Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 221723

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1023 AM MST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 222 AM MST Sun Jan 22 2017

Latest upper air analysis shows a closed low moving east over the
Southern Plains.  Behind it a ridge was building east across the
Great Basin.  Further west the next storm system to impact the
Plains was approaching the West Coast.  The cold front which was
stationary over Eastern Colorado moved through during the night.

Today a few clouds may grace the sky this morning but will clear in
the afternoon.  Highs will be slightly cooler than yesterday due to
the weak cold front passage.  Winds will be breezy in the afternoon
as a weak low level jet behind the front mixes to the ground.

Tonight lows will be cooler than last night due to the slightly
cooler air mass behind the cold front.  After midnight clouds will
increase as moisture ahead of the next upper level trough begins to
move over the Tri-State Area.

Monday morning the upper level ridge will be centered over the area
then shift east through the day as the trough approaches from the
west.  Lift will begin to move over the Tri-State Area from the
west, but the environment will be too dry to have much more than
clouds develop.  At the surface a warm front will move through in
the afternoon from the southwest.  The WAA will cause temperatures
to warm well above normal for all of the forecast area, especially
the south where highs will reach 60 degrees.  The current forecast
may not have highs warm enough.

Monday night lift continues to move over the forecast area as the
upper short wave level trough approaches.  The environment will
continue to be too dry to support more than cloud development.  A
cold front will move through from the northwest. This will cause
lows to be similar to what we have had the past few nights.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 222 AM MST Sun Jan 22 2017

Tuesday/Tuesday night the upper level short wave trough will move
across the forecast area.  Precipitation chances increase through
the day and into the evening then decline as subsidence moves in
from the west.  Current forecast has a chance for rain during the
day.  However have more confidence of snow being the primary
precipitation type due to the precipitation coming in from the
northwest with strong CAA occurring.  Based on CIPS analysis looks
like storm systems similar to this one in the past brought as much
as four inches of snow.  The probability of receiving more than two
inches of snow is 30-40%.  SREF plume models for total snow show
less than an inch of accumulation.  This seems to be well in line
with other model snowfall amounts, giving confidence that snowfall
amounts will likely be small if the current storm track comes to

Highs may end up occurring in the morning due to the CAA through the
day.  The trend in highs for Tuesday has been to gradually cool, so
current forecast may be a few degrees too warm.

During the afternoon northwest winds will become gusty, with gusts
of 30-40 MPH.  The strongest winds will be over the west half of the
forecast area.  With snowfall occurring at the same time, reduced
visibilities can be expected and will likely be the primary impact.

Regarding model analysis, the ECMWF and GFS, as well as the GEFS
members, are all in fairly good agreement with the track of the
trough.  The NAM has a weaker trough so was discounted for the
forecast.  The Canadian continues to remain further south and has
almost the exact same track as its previous run, directly across the
forecast area.  Due to the ECMWF and GEFS/GFS models remaining
further north have more confidence with this track, the question is
how far north. The primary difference between the ECMWF and the GFS
is how far north the dry slot will be as the closed low moves
through the High Plains.  Most of our precipitation will be
occurring behind the closed low, so the further south the dry slot
is the earlier the precipitation will begin.

The extended period is expected to be tranquil as ridge of high
pressure builds into the western States and a deep trough prevails
in the east. A transverse shortwave will traverse the outer
periphery of the large, eastern trough as we head into Friday and
Saturday; however, the current guidance is showing no indications of
precipitation chances. Both the ECMWF and GFS continue to keep the
CWA situated between the eastern trough and the western ridge
through Saturday, meaning a dry and tranquil forecast through next
weekend with a slow warming trend as Saturday approaches.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1023 AM MST Sun Jan 22 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period at KGLD and
KMCK terminals. Gusty northwest winds will continue through the
daytime period today, decreasing by late afternoon as surface high
pressure builds into NW Kansas and SW Nebraska. Strongest gusts
25-30kt will be at KGLD where main low level jet axis is in place.
Winds will remain below 12kt after they decrease around 00z,
shifting to the west then south through the TAF period.




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