Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 231904

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
104 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 104 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Across the forecast area this afternoon...the Tri State region is on
the north side of a frontal boundary with surface high pressure
building south into the Central Plains. The positioning of the ridge
is currently giving the area a NE surface gradient...gusty to around
20 mph in many locales. Skies are mainly sunny with some high clouds
over the the CWA temps mainly in the 60s.

Going into tonight...ridge moving into the Central Plains will
continue to shift south and east of the CWA overnight...working
towards the mississippi river valley towards Monday morning. looking
for a trend of current NE surface to shift around to SSE flow by
morning. With clear skies overnight and expected winds...CWA will be
looking for overnight lows to range in mid to upper 30s...which is
several degrees above normal.

By Monday...models have surface ridge off to the east with an
amplifying H5/H7 building over the central portion of the country.
This is going to start the beginning of the week off with another
dry day along w/ WAA on southerly flow. The result will be above
normal temps bringing highs into the lower to mid 70s...with warmest
areas in the west.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 228 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016

H5 ridge will build eastward out of the Great Basin as we head into
Wednesday with northwest flow aloft. The axis of the ridge is
expected to remain to our west with its influence extending eastward
through Thursday and Friday, keeping dry air and warmer than normal
temperatures firmly entrenched across the central High Plains. A
shortwave will push across the region Friday with southwest flow out
ahead of the associated cold front. This will serve to bring
temperatures to near or just above 80 degrees on Thursday and
Friday. There could be a fire weather risk for Thursday and Friday
as dew points will be in the 30s in the western half of the CWA with
gusty winds. Cooler air moves in behind the front for Saturday and
Sunday with highs in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees; however this
is still around 5 to 8 degrees above the seasonal average for late


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1103 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016


Precip/Wx....None expected.

Winds........For KGLD...NNE winds 10-20kts thru 03z Monday...then
SSE around 10kts. For KMCK...NNE winds around 10kts thru 14z
Monday...then SE around 10kts.




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