Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 240828

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
228 AM MDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Issued at 508 PM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Update to forecast to add in a slight chance for rw/trw over
portions of NE Colorado for the next few hrs. Latest radar
showing precipitation edging slow eastward.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 202 PM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

KGLD has remained precip free today. This trend is expected to
continue well into the overnight period and into tomorrow. After 18Z
pops will increase quickly to accommodate convective initiation.
As the high pressure weakens and shifts to the east, from the
west a mid-level trough will move into our area. This will help
increase instability and, in addition, southerly flow will bring
in moisture increasing pwats. With this we are expecting a
marginal risk for large hail and damaging winds, as well as a more
localized threat for heavy rain and flash flooding Thursday
afternoon/evening. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower
60s with highs in the mid 80s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Sunday and Monday: High pressure will remain in place over the Great
Basin on Sunday with northwesterly flow over the CWA. A weak cold
front will traverse the region during the late evening and overnight
hours with a chance of thunderstorm development along the associated
850mb theta-e boundary. There will be between 1500 and 2200 J/Kg of
CAPE in place; however, weak environmental shear, both shallow and
deep, will limit the potential for severe thunderstorms. The front
will clear the region overnight with cooler and drier conditions
prevailing on Monday.

Tuesday and Wednesday: The ridge of high pressure will slide
eastward, elongating slightly and encompassing much of the central
High Plains. Look for dry conditions as we will be on the eastern
periphery of this H5 high with prevailing subsidence and dry air
inhibiting thunderstorm development. High temperatures will warm
slightly each day but will remain near to just above the seasonal
averages for the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Throughout the remainder of the TAF period, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail at the GLD and MCK terminals. Gusty winds will
diminish after sunset tonight.




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