Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 280436

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1036 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1217 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

18Z water vapor imagery and RUC analysis indicated large 592 dm H5
ridge in places across southern NM and TX. At the sfc...diffuse
trough axis was present across western CWA...separating area of
rather light westerly winds and stronger southwesterly flow.

H5 ridge over the area will be dominant weather feature through
tomorrow leading to dry conditions and passing high clouds
through the period. Main forecast impact through tomorrow will be
how dry things get each afternoon and resulting fire wx impacts.
Sfc observations,satellite soundings and DNR 12z raob all indicate
very dry air to the west of the area which will gradually drift
into area overnight. With afternoon mixing would not be shocked to
see dewpoints in the west fall into the lower 20s at some point.
This will drive humidities into the critical fire wx range, but
as was the case today winds will not be located with the driest
air and as a result to not expect critical fire wx conditions to

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 227 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

The overall pattern looks fairly quiet over the weekend into
early next week as the current upper high over southern Rockies
gradually flattens out over the weekend. A weak cold front will
slide through the area dry on Saturday dropping temperatures from
unseasonably warm 80s back into the 70s which is still a good
10-15 degrees above normal. After that, a series of weak short
wave troughs aloft eject out of the West Coast trough and move
over the central-northern Plains. This will bring another weak
cold front south, cooling temperatures back into the 60s Tue-Wed.

The next chance of precipitation looks to be at the end of the
forecast period from Wed night into Friday as a good chunk of
energy moves over the Rockies and into the Plains. Main problem is
the system that the models bring in is currently somewhere over
the dateline and likely not sampled well. Thus, model solutions
diverge quite a bit and confidence is low in the timing, location
and amount of any precip. Lowered pops from the init in that time
frame after collaborating with neighbors.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1033 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

VFR conditions expected for the TAFs. There will continue to be
low level wind shear at KMCK until the low level jet shifts
slightly further south of the site. Otherwise winds will gradually
turn to the northwest ahead of a surface trough that will move
through Friday. Behind the trough winds will turn back to the




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