Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 021754
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1254 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA.
PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY SCATTERED AT BEST ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN MONTANA. HAVE UPDATED POPS
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR. MAIN UPDATE WILL BE TO ADD A WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL BEGIN
THE ADVISORY AT 21 UTC OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL...AND AT 00Z OVER
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION...GRADIENT WINDS
AND FALL/RISE COUPLET MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. NEAR
ADVISORY TO ADVISORY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS MIXING LAYER INCREASES AGAIN TO TAP
THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT. MAY DROP BELOW CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD BUT
TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...WITH GO THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS AND WIND ADVISORY WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT ABOUT TO ENTER NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
AND SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...SKIES WERE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH CLOUDS HANGING ON OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE STATE. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LESS CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL...AND ALSO
DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST BY A COUPLE HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTHEAST MONTANA AT 6 AM CDT. SO FAR THE
WINDS APPEAR IN LINE WITH FORECAST THERE. SCATTERED SPRINKLES
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE IN
LATER THIS MORNING. ADDED SPRINKLES THIS AM AND DELAYED THE
FRONTAL SHOWERS NORTHWEST A FEW MORE HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE THREAT OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW IN NORTHEASTERN
MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA.

THIS STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND DAYBREAK TODAY...REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND
NOON...AND SWEEPING EAST REACHING THE MINNESOTA BORDER BY EVENING.
INITIAL STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS CHARACTERIZED IN
THE PRESSURE FIELD WITH 3-HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF 4-5 MB. MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OF H850 WINDS OF 30-40 KNOTS WILL CREATE NORTHWEST
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THINK
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (WHICH IS
SUSTAINED AT 30 MPH). BELIEVE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AFTER
SUNSET WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST
FLOW MAINTAINING MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM H925-H875 WINDS OF 30-40
KNOTS.

COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE STATE...BUT THE STRONG MIXING
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING QUICKLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF NORTH DAKOTA.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE PRECIPITATION ALONG AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT ENDING SOON AFTERWARD WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. KEPT
A 15-25 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SLIGHT CHANCES LATE THIS EVENING FROM BOTTINEAU TO
JAMESTOWN. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS BY MIDNIGHT...EVEN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
NOT COOL THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR SNOW BEFORE MIDNIGHT. IN OTHER
WORDS...THE PRECIPITATION ENDS BEFORE IT WOULD GET COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT SOME FLURRIES MAY BE SEEN IN
SOME LOCALES...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED IN WESTERN OR
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS EVENT.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT DROPPING TO THE LOW TO
MID 30S IN THE WEST...AND TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S FAR
WEST TO THE MID 30S IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LOOKING AT COLDER
TEMPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY COOL AND DRY. THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURE THAT LEADS TO THIS CONCLUSION IS A PERSISTENT H500 UPPER LOW
THAT FORMS OVER HUDSON BAY DURING THIS PERIOD. THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ENDS UP ON THE DRY SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION APPEARS WITH A SHORTWAVE DUMBELLING AROUND THE H500
LOW THAT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR AND SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY....AND SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS INTO A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CANADA INTRODUCING A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR TEMPERATURES USED THE SUPERBLEND AND THAT
PRODUCED A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S NORTHEAST AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST...
TYPICAL FOR A CLOSED UPPER LOW NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. THE REGION
COULD SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S SATURDAY
MORNING FOR THE FIRST REGION WIDE HARD FREEZE DEPENDING ON WINDS
DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

MVFR CEILINGS MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT...LIFTING TO VFR. IN ADDITION NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWER SO
ONLY A VCSH MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-021.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
NDZ022-023-025-036-037-048-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH






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