Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 290052
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
652 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH/SECONDARY
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIGHT BEHIND IS
HELPING OUT WITH THE LACK OF GOOD MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HOLDING
COVERAGE BACK. PER THE LATEST HRRR/NAM EXPECT THESE STORMS TO END
BY 06Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST EARLY WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 1O MPH
AREA.

DO EXPECT SOME LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO MOVE IN BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM
PER SATELLITE/LATEST GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING OUT A
LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED. LOOKS LIKE BY LATER
TONIGHT WHEN THE CLOUDS DECREASE IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD DROP A
LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. SO LOWERED MINS A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S AND COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH COLORADO UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. STORM MOVEMENT
WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCAL AREAS TO
RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL...HOWEVER A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON OVERNIGHT AS THE
COLORADO UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE
TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST AREA TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT TO ZONAL FLOW BRIEFLY SATURDAY BEFORE
BACKING TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. ON SUNDAY THIS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
A COLD FRONT.

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM EXITS
THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (NORTON TO HILL CITY) LATER
SUNDAY MORNING. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH HIGHS
ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 60S IN
THE HILL CITY AND NORTON AREAS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW
80S IN YUMA COUNTY TO AROUND 90 FROM HILL CITY TO GOVE AND TRIBUNE.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER FLOW NEARLY ZONAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
SLIGHTLY BACKING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS FROM THE WEST.

LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
A STORM MAY BRIEFLY GET CLOSE TO BOTH SITES. AT THIS TIME CHOSE
ONLY TO MENTION VCTS SINCE DO NOT EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BE AROUND
VERY LONG AND HAVE ANY MAJOR AFFECTS. SO KEPT CONDITIONS VFR
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STOP BY
02Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER



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