Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 261244

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
644 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Issued at 635 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Very cold across the snow covered ground in north central North
Dakota this morning where clear skies overnight allowed
temperatures to fall to near 10 below in places.

Widely scattered snow showers/flurries showing up on radar across
the south central. Will add flurries for a few hours across
Grant, Morton, Sioux and portions of Emmons counties. Looks like
the fog is ending northwest as the surface high is exiting and
upslope flow diminishes.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

At 3 am CST a surface high pressure area was centered near
Carrington North Dakota and will drift southeast today. The high
was partially clearing skies and has allowed temperatures to fall
to near 10 below across the north central this morning. Across the
west clouds and scattered areas of fog have formed in weak upslope
flow associated with the high.

During the day tonight the high will move east and another in a
series of weak low pressure systems will move across the state.
This will spread a chance for light snow to the west and central
again later today and tonight. The snow amounts will be light.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

The extended forecast will feature an active but rather weak
weather pattern with more weather systems moving through a
generally long wave trough pattern over the central CONUS. The
forecast features an almost daily chance of light snow through the
period but with light amounts. Temperatures will be near or a bit
below normal through the end of the week followed by the
beginnings of a warmup toward the end of the week as the h500
flow transitions from a mean longwave trough to a more progressing
westerly flow. This usually has the potential to bring a more
Chinook type flow to western North Dakota and by Friday and
Saturday highs across the southwest will be n the lower 40s with
30s elsewhere.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1233 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Surface high pressure across Manitoba will move southeast today.
Surface low pressure across southwest Saskatchewan will also
track southeast. MVFR conditions due to clouds will be prevalent
from KISN-KDIK-KBIS-KJMS with VFR expected at KMOT.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 635 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Scattered areas of MVFR and Occasional IFR conditions will be a
challenge for TAF forecasting today as conditions will vary from
MVFR to occasional VFR. KMOT has the best chance for VFR today.
Otherwise expect areas of stratus between 15 hundred and 4
thousand AGL most locations.




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