Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 241223

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
623 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

Issued at 622 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

No change other than to blend to observed trends through 12 UTC.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)

Issued at 352 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

Chance for snow and a continued cloudy sky will highlight the
short term period.

Currently, positively tilted long wave upper level trough extends
from southern California north-northeast into central Canada.
Numerous cyclonic circulations in the mid levels within this
feature. Main features impacting our region (or soon to be) are a
closed low over the Central Rockies, an embedded S/WV trough over
eastern North Dakota, and another area of PVA over southern
Saskatchewan. The embedded S/WV moving across eastern ND brought a
band of light to moderate snow to far south central and portions
of southeastern ND the past few hours. This area of snow has been
diminishing in coverage and intensity the past hour or so as the
wave departs to our east. Other areas have remained mainly dry.
Extensive cloud cover remains and has acted to hold temperatures
steady or only slowly falling during the overnight. Fog southwest
once again this AM, though visibilities have been behaving

Closed low over the Central Rockies will continue east-northeast
across Nebraska today, generating a large area of accumulating
snow over South Dakota and Nebraska. Model trend has been a
southward push of the northern extent of this snow, thus POPs over
southern ND were lowered accordingly along with QPF and snow
amounts (now less than an inch and only a few tenths expected).
S/WV over southern SK will slowly pivot southeast into
northeastern Montana tonight and across North Dakota for Wednesday
and will bring a chance for light snow or flurries along with some
colder air. Overall impacts low. No relief from the clouds just

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)

Issued at 352 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

Colder/more seasonable temperatures through the rest of the work-
week will then be followed by a brief warmup this weekend. Strong
clipper system may then bring impacts to the Northern Plains early
next week.

Strong north-northwest flow aloft will be in place Wed night
through the first half of the weekend. Embedded impulses within
this flow will bring periods of light snow to the region as they
move southward aloft over a quasi-stationary broad north to south
baroclinic zone. Impacts low with any one of these possible waves
but very hard to pinpoint due to their scale and speed. We will be
better able to ascertain these features as move forward in time.
This pattern will also support colder/more seasonable temperatures
through Friday. Clouds look to persist.

Flow starts to transition Saturday as a high amplitude ridge
starts to move eastward towards the Northern Plains, then across
the region on Sunday. This will bring a moderation in temperatures
for this upcoming weekend. Not a big warmup, but something
nonetheless. Some breaks in the clouds are more likely this
weekend with this pattern change.

Ridge is crushed early next week as a 130KT upper level jet steers
a potent mid level S/WV through the Pacific northwest Sunday night
and across the Dakotas Monday. Overall track is still in question
so precipitation type and amounts are still uncertain. Higher
probability a strong associated cold front will bring in a period
of strong winds and much colder air. Stay tuned!!


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 622 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

Widespread MVFR and occasional IFR ceilings will remain over west
and central North Dakota through the 12Z TAF period. Area of snow
over southern ND early this morning expected to remain well south
of KDIK-KBIS. KJMS may see a period of -SHSN, though with little
if any impact to visibilities.




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