Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 010540
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1140 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW AN AXIS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.  THIS AXIS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY INTO
THE TRI-STATE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA.
THE TROUGH HAS SLOWLY BEEN MOVING BACK WEST.  EAST OF IT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY WHILE WEST OF IT NORTH WINDS
HAVE BEEN BREEZY.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THE AXIS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES WEST.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE EXPECT SOME ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE STRENGTHENS.

TONIGHT STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD HELP STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH INCREASES.  OVERNIGHT
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST CAUSING STORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH.

AM CONFIDENT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL SEE STORM
ACTIVITY...THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW WIDE SPREAD WILL THE ACTIVITY
BE.  THE LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS VERY
STRONG...AND LOOKING AT VARIOUS THETA LEVELS...FAIRLY DEEP.  HOWEVER
THE LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OVER THE CENTRAL PART WILL
LIKELY SERVE TO HINDER STORM ACTIVITY DESPITE THE STRONG LIFT...SO
HAVE LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THAN WOULD LIKE CONSIDERING THE
STRONG LIFT OVER THE WEST.  DOES LOOK LIKE MOST OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE EITHER WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...BUT YUMA
COUNTY WILL STILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT RECEIVING MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL OVER THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE AREA.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
COMING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS WITH A BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS
TENDED TO BE TOO FAR EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE LOWEST HEIGHTS. OVERALL
THE UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN/GFS THEN
ECMWF/NAM. THE NAM/GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
SREF/CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. NAM WAS DOING THE BEST
ON THE SURFACE PRESSURE/WIND FIELD... ESPECIALLY ON LOCATIONS OF
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND THE FRONT TO THE NORTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS DIFFER ON THE JET POSITION. MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
ECMWF IS BY ITSELF AND FURTHER WITH A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT AFFECTING
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TRICKY/UNORGANIZED SCENARIO IN PLACE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD BUT THE MAIN LEVEL LIFT IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST BEHIND IT WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE WESTERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SO WILL HAVE TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING...
FIRST ON THE EASTERN AND WESTERN ENDS WITH THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKING
TO BE IN THE WEST WHERE THE DEEPEST LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE AFFECTING
EASTERN...SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS WITH THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
AFFECTING THE SOUTH. SO LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THAT AREA.

SURFACE PUSHES INTO THE FAR WEST DURING THE NIGHT AND SHOULD CAUSE
THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF. WARMEST MINS WILL BE IN THE
EAST WHERE THE WINDS AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS NORTH. ABOVE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN
THE MORNING. THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE THERE TO THINK SOME
LINGERING MORNING PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SURFACE BOUNDARY REORGANIZES/PULLS BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN WITH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY... SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WITHOUT A CAP...FELT IT WAS REASONABLE IN
PUTTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA.

RATHER LIGHT WIND FIELD DURING THE DAY AS THE WINDS SHIFT TOWARD A
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. THE MAV/GFS HAVE TENDED TO DO
BETTER FURTHER EAST WITH THE COOLER MODELS DOING BETTER IN THE WEST.
LATEST 2 METER AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUPPORT THIS AND
ADJUSTED MAXES ACCORDINGLY. AGAIN TROUGH SHIFTS EAST DURING THE
NIGHT WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS...DRIER AIR AND LOWEST TEMPERATURES
BEING IN THE WESTERN PORTION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS IN THE EAST.

THURSDAY...MAIN JET STAYS WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA. SAME WIND FIELD
AS DAY BEFORE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH
ONCE AGAIN IS NEAR OR OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION AS A MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR OR OVER THE
ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH. SO AT THIS TIME PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST BUT COULD SEE THE CHANCE BEING
HIGHER.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY A
RATHER DEEP AND COLD UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A DEEP COLD CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AS THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA
GETTING PUSHED EAST. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT. AGREE WITH THE
NCEP ASSESSMENT THAT FLOW WILL BE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER MOVING
GIVEN THE CURRENT FLOW PATTERN.

AT THE SAME TIME...A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. SO WITH THIS
PATTERN IN PLACE A STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE IN PLACE. THIS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO PACIFIC AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE MUCH LIKE IT IS NOW. ALSO SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
ROTATE THROUGH IS FLOW.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA COULD SEE AN ACTIVE
PERIOD WITH REPEATED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WITH IT LOOKING LIKE
THE WESTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST
CHANCE. THE CRH_INIT GENERAL SUPPORTS THIS BUT STILL MAY HAVE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOO FAR EAST. CONSIDERING THIS AND GOING
THROUGH COLLABORATION...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS AND
CLEANED THEM UP A LITTLE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AND LOOKS LIKE THEY GET PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER. UNFORTUNATELY...LABOR DAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
NEAR-TERM AVIATION THREAT REMAINS SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.
OVERALL...DO NOT ANTICIPATE STORMS TO IMPACT TAF SITES. MENTIONED
VCTS AT KGLD WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST NORTH AND VCSH AT KMCK
WHERE A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS LOCATED. IN ADDITION...
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW HAS PROVIDED GUSTY WINDS AT KGLD. OUTFLOW IS
APPROACHING KMCK BUT RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ONLY A WIND
SHIFT WITHOUT GUSTINESS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LIKELY BY LATE MORNING AS DISSIPATING REMNANT CLOUD COVER
SPREADS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DAYTIME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS RETURN AS A
SURFACE TROUGH EDGES BACK NORTHWEST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...RRH


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