Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 200000
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
700 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Strong upper level jet is producing a band of showers extending
west to east along and south of the I-94 corridor in southern
North Dakota. Most of this activity is not reaching the ground
but there have been a few sprinkles reported with the stronger
reflectivities, including a trace at both Dickinson and Bismarck.

For the update we adjusted pops slightly farther south and east
with some higher reflectivities from south of Bismarck into the
southern James River Valley. Another impulse is expected to bring
increasing precipitation chances again later tonight to the
southwest and far south central, with a better chance of some
light rain/snow accumulations over the far southwest and south
central.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Light rain across southern North Dakota will likely transition to
light snow later this evening as temperatures fall. Little to no
accumulation is expected. Precipitation will come to an end from
northeast to southwest overnight tonight.

High pressure will seep into North Dakota tonight and with a shift
to a northerly wind Monday will be cooler with temperatures in
the 30s and 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

The next chance for precipitation arrives Wednesday as a weak wave
moves through and we shift to southwest flow aloft. A mix of rain
and snow is expected with no accumulating snowfall.

Temperatures this week will generally range from the 30s north to
40s south.

Models still depict a major storm later this week, but latest
trends keep it south of North Dakota.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

VFR conditions to begin the 00Z TAF period. VCSH at Dickinson and
Bismarck this evening with ceilings generally 5 to 8 thousand
feet. Lower ceilings develop in the southwest late tonight into
Monday morning. Mesoscale models and Bufkit soundings indicate
MVFR ceilings at Dickinson and added a period of MVFR ceilings
from 13-18 UTC. Possible MVFR ceilings moving into KBIS around 18
UTC for a couple hours but will not add this at this time, will
see how things develop out west first. Once winds diminish from
KMOT to KJMS early this evening, generally light and variable
winds at or below 10kts through the night and through the day
Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Little Muddy River north of Williston was rising quickly and was
at around 9.5 feet at 3 PM this afternoon. After coord with RFC we
issued a flood warning taking the river to just above flood stage
later tonight and dropping below late Monday morning. Since then
the stage has fluctuated between 9 and 9.5 feet. The river remains
iced over and rapid fluctuations due to ice action are possible.
Will likely continue the warning through the night due to the
level being so near flood stage and with ice jams possible.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH
HYDROLOGY...TWH



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