Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 110829
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
229 AM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 PM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF FOG FOR THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN FRINGES OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE DRIER
AIR THAT MOVES IN. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE MID/UPPER 60S...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHES OF FOG FORMING. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATE A
COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

TONIGHT...

MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES FINALLY REBOUNDING NICELY FROM THE MORNING
CLOUD-AFFECTED NUMBERS...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AND SEVERAL HOURS OF
DAYTIME HEATING LEFT IN THE DAY. WEAK LOW/LEE-SIDE TROUGH DOES SIT
OVER THE EAST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME...WITH BROAD H5
RIDGE. GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MODELS SHOW WEAK 700MB
TROUGH ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH LEE-SIDE
TROUGH...AND WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH FROM OKLAHOMA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED 2 FACTORS WILL ALLOW THE 700 MB WAVE TO RIDE EAST
ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER OVERNIGHT. 850 FRONTOGENESIS ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COULD TRIGGER A FEW STORMS
BETWEEN 04Z-12Z. THIS COMBINED WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
COLORADO AT THIS TIME HAS ALLOWED FOR 20 POPS FOR WESTERN
COLORADO/NORTHERN CWA ZONES OVERNIGHT. PRECIP-FREE ZONES FOR CENTRAL
SOUTHERN AREA. WITH TEMPS ALREADY A FEW DEGREES BELOW WHAT MODELS
SAY WHAT WE SHOULD BE AT...HAVE UNDERCUT NUMBERS BY A COUPLE DEGREES
IN SPOTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHICH WILL RANGE IN LOWER TO MID 60S.

GOING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ANY LINGERING CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL GIVE
WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES BY LATE MORNING AND REMAIN INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THE AFTERNOON...CWA WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE WNW AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP
ALONG THE REMNANTS OF LOW/TROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. EXPECTING CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO START
OVER NW ZONES AND INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY 00Z SATURDAY. FOR
NOW...STAYING IN THE 20/30 POP RANGE FOR INITIAL START OF
PRECIPITATION. FOR TEMPERATURES...CLEARING PERIOD FROM LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO STRETCH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S...AIDED BY 850 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM +28C
TO +31C W/ BEING ON THE WARM POOL W/ WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA.
SPC DOES HAVE THE NORTHERN ZONE REGION IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WX POTENTIAL .

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE REMNANTS
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE TRI STATE AREA.  THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED IN BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEMS TO START MONDAY...BEFORE THE TRANSITION OF COLDER AIR ALOFT
PUSHES ACROSS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  STRONGER JET FORCING WILL STAY WELL TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

ONCE SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA.  850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL NOT HELP SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  INSTEAD...SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ARE LOOKING TO FALL WITHIN THE MID 70S...WHICH IS ABOUT 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR JULY. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO
THE EAST AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN COLORADO
PLAINS...A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FOR EASTERN COLORADO IN COMBINATION
WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN THE UPPER PROFILE COULD ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GFS AND ECMWF ALSO INDICATE A SOMEWHAT HEALTHY PRESSURE GRADIENT AT
THE SURFACE...BUT WEAK LOW LEVEL JET DOES NOT PROVIDE MUCH WIND TO
BE MIXED TO THE SURFACE.  THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WEDNESDAY
COULD BE GUSTY DEPENDING ON THE POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE FEATURES
AND THE STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.  WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX INTO THE REGION WITH GOOD DYNAMICS ALOFT...THERE WILL BE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BRINGING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S...BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR JULY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR ALOFT
WILL SLIDE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM THE NORTH...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LINE OF MVFR
STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER KHLC TO KMCK AND SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
KANSAS. ANTICIPATE THIS LINE TO REMAIN OVER THE KMCK SITE UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE MOVING NORTH. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
LOWERING SINCE THE STRATUS DEVELOPED...SO AM UNCERTAIN HOW LOW THE
CEILINGS WILL GO. LAST NIGHT THEY DROPPED TO NINE HUNDRED FEET BUT
THAT WAS AFTER A THUNDERSTORM HAD MOVED THROUGH. AM DOUBTFUL
CEILINGS WILL BE THAT LOW FOR TONIGHT BUT DID TREND LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT.  SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO FORM AT KMCK OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES COOL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S. OTHERWISE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE SITE OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT
SUBSTANTIALLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS FOR BOTH
SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL






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