Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 262005
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
105 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

AT 18Z UPPER LOW CENTER LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE OF COLORADO
WITH BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT
ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM OBERLIN TO COLBY AND LEOTI WHERE
700-500MB RH RATHER LOW.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON UPPER LOW OPENS UP A BIT WHILE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH INITIAL DRY SLOT OVER THE
FAR EAST SATURATING THUS LIGHT SNOW COMMENCING.

FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
MOVING NORTHEAST WITH SOME DRIER AIR COMING INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA BRINGING AN END TO THE SNOWFALL.
NORTH OF THIS LINE SOME LIGHT SNOW STILL EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATION. AFTER MIDNIGHT NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AS LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXIT THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. LOW TEENS FROM NORTON TO OAKLEY AND
LEOTI AND POINTS EAST.

SATURDAY...LOTS OF SUNSHINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN
THE MORNING BACKING TO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON THEN SOUTHWEST/WEST
LATE IN THE DAY. FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES.
ANTICIPATING AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE TO HAVE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS AND DEPTHS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE
SOUTH. DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE SNOWPACK WILL PREVENT FULL MIXING AND
WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30. SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE AM EXPECTING LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR AND LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SYSTEM
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ON MONDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER FORCING MOVES THROUGH.
THE BIGGER IMPACT HOWEVER WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND
ASSOCIATED WIND CHILLS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
EJECT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS TO
TRACK TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE
LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT...BUT REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

KGLD...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 02Z
OR SO IN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW AND VISIBILITIES AS
LOW AS 1/2 MILE. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH 15G25KTS. AFTER
03Z CIGS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 03Z WINDS
UNDER 10KTS FROM THE NORTH THEN BACKING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS AROUND 12Z.

KMCK...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 05Z
OR SO IN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW AND VISIBILITIES AS
LOW AS 1/2 MILE. WINDS FROM THE NORTH GUSTING 20-25KTS. MVFR CIGS
FROM 06Z-08Z THEN VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
DECREASING TO 10KTS OR LESS AND BACKING TO THE WEST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
     FOR KSZ001>004-013>015-027-028-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99


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