Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 271700
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1100 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE TO ALL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST TO REDUCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA NOW THAT THE UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH
EAST AWAY FROM THE CWA TO ALLOW FOR LITTLE AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS REMAINING. THIS FOCUS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THRU THE MORNING HOURS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE
TO GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SLOWLY EXIT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA FOR TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ONCE
MORE AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COUPLE OF
SMALLER TROUGHS THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH DURING THE
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. POPS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
THIS TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL BROADEN AND NEARLY
STALL AS IT WILL BE CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE OF HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL FILL IN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA AS
WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY HOWEVER ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE
SHAPE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US AT THE SAME TIME. THIS H5 LOW WILL VERY
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...PIVOTING WEAK
LOBES OF LOWER HEIGHTS AROUND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE MORE AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY.
THE LOW WILL BROADEN INTO A WEAK TROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH POPS
GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

KGLD...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 19Z OR 20Z
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30-35KTS. FROM 20Z THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AS LOW CLOUDS LIFT QUICKLY
TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH 00Z TO 01Z
BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 10KTS BY 02Z. THIS CONTINUES THROUGH 15Z WITH
A SLIGHT VEERING TO THE NORTH AT 10KTS FROM 16Z THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KMCK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH ABOUT 20Z WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 35KTS. FROM 21Z THROUGH 05Z CIGS
SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INITIALLY GUSTING OVER
30KTS...DECREASING TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 13KTS BY 05Z. AFTER
06Z WINDS SLOWLY VEER TO THE NORTH NEAR 11KTS WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING AFTER 11Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...99


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