Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 190211
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
911 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NOT TOO MANY CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE. WE DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
FOR THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AS HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
LINGERED A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. ONLY CHANGE FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST
SOME FOR CLOUD COVER AS AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS PUSH EAST AND SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH REMAINING AREAS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRATUS LAYER ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS
QUICKLY ERODING EASTWARD FROM FAIRLY ROBUST LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SOME AREAS ACROSS THE EAST WILL SEE
EARLY EVENING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
THEN TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH DRY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT. THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN SHOWS A HEALTHY RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS MONTANA THAT
WILL SIGNAL THE START OF A WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

GFS/ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE.
MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK SEES DEPICTS FAST-MOVING ZONAL
WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ALOFT AFTER THE MID-WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASS TO OUR EAST. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS





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