Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 240853
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
253 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 249 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016

Due to current ongoing storms and severe weather will wait to issue
the morning forecast until severe watch 202 is cancelled.

Southwest flow will persist across the central plains from today
through Thursday night.  A surface trough will exist over eastern
Colorado today and tonight.  The trough will move into northwest
Kansas Wednesday and Wednesday night and then align itself along the
Colorado/Kansas border Thursday night.

a shortwave is advertised to come through the flow this afternoon
and evening. The surface wind field suggests convergence to support
thunderstorm initiation across the northern fa. There is good
instability and shear to produce severe thunderstorms.  Subsidence
moves into the fa Wednesdays morning behind the exiting shortwave.
Even through there is an apparent weak disturbance in the flow
WEDNESDAY afternoon, dynamics and instability are weak so will make
pops nil until late evening when some lift is shown mainly across
the far north fa.  Subsidence follows Thursday morning so pops will
be nil.  A strong shortwave comes into the area Thursday afternoon
and night.  Good dynamics with this feature warrant higher chance
pops.

Max temperatures today through Thursday should range from the upper
70s in eastern Colorado to the lower 80s across northwest Kansas.
Min temperatures tonight should cool to the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 249 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016

Heading into the weekend a meandering surface boundary sets up over
the Central Plains out ahead of a upper level trough over the
Rockies. Models show this system shifting eastward of the region
Friday night, before lifting into North Central Nebraska.

Potential for rainshowers and thunderstorms increases over the
holiday weekend as remnants from the prior boundary looks to remain
over the region and another upper level low moving through the North
Central Rockies.

look for much the same at the begining of the work week as
another system looks to move through the region.

With a general southwesterly upper flow over the region, look for
near to above normal temperatures through the extened as decent warm
air advection over the area. Daytime highs will range from the mid
70s thru the mid 80s. Overnight lows will range from the upper 40s
thru the mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

For KGLD...mvfr cigs expected at or very near taf issuance as
stratus moves in from the southeast with surface winds from the
east near 10kts. sfc based thunderstorms expected around the
terminal as well. Thunderstorm chances decrease around 09z with
stratus and vlifr cigs and/or vis expected through about 17z.
models differ on how fast the stratus lifts north with the nam the
slower and gfs more progressive. Trended toward previous forecast
then favored the gfs which would bring vfr conditions to the
terminal after 21z as winds veer to the southeast near 10kts.

For KMCK...vfr conditions expected from taf issuance through 07z
or so with winds from the east around 5kts. from 08z-11z
thunderstorms possible from the south and west before dissipating
and/or moving northeast away from the terminal. Cigs will lower to
vlifr category. From 12z-18z am expecting vlifr cigs and possibly
vis. From 19z-21z cigs expected to slowly rise to mvfr category
then vfr from 22z through the rest of the taf period with winds
from the east-southeast around 11kts.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...99


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