OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA WILL INDUCE BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A PLETHORA
OF STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME BREAKS
NOTED UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CANADA. HAVE KEPT THE
TREND FOR CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AS THE BUFKIT POINT SOUNDINGS
SHOW HIGH LOW LEVEL RH THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER
AIR WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DOES BEGIN TO CREATE A SHALLOWER MOIST
LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH PER RAP13.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWING NARROW STRIATED BANDS OF LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS
ADVECTING OFF OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA. EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND HAVE MENTIONED
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LAKE SAKAKAWEA VICINITY EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY OF 15 TO 30 MPH. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
15 TO 22.

AT THIS TIME...WILL TREND CLOUDS DOWNWARD TONIGHT AGAIN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. THIS WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT AGAIN
AS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN STRATUS TO REDEVELOP
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

GENERALLY QUIET WITH A WARMING TREND TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND WE TRANSITION
TO A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MAIN ISSUE EARLY WILL LIKELY BE
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES. LOOKS LIKE A NON-DIURNAL TREND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS DURING THE EVENING...THEN RISING TEMPERATURES
LATE. LOW STRATUS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RETREATING SURFACE HIGH
COULD ALSO CAUSE ISSUES WITH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS INTO FRIDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 19 NOV 00 UTC ECMWF HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE GFS/GEM SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND WE REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

TAFS BEGIN IN MOSTLY MVFR STATUS WITH BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS TO LOW VFR
CIGS AT TIMES. SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT KBIS WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES
OVER THE REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. VSBYS MAY
DROP TO BETWEEN 4SM AND 6SM MILES AT KBIS FOR SHORT A DURATION. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KDIK WHICH REMAINS MVFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT TO LOW VFR AT THE REMAINING AERODROMES
BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH





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