Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 221431
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
831 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

HAVE SENT OUT FORECAST UPDATE TO ACCT FOR AREAL
COVERAGE/MOVEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF CLOUD COVER/PRECIP...NO EARLY
TRW ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN FORECAST
FOR NOW AS DAY PROGRESSES WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SOME CONVECTION
MAY STILL FIRE UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
BECOMING CLOUDY AS THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN. WINDS
ARE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO MID 50S TO
LOW 60S. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EAST COLORADO. ACCORDING TO
LATEST SHORTWAVE IMAGERY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL COLORADO.

FOR THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING...STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. LATEST TRENDS DIMINISHED CONFIDENCE
IN FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WITH ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS...TEMPS
FALLING TOO SLOWLY AND DENSE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN. REMOVED FOG
MENTION FOR THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS A LITTLE IN
DOUBT AS WELL SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES ON WHERE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THIS MORNING...ANTICIPATE SOME
SHOWERS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36. DURING THE AFTERNOON...HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE GFS...EUROPEAN
AND CANADIAN MODELS DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ALONG AND EAST OF A MCCOOK
NEBRASKA TO COLBY TO LEOTI KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...LOWERED POPS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CONFINED HIGHEST POPS EAST OF A LINE FROM
MCCOOK TO RUSSELL SPRINGS. STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500-800 J/KG AND 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES OF 7 C/KM. STORMS QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING...
LIKELY WELL TO THE EAST BY 9 PM CDT.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS
SEEMS IMMINENT. RECENT PRECIPITATION...POOLING DEWPOINTS ALONG THE A
TROUGH AXIS...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALL FACTORS FAVORING FOG DEVELOPMENT...LIKELY DENSE. THE NAM12...WRF
ARW AND WRF NMM ALL INDICATE A WIDE SWATH OF DENSE FOG...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF A NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND TO TRIBUNE LINE. CONFIDENCE IS QUITE
HIGH IN YET ANOTHER DENSE FOG EVENT SO WILL PLACE THIS INTO THE HWO.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF LATE TOMORROW MORNING...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH REST OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...BLOCKING ANY MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE ASSURED...POSSIBLY REACHING AS HIGH AS 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. MAY APPROACH RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES BUT THE ONLY RECORD CURRENTLY FORECAST IS A TIE OF 84
DEGREES AT KITR. OTHER SITES HAVE RECORDS AROUND 3 DEGREES HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

SATURDAY STARTS OUT DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGIN ON SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE
NEW ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS DIFFERENCE REALLY SHOWS UP IN THE SURFACE REFLECTION
WITH THE ECMWFS FROPA MUCH SLOWER ON SUNDAY. CONSEQUENTLY IT IS
MUCH WARMER THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT.

CONSIDERING THIS SLOWER UPPER TROUGH SPEED AND STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INDUCING A STRONGER LEE TROUGH
WHICH WOULD SLOW UP THE FRONT...BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER THAN WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH MY
NEIGHBORS...DID ADJUST SUNDAY MAXES UP A LITTLE...NOT AS MUCH AS
THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE...CONSIDERING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES VALID RESERVATIONS.

SINCE THE ECMWF WAS STRONGER WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH...IT IS
BRINGING COLDER AIR IN BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT.
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF THIS CONSIDERING
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SYSTEM NOT BEING ABLE
TO TAP INTO A LOT OF AIR AT ALL. SO OTHER OUTPUT DID SUPPORT THE
INIT TEMPERATURES I WAS GIVEN NOT ONLY ON MONDAY BUT FOR THE
REMAINING PERIODS. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS HAVE CUT
BACK ON QPF A LITTLE AND THIS COULD BE A RESULT OF THE SLOWER
ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...INIT GAVE ME A
SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND THAT IS REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE ON MONDAY. THE
INIT GAVE ME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH. THAT SEEMS FINE FOR NOW BUT COULD SEE
THE PRECIPITATION FIELD BEING A LITTLE LARGER. NO MATTER WHAT DUE
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST
OF TAF SITES. A FEW MORNING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES AND
A STORM MAY DEVELOP NEAR KMCK AROUND TO JUST AFTER MID-DAY.
OVERALL...LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP CHANCES SO
REMOVED PREVAILING WEATHER GROUPS AND REPLACED WITH VCSH/VCTS. NEXT
AVIATION CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL TOMORROW MORNING. WIDESPREAD
FOG SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF SITES AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE...
APPROACHING BOTH SITES BETWEEN 09-12Z. PLACED A MENTION INTO TAF
BUT THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF DENSE FOG IF FOG IS ABLE TO
REACH TAF SITES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...RRH



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