Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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531
FXUS63 KGLD 121747
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1047 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN EASTERN AREAS BEHIND THE
FRONT TO 50S IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WHERE THE FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS TONIGHT
FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
MIGHT SEE SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHERE MOISTURE BECOMES
DEEPEST...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER ON SATURDAY
AS CLOUDS PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
WHERE IT WILL BE WARMER. SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT RETREATS EASTWARD AS A WARM
FRONT...SWEEPING THE CLOUDS AND FOG OUT OF THE AREA. SUNDAY WILL
START OUT PARTLY SUNNY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES OUT OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
MIGHT SEE A FEW SPRINKLES IN NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES...THEN LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SUNDAY EVENING AS
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND CEILINGS LOWER. LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY. LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE BROUGHT QUITE A BIT MORE
CLOUDINESS INTO THE AREA COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS. MOISTURE BELOW 700MB REMAINS RATHER DRY THUS NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CLOUDS SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LEAVING A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
9C EAST TO 13C WEST WHICH TYPICALLY SUPPORTS LOW TO MID 60S.
LATEST FORECAST SHOWING MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SLIDE EAST TOWARD
BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY THEN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ANY CLOUDINESS EAST
OF THE AREA LEAVING US NEARLY IF NOT CLOUD FREE. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BUT
GIVEN NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY IS IN THE MID 40S STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST. SHOULD SEE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD WITH LOW TO MID 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES ALSO
MILD (ABOUT TWICE AS WARM AS NORMAL) WITH LOW TO MID 30S.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ANY CLOUDINESS LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE
UPPER LEVELS WITH A DRY FORECAST CONTINUING. LATEST 850MB
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20C WHICH ALONE
SUPPORT MID 60S TO AROUND 70. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
READINGS A BIT HIGHER BUT WITH THE CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD IT COULD
PUT A DAMPER ON FULL 850MB MIXING. LOW TEMPERATURES TWICE WHAT IS
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

WIDESPREAD POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TAF
PERIOD. MVFR STRATUS ALREADY SPREAD IN FROM NORTHEAST...INCLUDING
KMCK. STRATUS ADVANCES EAST THROUGH EVENING...LOWERING FURTHER
NEAR/AFTER SUNSET. IN ADDITION...FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD
BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. LOWEST VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO OCCUR
OVER EAST COLORADO AND COUNTIES ALONG COLORADO BORDER...INCLUDING
KGLD. UNSURE HOW LOW VIS DROPS FURTHER EAST AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN
FROM EAST. EITHER WAY...ANTICIPATE MVFR VIS WITH IFR VIS LIKELY TO
THE WEST. PRIMARY QUESTION IS HOW LOW VISIBILITY DROPS ON WESTERN
EDGE OF FOG/STRATUS. FOG/STRATUS GRADUALLY ERODES SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TOMORROW. KMCK LIKELY REMAINS BELOW VFR LEVELS THROUGH
AT LEAST NOON TOMORROW IF NOT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...RRH



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