Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 271900
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
100 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A WIND SHIFT THAT MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE WIND SHIFT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AT SPEEDS AROUND
10 MPH OR SO. CANT REALLY CALL IT A COLD FRONT AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES PER NAM/GFS/UKMET INCREASE ANYWHERE FROM 3F-7F
COMPARED TO TODAYS VALUES. THIS ALONG WITH AVERAGING HIGHER
PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS ALONG WITH MET/MAV AND 2M GFS/NAM
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 90-95 EAST OF THE STATE LINE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE
LONGWAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL
LOOKS TO BE NORTH-NORTHWEST. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE... TO THE
NORTH... WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG
WAA OVER THE TRI STATE AREA. THIS COULD PRODUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING TO AROUND 100F ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
HAVE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY COOL DOWN TO
THE LOWER 80S BY THE FOURTH OF JULY DUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
STILL CONTINUES AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SEE
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 01Z OR
SO BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SKC
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 02Z-11Z OR SO BEFORE SOME CIRRUS MOVES
OVERHEAD FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL START FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AT SPEEDS UNDER 10KTS THROUGH 02Z BEFORE BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AT SIMILAR SPEEDS FROM 03Z-07Z. AFTER 08Z A CONSTANT AND STEADY
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST...WEST...NORTHWEST AND NORTH EXPECTED
WITH SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...99



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