Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 242035
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
235 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Much of the forecast area (except extreme west and east) caught
underneath mid level dry slot this afternoon which has greatly
diminished precipitation coverage. This looks to continue into the
early evening hours before an increase in moisture moves across the
southern half of the area from southern Colorado around midnight
associated with the approach of an upper trough. After midnight the
plume of moisture slowly lifts northeast favoring areas east of a
line from Norton to Gove and Tribune. With little to no instability
rain showers will be the primary precipitation type. Low
temperatures should fall into the upper 40s to low 50s in far
eastern Colorado with low to upper 50s east of the border.

On Thursday the upper trough and better moisture slowly move east
through mid to late afternoon before ending late in the day.
Afternoon temperatures should peak in the mid 70s to near 80 across
the area. It should be noted that the 18z NAM has come in more
aggressive with qpf tonight and tomorrow. If it verifies
temperatures across the southern half of the area would be much
cooler given extensive low cloudiness and a bit better chance of
precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

H5 trough digs in across the region Thursday night, bringing slgt
chc PoPs to the CWA overnight into Friday morning. Thunderstorm
chances increase as we head into the midday on Friday with a few
strong storms possible mainly during the afternoon/early evening
hours. The trough axis will push to the east late Saturday morning
and limit thunderstorm chances to the eastern most portions of the
CWA. A shortwave will form in the wake of the first trough and bring
another chance of showers and storms to the region on Sunday with
chc PoPs beginning around midday and persisting into the evening,
especially in the eastern portions of the CWA. There could be a few
lingering showers in the region early Monday morning with dry
weather expected to move in during the afternoon. High pressure will
build into the region as we head into Tuesday and Wednesday.

Temperatures will be below normal on Friday with highs reaching only
into the upper 70s to lower 80s. For Saturday, we can expect warmer
temperatures near normal in the middle 80s. Near normal to slightly
above normal temperatures in the middle to upper 80s are in the
forecast Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1045 AM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.
However, should a shower or thunderstorm move directly over the
terminal mvfr/ifr visibilities in moderate to heavy rain possible.
Best chance albeit rather low is from taf issuance through the
overnight. Otherwise expect winds from the northeast to north
through the period. Speeds generally around/under 11kts but could
see gusts near 20kts from taf issuance through late this
afternoon.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...99


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