Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 290642
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1242 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH...LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING...WILL CONTINUE
OFF TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THUS REMOVED PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH...AND SCALED BACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ELSEWHERE THROUGH 12Z.

SKY COVER WAS INCREASED THURSDAY WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST A
TAD HASTY IN DECREASING SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST NAM/HRRR
BOUNDARY LAYER RH FIELDS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL. STRATUS SHOULD
ERODE SOUTHWEST AND EAST TOMORROW. ALL OTHER GRID ELEMENTS ON
TRACK.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
FILTER THROUGH THE AREA. STILL EXPECT SOME SPOTS OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE SO WILL CONTINUE THAT IN FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE SPREAD PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. A FEW AREA WEBCAMS
SHOWING SOME GLAZE...AND A SPOTTER REPORT NEAR GRASSY BUTTE HAS
INDICATED SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS OF NOW THE 12 UTC MODELS
POINT TO MORE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE
TO NO ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS. FOR NOW COVERAGE IS PATCHY AND WILL
PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

OTHERWISE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GUSTS WERE NEAR 40
MPH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME SEE NO REASON FOR ANY
WIND HEADLINES AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PLACES THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. CLIPPERS ARE PROJECTED
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND TUESDAY...PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS...HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT WILL START MID-MORNING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST FOR KDIK AND EAST FOR KJMS. NORTHWEST
AND CENTRAL TERMINALS...KISN-KBIS-KMOT...ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN STRATUS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN IMPROVEMENT LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...NH





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