Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 260216
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
916 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

AREAS OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE
EAST. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...AND EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. THEREFORE...WILL TRIM POPS DOWN...ONLY
KEEPING LOW POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING TO THE EAST
OF THE STORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AS A MODEST SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE
STORMS PUSH EAST...GREATER INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED A FEW STORMS TO
STRENGTHEN BUT STILL HOLD BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES IN THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE STORMS PUSH EAST...THOUGH
EXPECT COVERAGE TO DECREASE AS THE EVENING WEARS ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEST/SOUTHWEST FROM THE OREGON/WASHINGTON
COAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ONE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST THROUGH WESTERN
MONTANA/IDAHO AND WILL REACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. CLOSER TO HOME ANOTHER WEAK FEATURE IS MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WILL SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WEST AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH THESE TWO FEATURES A RATHER MARGINAL
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE BIT WITH WEAK SURFACE FEATURES. DO
NOT FEEL CONFIDENT GOING MUCH ABOVE 30 TO 40 POPS TONIGHT WITH
THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE GFS AS IT SEEMS
THE OUTLIER BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF. IT GENERATES GENEROUS
PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF ARE
MUCH DRIER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS WINDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PLENTY OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE MAIN LONGWAVE
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
MONDAY AS IT BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY EVENING. THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS AND
CONTINUES MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
TUESDAY...REACHING LAKE SUPERIOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD FRONT RANGE LOW/TROUGH WILL BE IN
PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE BORDER OF ND/SD/WY/MT BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...EVEN INTO THE LOWER 70S IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES COMBINED WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY/CAPE FOR CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WEST AND NORTH ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH.

MONDAY EXPECTING MORNING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FROM THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS...BUT WITH TIME A MID-LEVEL THERMAL CAP SHOULD DEVELOP KEEPING
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DRY. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY THE CAP MAY BREAK IN THE WEST NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD SLOWLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH APPROACHES THE STATE...AND
IN TURN THE SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS IS THE TIME THAT MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE
BEST CAPE/BULK SHEAR COUPLET DEVELOPS LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND EXPECTING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS PERIOD. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS WELL AS MENTION
THIS IN THE GRAPHICAL GRIDS.

TUESDAY THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION...AND STRONG WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AS
COOLER AIR IS USHERED IN BEHIND THIS FRONT. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM 70
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S IN THE JAMES VALLEY...WITH WEST WINDS OF 25
TO 35 MPH. WINDY/BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON TUESDAY.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A
WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

ISOLD -TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLD/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS



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