Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 200913
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
213 AM MST Fri Jan 20 2017
Issued at 703 PM MST Thu Jan 19 2017
Several locations now reporting visibility of a quarter of a mile
across the region, so went ahead and issued a dense fog advisory.
Satellite imagery showing the leading edge about halfway into the
Colorado counties and slowly advancing westward, so included
Colorado as well.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 143 PM MST Thu Jan 19 2017
As of 1 PM MST (2 PM CST), temperatures in the mid 30s along a
McCook to Leoti line were sandwiched between temperatures in the
upper 40s on either side. This line is a good indication of where
fog lingered today. Fog that persisted east of the Colorado border
this morning, finally began to lift early this afternoon. Winds have
been light and variable with a lee trough in place. A mid level
system has begun to traverse the High Plains today and appears to be
just east of the region, in central Kansas.
Tonight: The mid level system continues to lift northeast as an
upper trough moves onto the Rockies. There will be little change in
the overall setup tonight compared to last night, so am forecasting
freezing fog to develop once again east of the Colorado border. The
nearly stationary surface trough filters moisture into the region as
it sits over the area. This trough should act as the dividing line
for stratus/fog development versus clearer conditions to the west.
Am thinking fog will redevelop late this evening and persist
overnight. Additionally, cloud cover increases from the west as a
disturbance approaches. Lows will be in the 20s to low 30s.
Friday: Fog should start to burn off by mid morning across the
forecast area, but confidence in exact timing is low at this time.
The mid level system continues towards the Great Lakes, being kicked
out by a shortwave. This disturbance is anticipated to generate
chances for snow showers in the early morning west of the Colorado
border, transitioning to rain as temperatures warm and precipitation
chances move into Kansas and Nebraska during the day.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 212 AM MST Fri Jan 20 2017
The main concern in the extended period continues to be an area of
low pressure that is set to develop on Monday, moving out of the
central Rockies and into the central High Plains on Tuesday. There
seems to be good agreement between the global models with regards to
the track; however, the agreement is not as strong as in previous
runs. The trend has been to a more northerly track, keeping the
primary impacts mainly north of Interstate 70. Precipitation will
begin making its way into the northernmost portions of the CWA
around or just after midnight on Monday with slgt chc PoPs becoming
chc PoPs after sunrise. Ptype will be snow at first with a brief
transition to a rain/snow mix or all rain during the early afternoon
before changing back to snow. At this time, the track is not
favorable for large amounts of accumulating snowfall as the center
of the low is expected to traverse our northernmost counties and QPF
is relatively low for our area. The best chances for accumulating
snow, barring any shift in the track, will be northern Yuma County
and the southwest Nebraska counties. The system will move out of the
area by the middle of Wednesday morning.
The remainder of the week will remain dry as high pressure builds
into the western States with a deep trough developing in the eastern
portion of the country. Below average temperatures on Tuesday and
Wednesday will begin to moderate and approach average values as we
head into next weekend.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1028 PM MST Thu Jan 19 2017
Visibility restrictions in fog and freezing fog as well as low
ceilings will impact operations at both KGLD and KMCK through the
night and into Friday morning. Conditions may temporarily improve
during that time, but for the most part expecting IFR to VLIFR.
Scattered rain and snow showers will move across the region Friday
afternoon and evening, but not expecting much of an operational
impact other than some minor visibility restrictions should one
move directly over a terminal.
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning for
CO...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for COZ090>092.
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning for