Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGLD 242331
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
531 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
CANADA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE SLOW TO MIGRATE EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND WILL
PROBABLY ONLY MAKE IT TO YUMA COUNTY. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ON THE
315K SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH 30KT LLJ. PARCELS ORIGINATING AROUND
775MB WILL HAVE 1000-2000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE WITH LITTLE CIN.
AS A RESULT...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY MORNING IN NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA...FROM
MCCOOK TO NORTON...BEFORE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
MORNING. THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY WILL SEE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL STILL
BE BACK IN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
DETERMINED BY WHERE INCOMING FRONT DECIDES TO BE. SATELLITE
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST AS ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER WESTERN
CANADA DIVES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.

AT JET LEVEL...THE GFS AND CANADIAN APPEAR TO START OUT THE BEST. AT
MID LEVELS...MODELS APPEAR A LITTLE FAST IN BRING IN NEW LOW INTO
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE DOING THE BEST. THE NAM WAS DOING
A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE
FIELD. THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE DOING BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

MONDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET APPEAR TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
NIGHT. MODELS A LITTLE CLOSER IN THERE POSITION OF THE FRONT.
THE NAM DOES DEVIATE FROM THE OTHER GUIDANCE BY TAKING THE FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT WHILE OTHER OUTPUT DOES NOT CHANGE
THE POSITION MUCH. THAT MAY BE A RESULT OF THE COLD POOL GENERATED
BY THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH. STORM MOTION WILL BE NEARLY
PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT WITH PWATS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. SO WILL
EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INVOLVED.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT APPEARS TO AFFECT
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NAM DOES BRING THE FRONT BACK NORTH DURING THE DAY
TO A POSITION NEAR TO JUST SOUTH OF ITS POSITION ON MONDAY. MODELS
NOW DO TAKE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE
NAM. OTHERS KEEP IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. CAN SEE WHERE THIS
MIGHT HAPPEN AND AM CONCERNED FRONT MAY BE GETTING TOO FAR SOUTH.

THERE IS STILL A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING THROUGH IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS DO GENERATE AND MOVE LIFT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE POPS BUT NOT AS HIGH AS
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO BOUNDARY POSITION UNCERTAINTY. WITH
STORM MOTIONS STILL PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT AND PWATS
INCREASING TO NEAR 1.5 TO ALMOST 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BECOME EVEN MORE OF A THREAT.

KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THE COOLEST GUIDANCE SEEN.
MAXES ALMOST PROBLEMATIC AND WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH/FAST THE
CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP.

WEDNESDAY...MAIN JET LOOKS TO STAY WEST OF THE AREA. MEANDERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE NOW BRINGING A PRETTY STRONG SHORTWAVE
WITH SOME DIFFLUENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM. SO RAISED
POPS FOR THE DAY TO HIGH CHANCE. WILL ALSO KEEP HIGHER POPS GOING
THROUGH THE WHOLE DAY SINCE MAY HAVE LINGERING IN THE MORNING PLUS
THE LIFT INCREASES DRAMATICALLY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW.

THIS MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE LIFT. PWATS REMAIN CLOSE 1.5 INCHES WITH SLIGHTLY
SLOWER STORM MOTIONS WHICH WILL BE PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIG THREAT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...EARLIER/OVERNIGHT
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL HAD A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SPREAD WITH THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH. THEY ALL HOWEVER DID SLOW
UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH. AT THAT TIME...THE GFS CONTINUED TO
BE THE OUTLIER WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER SOLUTION.

NOW THE LATEST GEFS AND 12Z GFS HAVE DRAMATICALLY REVERSED THEIR
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AND ARE MUCH SLOWER AND CUTOFF THAN BEFORE AND
IN SOME CASES ARE MORE CUTOFF AND SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. THE NEW
GFS IS IN MUCH CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ECMWF AND LOOKS
EVEN MORE LIKE THE NEW CANADIAN.

CONSIDERING THE CONSISTENT GUIDANCE...CURRENT PATTERN AND THESE
LATEST TRENDS...A SLOWER SOLUTION IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY AND
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THIS SOLUTION. AS A RESULT THE NEW
CRH_INIT POPS ARE NOW HIGHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NOW INTRODUCED INTO FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A WHOLE DAY SLOWER IN ENDING PRECIPITATION
THAN YESTERDAY. IF THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE RIGHT THE UPPER LOW IS
CUTOFF ALMOST ON TOP OF US.

IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME THE PWATS
REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. SO THE COOLER AND WETTER
SOLUTION LOOKS TO CONTINUE AND LIKE WHAT THE INIT POPS HAVE GIVEN
ME AND WILL NOT CHANGE.

SATURDAY NOW LOOKS LIKE THE DRY DAY. NEW DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE DATA SUPPORT A FLATTER FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
HAVING A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FAR WEST PORTION OF MY AREA.
HOWEVER IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT...700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE GOING
TO BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER AND POSSIBLY COULD CAP THE AIR MASS. THE
RUN OF THE INIT GAVE ME A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SUNDAY AND FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN KEEPING IT AT THIS TIME.

ALSO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING COULD
LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AFTER 06Z. AT KGLD...STORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY BEFORE ADVERTISED 05Z TIME IN TAF. DID
NOT PREVAIL TSRA AT KGLD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON STORM INITIATION
LOCATION. AT KMCK...FAIRLY CONFIDENT STORMS MOVE THROUGH SO HAVE
PLACED TEMPO GROUP FOR EARLY MORNING. OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO TSRA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT. AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BY
SUNRISE TOMORROW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...RRH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.