Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 260735
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
135 AM MDT Wed Apr 26 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM MDT Tue Apr 25 2017
Main forecast issue will be chance of precipitation through tonight.
Satellite showing a slow moving/closed off low over Wyoming.
Satellite and height fall analysis shows the southern end this
trough extending from this low has begun and will continue split off
and dig to the south.
Nam and Ecmwf were doing a little better than the Gfs and Canadian
on the upper level jet. The Canadian and Nam were starting the best
with the mid levels. Other output is tending to have features/lower
heights too far east.
For tonight...a few things to note that required some changes to the
previous forecast. First the 12z DDC sounding show a very deep and
dry air mass that will advecting into the area ahead of the upper
low over Wyoming and southern extension of that low. The southern of
portion of this trough is shown by the model output to be
splitting/cutting off further south and west than indicated
The high resolution output picked on that with keeping the northeast
portion of my area dry through tonight. So removed the pops from
that area. There is still enough mid level lift along with a
secondary/weaker left front jet segment that will affect the
southwest portion of the area from later this afternoon through the
As a result, reduced pops a little over the central of the area.
Maintained or increased pops slightly in the far west per the
output and reasoning given above. Most of the precipitation will
be done by late evening with only a lingering chance in the far
south that will end a few hours after midnight.
For Wednesday...ridging aloft and drier conditions will prevail
across the area for this period. Will have more sun but the air mass
will be cooler. Overall the temperatures will be a little cooler
than what is occurring today.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 AM MDT Wed Apr 26 2017
The long term period will start out with a strong closed low system
sweeping across the four corner states and moving northeast through
the CWA. This system is expected to bring colder temperatures and
precipitation to the region. As the closed low moves towards and
over the region, there will be multiple transitions from rain, to
rain and snow, to snow, and back. With the colder temperatures in
the early morning and overnight hours, that is when snow chances
will be at the highest. Current snow amounts are generally below one
inch, with the potential for up to two inches in far Cheyenne and
Kit Carson counties in Colorado early Saturday morning. This storm
system is expected to impact the region through Saturday and a good
portion of Sunday before ejecting northeast out of the region. It is
worth mentioning that the models are still showing some uncertainty
regarding the exact locations with the highest impacts, and this is
largely due to the expansiveness of the storm. Currently, the EC has
a much larger area of impact due to the closed low being much
larger, whereas, the GFS has a smaller closed low. So impacts could
potentially be limited. This system will continue to be monitored as
the end of the week approaches.
After that large system moves out the area, models are showing a
drier trend Sunday night through the majority of Monday. This is
primarily due to upper level northwest flow moving over the region.
Late Monday night into the beginning half of Tuesday shows another
low pressure system moving out of southwestern Canada. Models are
still showing differences with this system but there is potential
for another round of precipitation.
Temperatures during the period will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s
during the day on Saturday with low temperatures dropping into the
upper 20s to mid 30s. Sunday will warm up slightly into the upper
40s to mid 50s, with continued cold low temperatures in the low to
mid 30s. Monday and Tuesday will be in the 60s.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1057 PM MDT Tue Apr 25 2017
VFR conditions likely throughout most of the forecast period. As
of 5z...stratus has cleared KMCK and should clear out of KGLD
over the next few hours. Anticipate increasing ceilings throughout
the night with clear skies likely by late tomorrow morning. No
precipitation is to be expected as drier air moves in. North winds
may be gusty before dropping off in 3-4 hours. North winds pick
up again with daytime mixing by late morning. Light and variable
winds can be anticipated this evening as a weak surface high
passes over and a Lee trough begins to develop along the Rockies.