Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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938 FXUS63 KGLD 190815 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 215 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms will progress eastward from CO into western KS late this evening and overnight. A few severe storms are possible, mainly between ~7 PM and ~3 AM MDT. - Severe storms capable of producing very large hail and damaging winds are possible in northwest KS and southwest NE Sunday afternoon, mainly between 3-9 pm MDT / 4-10 pm CDT. Latest guidance suggests that the severe weather threat in the Goodland CWA will be isolated in nature (i.e. not widespread). Thunderstorm coverage and severe weather potential increases with eastern extent into central KS. In other words, locations along/east of Highway 283 appear to be most at-risk. - Cooler with frost concerns mid week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 245 PM MDT Sat May 18 2024 Through Noon on Sunday: Southern stream shortwave energy presently located invof the southern CA/AZ border will track ENE across the 4-Corners and central Rockies (tonight) and adjacent portions of the High Plains (Sunday morning). Current and recent runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST suggest that scattered diurnal convection developing along the Palmer Divide this afternoon will progress eastward to the CO/KS border this evening.. continuing eastward across northwest KS overnight. Guidance suggests that convection will increase in both coverage and intensity this evening and overnight.. aided and assisted (presumably) by DPVA attendant the aforementioned shortwave energy (approaching from the SW-WSW) and strengthening low-level (SFC-H85) warm advection over western KS.. when modest (albeit increasing) airmass destabilization and strengthening deep layer shear appear supportive of severe weather.. especially if forcing is favorably/further augmented by convection itself (e.g. an MCV).. mainly in the 03-09 UTC time frame. Wind gusts up to 65 mph, quarter size hail and torrential rainfall appear to be the primary hazards. Sun PM-Sun night: Challenging forecast. Early morning convection may significantly alter environmental conditions over the Tri-State area during the day on Sunday, esp. in a pattern characterized by a rather weak/broad/ill-consolidated lee cyclone in southeast CO. Latest available guidance indicates a scenario characterized by little/low convective coverage over northwest KS and southwest NE Sunday afternoon, suggesting that severe weather in the Goodland CWA may be isolated in nature (i.e. not widespread).. and largely confined to the 21-03 UTC time frame. Very large hail and damaging winds appear to be the primary hazard(s). Broadly speaking, guidance continues to indicate that convective coverage and severe weather potential increases with eastern extent into central KS. In other words, locations along/east of Highway 283 appear to be most at-risk. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 215 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024 Broad southwesterly flow continues across the central CONUS through the entire long term period. Embedded shortwave troughs will provide near daily chances for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Severe chances appear rather limited however, mainly due to a lack of instability. The one exception might be Thursday, with decent moisture return resulting in instability of 1000-2000 j/kg by the afternoon. However, Thursday is also the day with the lowest deep layer shear, 20-30 kts, so that may limit any severe potential. For Wednesday and Friday, very little instability, either surface based or elevated, is forecast for the area. There is some weak instability by Saturday, along with very good deep layer shear, which may result in low probabilities for severe storms. Temperatures through the period show some minor fluctuations associated with occasional frontal passages. The coolest day will be Wednesday with lower 70s, and the warmest will be Thursday with low to mid 80s, then 70s and 80s for Friday and Saturday. Some patchy frost possible Wednesday morning in Colorado with upper 30s currently forecast for lows. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1056 PM MDT Sat May 18 2024 For KGLD... VFR conditions are forecast through most of the period. Will need to watch for some potential MVFR or IFR ceilings as there could be some moisture moving in and saturating the lowest 2000ft. Chances have decreased compared to the prior TAF forecast so have opted for only MVFR ceilings at this time. Otherwise, storms are forecast to move near or over the terminal during the late afternoon hours. Storms may just form over the terminal so will need to watch the 21Z-02Z timeframe. Severe weather is also possible with large hail and damaging wind gusts. For KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through most of the period. Showers and storms will remain possible through the first 9 hours of the period as guidance suggests that a boundary on the back side of the current line may spark more storms close to 12Z. With the moisture in the area, ceilings could still drop to MVFR levels around 09Z. The ceilings and any lingering shower/storms should clear by the late morning hours. Around 00Z, will need to watch for more storms, though guidance has been favoring tracks away from the terminal. However, if a storm did form or move over the terminal, it could be severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BV LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...024