Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 281358
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
858 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING TODAY AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WE
WILL ADD A MENTION OF THUNDER WHERE WE HAVE POPS. THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY. THERE COULD
ALSO BE SOME THUNDER TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN BAND OF THUNDER
CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE VERY COOL NORTH AND WARM
SOUTH...AND THIS IS HANDLED WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS OVER AN INCH THIS MORNING. A DRIER AIR COLUMN
OVER CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT AND MON ONLY TO RETURN BACK NORTH INTO CANADA ON MON
NIGHT AND TUE...AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. RAIN IS
MAINLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THIS DRY/MOIST INTERFACE. INTERFACE
ALSO ALIGNS WITH 700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH OVER
BC AND ALTA/SASK BORDER RESPECTIVELY. RIDGE/TROUGH PAIR WILL MOVE
EAST AND AMPLIFY A BIT TODAY THROUGH MON AND DRIVE DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA.

RETURN FLOW WILL OCCUR MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE ADVERTISING BETTER THAN 130M HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH THE
AREA. SHOWALTERS BECOME NEG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS OVER AN
INCH. HOWEVER MU CAPES ARE CURRENTLY ANEMIC.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO TEMPS THROUGH 84 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IN THE VICINITY INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES
EXIST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...MOST ACTIVITY WOULD BE SCATTERED
AND LIGHT. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FOG LOOP/SURFACE OBS INDICATED MVFR CIGS WERE LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AREA. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY NOON AND MAY REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS
FAR BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...HOPPES






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