Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 110434
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1134 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Minor adjustments to sky and temps for high clouds just entering
far wrn ND. Impacts on temps should be minimal...but went up a few
deg west of DVL. Cooled eastern zones to just below freezing.
Winds in good shape generally 5 to 7 mph tonight. Overall no
significant changes to sensible elements needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

For tonight, southwest flow develops aloft and brings in even drier
air, as the remnants of Hurricane Nate pass through the Midwest and
block moist flow from the south. Could see a few high clouds pass
overhead late tonight through Wednesday morning, but such dry air
aloft will keep skies mostly clear. With the forecast area sitting
between high pressure to the southeast and a developing system in
the Rockies, a sustained southerly wind will continue overnight and
through Wednesday for much of the area, except perhaps parts of west
central MN situated near surface high pressure tonight. Expect lows
tonight to be warmer and in the 30s, with highs Wednesday similar to
today in the 50s to lower 60s. Wednesday will be breezier as well
with gusts to 30 mph in northeast ND, due to 850 mb jet influence
developing.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

For the second half of the work week, expect more dry weather
with near normal temperatures. Wednesday night and Thursday will
be warmer with a south breeze and high temperatures reaching the
60s to near 70 degrees. More clouds Thursday, as upper level
moisture increases ahead of a dry front passing through Thursday
evening. Behind the front, expect cooler and drier conditions for
Friday.

Friday night through Sunday...The pattern becomes a bit more active
over the weekend as southwesterly flow aloft transitions into a
significant upper trough moving out into the Plains. The models
agree on the general pattern, but differ in the details. The GFS
continues to be the most progressive with the system, quickly moving
the upper trough off into the Great Lakes, while the 00Z ECMWF is
slower and stronger, wrapping up into a pretty strong low over
MN/WI. The 12Z ECWMF has been coming more into line with the GFS,
but there is still quite a bit of model spread and uncertainty, so
will continue to keep an eye on the system as it approaches.

Monday and Tuesday...Northwesterly flow aloft to weak ridging will
bring more quiet conditions for the beginning of next week. After
the cool weekend, temperatures will return to more seasonal
values.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

VFR. Winds picking up in the DVL area tonight and should decrease
near morning, becoming gusty (SW) again tomorrow aftn. Soundings
showing a decent aftn inversion tomorrow, and with recent harvest
and gusty winds west of valley...could see some hazy skies at
lower altitudes.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Speicher
SHORT TERM...BP
LONG TERM...BP/JR
AVIATION...Speicher



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