Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 230500
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1000 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015
SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CONUS.  AHEAD OF THE TROUGH A VAST EXPANSE OF CLOUD COVER CAN BE
SEEN.  SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS HAVE LEAD TO A
CLEAR SKY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS PRESENT OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS FAIRLY DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE AREA.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT CAUSING THE WINDS TO TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND IT.  ON FRIDAY 850MB WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
SURFACE TROUGH...CAUSING WINDS TO GUST TO 30 MPH OR SO DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER DUE TO WAA
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015

FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN AS 576
DM RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE THERE WILL BE A
FEW TRANSIENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE VERY
STABLE AND EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE LATE IN THE FORECAST WITH BREAKDOWN OF RIDGE IN THE WED-THUR
TIME PERIOD AND RESULTING STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...THINK THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME WILL LIMIT
POPS TO THE 10 PERCENT RANGE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S THROUGH THE
START OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES HIGHER IN
THE MON-TUE TIME FRAME AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA. WHILE
THINK A WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND...DEEP NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT HAS ME CONCERNED ABOUT COOLER AIR SNEAKING INTO THE AREA
WHICH WILL PREVENT ME FROM GOING WITH THE WARMEST GUIDANCE VALUES.
STRONG WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS TIGHT HEIGHT
GRADIENT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR MIXING DOWN HIGHER WINDS...BUT DO
NOT THINK THIS WILL POSE A FIRE WX OR HIGH WIND THREAT AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12KTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE EXPECTED THROUGH 09Z BEFORE VEERING TO THE WEST AROUND
10KTS 10Z-14Z. WINDS THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 13Z BY 15Z AND
GUST NEAR 30KTS FROM 17Z-22Z AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. GUSTS
SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z-01Z. CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING AND SOME MVFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 23Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS FROM TAF ISSUANCE TO 09Z
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH WEST WINDS UNDER 10KTS FROM 10Z TO
15Z. SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AROUND 16Z WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 12KTS. START TO GET GUSTS AROUND 25KTS FROM 19Z-22Z WITH
SUBSIDING GUSTS AND OVERALL SPEEDS AFTER 23Z. SIMILAR TO KGLD
CLOUDS INCREASE MID TO LATE MORNING THEN DECREASE QUICKLY AFTER
00Z. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CLOUDS AFTER 23Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...99



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