Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 241635
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1035 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

WELL DEFINED VORT MAX JUST EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER STEADILY
MOVING EAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE DEWPOINTS ARE RAPIDLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW
TO MID TEENS. THIS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH
DEWPOINTS LOWERING FURTHER THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S PRODUCE RH VALUES IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE. A FEW LOCATIONS WILL BE EVEN LOWER.

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TODAYS GRIDS INCLUDING LOWERING
DEWPOINTS...TWEAKING TEMPERATURES AND ADJUSTING WINDS.

AS FAR AS BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL...NOT EXACTLY SOLD ON IT BUT CANT
RULE IT OUT SO HAVE KEPT IT IN THE FORECAST BUT LOWERED COVERAGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 438 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON RADAR TREND
OVER LAST COUPLE HOURS. PRECIPITATION THAT HAD BEEN OVER EASTERN
ZONES EARLIER HAS SHIFTED EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA QUICKER
THAN EXPECTED...LEAVING A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP COMING OFF THE
FRONT RANGE AS THE REMAINDER OF EXPECTED PRECIP. IN AREAS THAT
HAVE SEEN SOME CLEARING...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED CLOSE TO 32F...SO
HAVE BROUGHT IN MENTION OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS GOOD AND ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S W/ VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION. REGIONAL RADAR STILL SHOWING SOME LIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE AREA. SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THRU THE
ROCKIES AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST THRU THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE CWA SEVERAL MORE HOURS FOR LIGHT -RW AND
EVEN THE CHANCE FOR -TRW. THE CONTINUED FOCUS WILL STILL REMAIN OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BASED ON PLACEMENT OF SFC FRONT AND
MOVEMENT OF SHORTWAVE. IN AREAS WHERE -RW HAS FALLEN...DO EXPECT
SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. WESTERN AREAS WILL BEGIN TO SEE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE MORNING HRS AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST...SO HAVE KEPT OUT OF THIS REGION.

THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY STILL IS THE DRY CONDITIONS THAT
WILL ENSUE AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS THAT WILL PUSH
INTO AREA BY MIDDAY...LASTING THRU EARLY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 20-30 MPH
WITH GUSTS NEARING 45 MPH. MODEL RH VALUES DO DROP INTO THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUANCE OF RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
DESPITE THE RAINFALL SOME AREAS HAVE RECEIVED OVERNIGHT...AREAS WILL
DRY OUT THRU THE MORNING...AND WILL ALLOW FOR BLOWING DUST CONDITIONS
TO SET UP BY MIDDAY. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION IN THE
FORECAST...FOCUSING AROUND HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS BEHIND
EXITING SHORTWAVE.

GOING INTO TONIGHT AS WINDY CONDITIONS ABATE...COOLER AIR PREVAILS
MAKING FOR A NICE EVENING. FOR WEDNESDAY ON THRU THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A COUPLE MORE SHORTWAVES MOVE
DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH EACH OF THESE
SYSTEMS...BUT ONLY ON THE SCALE OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS. ALSO WITH THESE
TWO SHORTWAVES...THE GRADIENT WITH AND BEHIND THESE WILL BE STRONG
WITH LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HINTING AT WINDY CONDITIONS. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR MORE BLOWING DUST TO AFFECT THE AREA...BUT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF DAY FOR PASSAGE AND AMT OF PRECIP. BUT
OVERALL PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME AREAS/PATCHY
BLOWING DUST. HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE MIX FOR NOW AND WILL AWAIT
FURTHER CONSISTENCY IN MODELS TO PUT IN.

OVERALL FOR TEMPS...CWA WILL SEE TODAY AS THE HIGHEST OUT OF THE 3-
DAY DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF CAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF EACH SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVE WED/THURS. 60S LOOK GOOD FOR THE CWA TODAY...STEPPING DOWN
INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS INTO THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL START OFF
IN THE 30S BUT DROP TOWARDS THE 20S FOR WED/THURS NIGHTS. THESE TWO
NIGHTS LOWS WILL BE DEPENDENT OF CLOUD COVER REMAINING OVER AREA FOR
THE PASSAGE OF THE TWO SHORTWAVES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST...PESSIMISM TOWARDS ANY PRECIPITATION HAS
GROWN AS FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS UNANIMOUSLY TRENDED DRIER. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...LATEST RUN NOW HOLDS THE BEST LIFT/FORCING FURTHER EAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE MAY BE SOME INSTABILITY BUT THE
LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE CONCERNING. MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR SOME TOWERING CUMULUS/VIRGA BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

IN TERMS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE THE DOMINANT THREAT THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR EACH DAY...CAN NOT RULE OUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD
OCCUR ON DAYS WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THUS COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THESE DAYS IN PARTICULAR ARE FRIDAY...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON THE FLIP SIDE...THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW
DAYS...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS/RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 10-15 PERCENT.
OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN FOR THESE DAYS IS CURRENTLY NOT SUPPORTIVE
OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS. OBVIOUSLY...FORECAST GUIDANCE IS HAVING SOME
DIFFICULTY WITH THE TIMING OF FRONTS...FORECAST MIXING AND THUS WIND
STRENGTH AT THIS TIME. WITH LARGER FIRES RECENTLY OBSERVED ON DAYS
WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND LIGHTER WINDS OR DAYS WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY 20-25 PERCENT AND WINDS GUSTING 30-35 MPH...EACH DAY
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST NEEDS TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

KGLD...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35KTS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 22Z
BEFORE GUSTS SUBSIDE AROUND 23Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
02Z-08Z BEFORE NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP WITH NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20KTS EXPECTED BY 13Z AND 30KTS OR SO
FROM 15Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SHOULD SEE SKC
CONDITIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
TOWARD DARK. AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY CIGS LOWER FROM THE NORTH BUT
REMAIN VFR. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS FROM
15Z-18Z AND A FEW SPRINKLES ALSO POSSIBLE.

KMCK...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25KTS OR SO FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 00Z WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 11KTS BY 01Z. WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 6KTS FROM 03Z TO 07Z BEFORE VEERING TO THE WEST
AT SIMILAR SPEEDS AROUND 09Z. AFTER 13Z NORTHWEST WINDS GUST NEAR
20KTS THEN NORTH AROUND 30KTS AFTER 16Z. CIGS LOWER BUT REMAIN VFR
AFTER 09Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE SET TO AFFECT THE TRI STATE REGION BY
MIDDAY ON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STILL LOOKING FOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITY READINGS TO DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT BY MIDDAY...THEN
RECOVER BY 03Z-04Z. EXPECTING WINDS TO BE STEADY IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS REACHING NEAR THE 45 MPH MARK AT TIMES...TAPERING
OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...JN



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