Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 140544
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1244 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front dropping south will bring very low clouds and a
  slight (20%) of a rain snow mix along the International border
  tonight.

- Patchy fog tonight into Thursday morning across most of
  western and central North Dakota.

- Slight cooldown Thursday, turning to well above average
  temperatures Friday, with another cooldown to average this
  weekend.

- Breezy this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Low clouds continue to stream south through the area, with some
patchy fog mixed in. Main change for late night update was to
increase the speed and coverage of the cloud cover, along with
the development of the fog.


.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Cold front extends west-east across the central part of North
Dakota, with very low stratus building in behind the front. One
change with this update was to update sky cover and speed up
timing of overcast conditions in line with satellite trends, as
the western extent is already through most of McKenzie County.
With this, we also expanded and extended the mention of patchy
fog to the west and south, continuing into Thursday morning.
Automated observations are already reporting reduced
visibilities across northwest North Dakota, and some NDDOT
cameras are showing fog in this same area. Forecast soundings
are a bit inconsistent on how foggy it will get, since the
stratus deck is only expected to be a few hundred feet off the
surface. Regardless, we typically end up with at least some fog
in these situations, which is why we expanded the mention well
to the south.

Radar reflectivities and light rain has been nearly stationary
in the eastern James River Valley over the past few hours, so
did update POPs to keep slight chance for a couple more hours.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Some light rain continues to fall over portions of the James
River Valley but this activity should be on it`s way out to the
east soon. For late tonight through Thursday afternoon, went
ahead and decided to expand light precipitation chances across
north central first, and then down into the central and south
central as nearly all CAMs and global models are at least
producing some precipitation now. Otherwise, no major changes
were needed. Just blended in the latest observations to the
going forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

The area of fog on the Missouri Coteau still continues in Burke
and northern Ward counties. Visibility is much better than
earlier today and should continue to improve. Tonight a cold
front dropping south out of Canada will bring very low stratus
clouds and slightly breezier winds Thursday. These low clouds
will most likely also be in the form of fog. Based on the fog
performance of the NAM NEST today, we went with that for timing
again tonight. Along the front as well, a slight chance (20%) of
a rain/snow mix is possible on the border.

With the low clouds overnight, temperatures will be mild again
in the upper 20s and lower 30s tonight. Thursday with the
blanket of clouds, high temperatures will only slightly warm
into the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Friday we get back into the 50s with northwest flow and warmer
850mb temperatures. A clipper will then pass by north and east
of us Friday. This will create a tighter pressure gradient over
the state. However cold air advection and a high pressure
bubble is not evident in the models. So we lowered the NBM
winds, because they were advisory level, using a mix of the NBM
and NBM Experimental Friday to Friday night around midnight.
Saturday there is some cold air advection and a slight pressure
bubble so we left winds as is for now. Strongest winds Saturday
should be in the lower James River Valley. Temperatures will be
back down around average Saturday and Sunday.

The rest of the forecast period has uncertainty with where a
ridge axis will be located. The temperature spread in the NBM is
large still. Looks like either way we will be slightly above
average.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Widespread IFR to LIFR ceilings will continue to spread
south through the area over the next few hours. Conditions will
remain IFR to LIFR through early morning, with very gradual
improvement through the day. By mid-day, southwestern areas will
improve to MVFR, with improvement spreading northeast through
the afternoon. Some clearing is expected over western areas
Thursday evening, with conditions improving to VFR towards the
end of the TAF period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...JJS


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