Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 012143
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
243 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

COLD AND WINDY DAY TODAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO
REACH THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WHICH ENDED UP BEING COOLER
THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE INDICATED. SUNSHINE...FAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES ALOFT...AND MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT CAUSED FLURRIES/BRIEF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. ONCE THE SUN STARTS GOING DOWN...AIR MASS
SHOULD STABILIZE QUICKLY AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE
BY EARLY EVENING.

WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE RAPIDLY. SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE EVENING WITH A SHIFT OVER TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE NIGHT. SO THE PROBLEM BECOMES HOW MUCH DO THE
TEMPERATURES DROP BEFORE THE WINDS BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO SLOW UP
OR END THE FALL. SINCE MOST GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM TO START OUT
WITH BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
COOLEST GUIDANCE BEFORE BECOME STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE. COOLEST
READINGS WILL BE IN THE EAST.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER ON MONDAY.
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER
THE WESTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS. THE COLDER AIR AND LESS DOWNSLOPE
LOOKS TO HOLD ON LONGER IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. TO
COMPLICATE MATTERS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A SLUG OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. BECAUSE OF THIS CLOUD COVER...AM RELUCTANT TO WARM UP
TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH. SO TENDED TO GO A LITTLE UNDER THE WARMER
GUIDANCE.

LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH A LARGE DEPTH SO AM THINKING WILL
NOT HAVE A CHANCE EVEN FOR SOME SPRINKLES TOMORROW SO LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
REMAINS THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE WEEK.

BEGINNING TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY IS FORECAST BEFORE BIG CHANGES
ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED BUT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MAY BRING INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...CLIMBING INTO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

MOST ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH COLD FRONT ARRIVAL. THE FRONT
WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER
AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. FORECAST WEDNESDAY TO BE QUITE COLD AS A
RESULT OF THESE FACTORS AND CONTINUING COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPS
SHOULDN`T CLIMB MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT`S LOWS.
MAX FORECAST TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WITH COOLEST
TEMPS NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE
MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE
COLD FRONT TIMING REMAINS AN ISSUE ALTHOUGH MOST GLOBAL FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE NAM IS CURRENTLY THE OUTLIER SO
DID NOT LEAN ON THIS MODEL FOR TIMING PURPOSES.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...OVERALL ANTICIPATED SCENARIO REMAINS
THE SAME. A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SNOW BAND SHOULD DEVELOP NORTH OF
THE REGION AND TRANSITION SOUTH BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
BAND WOULD EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THE BIG QUESTION MARK ON TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS REMAINS. GUIDANCE PERSISTS IN SHOWING HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS JUST NORTH AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS SOUTH AS THE WEAKENING BAND
PROGRESSES SOUTH. FORECAST GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE FRONTOGENESIS
PERSISTING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ACCORDING TO
SOUNDINGS...SOME ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE. THINK SOME
GUIDANCE IS DOWNPLAYING FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS SO SIDED WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS. OVERALL...FORECAST ONE INCH OR MORE NORTH OF A LINE FROM
FLAGLER COLORADO TO SCOTT CITY KANSAS. THIS ONE INCH LINE IS
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS FORECAST.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. MOST GUIDANCE FORECASTS A RAPID
WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH VERY WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
THURSDAY`S TEMPERATURES AS THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW TO CONTEND WITH.
FORECAST SLIGHTLY BELOW MAX TEMP GUIDANCE THURSDAY AND FORECAST
NEAR/ABOVE GUIDANCE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO CORRECT RECENT COOL BIAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

FOR KGLD...SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL ALLOW MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE
AND PERIODIC FLURRIES TO OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY STABILIZE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.
NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 26 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 37 KNOTS WILL
QUICKLY DECREASE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. AFTER THAT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS.

FOR KMCK...SPORADIC AND TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE SUN GOES DONE. THEN
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTHERLY
WINDS OF NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS WILL QUICKLY
SUBSIDE NEAR SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 10 KNOTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...BULLER



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