Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
000
FXUS63 KGLD 122346
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
546 PM MDT Tue Mar 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Potential for an isolated severe thunderstormS in eastern
portions of the area (mainly Norton/Graham counties) late
Wednesday afternoon.
- Accumulating wet snow possible across portions of eastern
Colorado late Wed night and Thu, mainly at higher elevations
in far western portions of Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties, where
hazardous travel conditions associated with heavy snow and
breezy (25-35 mph) north winds are possible during the day on
Thu. This includes portions of the I-70 corridor, mainly west
of Stratton, CO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Tue Mar 12 2024
Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are sunny with
temperatures as of 100 PM MDT ranging in the lower 60s to the lower
70s, warmest in the east. Winds are north-northwesterly with gusts
up to 20-30 mph at times.
The main weather concerns in the short term period will focus on the
chance for a few strong thunderstorms east of Highway 83 late on
Wednesday, and the chance for accumulating snowfall for areas
along/west of Highway 27 into Colorado, Wednesday night through
Thursday night.
The current RAP40 500mb analysis is showing a shortwave moving over
west-central Kansas. This system is kicking the surface trough from
yesterday along with it. The result for today has been a steady
northwest flow with gusts in the 20-30 mph range. These winds are
helping to drop RH values, but nothing close yesterday`s numbers
keeping fire wx chances low. Going into tonight, winds will begin to
taper down as weak ridging builds over the area.
Going into Wednesday, the weather focus begins to shift towards the
potential for rain, snow and the chance for thunderstorms.
Surface low develops over southeast Colorado Wednesday morning,
shifting east through western/central KS. Some model differences
continue to evolve as to the exact track of the system, and the
subsequent upper level support. The current consensus from guidance
is going to track the low over SW Kansas then lifting northeast
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. 700/850 lows will track
northwest of the surface low which will allow enhancement of
expected precip over the 48 hour period.
Looking for light rain showers to develop over the area during the
day. Instability on the east side of the low will trigger some
isolated storms towards the evening hours. SPC has Graham/Norton
counties under a Marginal risk for severe w/ hail/wind threats.
Moving to the west, it will be temperatures that will create the
rain/snow defining line at the onset. Current temps working into the
northeast Colorado area are too warm for the overnight period, but
with the potential for moderate precip to occur, soundings suggest a
wetbulb down effect for areas west of Highway 59 should force rain
to transition to snow. 700mb frontogenesis max does work south
through northeast Colorado that could enhance snowfall. Best chances
for accumulating snowfall via ensembles will occur west of the CWA
into the Denver region, aided by upslope effects. The change over
does not occur until after 06z Thursday with a full changeover by
12z. Temps remain too warm to push this any further east past the
Colorado border, but eventually as winds go from northeasterly to
northerly on Thursday any remaining precip will shift towards light
snow. Accompanying this will be a tight gradient with gust potential
into the 35-45 mph range. This could bring about some blowing snow
concerns, but with a wet nature of this snow, have left out for now.
Overall qpf will range from a quarter inch or less in the
east/southeast, up to a half inch in the west/northwest.
Friday/Friday night...any remaining snowfall will taper from north
to the south during the daytime hours as a surface ridge noses
southward from the north central Plains/Rockies. Current guidance is
different on the placement of the ridge axis working into the area.
As a result, looking for 20% chance of light snow showers to be
focused in SW zones before tapering off.
For temps, based on surface low track, daytime highs Wednesday will
range widely from the 50s in the northwest up to the mid 60s for
E/SE zones. Thursday, colder air west will allow for a wide range in
daytime highs with upper 30s west into the 50-55F range from Highway
83 and points east. On Friday, mainly 40s west of Highway 83 and for
points along/east of there 50-55F.
Overnight lows tonight in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Wednesday night,
30s are expected with warmest areas west of Highway 25. Thursday
night mid 20s west to mid 30s east and for Friday night, mid 20s
west to the lower 30s east.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM MDT Tue Mar 12 2024
To start the extended period on Saturday; the region looks to be
between two systems; one low/elongated trough across the SW CONUS
and a stronger more pronounced low/trough across the northern
Plain and Great Lakes region. The main weather influencer looks
to be associated with the northern system.
Saturday, looks to be more a "transition" tranquil day for the
region due to being in between the two systems with near seasonal
highs in the 50s.
Moving into Sunday, Based on pattern recognition, the potential
looks to be there for a breezy to gusty pattern, fully
dependent on far west the troughing of the northern system is to
get. Forecast soundings currently suggest wind gusts around 40
mph; would not be surprised if they were to get at least a
little stronger especially if the center of the low can stay in
phase with the trough and not move further easterly, like what
some guidance. The other feature to watch with this trough as
well is that a cold front looks to move through the area
bringing the potential for below normal temperatures to the area
Sunday night and into Monday. The overall strength of the front
will be dependent on the overall track that the trough and low
do take, but lows in the teens currently look to be plausible.
If a more westward trend with the system does occur then
temperatures may end up colder than that.
The weekend system looks to be fairly progressive as the return
to westerly winds and warmer temperatures returns the area to
start the new work week. Dry conditions currently look to ensue
as well for the area.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 511 PM MDT Tue Mar 12 2024
For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast for both
terminals through the period. The main potential concern is for
rain showers and thunderstorms starting around 18Z. Technically
chances (10-20%) begin around 15Z but become more likely going
into the afternoon hours (30-50%). Otherwise, near surface winds
will be relatively light (less than 10kts) until close to 17Z
when winds shift to be more east/northeasterly and winds start
gusting around 20 kts.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...KAK