Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 172047
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
147 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 144 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST WAS UPDATED THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO THE ISSUANCE OF A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE IN SOME
LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. BECAUSE OF THE FREEZING FOG AND DRIZZLE COMBINED
WITH THE CURRENT DENSE FOG AND EXPECTED LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THROUGH THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE WIDE VARIETY OF EXPECTED WEATHER AND CONTINUED SLICK
CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

HAD TO DO A MAJOR UPDATE DUE TO RECENT TRENDS. OVERALL MODEL
DATA...EVEN MESOSCALE...DOES NOT HAVE FRONT... NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS...AND FOG/STRATUS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. THIS BRINGS IN A LOT OF
DOUBT FOR AN IMPROVING FOG/CLOUD COVER TREND...ESPECIALLY DOWN
SOUTH...THAT THE MESOSCALE OUTPUT IS SHOWING. WOULD SAY THE LATEST
NAM/ECMWF ARE CATCHING THE WIND FIELD THE BEST AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MESOSCALE OUTPUT DOES NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE
FOG/DENSE FOG AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE DENSE FOG EXPANDING...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN TIME AND SPACE. WHEN/IF THE FOG BECOMES
LESS DENSE...FOG LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY.

WFO LBF HAD CHATTED EARLIER THAT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING IN THEIR AREA AND CLOSE TO OURS. SATELLITE/88D ARE
SHOWING CLOUDS AND RETURNS MOVING OVER THE AREA. COMBINING THE
LATEST OBSERVATION DATA WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS NEAR OUR AREA...IT
LOOKS LIKE FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AND ADDED IT TO THE GRIDS. ALSO BASED ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
AND LATEST MODEL DATA...IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW WILL NOT BEGIN UNTIL
THIS EVENING. THAT MAKES SENSE WITH WHAT THE SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING.
SO REMOVED THE SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

NOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES. EVEN IF THE STRATUS DOES CLEAR OUT...MAINLY
DOWN SOUTH...THICKER CLOUD COVER ABOVE THIS IS SPREADING OVER THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SO EXPECT LITTLE TO
NO SUN ACROSS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. SO REDUCED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND BEST PERFORMING
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS ARE SHOWING DENSE FOG IN AN AREA
FROM CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO SHERIDAN AND
GOVE COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW HAVE IT THROUGH 18Z. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IT CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN COLORADO. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED THEN.

ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING. COULD HAVE A BIG RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BE LOOKING INTO TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
AS WELL BY LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY
00Z THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EXIT THE
AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO THE SFC SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND. SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST IN INTRODUCING POPS BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE SOME LIGHT
SNOW STARTING AROUND 22Z-23Z FOR AREAS FROM MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND
FLAGLER...IN THE HEART OF 850-500 MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH A DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 LAYER MOVES DOWN. HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TOTALING A HALF INCH AT BEST BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE (UNDER COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
STRATUS) WITH LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH...WARMEST IN THE TRIBUNE
AND LEOTI AREAS. LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH MID 20S
FAR EAST-SOUTH.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MORNING FROM NORTON TO NEAR LEOTI AND POINTS EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEAST CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ANOTHER BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE
NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S EXCEPT AROUND 40 IN
TRIBUNE. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY WITH
SOME UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EXCEPT OVER SNOWPACK AREAS OF KIT CARSON AND
YUMA COUNTIES WHERE MID 30S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY...SATURDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL HAVE A COUPLE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND THE SECOND SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM REMAINS DRY. ALL
MODELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW
REMAINS MAINLY WESTERLY AND HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOMING WARMER THAN
AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW COVER OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO STILL BE AN ISSUE THAT WILL CREATE TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN WHAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES.

BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WHILE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY.
THE PATTERNS SEEMS TO STALL HERE AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME A
LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES WITH A PREFRONTAL THROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE EASTERN
COLORADO BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS A VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY EXPECT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPES.

WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THIS INCREASE IN WIND...BUT MAY STILL BE UNDERDONE. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS THAT TIME PERIOD APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FOG/STRATUS PLAGUE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SNOW AND POSSIBLY BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. FELT MOST
CONFIDENT IN PRECIP AT KGLD. KMCK MAY BE ON A SHARP PRECIP
BOUNDARY SO FOR NOW...PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
OVERALL...MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW. SMALL WINDOW FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS/VIS
TANK AGAIN. AS THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITS TOMORROW
MORNING...FEEL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH


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