Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 200422
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1022 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ADJUSTED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN BASED ON THE LATEST
DATA. KEPT THE CHANCES A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AT THIS
TIME. LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT PUTTING
A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70
FOR THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH IS STRENGTHENING TODAY...PRODUCING GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH LINE ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO...NORTHWEST KANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...WHILE WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THIS TROUGH LINE WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW CENTER WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.

EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST AS
THE TAIL END OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS NEBRASKA. THE
GFS IS THE PRIMARY PRODUCER OF PRECIPITATION WHILE THE ECMWF AND
NAM ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE AND KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH A DRYER SOLUTION...BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BECOMING SATURATED...ESPECIALLY IN THE CONVERGENT AREA NEAR
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAVE PUT IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.

THEN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN IT`S VICINITY...AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE LACKING
WITH THE UPPER FEATURE DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...BUT WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SUGGESTING ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING HAIL. STORMS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED AND
INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY PUSHED WELL TO THE SOUTH. CHANCE FOR STORMS DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL BE RESTRICTED TO THE FRONT RANGE AND
PERHAPS THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA NEARER THE SURFACE FRONT...BUT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT
NOT WORTH MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION.

UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THERE IS 30-40KTS OF SHEAR FORECAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...SO
CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH CONTINUED GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WILL FINALLY START TO DRY OUT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH
HANDLING OF THE LATE WEEK PATTERN...WITH GFS TRYING TO RETROGRADE
THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM AS IT GETS CAUGHT IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH. THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION SO NOT REALLY GOING TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY
WITH ANY LATE WEEK POPS AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...THEN WARMING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...LOOKING LATEST OBSERVATION AND MODEL TRENDS
WOULD INDICATE A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA
AND MAYBE AFFECTING THE TAF SITES FROM MID EVENING TO LITTLE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CURRENTLY A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINTAINING ITSELF DESPITE
WEAK FORCING. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE THIS CLUSTER WILL
NOT ONLY CONTINUE BUT EXPAND FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME CHOSE TO KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY HOWEVER IF TRENDS CONTINUE AS THEY ARE WILL HAVE TO
INSERT SOME KIND OF MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH TAF SITES. A
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING AND
WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. LATE TOMORROW THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KGLD BUT SINCE SO LATE
IN THE PERIOD WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER



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