Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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684
FXUS63 KGLD 232050
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
250 PM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 110 PM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue through
tonight and Sunday. Synoptic scale forcing remains rather nebulous
with only weak shortwave trough rotating around the anticyclone
centered over the Four Corners. A surface trough located from near
Norton to Leoti this afternoon may be the focus for initiation but
so far little evidence seen in visible satellite imagery and short
term models not very supportive either. Better chances may come
tonight with scattered convection coming out of Colorado. Storm
organization will be limited by weak deep layer sheer but cant
rule out an isolated hail/wind threat with stronger storms. As has
been the case lately, expect storms to persist through the night
followed by a lull Sunday morning...then gradually increasing
again Sunday afternoon. Temperatures on Sunday will be slightly
cooler with upslope surface winds...so will let the heat advisory
expire at 00z tonight with no plan to reissue for Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 216 PM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Temperatures are expected to be either near normal or somewhat
above normal through the long term. Forecast focus has been on
trying to identify the periods with the greatest possibility of
thunderstorms and resulting higher QPF.

Westerly flow aloft with embedded short wave troughs remains over
the northern third of the CONUS through the middle of the week.
During the latter part of next week into next weekend the upper
pattern becomes more amplified as the high pressure center aloft
retrogrades over the desert southwest/intermountain region with a
ridge amplifying over the northern Rockies. In response, a trough
axis deepens over the Mississippi valley region. The result is a
few short wave disturbances are expected to move through the
central High Plains region, but will transition from a W to E path
to more of a NW to SE trajectory.

The CR XTNDED INIT (a.k.a. Superblend) POP/QPF grids seems to lag
somewhat behind the GFS/ECMWF during transitional periods. So have
made some blending changes to the init in an effort to try and
compensate for transitional differences and to maintain a greaterdegree
of consistency with the prior forecast.

The periods with the highest possibilities of precipitation are
SUN NT, TUE NT, and FRI NT. Model solutions are at least fairly
consistent in identifying these periods in which the higher POP
and QPF values coincide with the stronger short wave troughs
transition the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1108 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period.
Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms will develop but due
to the limited coverage the chances of impacting either terminal
appear slim. Surface winds will be light but switch to a more
northerly direction behind a surface trough which will move
through this afternoon.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ002>004-015-016-
     029.

CO...NONE.
NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ080-081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...024



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