Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 191950
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
250 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A NARROW OPPORTUNITY FOR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF THE WEST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN TRANSLATING INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY.

FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES THIS AFTERNOON BEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND ENHANCED THROUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS WARM
FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA...INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
PUSHING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY CUMULUS
CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE WEST HAVE NOT BEEN REACHED. WARMER AIR
WITH UPPER 80S CURRENTLY IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL MAKE IT INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WOULD EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD
EVENING PER NAM KDIK SOUNDING. HAVE MAINTAINED THIS MENTION IN
GRIDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK TO MODERATE H85MB SOUTHERLY WIND
ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AFTER 06Z. ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE 900MB PER KJMS BUFKIT SOUNDING
ALONG WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A H7 SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY. SHOWALTER INDICES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN -2C AND
-4C IN FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT WILL BE A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH WITH MAINLY A WINDSHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST SUNDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER DEWPOINTS/DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH WARM H85 TEMPS MIXING TO THE
SURFACE ALONG WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S SOUTH...AND UPPER 80S NORTH.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON MONDAY.

THE 12 UTC MODEL SUITE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY...WITH A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORMING JUST ON THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY.

FOR MONDAY 12 UTC MODELS ARE PLACING A SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER. WITH THE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EASTERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL BE PLENTIFUL FOR
SEVERE STORMS. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE AMPLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THE THREAT IS THE GREATEST...WITH
PLENTY OF MID LEVEL AND SURFACE BASED CAPE. THE ONLY REAL DETERRENT
OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH HAS
ALSO LESSENED THE CHANCES OF REACHING EXTREME HEAT INDICES IN THE
100S.

DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF MONDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND A SLIGHT RISK HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. REGARDLESS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...12 UTC MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...WITH WPC RAINFALL
ESTIMATES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY RANGING FROM AN INCH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST TO OVER 2 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS NEXT 24HR. HAVE ADDED A VCTS FOR KDIK THROUGH
01Z SUNDAY...AND ALSO MENTIONED A VCTS AT KJMS BETWEEN 07Z AND
11Z SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...WHICH ARE COINCIDENT AT THE KDIK/KJMS TERMINALS AS
MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED UP BY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BETWEEN
10 AND 25 MPH.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...KS








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