Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 212111
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
311 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED PAST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE DRYING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...BUT CONTINUE TO BE OVER
60 OVER NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES IN KANSAS. THE AIR MASS IS NOT
OVERLY UNSTABLE...BUT MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND
500 J/KG LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE FRONT RANGE...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BRING A FEW
STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 02Z. FURTHER...HAVE INCLUDED SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE FAR EAST WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE
LOW AFTER 06Z EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO OAKLEY
KANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST FOG...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. AN
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AFTER 18Z. SURFACE FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH DURING
THE DAY...PROVIDING MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE BASED CONVERGENCE.
BY 00Z...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM KMCK TO KITR...AND THINK THIS
AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 1500 J/KG EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE
0-6 KM SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH
MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND
1.50 INCHES...EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND THIS WILL IMPACT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING
WARM FRONT...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

PERSISTENT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED
TO OUR WEST...ALLOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH AND BRING
FREQUENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL COME
FRIDAY NIGHT...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
RAIN CHANCES...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXPECTED COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK SO HAVE TRENDED COOLER IN THIS RUN OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

FOR FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MUCH STRONGER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW DISTURBANCES...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING. NORTH
OF THE FRONT...SBCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-
55 KTS AND 0-3 KM SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2 INDICATE SEVERE WEATHER IS
IMMINENT. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR IS CONCERNING AND WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE WITH WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST...VEERING WIND PROFILES AND
HODOGRAPHS INDICATE A POTENTIAL TORNADO ENVIRONMENT. LCLS ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE SO WILL RAMP UP SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE HWO. IN
ADDITION...STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL SO A FLASH FLOODING
THREAT MAY DEVELOP IN LOCATIONS WHERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO TRAIN ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE AND MOVE OFF THE BOUNDARY SO
TRAINING MAY NOT BE AS HIGH OF A THREAT. ONE FINAL CONCERN...MAINLY
FOR SATURDAY MORNING...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BEHIND FRONT AND BOUNTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM HEAVY RAINS...THINKING FOG...POTENTIALLY DENSE...MAY
DEVELOP IF THE SURFACE WINDS ARE ABLE TO SUBSIDE. MENTIONED PATCHY
FOG IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

FOR SATURDAY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES...EAST OF THE
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND MOVE
THROUGH MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE NIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULDNT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS FRIDAY AND
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE WORKED OVER
FROM FRIDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN AS YET ANOTHER STRONGER...SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR SURFACE
SCENARIO IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH A SURFACE LOW TO
THE SOUTH...FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED SOMEWHERE ACROSS WEST KANSAS AND
EAST COLORADO AND POOLING MOISTURE...THUS HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY...ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-
50 KTS IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED SO YET ANOTHER FEW EVENINGS OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK. DO NOT EXPECT
CONVECTION AT EITHER SITE FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS...BUT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AT KMCK AFTER 06Z...AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...MENTZER



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