Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 161131
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
531 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SOME GOOD
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL LONG
TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY.  AT THE SURFACE A
DRY LINE WILL BE IN PLACE NEAR THE CO/KS LINE AHEAD OF A SURFACE
LOW.  DURING THE AFTERNOON A 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE DRY LINE...CAUSING STORMS TO DEVELOP.  THE STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY
EAST OF THE DRY LINE INCREASES AND LIFT STRENGTHENS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE 700MB TROUGH.  THE
STORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WOULD LIKE
TO HAVE GONE HIGHER WITH THE RAINFALL CHANCES FOR SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS STILL THREE DAYS
AWAY AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE 700MB TROUGH MAY CHANGE BEFORE
SATURDAY ARRIVES.

MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING
LONG WAVE TROUGH.  HOWEVER MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE.  AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO...SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.  BY THE EVENING THE TROUGH WILL FILL CAUSING STORMS
THAT DEVELOP TO END.  THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.

TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA.  THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SOME GOOD
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL LONG
TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY.  AT THE SURFACE A
DRY LINE WILL BE IN PLACE NEAR THE CO/KS LINE AHEAD OF A SURFACE
LOW.  DURING THE AFTERNOON A 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE DRY LINE...CAUSING STORMS TO DEVELOP.  THE STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY
EAST OF THE DRY LINE INCREASES AND LIFT STRENGTHENS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE 700MB TROUGH.  THE
STORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WOULD LIKE
TO HAVE GONE HIGHER WITH THE RAINFALL CHANCES FOR SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS STILL THREE DAYS
AWAY AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE 700MB TROUGH MAY CHANGE BEFORE
SATURDAY ARRIVES.

MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING
LONG WAVE TROUGH.  HOWEVER MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE.  AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO...SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.  BY THE EVENING THE TROUGH WILL FILL CAUSING STORMS
THAT DEVELOP TO END.  THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.

TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA.  THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL ONLY A MINOR IMPACTS OF
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT PRECEDING THE
STORM WILL BRING A FEW HOURS OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. KMCK WILL
HAVE SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STRATUS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...FS






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