Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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841
FXUS63 KGLD 280525
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1125 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 233 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Latest upper air analysis shows a deepening short wave trough over
Eastern Colorado.  At the surface a north-south trough was located
near Limon.  To the east a warm front/dry line was located over
Northwest Kansas into far Northeast Colorado.

For the rest of the afternoon, initial thoughts from the update AFD
are still on track.  Have high confidence of storms moving east from
Colorado this afternoon and evening.  Main concern is still the
storm coverage due to the deep mixed layer and large dew point
depressions shown in the soundings despite the fairly high CAPE.
With the dry line moving northeast, instability will fade through
the afternoon, which will affect storm intensity.  The best chance
for severe weather will be east of the CO border where the higher
CAPE will be.  As such storm coverage should increase as they move
into KS. However tornadic development is possible over East Central
CO near the surface trough axis.

Isolated storm development still looks possible for McCook to Norton
as the dry line/warm front move through with an upper level short
wave trough overhead.  Tornadic development will be possible here as
well due to the close proximity of the front/dry line.

This evening the storms will continue across the forecast area.  As
the storms cross the dry line east of the forecast area they should
increase even more in intensity.

There still looks to be a threat for severe storms, with the final
round during the mid and late evening ahead of an advancing cold
front.  Still not quite as confident in the development of these
storms as I am with the initial round that moves east across the
forecast area. This final round may merge in with the broken line of
storms moving east across the forecast area, causing there to be
little distinction between the two.  Any severe storms should be
east of the forecast area well before midnight.

Wednesday will be a similar setup to today regarding an upper level
short wave trough moving across from the west.  The circulation
behind the cold front from tonight will push the dry line back west
across the forecast area.  During the afternoon the upper level
short wave trough will deepen along the dry line.  Mixed layer CINH
is still very strong, but surface based CINH is very low over Kit
Carson/Cheyenne counties in CO.  Am anticipating storms to develop
over these counties or move into these counties from the west due to
surface convergence to the west and the upper level short wave
trough overhead.  Storm coverage should remain confined to mainly
Eastern Colorado during the afternoon.

Threats for Wednesday are damaging wind gusts and hail up to hen egg
size, with the best threat for severe weather over Kit Carson and
Cheyenne counties.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 151 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

The long term period is showing to be an active one with storm
chances almost everyday. Starting off on Wednesday night, storm
chances will continue over the region from the afternoon hours. CAPE
and shear values are favorable for severe storm development. Come
Thursday a trough will move over the region and bring with it
continued storm chances. There will also be a cold front that will
move over the area.

That trough will stay over the region through Saturday morning. Then
northwest flow will dominate over the region. Friday looks like a
lull period in precipitation, but there may be some chances along
the northwest part of the region in association with a brief passage
of a shortwave. Saturday brings another round of storms with another
shortwave moving over the region. Sunday is showing a similar
pattern.

Monday and Tuesday brings a ridge over the region, as well as dry
conditions. There could potentially be some brief pop up
precipitation chances each day.

Temperatures during the period will be in the 80s Thursday through
Saturday. Friday will see a slight decrease into the upper 70s to
mid 80s with the passage of the cold front. Sunday through Tuesday
will see a slight increase into the 90s due to the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1125 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period at both KGLD
and KMCK. Radar/obs support thunderstorm activity continuing to
move within the vicinity of KMCK early in the TAF period before
clearing out. Another disturbance will bring thunderstorm chances
back to NW Kansas and SW Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Coverage is still enough of a question to hold off on prevailing
thunder towards the later half of the TAF period, but this will
need to be considered as we are able to fine tune timing/location.

Other than the gusty winds related to departing thunderstorm
activity early in the TAF period, the rest of the TAF period
should see winds below 12kt prevailing. Thunderstorm activity late
in the TAF period could have the same impact on winds, but this
will be dependent on location/coverage.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...DR



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