Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 251904
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1204 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

LEFT EXIT REGION OF 140KT JET WILL RESULT IN FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO. HI RESOLUTIONS MODELS SUGGESTING A HALF INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN A NARROW BAND FROM NEAR YUMA TO
BURLINGTON...LESS ELSEWHERE. AS THE JET SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT SUBSIDENT AREA OF RIGHT EXIT REGION WILL SHUT OFF THE
SNOW BY 12Z. COPIOUS HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER
ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...MITIGATING ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

WEDNESDAY MORNING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT DECLINES AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES OVER THE AREA.  THERE IS A
NARROW BAND OF 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WHICH BISECTS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING UNDER THE 500MB JET STREAK BESIDE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS INTERSECTING THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DECIDED
TO KEEP MINIMAL SNOWFALL CHANCES GOING DURING THE MORNING OVER
MAINLY YUMA COUNTY.  AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  AS A RESULT THE BREEZY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST THROUGH THE DAY CAUSING THE WINDS TO
DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT
NOT AS MUCH WARM AIR AS INDICATED YESTERDAY. THE WEST HALF WILL
HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER THE EAST HALF
OF THE AREA.

THANKSGIVING DAY THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT WITH
LAMINAR NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.  BY MONDAY, THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AS A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.  AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE EAST OF
THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 850
TEMPERATURES INDICATE SUPPORT FOR UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THICK
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...BUT LOWER CEILINGS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. A BRIEF FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...MAINLY AT KGLD...WHICH
COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR 6SM.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...FS/JTL
AVIATION...024



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