Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 251754
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1154 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHALLOW WEAK RETURNS MOVING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA. THE HRRR SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THAT IS COVERED IN THE GOING FORECAST.
HAVE A SMALL CONCERN THERE COULD BE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS..BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE ICE INTO THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LAYER...SO CONTINUE WITH
FLURRIES AT THIS POINT.  TEMPERATURES HAVE MAXED OUT IN MOST AREAS
WITH A SLOW DECLINE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING AS PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC. THE LATEST SHORT
TERM MODELS CONFIRM THE TREND WILL CONTINUE...SO AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH FLURRIES
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO BLEND IN CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO BLEND TO LATEST OBS.
LATEST HOURLY OBS SHOWED TEMPS RUNNING A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH UNDER LOWER CEILINGS. ONLY SEEING A
COUPLE REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING STANLEY WITH ITS
LATEST OBSERVATION. BOWMAN RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW RETURNS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST WHERE HIGH POPS/LOW QPF ARE ALREADY IN PLACE IN THE
FORECAST WITH A DIMINISHING TREND EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THAT AREA WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES TODAY.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED AT THE BORDER OF
MANITOBA/ONTARIO/MINNESOTA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WESTWARD
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NEAR GRAND FORKS TO BISMARCK TO HETTINGER.
A LARGE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS WAS BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND REMAIN OVER THE STATE FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

ATTENTION TURNS TO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE SCATTERED AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSES MOVING EAST IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE ONLY SITE THAT
REPORTED LIGHT SNOW WAS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AT OAKES. FARTHER
WEST A LARGER STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP...AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME EMERGES INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH...AND ONLY THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF NORTH
DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE LIGHT SNOW - NOW LOOKING
LIKE LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE BOWMAN AREA. THUS HAVE LOWERED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...THOUGH KEPT CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER THIS MORNING...THEN REDUCED CHANCES TO SLIGHT CHANCE
THIS AFTERNOON.

THUS A CLOUDY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...AND A CHANCE OF FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.

CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOWS FROM JUST BELOW
ZERO IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL TO THE TEENS SOUTH OF JAMESTOWN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CATEGORIZED BY MOSTLY DRY AND MUCH
COLDER WEATHER. 00Z MODELS AND GEFS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN...INITIALLY SHOWING CUTOFF LOW APPROACHING HUDSON
BAY AND BROAD TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF CUTOFF LOW WILL SUPPORT CHANCE OF
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AND REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR MAINLY SOUTHWEST ND ON SUNDAY
AS FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE STRONG SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WITH 1056MB HIGH CENTERED FROM
MONTANA TO WESTERN ND BY 06Z TUE. SURFACE HIGH TO OUR WEST WILL
SUPPORT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY
HELPING WIND CHILLS REACH VERY LOW LEVELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
SHOWS WIND CHILLS LOWER THAN 25 BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD SEE MAJORITY OF CWA HAVING WIND CHILLS IN 25 BELOW
ZERO TO 30 BELOW RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT THE AERODROMES...WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR BRIEF IFR. PASSING FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM SHOULD BE MINOR. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STARTING
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE TREND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE FROM A NORTHWEST DIRECTION...AND WILL
DECREASE IN SPEED TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...CK






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