000
FXUS63 KGLD 070727
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1227 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST THU MAR 6 2014

A VERY WARM THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM
ARE HOW WARM DO WE REACH TODAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WE HAVE SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT TO BE
FOLLOWED BY A QUICKLY DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...MAKING FOR A BREEZY DAY WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIP.

TODAY...PATCHY FOG DISSIPATED FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS MORNING. SKIES ARE CLEAR TO BEGIN...BUT
CLOUDINESS LOOMS IN NORTHERN COLORADO. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY
STEADY FOR HIGHS TODAY...AND BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE THINK CLOUD COVER WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO NOT BE MUCH OF A
PROBLEM FOR SURFACE HEATING. BESIDES...WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE
WARMER TEMPS TODAY. WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF
THE SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH MANY SPOTS LIKELY HITTING
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED REGARDING FIRE WEATHER WITH
RH VALUES DIPPING TO THE LOW TEENS...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TOO
WEAK TO SUPPORT RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY BEHIND IT. WHILE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE HAD SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP INTO
MONDAY MORNING...BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...STRENGTH OF THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...FEEL CONFIDENT REMOVING
POPS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IF PRECIP WERE TO FALL...EVERY
INDICATION SHOWS IT WOULD BE VERY LIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...CLOUDY..COOLER...AND BREEZY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN.
HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND SLIGHTLY LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY PER
LATEST GUIDANCE. ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO AREAS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AND INTO NEIGHBORING NORTHWEST KANSAS COUNTIES IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE. THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MOISTURE WILL SATURATE THROUGH THE COLUMN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO PROVIDES AMPLE PVA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...POTENTIALLY
EVEN STRONGER ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN NORTHWEST KANSAS.
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. AM A
BIT CONCERNED WITH HOW MUCH THE NAM 4KM CONUS NEST HAS BEEN
DOWNPLAYING THE PRECIPITATION PROCESSES...BUT SINCE ITS PARENT MODEL
SUPPORTS GOOD MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT LIFTING...AM CONSIDERING IT AN
OUTLIER AT THIS POINT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER...IN THE
40S...AND PRECIP TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT WE WILL SEE SOME
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...BUT AM AFRAID PRECIP MIGHT NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THUS...FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH POPS
GENERALLY IN THE 50 PERCENT RANGE...WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY...AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH THROUGH 00Z AT MOST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND FAIRLY
DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN ON
TUESDAY... CHANGING TO SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODEL SNOW FORECASTS ARE IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO...THOUGH EVEN THAT MAY BE A
LITTLE HIGH WITH A MIX TO START AND ANTECEDENT WARM GROUND. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW ALOFT THOUGH APPEARS
RIDGING WILL BE PREDOMINANT AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AFTER
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 924 PM MST THU MAR 6 2014

A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH IN THE EARLY MORNING AND ANOTHER SLIGHTLY MORE
POTENT WAVE MOVING THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH IN THE EARLY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE TERMINALS AROUND 14Z. THIS IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE 0Z
TAF ISSUANCE SINCE THE RAP SOUNDING NOW IS INDICATING A LOW CLOUD
LAYER AT KGLD. SINCE THIS WAS THE ONLY MODEL THAT SHOWED THIS AND
THE PREVIOUS RUN WAS NOT CONSISTENT WITH THIS...WENT WITH A
SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER FOR KGLD. NAM AND RAP STILL INDICATE A LOW
CLOUD LAYER OVER KMCK...SO LEFT THE BROKEN LAYER IN FOR NOW.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE START TIMES FOR RAIN...SINCE NOTHING IN THE
MODELS CHANGED ENOUGH TO ALTER THE TIMING...SO RAIN WILL START
AROUND 18Z AT KMCK AND 19Z AT KGLD. THE RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO
SNOW ONCE TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR FOR
KMCK AT 01Z AND KGLD AT 02Z. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. KEPT VISIBILITY AT 3SM IN LIGHT SNOW...BUT IT
COULD GO LOWER. LATER TAF ISSUANCES WILL BE ABLE TO GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON THAT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...ALW