Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 160020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
620 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017


Issued at 620 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Main forecast edits were to sky cover based on latest satellite
imagery. Low MVFR stratus a tad farther west than what models
currently have, so increased accordingly. My east and north
central will remain cloudy, still some question how far west the
low clouds will develop tonight with high res models showing a
variety of solutions at the moment. Threw in some ISOLD flurries
across my north central and northeast where a few observations are
indicating such near the sfc ridge axis.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 206 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Several short term forecast challenges today. First, stratus
clouds across the north central and east central are forecast by
short range models to develop back west and south overnight,
ending up close to a Minot to Bismarck line. This scenario seems
reasonable in cool moist low level flow per the GFS h925 level
forecast. Although somewhat uncertain, the shallow cool air
across central North Dakota will favor some light fog formation as
depicted in the CAM models. Used CONSSHORT to place the patchy
fog in the grids late tonight, mainly central sections along the
edge of the stratus. All this cloud and fog formation will make
temperatures challenging tonight, Overall felt temperatures will
drop rapidly this evening over the snow covered areas so lowered
min temperatures about 3 to 4 degrees east and north central over
the SUPERBLEND guidance.

Increasing southerly gradient winds will develop late tonight and
Thursday, with the breezy conditions focused on the James River
Valley by noon Thursday. Used CONSMOS to load the winds, which
has been a bit stronger guidance the past few days. Winds remain
below advisory criteria Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 206 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Thursday night a band of light precipitation will form in a
weak baroclinic zone across southwest into North Central North
Dakota, along the leading edge of a cold front. Sounding analysis
confirms at least a potential for mixed precipitation with rain,
freezing rain and possibly some sleet and snow all possible.
However this should be very brief and light so see little
consequence to any freezing precipitation.

The weekend will see some roller coaster temperatures swings as
the frontal boundary waggles across the region. Saturday will be
cool, but Sunday and Monday warmer by a bit. Overall it will be
dry through the period. Too much uncertainty to speculate about
Thanksgiving temperatures as the GEFS plumes show a wide variation
beyond Tuesday. However the European seem to be milder leading
into Thanksgiving.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)

Issued at 620 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

MVFR clouds will continue to impact KMOT-KJMS tonight till mid
morning Thursday when the clouds are expected to lift for those
locations. Some periods of IFR possible for these two terminals.
KBIS may see some low stratus as well overnight. Otherwise VFR at




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