Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 261442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW STRAY SHOWERS POPPING UP THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA...AND THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT
SOME MORE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS TO
SCATTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HIGHS STILL SEEM ON TRACK TO
GET INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

TEMPS PRETTY WELL LINING WITH THE CURVE SO LEFT AS IS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE TEMPS AND
PCPN. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAK
TROF OVER THE RRV THAT IS PRODUCING A FEW POPCORN SHOWERS. OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...WITH NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA THAT WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK
IMPULSES TO CROSS THE AREA. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH TEMPS TODAY
WILL EXCEED CONVECTIVE TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO...AND COMBINED WITH
WEAK LIFT WILL HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A FRONT ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW.
CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
CAPE VALUES APCHING 2000 J/KG...AND SOME SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE IN
PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THICKNESS VALUES QUICKLY REBOUND
RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500 MB PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS
A RIDGE SETS UP INTO WRN CANADA AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL PUT OUR REGION IN NW FLOW
ALOFT. THERE WILL BE THE USUAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES IN THIS
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. NOT UNEXPECTEDLY...LONG RANGE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE POOR AR TIMING THESE SHORT WAVES. RESULT IS A FORECAST WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR PRECIP MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS IN A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH HEATING BUT NOT EXPECTING AT THE SITES ATTM.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPKINS


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