Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 260524
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1124 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 538 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Added patchy fog mention after 06-9Z tonight through 13-15Z
Monday morning. As surface front lifts tonight low level moisture
increases, so while winds shift to a less favorable direction
guidance is supporting stratus/fog. Fog signal isn`t consistent on
location, but most models are showing pockets of reduced
visibilities over at least portions of our CWA (particularly NW KS
based on RAP/HRRR). Reason for inconsistency could be due to
differences in mixing from potential showers/thunderstorms or
lingering sky cover (fog may be more likely on back edge of
stratus deck near CO state line where there is better radiational
conditions).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 158 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...mainly mostly cloudy
skies prevail as the area lies on the north side of a frontal
boundary. The lingering cloud cover this afternoon is playing a key
role in daytime temps. Any breaks showing up are allowing for a
several degree bump up. But with the entire CWA not seeing this
benefit...a wide range in temps has developed from the upper 50s to
near 70f. ESE winds are prevalent over the area with gusts still
near 20 mph in spots. Scattered showers are still working into the
area from the NW and should continue thru the remainder of the day.

Going into tonight...a shift of the surface ridge north and east of
the region along with surface trough over the Rockies...will allow
for the front over NW Kansas to meander thru the region and
eventually end up near eastern zones by Monday morning. Models show
enough weak instability to warrant mention of trw/rw...especially
for eastern portions of the CWA. With PW values still near and inch
for many locales...locally heavy rainfall could occur with any
convective development. Looking for overnight lows in the lower to
mid 50s.

For Monday...southerly flow with decent WAA returns to the region.
NW downslope H5/H7 winds will bring the CWA lower to mid 80s for
daytime highs. Isolated/scattered storms could develop thru the
day...and with the remnants of today`s front still meandering over
the region...instability could bring about potential severe for the
afternoon hrs...especially for eastern zones. SPC does have the
region under a Marginal Risk.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 141 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Moisture levels will increase on Tuesday ahead of a H7 shortwave
that will traverse the CWA through the afternoon. CAPE values will
climb to near 2500 J/Kg as a relatively strong theta-e boundary sets
up in eastern Colorado and moves eastward through the early
afternoon. There will be good moisture return as 850 mb winds will
be southeasterly at 45 knots (GFS) with mixing ratios increasing to
near 12 g/kg by 00Z. Deep layer shear will be greatest directly
along the boundary with values in the 35 to 50 knot range. There
will be a brief window of opportunity for severe thunderstorms to
form along this boundary during the afternoon. With the 0-1 km shear
approaching 17 to 25 knots and 0-3 km shear of 45-50 knots (GFS),
this will be a favorable environment for supercells, especially east
of the KS/CO border. Thunderstorm activity will push east through
the late afternoon and evening, moving out of the area overnight.

There will be another chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday and again
on Thursday as weak shortwaves move across the region each day.
Forcing will be quite weak on Wednesday; however, there will be a
stationary theta-e boundary in place across the easternmost counties
of the CWA which could provide a focus for strong to severe
thunderstorm development on Thursday.

A very weak cold front will move through the area late Thursday and
early Friday. Another mention of slight chc to chc PoPs are in the
forecast on Friday due to lingering weak instability. Low level
return flow will increase out of the southeast as we head into
Saturday, increasing moisture levels and instability ahead of the
next shortwave that will move across the region Saturday night and
early Sunday morning. A favorable environment will set up on
Saturday night for elevated strong convection as long as forcing
from the shortwave is sufficient. Will need to see more consistency
in the guidance before increasing PoPs beyond slgt chc to chc.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1123 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

IFR stratus at KGLD developed along surface trough where easterly
winds shifted to the southeast. Models are still showing
improvement through the morning, however with additional low level
moisture moving into the region both terminals are likely going to
see cigs at least in the 1200-3000 ft AGL range prevailing in the
first 6hr of the TAF. IFR can`t be ruled out either, but
confidence is higher at KGLD based on current trends. I could
still see vis dropping to 1sm or less as well, but wind direction
shifting to the south then eventually southwest may beginning to
bring drier air into the region in the lowest levels. This shift
lower confidence, and there is not a consistent signal in fog from
guidance.

Other aviation concern will be possible showers/thunderstorms,
with best chances this afternoon and evening. Considering
uncertainty and range from possible thunderstorm initiation I held
off on introducing a prevailing thunder mention in TAFs.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DR



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