Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 270210 CCA
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
810 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

EXPIRED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 454 FOR OUR COLORADO
COUNTIES...DUNDY NEBRASKA...AND CHEYENNE AND SHERMAN IN KANSAS.
EXTENDED REST OF WATCH THROUGH 11 CDT TO INCLUDE NORTON AND
GRAHAM. SEVERE TO NEAR SEVERE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG MCS EXTENDING FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO TRIBUNE
KANSAS. STRONGEST PART OF THIS LINE IS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70
WHERE UNOBSTRUCTED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO FEED VERY MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE NORTH. STILL CANT RULE OUT
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS ALONG NORTHERN PART OF LINE...DESPITE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS REMAINING SOUTH. OTHER IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS
BLOWING DUST ALONG GUST FRONT EXTENDING WELL EAST OF THIS LINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

CANCELLED HEAT ADVISORY EARLY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVING
DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE EVENING. DESPITE TD VALUES
ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE TO BE 5-7F LOWER IN EASTERN CWA...HIGH
TEMPS MAY BE WARM ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF ANOTHER HEAT
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS MARGINAL
CONDITIONS...SO WILL ALLOW SUBSEQUENT SHIFT TO ANALYZE NEWEST
DATA/TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ISSUED LOCAL EXTENSION TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EARLIER BY 2
HR AND INCLUDED ADDITIONAL COUNTIES FROM HITCHCOCK NEBRASKA TO
WICHITA KANSAS. BETTER INSTABILITY IS APPROXIMATELY FROM I-70
SOUTH WITH ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-3500 J/KG AHEAD OF LINE.
TRENDS INDICATE MAIN LINE COULD CONTINUE TO FEED ON VERY
MOIST/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH
(ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70). WITH MARGINAL TO WEAK
EFFECTIVE SHEER MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HAIL/STRONG WINDS. AS LOWER
LEVELS STABILIZE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TREND SHOULD BE TOWARDS
WEAKENING OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...SO WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO
DETERMINE IF FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO WATCH ARE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

AS OF 3 PM CDT...2 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM THIS AFTERNOON...
NOW INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS
ARE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING 20 MPH. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE
TROUGH/THERMAL AXIS WAS LOCATED OVER EAST COLORADO. ALOFT...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING IN FROM SOUTHWEST COLORADO. AS THE
SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED IN...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS NOTED ACROSS
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EAST NEBRASKA. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES STORMS ARE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS OVER COLORADO.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION. LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SBCAPE OF 2000-4000 J/KG...LOW AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 8+ C/KM AND DCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG INDICATE AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER. 0-6 KM EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IS 30-40 KTS AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS THE WIND
SPEED MAX SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. BASED ON THIS...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS /SOME SUPERCELLS/ CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT. LATER THIS EVENING...A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL AIDE IN MCS/THUNDERSTORM MAINTENANCE.PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE LOWER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 1-1.5 INCHES BY
EVENING. HOWEVER...ANEMIC STORM MOVEMENT OF 5-10 KNOTS WILL PROVIDE
AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. THIS IS
DEPENDENT ON COLD POOL FORMATION WHICH WOULD CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO
PROGRESS QUICKER. HAVE INCREASED POPS THIS FORECAST RUN AS A RESULT
OF EXPECTATION OF COLD POOL FORMATION AND STORM EVOLUTION INTO A
LARGER COMPLEX.

FOR TOMORROW...ANOTHER BOUT OF FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...WITH BOUNTIFUL CONVECTION AND REMNANT CLOUD COVER
ANTICIPATED...AM UNSURE ON DEGREE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THUS
FOG POTENTIAL. IF FOG WERE TO DEVELOP...THE PRIME LOCATIONS WOULD BE
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DURING THE DAY...A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM
THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE MUCH FARTHER
NORTH...OVER WYOMING AND MONTANA. SOME ENERGY WILL EXTEND SOUTH AND
ALLOW STORMS TO FIRE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR APPEARS
RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE WHILE THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE.
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. CAN`T RULE OUT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING BUT LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND FASTER
STORM MOVEMENT MAY MITIGATE THE THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT
MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ON
TUESDAY AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW BRINGS A
COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL
AID IN THE DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THAT WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S
ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY
WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEEPENING DURING THE DAY THAT REMAINS IN
PLACE NEAR THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS RETROGRADES WEST AND
EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
AND EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER AS A RESULT WITH HIGHS INCREASING
WELL INTO THE 90S BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS...AND WILL BE IMPACTING KGLD WITH POSSIBLE LARGE
HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND STRONG WINDS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
TAF PERIOD. A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE IN HOW STRONG IT IS AS IT
MOVES TOWARDS KMCK...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING/EARLY MONDAY MORNING PERIOD.
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AROUND 12Z MONDAY. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE
IN CIG HEIGHTS DUE TO INCREASING BL WINDS AND ORIENTATION OF MEAN
FLOW FROM THE SOUTH (LOWER MOISTURE THAN IN THE EAST). I KEPT
CONDITIONS ABOVE IFR AT KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DR


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