Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 202341
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
541 PM MDT Mon Mar 20 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Mar 20 2017
High pressure slowly strengthens across the area. East to
northeast winds of 10 to 20 mph expected tonight with east to
southeast winds around 15 mph and occasionally gusty Tuesday.
Latest model guidance showing saturated boundary layer moisture a
bit further west compared to yesterdays solutions putting it
across much of far eastern Colorado. Fog is possible/expected a
few hours either side of sunrise. Quite a bit of cloudiness
otherwise, mainly mid and high level variety. May have a few rain
showers near the KS/NE border around midnight shifting toward the
far northeast and eastern parts of the area around sunrise.
Chances quickly decrease by mid morning.
Low temperatures in the mid 30s to around 40. High temperatures
in the low 50s except across far eastern Colorado where a few
locations may reach 60.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Mar 20 2017
Tuesday night-Wednesday night...low level moisture streams
southeastward across the area at the beginning of the period while
mid level moisture moves across from the west for the overnight
hours. Stratus increases over the entire area as well. Will have a
chance for showers as a result. For Wednesday precipitation will end
around or shortly after sunrise with only some high clouds during
the afternoon. South to southeast winds increase through the day as
pressure gradient slowly increases. For Wednesday night extensive
low clouds quickly develop across the area leading to a cloudy sky.
Would likely see some drizzle and/or light rain showers along with
fog as a result. Low temperatures Tuesday night in the low to mid
30s and mid 30s to low 40s Wednesday night. Highs on Wednesday range
from around 50 across the east to the low 60s for far eastern
Thursday-Thursday night...12z GFS/NAM and 00z ECMWF have a 555mb low
near the four corners area by the end of the day with a sfc low
organizing near the Palmer Divide and southeast Colorado. By 12z
Friday a 547mb 500 low is forecast to be over southeast Colorado
with the sfc low also in the same location. Will add that the 12z
Canadian model is similar to the above for 12z Friday.
A significant fly in the ointment has developed with the 12z models.
The NAM is indicating a more southeasterly sfc wind in the breezy
category throughout the day which will prevent the morning extensive
low cloudiness to dissipate much. The GFS/ECWMF solutions have winds
from the south and southwest which quickly push the stratus out of
the area from west to east. Many impacts on which scenario is right
including temperatures, dewpoints and subsequent instability and
threat for showers/thunderstorms.
For the overnight hours strong northeast winds develop generally
west of a line from near McCook to Goodland and Cheyenne Wells
while ahead of it winds generally from the east or southeast.
Wraparound precipitation is expected in the same area as strongest
winds after midnight with dry slot across the remainder of the
area. Precipitable waters pretty respectable in the .60 to 1.00
inch range so much needed moisture looks good. 850mb and 2m
temperatures support an all rain event.
Currently advertising highs in the low 70s but are subject to change
per above discussion. Low temperatures range from the upper 30s west
to upper 40s east.
Friday...the vertically stacked strong low pressure system is
forecast to slowly move east through the period. Winds gradually
become northerly from west to east and remain in the breezy to windy
category during the day before slowly decreasing a bit during the
night. Wraparound precipitation shield is a bit slower to exit the
area compared to yesterdays model solutions and remains over much of
the area through the day. Precipitable water remains in the 0.50 to
0.75 range adding additional moisture to much of the area. Will have
to watch the far western portions of Yuma, Cheyenne and Kit Carson
counties for the possibility of snow to mix with the rain as
temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 30s. For the
overnight hours the latest guidance continues to have wraparound
cloudiness (mainly below 700mb) over the area and cant rule out some
additional light precipitation. With 850mb temperatures falling
toward the zero C range some snow is possible.
Saturday...dry weather expected. Clouds slowly dissipate from west
to east during the day before increasing from west to east during
the night. High temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s with lows
in the low 30s.
Sunday...trend is for a negatively tilted upper low to move across
the area during the day lifting northeast into Nebraska overnight.
May have some rain showers during the afternoon and evening possibly
mixing with snow after midnight. Breezy afternoon winds from the
southeast with highs in the low to mid 60s and lows in the low 30s
to around 40.
Monday...GFS/ECMWF both agree on bringing another upper low toward
the four corners/central New Mexico area by Tuesday morning. Should
be far enough away to not impact our weather but the morning could
see some light precip across the far east from previous system.
Afternoon temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s with lows in the
mid 30s to near 40.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 536 PM MDT Mon Mar 20 2017
For Kgld...vfr conditions and east winds around 12 knots will
continue through the night. Around 12z mvfr conditions are
expected to develop and continue through the rest of the day. The
winds at 12z will east northeast at 12z then shift to the east
around 17z. At 20z the winds will become southeast at 16 knots
with gusts to around 24 knots.
For Kmck...vfr conditions are expected through the entire period.
However beginning at 12z and continuing through the rest of the
day, ceilings will be barely above mvfr. East northeast winds near
10 knots are expected through 17z tomorrow. At that time, the
winds will become more east at near 14 knots with gusts to around