Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 231942
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
142 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A NUMBER OF BOUNDARIES ARE ALSO APPARENT
ON THE WSR-88D. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN DRY LINE PUSH WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...THE INTERSECTION OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE NORTH WITH A
BOUNDARY FURTHER EAST WILL PRODUCE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...EXPECT MIXED LAYER CAPES
TO RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/JG EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. SHEAR HAS CONTINUED
TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA...SO CONTINUE TO THINK THAT SEVERE STORMS
WILL DEVELOP AFTER 21Z WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE BIGGEST
THREAT.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. THREE
HOURLY PRESSURE RISES WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...SO WIND GUSTS AROUND 45
KNOTS ARE LIKELY. WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN HALF. A DUST ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT FURTHER WEST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT LOCALIZED AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST WILL OCCUR AS CROPS ARE BEGINNING TO SPROUT IN PREVIOUS
DRY FIELDS. HOWEVER...AIR QUALITY DUST MODEL INDICATES THE POTENTIAL
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR THE SAKE OF SIMPLICITY...WILL KEEP THE DUST
ADVISORY GOING. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 06Z AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. MODELS BRING SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL DRY QUICKLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO
LOWERED POPS MOST LOCATIONS AFTER 06Z.

WEAK 500 MB RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE DEVELOP THURSDAY...SO EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES
FROM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON SATURDAY A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THIS
TROUGH WILL RACE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND INTENSIFY BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. RESULTING
SURFACE LOW WILL FORM NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF KS/CO/NE
BORDERS...GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE COLDER
CANADIAN AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD IN WAKE OF THE LOW...THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP. GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT...AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS PRETTY GOOD CONSIDERING
THE TIME RANGE.

SATURDAY...WARM AND BREEZY WITH CHANCE OF STORMS LATE. IT APPEARS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WARMER BY WAY OF DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF
COLD AIR. WITH THE ADDITIONAL TIME ON SATURDAY FOR DRY AND WARM AIR
TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY DEVELOP.
LATE IN THE DAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS ALONG A WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTH BRINGING WITH IT A SHALLOW TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...THUS RESULTING IN ELEVATED CAPE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK
THERE WILL BE A GREAT CHANCE FOR THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...BUT
WILL LEAVE POPS IN FOR CONSISTENCY.

SUNDAY...BREEZY WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING GOOD AMOUNTS OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE LOW PRESSURE...BUT WITH SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN LOW PLACEMENT HARD TO PINPOINT THE BEST LOCATION FOR
PRECIP...THOUGH NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
THAN FURTHER SOUTH. SUNDAY NIGHT COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DIP TO THE MID
30S IN EASTERN COLORADO...AND THERE IS A CHANCE SOME SNOW COULD MIX
WITH THE RAIN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDY. COOLER AND CLOUDY MONDAY WITH CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS...AND AGAIN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY PRECIP CHANCES FALL OFF AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT COULD APPROACH FREEZING...NOT SURPRISING
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR GIVEN THE AVERAGE LOW TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. BOTH DAYS WILL BE WINDY WITH 40 TO 50 KT WINDS MIXING
DOWN...AND AT THIS POINT BOTH DAYS LOOK LIKE SOLID ADVISORY-LEVEL
CRITERIA /3HR SUSTAINED 30 MPH AND/OR GUSTS TO 45 MPH/ WHILE MONDAY
HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS /1HR SUSTAINED 40 MPH AND/OR GUSTS 58 MPH/
ARE INSIDE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. WHILE PRECIP IS FORECAST OVER
THE WEEKEND...SIGNS ARE POINTING TOWARDS LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS /LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH OVER THE ENTIRE PERIOD FOR MOST SPOTS/ WHICH
MEANS BLOWING DUST IS A CONCERN IF PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT PAN OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A PROBLEM AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH 06Z.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z...BUT A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 00Z. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH 25-35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AT KGLD. THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST WITH THE STRONG WINDS...THOUGH VISIBILITY IMPACTS AT THE
SPECIFIC TAF SITES WILL BE MINIMAL.

ALSO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z. SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HAIL...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL
DECREASE AFTER 03Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-
     028-041-042.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     KSZ003-004-015-016-029.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001-013-027-041.

CO...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     TONIGHT FOR COZ090>092.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ252>254.

NE...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR NEZ079-080.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     NEZ081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MENTZER






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