Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 161111

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
411 AM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 345 AM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

Synoptic Overview: Shortwave energy in British Columbia will dig
southeast into the northern Rockies this afternoon and the
Central/Northern Plains tonight, then progress east across of the
region on Saturday. NW flow aloft (today/Sat) will back to the W/SW
on Sun/Sun night as more substantial shortwave energy digs SSE/SE
ashore the PAC NW. No precipitation is expected across the Tri-
State region through the weekend.

Today/Tonight: Canadian high pressure invof the area this morning
will progress east toward the MS river valley this afternoon/
evening as a lee cyclone develops in advance of the approaching
shortwave in NW flow aloft. Breezy north winds will quickly
subside and become light/variable this morning, then shift to the
south and strengthen (from west-east) this afternoon/ evening as
the MSLP gradient tightens between the departing surface high and
the developing lee cyclone in eastern CO. Expect highs ranging
from the upper 30s to mid 40s, coldest in northeast portions of
the area. Southerly flow may increase to 20-25 mph sustained with
gusts to 35-40 mph for a period late this afternoon and evening,
particularly S/SW of I-70. Expect moderating temps via southerly
flow, with lows in the 20s.

Sat/Sat Night: In the wake of shortwave energy /attendant sfc
cyclone/ progressing across the Central Plains, winds will shift
to the NW and increase to 20-30 or 25-35 mph with gusts as high
as 40-50 mph for several hours late Saturday morning and early
Saturday afternoon (particularly in northeast portions of the
area). Without a cold upstream airmass, expect neutral thermal
advection with highs Sat continuing to moderate, ranging from the
mid/upper 40s to lower 50s (S/SE). Winds will back to the south
and strengthen to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph Saturday
night as another lee cyclone develops in advance of additional
shortwave energy digging ashore the PAC NW, flow aloft backs from
NW-W, and the MSLP gradient tightens over the High Plains.

Sun/Sun Night: Southerly flow is expected to persist on Sunday as
potent shortwave energy digs SSE into the Intermountain West and
the aforementioned lee cyclone deepens over northeast CO. Low-
level warm advection will allow temps to climb through the 60s to
near 70F Sun afternoon in northwest KS, particularly south of
I-70. Further north, high temperatures may be affected by a cold
front progged to surge southward through the Tri-State region late
Sun afternoon/evening. Lows Sun night will be depend primarily
upon cold advection, falling into the teens and 20s Mon morning.

Fire Weather: Adverse fire weather conditions are expected across
portions of the Tri-State region on both Saturday and Sunday,
particularly along/south of I-70.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 407 AM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

Longwave trough will gradually transition from the central Rockies
to the Great Lakes Monday through Wednesday. As the trough axis
passes, it will bring a chance for light snow. Amounts still
appear to be light. Temperatures will be below normal through the
period, with Tuesday being the coldest day with highs in the 20s
and Thursday the warmest with highs in the 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 400 AM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. NW winds at
~10 knots will become light/variable later this morning, then back
to the S/SW and strengthen from W-E as the day progresses. S/SW
winds may increase to 20-25 kt sustained with gusts 30-35 kt for a
period late this afternoon and evening. Winds are expected to
become light/variable once again by the end of the 12Z TAF period.




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