Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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053
FXUS63 KFGF 162020
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
320 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS SEVERE POTENTIAL. CLOUDS HAVE
PLAYED INTO THIS A BIT FOR OUR FA TODAY...PROBABLY MOST FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS OF 20Z THE BROAD SFC LOW WAS LOCATED
SOMEWHERE OVER WESTERN SD. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED OUT TO THE EAST
INTO NORTHEAST SD AND SOUTHERN MN. SEEING SOUTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MORE SOUTHEAST THEN ESE UP INTO THE SOUTHERN FA. TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S.
THIS IS GIVING SFC BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000 J/KG UP INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ND. MUCH HIGHER VALUES OVER EAST CENTRAL SD. NOT THE
GREATEST AMOUNT OF SHEAR...BUT ALSO BETTER SOUTH OF THE FA.
RECEIVED A SWOMCD AT 210 PM DISCUSSING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER UP INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN FA. IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN
GET GOING HERE THIS WOULD BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR A WATCH. THINK
THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL STILL BE IN THE 4-5 PM THROUGH MID EVENING
TIME FRAME DOWN IN THIS AREA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT...BUT AS THE STRONGER DYNAMICS APPROACH ON
SUNDAY THERE SHOULD COULD BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.
THIS TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA AS THE LOW LEVEL AND UPPER JET
PUNCH INTO THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

TEMPS FALL AND WINDS CRANK UP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FA SUNDAY
NIGHT. COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THIS AREA...CURRENTLY
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 INCHES FROM LANGDON TO KDVL. STILL
WINDY INTO MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN FA. FINALLY SEE PCPN MOVING EAST MON NIGHT INTO
TUE.

BEYOND...FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE DOES SITUATE ITSELF ALONG THE NORTH
DAKOTA/MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN BORDERS. THIS WILL BRING SOME
WELCOME DRY WEATHER TO OUR AREA MID TO LATE WEEK. THERE IS A
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRI-
SAT AND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BRUSH
SOUTHERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. 00Z ECMWF WAS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP THAN ITS 12Z RUN. 12Z ECMWF RUN FOLLOWS
DRIER 00Z AND 12Z GFS RUNS. BUT KEPT IDEA OF LOW POPS IN THE
SOUTHERN FCST AREA DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH NORTHERN EDGE OF
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WARMING A BIT BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

TOUGH FCST FOR THE 18Z TAFS.  A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS THIS AFTN
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE MVFR AND IFR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS NORTHWARD.  WINDS WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
SUNDAY...BUT TURN MORE NORTHEAST DEVILS LAKE AREA 12Z SUNDAY AND
AFTER AND INCREASE IN SPEED AS SURFACE LOW IS NEAR FARGO SUNDAY
MIDDAY.  IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION.  HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IN COVERAGE
AND TIMING.  SO FOR THE TIME BEING USED VCTS IN MOST TAFS IN THAT
22Z-04Z PERIOD...AND OVERNIGHT ALL BUT DEVILS LAKE MAY BE IN DRY
SLOT SO UNSURE OF COVERAGE SO WENT VCSH.  MAIN RAIN AREA TO MOVE IN
SUNDAY LATER MORNING AND AFTERWARDS...EXCEPT FOR DVL BASIN WHERE
MAIN RAIN WILL MOVE IN DAWN SUNDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE



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