Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 221721

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1121 AM MDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 241 AM MDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Across the Tri State region this morning...skies are clear with a
light WNW wind over the area. The current conditions are giving the
region temps ranging from the upper 20s thru the mid 30s...coldest
over western portions of the area. With several more hours left
until expect locales to drop further aiding in criteria
for current Freeze Warning in effect thru 14z this morning.

For the rest of today...lee-side trough over the Front Range
combined with H5/H7 ridge axis over the region will give the area a
dry warm day with highs into the lower 70s.

Going into tonight and on thru Tuesday night...H5/H7 ridge amplifies
over the western portion of the country creating a NNW flow. Trough
is replaced by strong surface ridge which noses south after the
passage of a cold front on Monday. Strong gradient winds expected on
the back side of the front. These winds will bring back a cooler
airmass to the area. Daytime highs Monday/Tuesday will be in the 60s
with overnight lows mainly in the 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 229 AM MDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Weak northwest flow will prevail on Wednesday as a narrow ridge is
wedged in between two deep troughs, one to our east and an
approaching trough diving southward out of western Canada.
Temperatures on Wednesday should be able to climb all the way into
the middle to upper 70s across the CWA as this axis traverses the
region during peak daytime heating potential.

Things cool off very quickly late Wednesday night heading into
Thursday as heights fall rapidly in association with the approaching
trough and cold front. The cold front will be completely clear of
the CWA by late Thursday afternoon with temperatures falling sharply
as sunset approaches. There will be a chance of precipitation as the
front quickly pushes clear of the region with rain changing to a
snow or rain/snow mix during the afternoon mainly in the western
half of the CWA. Most areas that have not met hard freeze criteria
will very likely do so on Thursday night as temperatures fall into
the middle to upper 20s.

Strong CAA will continue into Friday with daytime high temperatures
only expected to reach the middle 40s in what will likely be our
coldest air mass thus far this season. Lows will fall into the lower
to middle 20s across the entire CWA Friday night. Below average
temperatures will continue into Saturday with near normal values
expected as we head into Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1020 AM MDT Sun Oct 22 2017

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.
West to southwest winds of 15kts with some higher gusts will be
common from taf issuance through about 21z before becoming west
and subsiding to around 11kts. For tonight winds steadily veer
around to the northwest and by 12z should be 12-14kts. For the
morning hours Monday winds quickly increase with gusts near 35kts
expected at the end of the period.


Issued at 1120 AM MDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Red Flag Warning issued for a few counties along the CO/KS/NE
border through 22z today. The combination of southwest winds
gusting 30 to 35 mph and rh values at or below 15 percent will
continue for another few hours before winds veer to the west and
taper off late this afternoon.


KS...Red Flag Warning until 4 PM MDT /5 PM CDT/ this afternoon for

CO...Red Flag Warning until 4 PM MDT this afternoon for COZ253.

NE...Red Flag Warning until 4 PM MDT this afternoon for NEZ079.



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