Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 231743
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA SO WILL LET IT EXPIRE. THE
PRECIP CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS BEMIDJI AND PARK
RAPIDS...BUT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SFC TEMPS APPROACH OR RISE
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. THINK THAT AT MOST AN INCH OR SO ON
GRASSY AREAS SO WILL KEEP ANY HEADLINES OUT FOR WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AS FRESH SNOW COVER HAS KEPT READINGS A BIT LOWER THAN
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT SHORTLY AND WITH MARCH
SUN WE SHOULD STILL GET NEAR THE 40 MARK...ALTHOUGH NOT ABOVE AS
WHAT WE HAD GOING FOR HIGHS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

SNOW CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. GRAND FORKS AND THEIF RIVER FALLS HAVE STARTED REPORTING
SNOW...BUT THINK THAT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SO WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY AS IT IS AND NOT SPREAD IT FURTHER SOUTH. MADE SOME
TWEAKS TO POPS AND QPF TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

OBSERVER REPORTS 3.5 INCHES 12 MILES NW OF CAVALIER...WITH AT
LEAST 2 INCHES PROBABLY 3 INCHES REPORTED IN CAVALIER BY THE
SHERIFF. SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS IN
THAT AREA BEFORE THE UPPER LOW SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL NEED
TO ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE
EXTREME NORTHERN VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SMALL BUT INTENSE UPPER WAVE JUST NORTH
OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...ABOUT TO CROSS INTO THE STATES.
BURST OF SNOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO HAVE GIVEN THE
CALALIER AREA AROUND AN INCH OR SO OF SNOWFALL (JUDGING FROM THE
WEBCAM). HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE ONGOING
FORECAST OF AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW (POSSIBLY 3 INCHES CLOSER TO
CANADA) FROM THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO THE THIEF RIVER FALLS AREA
BY NOON. ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY FASTER
PROGRESSION GIVEN CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN SHEAR OUT. ADJUSTED POPS/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE LATEST
HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE. THIS LED TO SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN VALLEY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...TO AROUND OR
LESS THAN AN INCH INTO THE THIEF RIVER FALLS AREA BY NOON. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A
WARMER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS (COULD ALSO BE MORE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER
NOON). AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE DRY...WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...00Z MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PAST
RUNS WITH THE EXPECTED STORM SYSTEM. THE MAIN TREND IS FOR MORE OF
A SPLIT FLOW...WITH LESS INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN UPPER WAVES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS QUICKER WITH THE
SOUTHERN WAVE...AND SLOWER WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE. THIS SCENARIO
LEADS TO A MUCH WEAKER INVERTED TROUGH...AND MUCH LESS QPF (IF
ANY). THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A COUPLE DAYS OUT...AND DETAILS WILL
DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN WAVES AND
THEIR INTERACTIONS WITH EACH OTHER. WITH THAT SAID...OPTED TO MAKE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO ONGOING POPS UNTIL MODELS SHOW MORE
CONSISTENCY...BUT DID TREND QPF LOWER. PRECIP STILL LOOKS LIKE IT
WOULD BEGIN AS RAIN...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW BY WED MORNING. WILL
ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WIND SPEEDS ON WED...AND IF THEY ARE
STRONG AND OCCUR WITH FALLING SNOW THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
IMPACTS.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...UPPER AIR PATTERN AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD. LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AMPLIFIES QUITE A BIT THIS PERIOD
WHILE THE LONG WAVE UPPER HIGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA
AMPLIFIES BUT TO A LESSER EXTENT. AT 84 HOURS THE ECMWF WAS A
LITTLE FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
GFS IS THE FASTER SOLUTION. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FARTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND
THE GFS AND ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN DECREASED ONE OR TWO DEGREES FOR THU AND FRI
AND INCREASE TWO TO THREE DEGREES FOR SAT. LITTLE CHANGE ON SUN
FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

SEEING A MIX OF JUST ABOUT ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS RIGHT NOW. FOR
THE MOST PART CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING IN THE MVFR RANGE. THESE
MAY RISE A LITTLE TONIGHT BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT. SOME GUIDANCE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO HINTING AT FOG BUT
THINK WINDS WILL HOLD UP ENOUGH. OTHERWISE KBJI MAY SEE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW YET BUT MOST OTHER SITES ARE DONE WITH IT. SOUTH WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY TUE MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008-
     016.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ004-
     007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...GODON





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