Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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200
FXUS63 KGLD 180907
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
307 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION RANGED
FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S WITH NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 20 MPH.
LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT PROGRESSED THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS
NOW OVERHEAD WITH ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER CALIFORNIA.

FOR TODAY...PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER IS FORECAST UNDER PERIODS OF
CLOUD COVER. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THIS
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES
PEAKING IN THE 60S. NORTH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER EAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.

AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST TODAY...THE STAGE IS SET FOR
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND A SHIFT IN WINDS ALOFT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTHEAST...GULF MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN PULLED NORTH. MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE QUITE RAPID/SIGNIFICANT WITH A VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPING. PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS APPROACH/EXCEED TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE COLD
FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. NOT ONLY IS ISENTROPIC LIFT
PRESENT BUT SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS SUPPLIED BY THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT OVER
EAST COLORADO...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION PERSISTS THROUGH TUESDAY AND WANES EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN COULD BE MODERATE/HEAVY AT TIMES AS A RESULT
OF THE RICH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT. OVERALL...A PRECIPITATION
EVENT SEEMS LIKELY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH FOR MANY
LOCATIONS.

THERE IS ONE OTHER ITEM TO BE COVERED WITH THIS ANTICIPATED
PRECIPITATION EVENT...TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO POTENTIALLY
30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. COLD AIR ADVECTION RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE COOLED ONCE AGAIN FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES AND FOLLOWED A SIMILAR TREND. FORECAST NOW ADVERTISES
LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH OF A
NORTON KANSAS TO CHEYENNE WELLS KANSAS LINE. CURRENTLY DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SNOW AS THERE MAY BE A WARM LAYER ALOFT SO A COLD RAIN
APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. ALSO...THERE MAY BE SOME
FROST CONCERNS BUT DID NOT WANT TO WIDELY ADVERTISE THAT AT THIS
TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND PRECIPITATION COMPLICATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2015

GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SET UP OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE SW DOWN
INTO WESTERN TEXAS. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE FORECAST AREA A STRONG
EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW(20-30 MPH) THAT WILL LAST WELL INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE ABATING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER LOW INTO
THE PLAINS REGION. THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FETCH IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR
AMPLE GULF MOISTURE TO FEED INTO THE TRI STATE REGION. LOOKING FOR A
STEADY RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS A RESULT. SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO
ALLOW FOR THE AREA TO SEE STEADY...PERSISTENT RAINS BEFORE TAPERING
OFF LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. QPF TOTALS WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM ARE
GOING TO RANGE FROM 0.90" TO ALMOST 1.40"...WITH HIGHEST AMTS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WHERE PRECIPITATION INITIATES AND PERSISTS UNTIL
RIDGE COMPLEX BREAKS DOWN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR
UPPER LOW TO BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS.

WITH THE EXPECTED PERSISTENT RAINFALL...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE
THRU THE TIMEFRAME WHICH IS GOING TO IMPACT TEMPS. LOOKING FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
WITH VERY SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ONLY A FEW DEGREES JUMP TO DAYTIMES
HIGHS IS POSSIBLE AND IS SHOWN OVER PAST FEW MODELS GUIDANCE RUNS
WITH A LOWERING TREND IN HIGHS. SO WILL BE GOING WITH MAINLY
MID/UPPER 40S IN WESTERN AREAS...AND REACHING LOWER TO MID 50S AT
BEST FOR EASTERN ZONES AT BEST EVEN THOUGH THESE LOCALES WILL SEE
PRECIP SET UP LAST. WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTATIONS...THINKING LITTLE
TO NO INSTABILITY TO ENCOURAGE -TRW...SO HAVE REMOVED FROM FORECAST.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE TRANSITION OF BULK PRECIP FROM SW TO
NE ZONES AS UPPER LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LIFT ENE. HAVE CONTINUED TREND
OF ENDING HIGHER POPS IN SUCH FASHION AS A RESULT. A SMALL CORE OF
850MB TEMPS FROM 0C TO 3C(GFS/NAM MIX) DOES MEANDER WNW ZONES GOING
INTO THE EVENING HRS TUESDAY...FOCUSING ON YUMA/KIT CARSON COUNTIES
IN COLORADO. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR MUCH OF WESTERN CWA WILL END BELOW
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...BUT WILL DECENT BUFKIT LAPSE
RATE/OROGRAPHICS...THERE MIGHT BE SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES THAT COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF -SW MIXING
IN WITH THE ENDING RAINS ON BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM TOWARDS 12Z
WEDNESDAY. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY ACCUM WITH THIS AS GROUND/PAVEMENT
TEMPS WAY TOO WARM...BUT NOT RULING OUT A FEW -SW. REST OF CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE 40-45F FOR LOWS.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD DOES CONTINUE TO LOOK FAIRLY
ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THRU NEXT SUNDAY...WHEN THE CWA WILL SEE
ANOTHER POTENT UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECT THE AREA. BEFORE
THIS AFFECTS THE REGION...WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE SOME LIGHT REMNANTS
OF RAIN SHOWERS AFFECT THE REGION FROM EXITING SYSTEM. ONCE THIS
SYSTEM FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION...SURFACE RIDGE DOES BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA...EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
UPPER LOW WORKING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THIS TIME WILL
ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF
RIDGE/EAST SIDE OF ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE
FEEDING INTO IT ON DECENT SOUTHERLY WAA. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE FOCUSED OVER WESTERN ZONES INITIALLY BEFORE AREAL
COVERAGE INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST AS GRIP OF RIDGE SLACKENS.
KEPT -TRW OUT FOR WEDNESDAY BUT PUT IN MENTION OF TRW AS BETTER
INSTABILITY SEEN ESPECIALLY IN AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMEFRAME.

BY FRIDAY...UPPER LOW HAS SETUP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH RIDGE
SHIFTING ENOUGH EASTWARD TO ALLOW FOR TROUGH TO MOVE EAST IN
TANDEM...THUS OPENING UP CWA TO BROADER SCALE OF RW/TRW ON DEEP
SOUTHERLY FETCH. CHANCES FOR RW/TRW WILL PERSIST THRU FRI/SAT BEFORE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES...AND BEGINS TO MOVE PRECIP OUT OF
AREA FROM SW TO NE...ENDING ON SUNDAY WITH WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS ON
BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS ONE GIVING THE AREA FOR POTENTIAL OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORM FORMATION THAT WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL...ETC AND
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS WEEK PROGRESSES...AS ANY MOVEMENT IN
THE UPPER LOW TRACK WILL SHIFT AREA OF CONCERN. LOOKING FOR UPWARD
TREND IN HIGHS FOR LATTER PORTION OF EXTENDED FROM THE MID 50S
WEDNESDAY TO LOW 70S BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
START OFF IN THE 40S AND END IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF KMCK BUT MAY NEAR KGLD FOR THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF
THE TAF. AFTER THAT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTH BUT WILL
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JTL



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