Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 202020
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
220 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

AS OF 3 PM CDT...2 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS WERE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CENTERED AROUND
BURLINGTON...COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S. ENHANCED/TOWERING CU HAS BEEN NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE ALONG
THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A THUNDERSTORM HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS JUST SOUTH OF THE WICHITA/GREELEY
COUNTY KANSAS LINE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE TROUGH AXIS WAS
LOCATED FROM CULBERTSON...NEBRASKA TO BREWSTER TO WESKAN KANSAS TO
GENOA COLORADO SO SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ALONG AND EAST
OF THIS TROUGH. BASED ON LATEST MESOANALYSIS...SBCAPE OF 1500-2000
J/KG...LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS
WOULD INDICATE THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT. LCLS OF 2000-2500 M AGL WOULD
INDICATE A NON-TORNADIC ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...SURFACE VORTICITY AND
LOW LEVEL CAPE MAY BE ENOUGH TO CREATE A LANDSPOUT TORNADO ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS IF A STORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP ON THE BOUNDARY. HI-RES
MODELS INDICATE THE EVOLUTION OF A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 LATER THIS EVENING SO HAVE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS EVENING IN THESE LOCATIONS.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH THIS
EVENING. WITH THESE STORM MOVEMENTS AND BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
REMAINING TO THE SOUTHEAST...THINKING THAT A HEIGHTENED THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING WILL NOT DEVELOP THIS EVENING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
STILL LIKELY WITH PWATS 1.1-1.3 INCHES BUT THE FASTER STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD MINIMIZE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE EXITED
BY THAT TIME.

FOR TOMORROW...TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FURTHER EAST DURING THE MORNING.
NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND
THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN AND MINIMIZES
INSTABILITY BEHIND THE TROUGH. THINKING THAT SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE POSITION OF THE
TROUGH WOULD LIMIT CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO LOCATIONS EAST OF A LINE
FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO MARIENTHAL KANSAS. A STORM OR TWO COULD
BECOME SEVERE AGAIN WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

OVERALL COOLER AND WET PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

OVERALL THE REGION WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DUE TO AN UPPER
HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION...AND
EVEN SOME GULF MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS AVAILABLE MOISTURE AT
MID-LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WITH EACH PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

SATURDAY...WHILE EARLIER FORECASTS HAD BEEN MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT
LINE UP TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD STORMS. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY...THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS COULD CHANGE OF COURSE...BUT AT
THIS POINT TRENDS POINT TO MORE OF AN ISOLATED WEAK STORM THREAT.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO HIT NEAR 90.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH INCREASE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
LOOKING VERY GOOD WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND
SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OVER A HALF INCH IN SOME SPOTS
BY MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST DURING
THESE DAYS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S IN PARTS OF
EASTERN COLORADO TO LOW/MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNEDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN REGION WILL SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING FOR RAINFALL IN AN ENVIRONMENT
THAT COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THAT WOULD SUSTAIN HEAVY RAIN LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM TUES/WED WILL BE A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH...WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR SOME SPOTS TO
RECEIVE OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST
CYCLE. SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND COLORADO FRONT RANGE. KMCK APPEARS TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS AS SEVERAL HI-RES MODEL RUNS
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH AROUND TO JUST AFTER 00Z.
FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE A TEMPO GROUP AT KMCK. AS FOR
KGLD...SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR JUST EAST OF TERMINAL
INITIALLY. THEN...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS MENTION FOR NOW AS
THERE WASNT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EITHER REMOVE VCTS OR ADD A
TEMPO/FM GROUP FOR PREVAILING THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST ONCE A LEE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...RRH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.