Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 171938

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
138 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Issued at 928 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Based on current radar trends and latest model data, have adjusted
pops through this evening. Right rear quadrant of jet is causing
isolated thunderstorms this morning over the southeast half of
the area. After that models are slowing down the arrival of pops
this afternoon. Surface focus is also further west. So pulled the
pops back further west.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Today-tonight...a small pocket of 700-500mb moisture across the far
south and southwest portions of the area early this morning is
expected to slide east (along and south of the interstate) through
noon and dissipate by mid afternoon. Another batch of moisture looks
to reach far eastern Colorado from the west and northwest very late
in the day as a sfc trough approaches. We may see isolated
thunderstorms as a result. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
possible tonight as the weather disturbance and moisture move across
the area. High temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s with low
temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Thursday-Thursday night...dry weather expected as north to northeast
winds bring drier air into the area during the day. Winds veer
around to the south/southwest overnight under perhaps a few mid
level clouds. 850mb temperatures warm about 0 to 3F across the area
supporting mid 80s to low 90s once again. Low temperatures in the
mid 50s to low 60s.

Friday-Friday night...starting to see signs of monsoonal moisture
return flow per 700-500mb moisture around a building upper level
high over Texas. Shower/thunderstorm chances increase in the mid to
late afternoon generally along and east of the CO/KS border and
continue into the evening before nearly exiting the area by sunrise
Saturday morning. 850mb temperatures warm another 3F to 7F across
the area supporting high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s,
possibly a few degrees higher. Low temperatures in the upper 50s to
upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 138 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Monsoonal moisture continues to advect into the central Plains
region Friday night and Saturday as the H5 ridge remains in place
over southeast Texas. H7 trough sets up in the lee of the Rockies
Saturday afternoon, giving us a chance of thunderstorms mainly east
of the Kansas, Colorado border. Isolated strong to severe storms are
possible. For Sunday, the trough remains in the area and with
slightly better instability in place, we could see another round of
isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms mainly east of
HWY 83.

Monday and Tuesday: A theta-e axis will be in place, stretched from
southwest to northeast across the CWA. CAPE remains modest with
relatively weak shear both in the 0-1 km and 0-6 km layers. Strong
to severe storms are a possibility during the late afternoon and
evening mainly along and east of this boundary; however, coverage
will likely be limited. Good instability will be in place Tuesday
but with little in the way of forcing or shear, thunderstorm
development is not expected.

Wednesday and Thursday: A relatively strong shortwave will move
across the region with an associated theta-e boundary and CAPE axis.
Will need to monitor this closely for consistency in the upcoming
days as more widespread thunderstorm development would be expected
with this scenario.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. For Kgld,
thunderstorms should be near the site late this afternoon into
early this evening. Felt confident enough to only put vcts from
late this afternoon into early this evening. Winds will be south
around 10 knots until near 12z when the wind shifts to the west as
a front moves through. Around 14z the wind shifts to the south at
around 10 knots.

For Kmck, again expect thunderstorms near the site around 02z. So
only vcts was put in until 04z. The winds will south to southwest
from 5 to 8 knots late in the night when the wind shifts to the
west at about the same speed. Around 14z the wind will shift to
the north at 8 knots.




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