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000
FXUS63 KFGF 120820
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
320 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

WV LOOP SHOWS A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY IS TO OUR SOUTH AND IS REFLECTED IN THE
BETTER CONVECTION OVER SD...THERE IS A DECENT VORT MAX OVER
WESTERN ND. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE SOME MODERATE LIFT OVER
THE AREA UNTIL IT MOVES OFF TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THINK THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP THIS MORNING SO INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDER
MENTIONED UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENCE
SETS IN OVER THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
PLAINS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AND WARM AS RIDGING CONTINUES
OVER THE REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT AGAIN IN
THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS ARE
ALL IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON STARTING TO BRING SOME PRECIP
INTO THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS A SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
CWA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN EXACT TIMING AND WHERE THE
HIGHEST QPF VALUES FALL...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
SOMETHING HAPPENING TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING WINDS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 70S FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE TRACK OF A UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT AND SUN. CHC OF THUNDER AND SHOWERS
AS UPPER LOW SLIDES SE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AS WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ON SATURDAY DRYING THE LOW LEVELS
WITH ANY INSTABILITY PRIMARILY CAUSED BY COLD POOL ALOFT. SFC HIGH
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HI TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL
NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S EXPECTED SAT AND SUN A BIT COOLER MON AND
TUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

MID TO HIGH CIGS JUST SOUTH OF KFAR...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
COULD BE SOME BRIEF MID TO HIGH CIGS OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT ALL
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS INCREASING A BIT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...TG