Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 201900

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
100 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1259 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

The forecast concerns in the short term period are the hot daytime
temperatures and the potential for some storms to become severe as
isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop and progress across the
eastern sections of the area during the afternoon and evening hours
today and again on Wenesday.

Afternoon high temperatures approaching the century mark with
dewpoints across the eastern half of the forecast area in the lower
60s will produce an unstable atmosphere east of a line from Tribune,
KS to McCook, NE,  CU developing across southwest and west central
KS along and east of a surface trough will spread across north
central KS with scattered thunderstorms expected across the area by
mid afternoon. Some storms are expected to become severe during the
late afternoon and evening with large hail and damaging winds.

Overnight low temperatures stay in the lower 70s around the Hill
City area with lows in the lower to mid 60s across far eastern
Colorado tonight.

Temperatures warm quickly again on Wednesday morning with afternoon
high temperatures expected around the century mark east of the
Colorado border area with upper 90s across far eastern Colorado. The
surface trough remains in place over the forecast area with storm
expected to again develop along and east of the surface trough in
the area of greater moisture and instability during the afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms will again move across mainly the eastern
sections of the forecast area through the evening hours.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 201 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Ridging just west of northern California will help maintain a very
broad trough that will influence the entire northern half of Country
as we head into Friday. Shortwaves will propagate from northwest to
southeast, across the rockies, and into the Plains. A cold front
will push across the region late Friday afternoon with a chance of
thunderstorms across much of the CWA. There will be minimal
instability in place; however, it is enough to allow a mention of a
few stronger thunderstorms as forcing will be enhanced preceding the
frontal passage.

The weekend will bring very pleasant temperatures in the 70s to
lower 80s across the entire CWA in the post-frontal environment.
Both Saturday and Sunday will be much cooler than average with
slightly lower moisture levels. Temperatures and moisture will
rebound very quickly as we head into next week. An isolated
thunderstorm or two will be possible on Monday as a weak shortwave
traverses the region. Very little model agreement is presented
between the global contributers at this point. There will be a
concern of severe thunderstorms on Monday as CAPE very quickly
climbs to over 2700 J/Kg east of a developing dry line that will set
up along the Kansas/Colorado border. The setup for severe
thunderstorms is agreed upon by both the ECMWF and GFS; however,
they are about 24 hours apart with the GFS highlighting a risk for
Monday afternoon and the EC leaning more toward Tuesday afternoon.
For now, staying with a slight chance of storms on Monday
afternoon due to the influence of an approaching ridge, but this
will need to be revisited as new data is made available.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

There may be isolated thunderstorms in the area, storms should not
be part of the prevailing conditions at either MCK or GLD.  VFR
conditions are therefore expected at GLD and MCK through the TAF
period with a strong low level southerly jet to develop
overnight. This southerly jet will produce low level wind shear at
MCK and GLD between 05Z-13Z with winds a few hundred feet off the
surface out of the south at 40kts while surface winds will be
10-12kts out of the south southeast.




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