Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 240010

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
510 PM MST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Nov 23 2017

Shortwave trough topping the ridge today will move down the
northern and central plains on Friday. Main concern with this
system will be windy conditions on Friday. Timing for strongest
winds looks to be from mid morning through mid afternoon.
Strongest wind speeds in the 0-5km layer will be around 40kts, so
might see some gusts in the 40-50mph range during that time. Front
will also result in falling afternoon temperatures in all but the
far southern locations. Used the hires arw and nmm to capture the
non-diurnal temperature curve. Similar to today, might be able to
set a record high temperature or two ahead of the front.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1245 PM MST Thu Nov 23 2017

Friday night-Sunday...a weather disturbance embedded within
northwest flow aloft exits the area Friday night with slowly
increasing 500mb heights through Sunday as an upper level ridge
centered over northwest Mexico strengthens. No precipitation is
expected. After morning lows in the low 30s Friday night highs on
Saturday look to reach around 60/low 60s. A bit milder lows expected
Saturday night with highs on Sunday in the mid 60s (east) to low/mid
70s (west).

Monday...upper flow shifts to the southwest during the day ahead of
an approaching upper trough. 850mb temperatures in the upper teens
to low 20C range are expected which will make for another day of
much above normal high temperatures. In fact, record and near
record temperatures are possible at a few locations. Will have to
monitor sfc winds as they when combined with forecast relative
humidity produce critical/near critical fire weather
conditions...primarily from Benkelman to Colby and Leoti west at
this time. For Monday night the 12z GFS/GEM bring the upper trough
into the Tri-State shortly after midnight area while the 00z and
12z ECMWF remain further west with a closed low near the four
corners area. Not going to make any changes to the forecast at
this point which suggests some light rain changing over to light
snow across the western 1/3 of the area.

Tuesday...12z GFS/GEM similar in moving the upper low and trough east
of the area supporting a dry forecast. The 12z ECMWF is slower
(as mentioned above) and if correct could produce a little light
precipitation across the far western counties during the
afternoon. North winds will be breezy to possibly windy depending
on timing of the cold front. High temperatures will be cooler and
closer to normal with mid 40s to low 50s. Low temperatures in the
low to mid 20s.

Wednesday...Currently have a dry forecast with weak but broad upper
ridging over the area. High temperatures look to reach the low
50s with lows in the mid to upper 20s.

Thursday...currently have highs in the upper 40s to low 50s under a
mostly sunny sky and dry conditions.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 453 PM MST Thu Nov 23 2017

Friday morning, a cold front will be moving over the Goodland and
McCook terminals causing a quick shift to northwest winds and
gusty winds. Ceilings and visibility conditions will remain at VFR




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