Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KGLD 190753

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
153 AM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

This afternoon/tonight... A continued dry forecast will prevail the
rest of today and into the evening. Water vapor imagery indicates a
shortwave situated just east of the Great Basin at midday, moving
eastward into the central Rockies. HiRes model guidance is
converging upon a solution that would bring the shortwave into the
central Plains sometime early Wednesday morning. For tonight,
relatively calm winds and partly cloudy skies will allow
temperatures to fall into the middle to upper 30s in our eastern
Colorado counties and the lower 40s elsewhere.

Wednesday... The NAM, ARW, and NMM all indicate scattered
precipitation mainly in the northernmost portions of the CWA as we
head into Wednesday morning with the shortwave and the associated
cold front. Much of the shower activity will remain in the Nebraska
counties and areas north and east due to favorable jet dynamics. As
the shortwave moves through our region, an area of high pressure
will build off the southern California coast, tilting the upper flow
pattern northwesterly to significantly increase our CAA going into
Wednesday evening. Highs on Wednesday will reach the lower 60s,
which is about where our seasonal average is for this time of

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 AM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016

An upper ridge looks to be the dominating feature this weekend into
early next week. This leads to dry weather persisting for the large
majority of the extended period.

The ridge progresses onto the Plains over the weekend, with its axis
moving east of the region on Monday. Southwesterly flow then
develops aloft as a trough advances onto the Pacific coast on
Tuesday, bringing some moisture towards the High Plains. Will
continue to monitor how models resolve discrepancies with the trough
as next week draws near, but this appears to be our next shot at

Temperatures generally follow a slight cooling trend during this
time frame. Highs start out in the upper 70s to low 80s on
Saturday and end mainly in the low to mid 70s Tuesday. Lows stay
in the upper 30s to 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1000 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.

For KGLD winds begin the period from the southeast near 10kts becoming
variable around 5kts by 11z as a front begins to approach the
terminal. By 13z winds expected from the northwest in the 5-10kt
range. Winds increase with gusts of 20 to 30 mph from the north in
the 18z-22z timeframe. After 23z winds remain from the north near
11kts. No precipitation expected. There is the possibility of mvfr
cigs in the 15z-19z timeframe. Right now confidence too low to
mention the threat.

For KMCK winds remain light for the entire period. Should see
winds from the east near 5kts gradually backing to the northeast
by 11z then north after 16z. No precipitation expected.




AVIATION...99 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.