Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 212016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
316 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Winds will subside late this afternoon as surface high pressure
quickly builds west to east over the area. Dry tonight with
light westerly flow this evening becoming southerly over western
ND late tonight ahead of another quick moving shortwave.

Short range models also hinting at some fog development in
the Turtle Mountains. With light winds and Max Relative
Humidity approaching 100 percent went ahead and added in patchy
fog in the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Another shortwave will track along the International border
through Saturday. The latest 12 UTC model guidance has more or
less zeroed in the track. For now chances for rain across the
northern tier counties of North Dakota. On the back side Saturday
night temperatures could cool down enough to see some snowflakes
in the Turtle Mountains. No accumulations are expected.

Cooler Sunday behind the exiting low but dry as surface high
pressure builds over the area. Upper level ridging ahead of an
eastern Pacific trough should provide mild and mainly dry
conditions early next week. The ridge begins to break down by mid
week and several waves may impact the region, bringing chances
for precipitation back into the forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

At noon CDT a cold front was moving east through the region.
Clearing skies and gusty west winds will follow the front. VFR all
TAF sites through the 18z TAF period as winds diminish after 00z.




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