Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 100808
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
108 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATE ISSUED TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. DOWNSLOPE WINDS COMING OFF THE FRONT RANGE HAVE INCREASED
TEMPS IN A SHORT TIMEFRAME(GLD NOW 41F)...AND IF IT
CONTINUES...U20S WON`T HOLD. SO HAVE INCREASED THE WESTERN CWA BY
A FEW DEGREES. OVER NEXT COUPLE HOURS WILL SEE IF EASTERN SECTIONS
SEE SAME AFFECT AND WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES. MODELS...EVEN SMALLER
SCALE OUTPUT...IS HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE TEMPERATURE...MOISTURE
AND WIND FIELDS DUE TO THE AFFECTS OF THE LINGERING SNOWFIELD.
FIRST FOR TONIGHT...MODELS TENDED TO BE TOO COOL DESPITE THE
SNOWFIELD. PER TRENDS...BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE...AND CLUSTERING
OF DEPICTED TEMPERATURES...DID MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES.

TODAY HAVE NEAR A 20 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN MAXES. MID TO UPPER 50S
ARE IN THE FAR SOUTH WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S IN THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE IN
DEPICTED TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON IF A MODEL DOES OR DOES NOT
TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE SNOW ON THE GROUND. BASED ON THE BETTER
INITIALIZED LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELDS AND THE RECENT BETTER
FORMING GUIDANCE...MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES...MAINLY UP SLIGHTLY. TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S
IN THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

GFS SHOWS THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR BACKING
INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A LARGE EAST TO WEST TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ON SATURDAY WITH EASTERN AREAS STUCK IN THE 30S WHILE
PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO COULD GET CLOSE TO 60. DRY COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WITH BRIEF GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL WARM UP WITH RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD W/ MAINLY A
SKC-SCT250 MIX. BKN DECK OVER KMCK THRU 09Z. WINDS WNW AROUND
10KTS...WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS FROM 17Z WEDNESDAY THRU 00Z THURSDAY.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE BOTH SITES 09Z-17Z (320-330)/50KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN


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