Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 170457
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1157 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

LATEST FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE 925MB-H85 LAYER REMAINING NEARLY SATURATED THROUGH FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND LESS SO IN THE WEST.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGHER SKY GRID VALUES TO REFLECT THIS BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TO
SLIDE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY KEEPING THE
CLOUDS INTACT WITH NO THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS THEN BEGINNING TO
ABATE. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA...AND WITH NO
PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM HAVE PULLED OUT CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS THROUGHOUT THE AREA AND MODELS
ARE KEEPING THE CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

WINDS HAVE DECREASED A BIT OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THOUGH MODELS STILL INDICATE AMPLE MIXING TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT TO
CONTINUE BREEZY CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT THESE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
AND SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

MAIN CONCERNS INCLUDE STRONG WINDS TODAY...AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH.

A STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW LAGGING WEST NEAR RUGBY/CARRINGTON/GRAND FORKS. RAIN
SHOWERS CONTINUE NORTH CENTRAL PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS
MINNESOTA INTO IOWA. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WERE OVER ALL OF NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL. THE ONGOING WIND ADVISORY FOR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI...FROM WATFORD CITY TO BISMARCK TO JAMESTOWN AND SOUTH...IS
IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
MAINLY 45 TO 50 MPH IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EASTWARD AND BE IN
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BY EVENING. THE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS ALLOWING FOR
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THAT WOULD LINGER TONIGHT.

THINKING WINDS WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD BE
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 7 PM CDT/6 PM MDT. THUS TIMING OF
WIND ADVISORY SEEMS ON TRACK.

KEPT WINDS UP AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH THIS EVENING...AND 10 TO 20 MPH
LATER TONIGHT. THINKING LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE
STATE TONIGHT...DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAYTIME
FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S WEST TO LOWER 40S CENTRAL. COOLER AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY AS A COOL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY
REACH 45-55 F.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. LOOKING AT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES VALLEY
TO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE WEST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP WEST.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE 50S CENTRAL TO THE LOWER 60S WEST.

ON SUNDAY A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
MPH...BUT THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS MILD PACIFIC AIR AND EXPECTING
HIGHS TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE STATE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES...PUTTING THE DAKOTAS UNDER A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT STILL MILD FOR OCTOBER: HIGHS IN THE 60S...LOWS IN
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND FORECAST DATA SUGGESTS MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AERODROMES THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE
WEST AT KISN/KDIK...AND WILL LIKELY DOMINATE AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS
THROUGH 03Z SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KT WILL DIMINISH
TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY AT KMOT/KBIS...BUT WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS






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