Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 090819
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
319 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

AREAS OF SMOKE CONTINUED TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 4-6 MILES OVER
MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH SOME 3 MILE
VISIBILITIES REPORTED AT TIMES. THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT UPPER
LEVELS...MID LEVELS...AND LOWER LEVELS ON TUESDAY ALLOWED THE SMOKE
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH SURFACE WINDS HAVE
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...LINGERING SMOKE PARTICLES CONTINUED TO
AFFECT THE SURFACE BENEATH THE ESTABLISHED LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE NORTHWESTERLY AGAIN TODAY...BUT
LOWER LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY - THUS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD NOT LINK UP AS READILY - THUS THINKING
THE SMOKE SHOULD NOT BE AS DENSE AT THE SURFACE. BY TONIGHT
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE MORE WESTERLY AND NOT DRAW THE SMOKE
FROM THE FIRES IN NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN TO NORTH DAKOTA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EAST TODAY. AT UPPER LEVELS...NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY SHOULD
BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE APPROACHES THE
DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. LATE TONIGHT AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS MONTANA AND REACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE. ONLY
HAVE A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY FROM THE LOWER
70S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW/MID 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

ON THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN TRICKY DUE TO THE TIMING
OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. COMPACT SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY IN THE DAY...WHILE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN MORE TOWARDS
EVENING WHICH PUTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF MID-DAY STORMS IN QUESTION
WITH CAPPING BEHIND THE WAVE. STRONGER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS MORE
TOWARDS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH AMPLE SHEAR IN PLACE FOR
SUPERCELLS SO IF ANYTHING WERE TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WOULD
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE WILL COME IN THE EVENING WITH FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

FOR FRIDAY...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
INTO THE MORNING FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. CHANCES FOR STORMS
RE-DEVELOP LATE DAY/OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CHANCES FOR STORMS
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS NEXT ROUND OF WAVES MOVE THROUGH...WITH
CHANCES TAPERING ON SUNDAY. QUIET WEATHER THEN EXPECTED TO START THE
WEEK AS REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN NWRLY FLOW BETWEEN WRN CONUS
RIDGE AND LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM WRN SHORES OF HUDSON BAY TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH COOL AIR WILL
WRAP INTO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THIS
SYSTEM WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE SYSTEM GOES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT UPPER...MID...AND LOWER LEVELS CONTINUED TO
BLOW AREAS OF SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND AN INVERSION HAS ALREADY SET UP. THE LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND SMOKE PARTICULATES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS IN AREAS OF SMOKE FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MID-MORNING.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SKC-BKN CLOUDS AT 4000-5000 FEET...BUT
SAT PICS NOT VALIDATING THESE OBSERVATIONS...AND THINK THAT THE CIG
INDICATORS ON THE ASOS INSTRUMENTS ARE DETECTING SMOKE PARTICLES
THAT HAVE CONCENTRATED AT OR BELOW THE TOP OF THE INVERSION.
THEREFORE TAFS WILL REFLECT FEW TO SCT CLOUDS AT KMOT AND KJMS WERE
THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING CU RESIDES.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AREA-WIDE AFTER MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY
AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND VERTICAL MIXING DEVELOPS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV





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