Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 292004
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
204 PM MDT FRI JUL 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 200 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2016
Widely scattered thunderstorms are moving southeast across the
area overnight in response to a shortwave trough topping the Four
Corners ridge. These will move out of the area early this morning.
There will be a lull in precipitation chances through most of the
day before the next shortwave arrives later this afternoon with
scattered thunderstorms redeveloping and continuing through
tonight. Instability will be lower compared to yesterday although
deep layer shear remains good at around 40kts. Severe threat
appears to be marginal at best with only limited coverage due to
Upper ridge nudges northward on Saturday which will keep
precipitation chances to a minimum. There will be slight chances
associated with any weak shortwave coming over the ridge in the
afternoon or evening hours...mainly in eastern portions of the
area. Instability and shear continue to be supportive for a severe
threat if anything can get going. Temperatures will be near to
slightly below normal.
More of the same on Sunday with the ridge holding strong but with
weak shortwaves coming through cannot completely remove slight
thunderstorm chances in the afternoon and evening hours. Deep
layer shear will however be noticeably weaker so severe threat
will be lower for Sunday. Temperatures will warm to above normal.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 203 PM MDT Fri Jul 29 2016
Chances for precipitation during the extended period looks favorable
but there are different driving factors to create PoPs. As for
Saturday night, the CWA starts to become engulfed in a ridge that is
moving in from the west. The current NAM model run shows the region
to be dry due to the ridge cutting off the moisture inflow from the
southwestern states. Yet, the GFS has higher precipitation chances,
especially in the eastern half of the CWA. This is primarily due to
the moisture still moving into the region from the southwestern
states and a shortwave moving through the mid-levels. So storms can
not be ruled out at this time.
Sunday through Tuesday, the pattern will be fairly consistent with
the CWA being under a ridge. Embedded mid-level shortwaves are
showing to move over the region each day and moisture from the Gulf
of California will enhance storm potential each day.
Wednesday shows an upper level flow pattern change over the CWA. A
low pressure earlier in the week moves into the Pacific Northwest
and begins to push along the USA, Canadian border. So come
Wednesday, the ridge pushes east and troughing starts to impact the
region bringing with it a cold front. So moisture being pulled up
from Arizona and the cold front pushing through, precipitation
chance are much more probable on that afternoon into the overnight
Thursday into Friday will change patter wise. For Thursday, the
upper level pattern will push the trough east and create a zonal
pattern, for the most part, over the CWA. As the day progresses a
shortwave pushes through and enhances precipitation potential.
Friday will start to see ridging that pushes in from the west. PoPs
are still possible due to another embedded shortwave.
Temperatures will increase into the mid to upper 90s Sunday through
Wednesday and then drop into the 80s Thursday and Friday in the wake
of the cold front.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2016
For Kgld...persistent light rain showers will be near the site for
a few hours. However it should remain vfr during this time.
Thinking now is will be waiting for thunderstorms to not develop
and move from the west until the evening. At this time it looks
like the site will be on the edge of the precipitation so chose to
only put in vcts from 01z to 05z. After 09z am expecting stratus
and fog to develop and produce mvfr conditions from near 10z
through the end of the period.
For Kmck...expect vfr conditions the entire period. Also am
expecting any thunderstorms that develop to not affect the site.