Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 261728
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1028 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. BASED ON AN
ANALYSIS OF FORECAST RAP SOUNDINGS...SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE A LAYER OF DRY AIR BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS BY INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP AND MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF/SNOW GRIDS. EARLIER HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH
ICY ROADS SHOULD NO LONGER BE AN ISSUE AS SOME SUN HAS REACHED THE
GROUND AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A BAND OF CLOUDS
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA. MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
IS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. AS SUNRISE APPROACHES ANTICIPATE THE
SNOWFALL TO DISSIPATE TOWARD THE WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING THE TROUGH
AXIS. SNOWFALL SHOULD BE COMPLETELY WEST OF THE AREA BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.

TODAY THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BREAKUP AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
AREA TODAY BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE GENERALLY TOO
LARGE FOR ANY PRECIP. TO BE GENERATED FROM THE MEAGER LIFT SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE DAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION THAT FOLLOWS THE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA...SO HAVE
COOLED HIGHS TODAY AS A RESULT.

TONIGHT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  LOWS WILL BE
COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT DESPITE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWER DEW POINTS THAN LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 235 AM
MST WED NOV 26 2014

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE WEST.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER
THE AREA...BUT DUE TO THE DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS WITH EACH TROUGH PASSAGE.

ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  A RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. THE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESIDE
OVER EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
DRY AND MILD THROUGH THIS PERIOD SINCE THE RIDGE WILL SHUNT STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.

850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARMUP TO THE UPPER 50S TUESDAY.  MIN
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS WITH SOME SNOW IS MOVING TOWARDS KGLD AT
1700Z. MVFR STRATUS HAS REACHED TAF SITE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW. CEILINGS AT KGLD SHOULD IMPROVE
BY 2100Z. CLOUD DECK AROUND 5000 FT REACHES KMCK THIS AFTERNOON
WITH NO SNOW ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WINDS WEAKEN TODAY AND AFTER A
PERIOD OF LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING...WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AT
KGLD AND SOUTH AT KMCK AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. SOUTH
WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...FS/JTL
AVIATION...RRH



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