Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 310835
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
235 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING. THAT BEING SAID...MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AS HINTED AT BY
THE HRRR NEAR A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINE. ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SO CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. SOME OF THE HIRES NAM
MEMBERS PAINT A SIMILAR SCENARIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO SO CARRIED SOME LOW POPS. ONCE AGAIN SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE FAIRLY DECENT SHOULD SOMETHING DEVELOP. PERHAPS THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SOMEWHAT BETTER LOOKING TROUGH COMING OUT OF COLORADO AND TOPPING
THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT WITH THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THAT IT
WILL ACTUALLY PLAY OUT THAT WAY SO WILL ONLY CARRY SILENT 10 POPS
OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SETUP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ALONG WITH A TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH ITS AXIS LIKELY OVER THE
AREA BY THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND OVER THE
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS REGAINS ITS SHAPE LATE TUESDAY AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TOWARDS THE PLAINS AS A CLOSED LOW APPROACHES
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAKER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO MOVE ALONG THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GENERATING PRECIP CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TRI STATE REGION WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BOTH KGLD AND KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...MK



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