Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 311041

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
441 AM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 224 AM MDT Tue May 31 2016

Cooler temperatures 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday are
expected today across the Central High Plains region in the wake
of a cold front that moved through the region overnight.

The main upper trough axis in the split flow aloft over the U.S.
moves east across the Central High Plains region this evening with
ridging over the southwest U.S. to move east and affect the
forecast area from Thursday through Friday night

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over the higher
terrain of Colorado and move east over the plains of Eastern
Colorado and Western Kansas in association with the upper trough
moving east of the Rockies. Storms are expected to stay mostly
along and south of Interstate 70 this afternoon and evening,
diminishing overnight tonight. Dryer and warmer conditions are
expected over the forecast area Wednesday and Thursday as the
upper ridging moves in from the southwest and higher pressure
moves into the plains states at the surface.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 117 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016

The extended period continues to be in good agreement between the
models that the ridge in the western CONUS is still impacting the
CWA. Friday and Saturday still show dry, warm conditions over the
region. For Sunday and Monday night, there are chances for some
precipitation. Current model runs show potential for rain/storms due
to a closed low, that has been sitting over central California,
being pushed and absorbed into the ridges flow those days. With this
happening, moisture from Mexico/Gulf of Mexico gets pulled up and
helps with precip chances. The GFS and European are differing with
precip chances on Sunday. The GFS doesn`t show anything whereas the
Euro does. For Monday, models are in agreement but timing is a
little different; this could be due to the exact placement of the
ridge in the west and the trough in the east. Time will tell which
one holds true. Currently, Monday night looks best for storm
potential with surface CAPEs around 1000 J/kg and bulk shear around
45 kts. Will keep an eye on the storm potential as the day draws


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1140 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016

The main line of thunderstorms from earlier this evening is well
southeast of the terminals, but scattered light showers will move
back into the area overnight from the west. Have this in the TAFS
as a broken deck at FL100 and VCSH. Winds will be mostly light
and variable until later tonight when a cold front will move
through the terminals from the northwest. Stratus and fog are
expected to develop after 09Z and continue until around 13-14Z
when drier air will arrive.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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