Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 181113
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
413 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATE TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SNOW BAND HAS FALLEN
APART AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS COME TO AN END. UPPER LOW IS NOW
OVER NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE. WHILE GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SUPPORTING DENSE FOG REDEVELOPMENT...BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...SO
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT IS MINIMAL. I CANT JUSTIFY A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY JUST FOR FREEZING FOG...BUT FELT THE NEED TO KEEP
A SPS OUT TO COVER FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL. WILL MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT HOUR AND IF FOG CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE I MAY NEED
TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS WITH AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA.

REGARDING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING....

RADAR AND SURROUNDING OBS SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT FORMED ON
BACK SIDE OF H7 LOW MOVING EAST OVER OUR EASTERN CWA. THIS SNOW HAS
HELPED MIX OUT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SHIFT IN LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AIDING IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODELS...I
AM STILL CONCERNED THAT LIGHT WINDS AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS SNOW BAND.
FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT WITH BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION/POOLING. OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE MORNING
SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AROUND 12-15Z...WITH ANY FOG
CLEARING BY MIDDAY. AFTER 12Z I AM SKEPTICAL THAT FLOW WOULD ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
FREEZING DRIZZLE...THOUGH FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LINGER
A LITTLE LONGER. WITH THIS IN MIND I PLAN ON HOLDING ONTO CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH EXPIRATION IN CASE I NEED TO
EXTEND IT IN TIME FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH 15Z.

REST OF TODAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
TODAY AND AIR MASS WILL BEING MODERATING AND DRYING AS SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THERE MAYBE DECENT CLEARING WHICH COULD
SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S (FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW PACK).
IT IS TOUGH TO SAY HOW MUCH CLEARING AS MODELS HOLD ONTO STRATUS
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...SO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TODAYS HIGHS.

TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA. NAM AND SREF BL RH CONTINUE TO RUN
HIGH...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF SNOW PACK...AND SUPPORT FOG/STRATUS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. I ADDED PATCHY FOG TO TONIGHT AS
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING BL MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
PRETTY LOW AS TROUGH MAY BE EAST OF OUR CWA. THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
SUBFREEZING...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT ANY FOG WOULD BE DENSE
ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT ICE ACCUMULATION (FREEZING FOG). I AM
LEAVING FOG OUT OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE TONIGHT FIRST. SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD BACK
OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH CONTINUED
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. COMPLICATION TO TEMP FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACT OF DEEPER SNOW PACK IN OUR NORTHWEST
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR TO THE PLAINS WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION MONDAY WILL BEGIN AS SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT WILL BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AFTER SUNSET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE AS STALLING OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST STATES...BUT THE TRI STATE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN THE WEST. THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND
MOVE WESTWARD TO BRING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FOR BOTH TAF SITES FROM 06Z-15Z THURSDAY...MAINLY LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR/MVFR MIX THRU 09Z. CEILINGS MAINLY 1/4SM
TO 1/2SM IN A SNOW/FREEZING FOG MIX...WITH PERIODS 1-3SM THRU 09Z.
FROM 15Z ONWARD...IFR CONDITIONS TREND TO VFR BY 00Z FRIDAY.
CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM BKN-OVC006-010 UP TO BKN100 BY 00Z
FRIDAY. 3-6SM IN FOG DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 00Z
FRIDAY. WINDS MAINLY VARIABLE THRU 15Z...THEN WSW 5-10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN


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