Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 251136
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
436 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS.  SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME A LARGE PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

TODAY THE PLUME WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON CAUSING
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.  DESPITE THE SATURATED ENVIRONMENT THERE
WILL BE MINIMAL LIFT TO WORK WITH AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAIRLY
STABLE SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

WINDS WILL AGAIN BE BREEZY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH CAUSING THE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE BEHIND THE TROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS FIRST OVER YUMA COUNTY THEN SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS.  THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
STABLE...WITH THETA-E LAPSE RATES IN THE 4-6C/KM RANGE.  HOWEVER THE
LIFT DOES APPEAR TO BE IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE SO HAVE PLACED SOME
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.  THE
STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE OVER YUMA COUNTY SO WILL HAVE
HIGHER SNOWFALL CHANCES THERE.  DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SNOWFALL TO
ACCUMULATE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT.  LATEST MODEL
DATA INDICATES THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH SOONER THAN SHOWN
YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

WEDNESDAY MORNING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT DECLINES AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES OVER THE AREA.  THERE IS A
NARROW BAND OF 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WHICH BISECTS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING UNDER THE 500MB JET STREAK BESIDE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS INTERSECTING THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DECIDED
TO KEEP MINIMAL SNOWFALL CHANCES GOING DURING THE MORNING OVER
MAINLY YUMA COUNTY.  AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  AS A RESULT THE BREEZY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST THROUGH THE DAY CAUSING THE WINDS TO
DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT
NOT AS MUCH WARM AIR AS INDICATED YESTERDAY. THE WEST HALF WILL
HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER THE EAST HALF
OF THE AREA.

THANKSGIVING DAY THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT WITH
LAMINAR NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.  BY MONDAY, THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AS A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.  AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE EAST OF
THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 850
TEMPERATURES INDICATE SUPPORT FOR UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TAFS. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE
TIMING OF THE WINDS STRENGTHENING TODAY AND CHANGING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS WILL
PEAK AROUND NOON THEN GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KMCK MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING BUT SINCE THERE
IS SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL DEVELOP...DECIDED TO LEAVE
IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 211 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY.
MEANWHILE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS HUMIDITIES FALLING TO AROUND 17 PERCENT
FOR AN HOUR OR SO SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 BEFORE HIGHER HUMIDITIES
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. IF THE TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN FORECAST DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL FALL FURTHER. HOWEVER DESPITE THIS DO NOT BELIEVE THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...FS/JTL
AVIATION...JTL
FIRE WEATHER...JTL



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