Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KFGF 141734
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1234 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

WILL MAINTAIN FLURRIES/SHSN INTO THE AFTERNOON BASED ON RADAR
RETURNS AND EXTENSIVE CU FIELD AND COLD AIRMASS ALOFT. NO CHANGES
MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

LOWERED MORNING POPS TO JUST FLURRIES AS MAIN RETURNS WILL REMAIN
TO THE WEST OF THE FA. THERE IS A BAND OF CLOUDS ENTERING CENTRAL
FA WHICH HAS PRODUCED BRIEF FLURRIES SO WILL FOLLOW THAT SOUTHWARD
WITH FLURRY MENTION. NO OTHER CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER AND POPS. BISMARCK HAS SEEN SOME
FLUFFY ACCUMULATING SNOW BUT THINK THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND WHAT WE DO GET WILL BE PRETTY
MINIMAL. MORE LIKE FLURRIES WITH A DUSTING AT MOST OF
ACCUMULATION. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS AT SOME SPOTS BUT
THINK THEY SHOULD STILL RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S EVEN
WITH CU REFORMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR FOR MINIMAL PRECIP TODAY WILL BE THE
PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE MAIN AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS INTO MN TODAY. RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW THERE HAS BEEN SOME
LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...AND SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE THIS AREA MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. WHILE
MAIN VORT WILL BE HEADING AWAY FROM US DURING THE DAY...THERE IS
ALSO THE COLD POOL ALOFT. THAT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 20S...WHICH WE SHOULD HIT AND SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE. BUMPED UP POPS JUST A TAD IN THE WEST WHERE
THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE...IT SEEMS PRETTY DRY IN THE EAST SO
VIRGA IS MORE LIKELY. EVEN WHERE PRECIP DOES REACH THE GROUND IT
SEEMS THAT AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

TONIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE COLD AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS AND THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST. KEPT TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT THE
WEST SHOULD SEE SOME TEENS WITH WINDS AND MIXING INCREASING BY
LATE IN THE NIGHT AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER MT. THE SOUTHEAST TO
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP INTO TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY
COLD BUT WITH 850MB TEMPS MODERATING A BIT THE SOUTH COULD MANAGE
TO REACH THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL QUITE A SPREAD AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND
MOST PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER BUT ALSO
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE. THE GEM IS IN BETWEEN...WHILE THE NAM IS THE
SLOWEST AND HAS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP CAMP OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR QUITE A LONG TIME. THE NAM SEEMS OVERDONE AS
FAR AS SNOW...SO LEANED TOWARDS A GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION. THERE SHOULD
BE SOME PRECIP STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A NORTHERN BRANCH DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO
APPROACH. AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM WESTERN SD TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY...AND SOME RAIN MAY
MIX IN WITH THE SOUTH WHICH WILL AFFECT ACCUMULATIONS. FOR NOW
BROAD BRUSHED THE AREA WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...BUT
FULLY EXPECT THIS WILL CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID APRIL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT...BUT 500 HPA HEIGHTS BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS ARE MESSY
WITH THE DETAILS. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW WILL
WOBBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY/FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
POSSIBLE SHORT-WAVE FOR SATURDAY AND THEN BUILDING RIDGE TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS PATTERN...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION BEING SATURDAY WHEN THERE IS A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ALTHOUGH ONLY THE ECMWF DEVELOPS QPF
WHEREAS THE GFS IS DRY. FOR THE MOST PART...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY
THURSDAY (HIGHS IN THE 30S) WITH A GRADUAL WARM-UP FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS FORMED LATE THIS MORNING AND IT SHOULD REMAIN
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO HAVE SOME POPCORN SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE
ALREADY MOVED THROUGH KDVL/KGFK AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTH AND AFFECT KFAR AS WELL. NOT SURE ABOUT THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF
THESE SHOWERS SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY AT KTVF OR KBJI. CUMULUS
SHOULD FADE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF THIS
EVENING. ND TAFS WILL SEE RETURN SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW KICK IN BY
LATER TUE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ONLY A FEW CHANGES MADE TO RIVER FORECAST POINTS TODAY.
THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BUFFALO RIVER NEAR DILWORTH WAS CANCELLED.
SOME MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT BELOW MINOR
FLOOD STAGE. THE FLOOD WARNING ON THE ROSEAU RIVER AT ROSEAU WAS
ALSO DROPPED...AS STAGES HAVE RECEDED BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

OTHERWISE FOR THE MINNESOTA TRIBS...THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK IS
NEAR ITS EXPECTED CREST TODAY IN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...WHILE THE
SNAKE RIVER AT ALVARADO REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

ON THE MAINSTEM RED...BOTH EAST GRAND FORKS AND OSLO HAVE CRESTED
AND HAVE BEGUN A SLOW DECLINE. OSLO REMAINS IN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
AND EAST GRAND FORKS IN MINOR. FARTHER NORTH...STAGES WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY RISE...WITH A CREST AT DRAYTON IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE
MID/LATE WEEK...AND AT PEMBINA OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
APPROACHING MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.

WILL ALLOW THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN WALSH COUNTY TO
EXPIRE...WITH THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAINING FOR AREAS CLOSER TO
THE RED RIVER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/ROGERS
AVIATION...GODON
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.