645
FXUS63 KGLD 150523
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1123 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures in the 90s to low 100s to start the week (hottest
  on Tuesday) before slightly cooler temperatures in the
  70s/80s mid week.

- Daily chances for showers and storms begin Tuesday during the
  afternoon to evening hours. Some storms may be strong to
  severe especially Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

This afternoon into the evening hours, an upper shortwave
disturbance is expected to move along the zonal flow over the
Central High Plains aiding in the development of scattered showers
and weak storms over Eastern Colorado. Confidence is below 30% that
any storms will move into our Colorado counties after 6 PM MDT as
HRRR and NAMnest guidance shows a less supportive environment over
our area this evening. Overnight lows are expected to be in the 60s
across the area tonight.

Tomorrow a more pronounced shortwave will move across the region as
a cold front slides south across the High Plains bringing in a
cooler air mass with more moisture. Latest guidance has the cold
front moving over the Tri-State area during the evening hours as the
lee surface trough pushes away from the Rockies and into the Great
Plains. If the low struggles to move out of Colorado, we are looking
at in increase in storm threat across the area. However, CAMs are
favoring the trough moving through, which may limit storm potential
for the forecast area as the low moves directly over. In this
solution, most storm activity would occur north and southwest of us
with some redevelopment on the back side of the core activity
between 12 AM (Midnight) and 6 AM CDT Tuesday night-Wednesday
morning for those in the northeast corner of the area. With any
storms that occur in the area, the main concerns are damaging wind
gusts up to 60 mph and quarter sized hail. Temperatures tomorrow are
expected to be even hotter than today with highs in the upper 90s to
around 100F with Heat Index Values in the upper 90s to 101F.
Overnight lows will be a little cooler out west with temperatures in
the upper 50s to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Moving through the rest of the week, the upper level ridge moves
further across the Great Plains while an upper trough begins to move
across the the Northwest Contiguous United States (CONUS). The moist
air mass moving in behind tomorrow`s cold front should linger
through Friday when the upper level pattern becomes more zonal once
again. We have daily chances for showers and storms through the
period during the afternoon to evening hours as shortwaves move over
the area. Friday and Saturday have lower confidence (20% chances) as
the upper high over the Southeast CONUS brings a return of the zonal
flow to our area. The Weather Prediction Center has the area
outlooked with a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Wednesday-
Friday. Should we have storms move over the same areas day after day
we could run into some flash flooding concerns towards the end of
the week. With the current drought conditions, we should be able to
soak up a decent bit of water though. Wednesday and Thursday look to
be our much welcomed cooler days with highs in the mid 80s to lower
90s Wednesday and in the upper 70s to lower 80s Thursday. Friday
onward is looking at highs climbing back into the 90s each day.
Overnight lows each night will fluctuate around the mid 50s to upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1114 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Expect LLWS tonight from the south at 35-40 kts around the
200-500 feet AGL height. There is a chance some gusts around 30
kts could mix down to the surface before sunrise, but they will
be sporadic. As the sun rises, the low level jet will weaken
and the inversion will erode. We will see southerly winds pick
up in the mid morning, being fairly similar to yesterday.

Around 0Z, both KGLD and KMCK will see a potential of strong to
severe storms moving in from the west. KGLD has about a 15-25%
chance of seeing these storms while KMCK has a 30-40% chance of
seeing the storms. These look to be run of the mill high based,
High Plains storms, so expect erratic winds and visibility
reductions if you run into a storm. Storms look to leave the TAF
sites between 4-6Z, but we could see IFR ceilings by 12Z
Wednesday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...CA