Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 132215
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
315 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

AS OF 2 PM CST...1 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST AS STRATUS PERSISTS AREA-WIDE. FREEZING FOG IS WANING AS
TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 10 TO 20
MPH...GUSTING 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
WHERE OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE. WHERE STRATUS IS DISSIPATING...
TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY CLIMBED INTO THE 40S. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS WYOMING...
HEADING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NEBRASKA.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW...OVERALL ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION. A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST COLORADO AS SOON AS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
BUT MOST PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TOMORROW
NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT
WILL NOT BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE TRI-STATE REGION.

HOWEVER...THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCES COLD FRONT THROUGH. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...REMAINING MOISTURE FROM TODAY`S FOG AND STRATUS WILL
POOL...GENERALLY ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
IN COMBINATION WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS...ANOTHER BOUT OF
FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE. ADDED PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO THE FORECAST
FOR THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH...INCREASED MIXING
SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE ANY FOG OR STRATUS THAT MAY DEVELOP. A BRIEF
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...AS HIGH AS 15-25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

FOR TOMORROW...ANTICIPATING WARMER TEMPERATURES. DRIER AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. WIDESPREAD OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED CIRRUS MOVES OVERHEAD
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO BECOME
OVERCAST BY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT. THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE THROUGH ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDING IT MONDAY
EVENING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT ON TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER LEE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE TUESDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY APPEAR TO HAVE A DRYER AIRMASS...SO HAVE
KEPT THAT PERIOD DRY.

BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SWEEPS INTO THE WEST
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DEPICT AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH. THIS TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AFTER THURSDAY WITH
THE GFS MOVING THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...FORMING A WEAKLY CLOSED CIRCULATION
THAT JUST CLIPS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES AS
AN OPEN WAVE THAT EXTENDS FURTHER SOUTH WITH A STRONGER VORT MAX
AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
REGION ABOUT MID DAY ON FRIDAY.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE CHAOTIC
UPPER FLOW AS MODELS BECOME SOMEWHAT OUT OF PHASE...BUT STILL
APPEAR TO BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY IF THE FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION ENDS UP PANNING OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY. HOWEVER...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS HOW FAST CONDITIONS
IMPROVE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE REALIZED EARLIER AT KGLD WITH
KMCK AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT. PRIOR TO THE FRONT...
CALM WINDS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FOG/STRATUS. AS THE FRONT PASSES...SURFACE WINDS MAY BE
INITIALLY SLOW TO RESPOND...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FRONT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH


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