Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 221734
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1134 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Update issued for adjustments to daytime highs for most areas.
Latest obs show some locales are close to or have reached high
forecast...so have bumped up slightly. Rest of forecast on track
at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Today-tonight...a cold front will move south across the area today
with many locations seeing high temperatures earlier than normal
with slowly falling temperatures for the rest of the day behind the
front. 850mb temperatures support readings in the mid 90s to around
102, hottest ahead of the front across the east and south. A weather
disturbance is expected to move into the area from the northwest and
should interact with the front to produce a slight chance to low
chance of thunderstorms, some of which may become severe late this
afternoon. May see a lull in precipitation early this evening before
chances increase after midnight as another batch of moisture moves
in from the northwest. Low temperatures should fall into the low to
mid 50s west, low 60s far east.

Friday-Friday night...may see some morning showers otherwise dry.
850mb temperatures drop about 19F to 29F across the area supporting
highs in the low 70s to near 80. Low temperatures in the low to mid
50s.

Saturday-Saturday night...could see some light rain showers through
the period as weather disturbances and increases in moisture move
across the area in fast northwest flow aloft. Afternoon temperatures
remain below normal with low to mid 70s. Low temperatures slightly
below normal with upper 40s to low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 140 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Northwest flow to start the period will gradually weaken as the
western ridge crosses the Rockies. The ridge will weaken by the
end of the period with a zonal flow across the CONUS.

There will be occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms
during the period associated with weak embedded shortwave troughs
in the flow aloft. Instability will be lacking at the start of the
period, but does gradually increase next week. However, with the
ridge building over the area forcing for convection will be a
problem. All in all, no day stands out as particularly favorable
for a severe weather threat and storm chances should remain
relatively low.

Temperatures will be below normal Sunday and Monday, near normal
Tuesday then above normal on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

For both taf sites...looking for VFR conditions at this time.
Frontal boundary set to push south thru the region during the
forecast period. Will see scattered mid and high clouds give way
to BKN050 aft 00z Friday. Big question is timing of front and
chance for convection to fire up. Best chances will occur KGLD
and south...but low confidence in timing so will only have VCTS in
for now and await initiation of convection to better time any
thunder. Winds NNE 15-30kts...w/ a period for both sites around
10kts between 03z-13z Friday.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN


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