Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 271630

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
930 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 242 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

Across the Tri State region this morning...skies are clear with
temperatures ranging from the mid teens up to the mid 20s. Many
locales are seeing a southerly wind this morning...aiding in the
warmer temps.

For today...a shortwave trough resides over eastern portions of
Colorado with high pressure east of the CWA. This will keep a
decent southerly gradient over the area thru the day. Full
sunshine and dry conditions will allow for temps to reach into the
50s...with some locales even getting into the lower 60s.
Accompanying these warm temps will be low dewpts...especially for
the afternoon hrs. With these expected conditions...low RH
readings will creep into SW/W portions of the CWA. gradient winds
will gusting in the 25-30 mph range...prompting a Red Flag

For tonight and on into the evening hrs Tuesday...the Tri State
region will be set for a quick moving shortwave and associated
surface low/front combo. Models have trended lower on expected qpf
due to track w/ deeper moisture staying out ahead of system well
to our east. Based on current/expected temps leading into the
precip...looking for light rain transitioning to light snow from
west to east before tapering off. Not expecting much in the way
of any snow accum...with a half inch or less. Surface low/front
even now set up further south of the CWA before lifting in
central Kansas...further aiding in qpf deficit.

Looking for overnight lows to range in the 20s...with daytime
highs before and during the system passage to reach into the
40s...aided by decent waa on sw/s flow.

For late Tuesday night on through Wednesday night...system pushing
thru the region and will exit the CWA towards Wednesday morning.
Going into Wednesday...clearing and dry conditions will ensue once
more over the region. Expecting highs dropping back into the 40s
for Wednesday as some cooler air remains over the area. Overnight
lows will drop into the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 148 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

Dry conditions are expected during the extended period. The pattern
the models are showing support a very dry air mass, and despite a
few weak shortwave trough passages conditions will remain dry. The
upper-level flow starts out from the northwest then becomes westerly-
southwesterly by the end of the period. High temperatures on
Thursday will be near seasonal normals. While on Friday... highs
will reach into the 60s as a lee trough redevelops. Strong WAA will
move over the region through the weekend producing highs in the
upper 60s to around 70.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 930 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.

For KGLD winds begin from the southwest occasionally gusting 25kts
through 23z, otherwise winds generally 12-15kts. From 06z through
the rest of the taf period winds steadily veer to the west,
northwest and north at speeds generally 10kts or less. After 15z
north winds gusting toward 25kts expected as a cold front moves
through. Currently no precipitation is expected.

For KMCK winds begin from the south near 10kts and continue
through 04z. From 05z through the rest of the taf period winds
steadily veer to the southwest, west, and northwest at speeds
under 10kts. After 15z northwest winds around 13kts with some
higher gusts possible. No precipitation currently expected. Will
have to watch the 11z-15z timeframe as NAM model showing stratus
behind the front impacting the terminal with possible VLIFR cigs.
Will not include at this time.


Issued at 242 AM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

Critical fire weather conditions expected this afternoon
generally along and south of Interstate 70...and along and west
of Highway 27. In this area relative humidity is expected to fall
below 20 percent...with southwest winds gusting 20-30 mph. the
affected timeframe will be from 18z Monday to 00z Tuesday.


KS...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for KSZ013-027-

CO...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ253-254.



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