000
FXUS63 KGLD 160841
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
241 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
PLAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES
SATURDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE LIFT ACROSS THE FA THIS EVENING.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIGHT SO PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE SHORTWAVE
EXITS AROUND 06Z FRIDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE FA.
SUBSIDENCE AND NIL POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FA UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IMPACTS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
CORNER. DYNAMICS JUST CLIP THAT AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. BY SATURDAY THE TROUGH STARTS SHIFTING EAST OF THE
ROCKIES WITH DYNAMICS IMPACTING THE FA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING SATURDAY NIGHT. PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES THIS MORNING OVER A PORTION OF THE
EASTERN FA. SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME STRATUS IN THAT AREA. THE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT HLC IS 4 SO WITH GO WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE
EAST.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY IN
RESPONSE TO 850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 28. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
SECONDARY THREAT OF FIRE WEATHER COMES IN BEHIND THE DRYLINE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OUT TO THE EAST AND/OR DYING
OFF BY MIDNIGHT. THE DRYLINE WILL SLOWLY RECEDE TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN BEFORE SUNRISE AND MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT
MENTIONED FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BECAUSE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT FALL AS FAST AS NEEDED FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
SO STRATUS SEEMED MORE LIKELY THAN FOG.

ON FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AS IT PUSHES TO THE EAST. THE
NAM SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL CAP THAT WOULD PREVENT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER AS THE GFS...CANADIAN
AND EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW AND UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A DISCERNIBLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME...UNLIKE THURSDAY. THE
DYNAMICS DO NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE ON FRIDAY BUT WITH 1500 TO 2000
J/KG OF CAPE...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8 C/KM...LIFTED INDICES OF
-5 TO -8 AND DEWPOINTS NEARING 60 DEGREES...IT IS HARD TO NOT SEE AT
LEAST A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON
FRIDAY. FIRE WEATHER COULD BECOME A CONCERN BEHIND THE DRYLINE IN
EAST COLORADO ON FRIDAY BUT IT SEEMS AS THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT REACH
CRITICAL LEVELS.

ON SATURDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE TROUGH
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000
J/KG...LIFTED INDICES OF -7 TO -9...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8
C/KM...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS AND 0-3 KM HELICITIES OF
200-300 M2/S2. THIS LEADS ONE TO BELIEVE THAT SEVERE WEATHER COULD
BE IMMINENT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. THE
MAJORITY OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TO THE EAST
OF THE REGION AS THE DRYLINE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCE THAT
WAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE
REGION. FIRE WEATHER COULD BECOME A CONCERN BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE DRYLINE AND WINDS COULD
BECOME GUSTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

INTERESTING AND COMPLICATED SET OF TAFS. SPOTTY THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE LOOKS TO STAY NORTH AND WEST OF BOTH TAF SITES. WINDS AT
KGLD WILL BE GUSTY AND VARIABLE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS DUE TO A
GUST FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST. AT KMCK
CONTINUE TO PUT A MINIMAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTION WITH FOG BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS EARLIER.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY UNTIL LATER
THIS MORNING WHEN THEY WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND BECOME
GUSTY. TIMING A LITTLE CLEARER ON THUNDERSTORM ONSET AND LOCATION
BUT STILL MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN NOT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A LATTER
ARRIVAL TIME AND SINCE IT IS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD HAVE
CHOSEN TO HANDLE THIS WITH VCTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...BULLER