Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 221917

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
117 PM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Today-tonight...morning low clouds/possible fog expected to steadily
dissipate through mid to late morning leaving a sunny to mostly
sunny sky in the afternoon. Little if any moisture in the 850-500mb
column leading to a dry forecast under perhaps a small increase in
high clouds through the night. High temperatures in the upper 70s to
low 80s. Low temperatures coolest across the east where winds
lightest with readings in the low 50s. Further west should see mid
to upper 50s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...may see a thunderstorms reach the
extreme western portion of Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties of
Colorado during the mid to late afternoon hours otherwise a sunny to
mostly sunny sky expected. Breezy southerly winds possible in the
mid morning through afternoon with afternoon temperatures in the low
to upper 80s. Precipitation chances slowly move east across most of
the area (except in the Norton and Hill City areas) during the night
as westerly flow aloft carries minor disturbance and some moisture
across the area. Low temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Thursday-Thursday night...may see a few morning showers/possible
thunderstorms east of the CO/KS border in the morning otherwise will
have to wait for approaching upper disturbance to move in from the
west during the afternoon to get our next chance for thunderstorms.
This system moves into the area during the night bringing a much
better chance of showers/thunderstorms compared to the past several
days. With precipitable water values as high as 1.8 inches after
midnight locally heavy rainfall possible. Should see high
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the mid 50s to
mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 117 PM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

The extended period will be active over the Tri-State region.
Starting off Wednesday night, there could be some pop up
precipitation over the region due to a shortwave moving within the
upper level ridge over the CWA. Thursday will be a day to keep a
close eye on as the ridge will move east and an upper level
shortwave trough will push into the region. Bulk shear does not look
that impressive but CAPEs are. Severe storms are possible; current
guidance is showing a late afternoon/early evening initiation over
the CWA.

Friday and Saturday will be similar. Precipitation chances are
possible each day due to the lingering shortwave trough over the
region Friday and northwest flow on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday are showing a consistent north, northwest
flow over the region due to a very large ridge over the western
CONUS. This will brings waves of precipitation chances each day.

Temperatures during the period will primarily stay in the 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Surface ridge moving over our CWA will inhibit cloud development
today and tomorrow. VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the
Goodland and McCook terminals. Only concern for aviators will be
gusty winds from the south around 15Z tomorrow.




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