Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 130540
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1240 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures again Wednesday cooling to
  seasonably warm on Thursday. A brief rebound on Friday
  followed by near average temperatures for the weekend.

- 20 percent chance of light rain or freezing rain mainly along
  and north of Highway 2 later this afternoon, through tonight,
  and lingering into Wednesday morning. Otherwise, mostly dry
  through the remainder of the week.

- Windy conditions are expected to develop Friday and persist
  through at least Saturday, possibly into Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Brought slight chances for a few drops of light rain into
portions of south central North Dakota where radar echos have
increased in intensity/coverage, though the areas of light rain
are still rather few and far between. Even so, only expect a
couple hundreths at best from any of these little showers.


.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

We are still not seeing any clear evidence of precipitation
reaching the ground yet across the north (where the strongest
radar echoes have been observed) but we did see some brief
drizzle at a site in McLean county north of Coleharbor in the
past hour. Will continue to hold onto a low chance of light rain
and/or freezing rain across the north central and northeast
through much of the night. While dewpoint spreads have come down
significantly here, ceilings are still rather high in the 6 to 9
kft range, suggesting there is still plenty of dry air in the
lower layers.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

We continue to see some light radar echoes and some modestly
lowering ceilings across the north but still have yet to see
evidence that any precipitation is making it`s way to the
ground. Will maintain slight chances of light rain for now as
the HRRR has become a bit more aggressive with bringing some
showery activity into the northwest and north central over the
next few hours. For now, no major changes were needed. We just
blended in the latest observations to the going forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

A passing shortwave will bring around a 20 percent chance of
light precipitation, mainly along and north of Highway 2, later
this afternoon through tonight. It looks like this will be mostly
in the form of rain or freezing rain. Models have continued to
back off on duration and impacts from this. Plus one limiting
factor for impacts is that hourly temperatures concurrent with
ongoing precipitation tend to only drop a degree or two below
freezing. This may help limit any ice accumulations on surfaces.
That said, it only takes a light glaze of freezing rain to
create hazardous travel conditions.

Beyond today, expect cooler air to filter into the area resulting in
a gradual cooling trend through Thursday. Temperatures then rebound
a bit for Friday before a cold front brings even cooler air to the
area for this weekend. Even with this cooler air, temperatures
are expected to only drop to around average for this time of
year.

With that cold frontal passage, fairly strong CAA looks to
produce windy conditions in the northwest Friday afternoon,
which will expand across the forecast area Saturday. Breezy
winds may linger into Sunday. Beyond this weekend, ensembles
hint at dry conditions and a warming trend for early next week.
That said, wide ranges in ensemble temperature spreads suggest
low confidence in the forecast for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

MVFR to localized IFR ceilings will be possible very early
Wednesday morning over north central North Dakota, including the
KMOT terminal. In addition, localized light rain or freezing
rain will also be possible. Conditions will improve as the
morning moves on. Remaining locations will remain VFR. Tonight,
MVFR to IFR ceilings will develop from north to south, affecting
the KMOT and KXWA terminals this evening, spreading to the
KDIK, KBIS and KJMS terminals after 06Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...JJS


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