Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 251053
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
453 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM PACIFIC
INTO NORTH AMERICA. STRONG UPPER SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CANADA HAS
FLATTENED THE FLOW OUT OVER THE COUNTRY AS IT HAS SHOVED RIDGE
FURTHER SOUTH. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME COMING AROUND THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SIDES OF THIS RIDGE. DESPITE TOASTY MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...THUNDERSTORMS WERE ABLE TO FORM TO OUR WEST AND
NORTH.

AT MID LEVELS...SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THE GFS
DID A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN/UKMET AND NAM. AT LOW LEVELS...
THE SREF DID A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE GFS WAS DOING THE
BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN UPPER JET REMAINS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. GRADIENT AND PRESSURE
RISES WOULD INDICATE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON FRONTAL SPEED AND POSITION.
MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF
THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND STAYS SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT BACK NORTH.

VERY DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE FOR TODAY ALONG WITH PLUS 16
TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB. IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO FORM...THE RAIN
LOOKS TO HAVE A POOR CHANCE OF MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. THE FRONT
WILL BE SOUTH PLUS INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL KEEP THE DAY PERIOD DRY.

DRY LAYER STAYS IN PLACE DURING THE NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
STORM MOTIONS ARE 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM WEST AND SOUTHWEST. SO STORMS
MAY TAKE A WHILE TO GET HERE OR NOT MAKE IT. AT THE SAME TIME PLENTY
OF ELEVATED CAPE WITH ELEVATED CINH WEAK ENOUGH IN SOME PLACES TO
BE OVERCOME. AM NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC OF ANYTHING OCCURRING BUT CANNOT
TOTALLY DISCOUNT SOMETHING POPPING. SO KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE
DURING THE EVENING.

AS FOR MAXES...FASTER AND STRONGER FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES PLUS CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON WILL INHIBIT
TEMPERATURES. 850 MB CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY AND BIAS ADJUSTMENT 850
MB SUPPORT GOING COOLER AND MATCHES WELL WITH THE COOLER MET AND
GFS 2 METER. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL NEAR THE
COOLER GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN DECENT TO GOOD AGREEMENT IN
CONTINUING TO PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH OR ANOTHER REINFORCING
SHOT COOLER AIR THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BELIEVE THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TIED TO IT. SO IT LOOKS LIKE IF WE ARE GOING TO
GET ANY THUNDERSTORMS THEY WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP IN THE POST-FRONTAL
UPSLOPE REGIME. ONCE AGAIN AN EXTREMELY DEEP DRY LAYER WILL BE IN
PLACE. AREA WILL ALSO BE IN SUBSIDENCE DURING MOST IF NOT ALL DAY
FROM SUBSIDENCE BEHIND OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE. HEIGHTS RISE AND HAVE
TEMPORARY RIDGING ALOFT. SO WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME DRY. PER REASONING
ABOVE WILL MAKE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MAXES WHICH SHOULD BE
WARMER THAN TODAYS.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE ESTABLISHED ITSELF BY THE NIGHTTIME
PERIOD. THERE LOOKS TO BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COME THROUGH DURING
THE NIGHT. THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE LOOK TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION. AGAIN AM NOT OPTIMISTIC ABOUT ANYTHING OCCURRING
BUT CONSIDERING THE PARAMETERS LINE UP THE BEST FOR PRECIPITATION...
THE SLIGHT CHANCES IN THERE LOOK FINE. GEFS PROBABILITIES FOR
MEASURABLE MATCH WITH THIS AREA AS WELL.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH WELL AWAY FROM
THE AREA WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST BECOMING FIRMLY ESTABLISHED. THOSE
WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY IN THE MORNING PER TIGHT GRADIENT
AND DECENT 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE MAY BE THE ONLY FORM OF
LIFT WITH LITTLE TO NO LIFT AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. IN FACT THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING THROUGH IN THE FLOW GOES MOSTLY SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA WITH OUR SOUTHWEST CORNER GETTING BRUSHED. STORM MOTIONS
WILL BE 5 KNOTS OR LESS SO AM NOT CONFIDENT OF ANYTHING MOVING INTO
THE AREA. IN FACT ALL THE MODELS DEVELOP A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
CIRCULATION ANYWHERE FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE PANHANDLE
AREA AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SO AM EXPECTING THE BRUNT OF THE
RAINFALL...WHICH THERE COULD BE A LOT GIVEN THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND UPSLOPE...TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED IN CASE THIS ENDS DEVELOPING FURTHER NORTH.

SO AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THERE
BUT PULL THOSE FURTHER SOUTH AND CONFINE THEM TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST
QUARTER OF THE AREA. BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN HOW MUCH TO COOL THIS
DAY. DOING A BIAS ADJUSTMENT FROM THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND THE
AMOUNT OF 850 MB TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS IS
COOLER THAN A MAJORITY OF THE 2 METER AND MET/MAV GUIDANCE. WILL
TREND TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN LATEST MODEL RUNS FOR
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. GOING INTO NEXT MONDAY...BROAD H5/H7
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...AND A DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS LEAVES THE
FORECAST AREA IN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS FOR THE ENTIRE 4-DAY
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...BOUNDARY STAYS ALONG THE EAST COAST...DOWN
INTO THE GULF REGION AND UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY HAS CWA SEEING LOW PRESSURE FORM ALONG THE TAIL-END OF THE
FRONT IN EASTERN COLORADO. WITH LITTLE FORCING TO MOVE CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS...KEEPING HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BY MIDWEEK...WEAK 700 MB SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. MODEL TRACK WILL PUT HIGHEST POP CHANCES ALONG
WESTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES BEFORE TAPERING OFF. BRIEF RESPITE IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING OCCURS
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GOING INTO THURSDAY...TROUGH TO THE EAST DOES
RETROGRADE SOME...HINTING THAT CUTOFF LOW MAY FORM. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL THEN PINWHEEL SOUTH ON BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...
ALLOWING FOR 20-30 POP POTENTIAL FOR RW/TRW THURSDAY...DROPPING OFF
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN RETURNING FOR FRIDAY. WITH REGION SEEING
BROAD NW THROUGH THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME...COMBINED WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND CLOUD COVER FROM EXPECTED
CONVECTION...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RANGE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR BOTH HIGHS(LOW TO MID 80S)/LOWS(LOW TO MID 60S).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY UNTIL
EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN WINDS WILL START SHIFTING AND BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY WEST OF KGLD SO VCTS WAS REMOVED FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...BULLER






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