Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 172027
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
227 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW
PERSISTENT RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SW US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EVIDENT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...WITH H7 TROUGH ON LATEST RAP JUST
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. RADAR AND VIS SATELLITE SHOW ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR SW CWA.

HRRR HAS A REASONABLE HANDLE ON CURRENT COVERAGE AND INDICATED
ACTIVITY MAINLY REMAINING ALONG AND EAST OF A TRIBUNE TO FLAGLER
LINE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE WITH ML CAPE IN THE 1500-
3000 J/KG RANGE. CIN IS STILL HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...HOWEVER AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ML CINH SHOULD WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR ACTIVITY TO SPREAD
EASTWARD. COVERAGE IS STILL A QUESTION WITH DRY INVERTED V TYPE
MOISTURE PROFILES...HOWEVER WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASE AND
GOOD BL MOISTURE IN PLACE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY DEVELOP. THERE IS AT LEAST AN ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT
CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE CAPE AND EXPECTATION OF EFFECTIVE SHEER
INCREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION. PROFILES WOULD ALSO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURST
POTENTIAL...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1800
J/KG. AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPS ALOFT TONIGHT AND PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY...WITH ELEVATED FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND WASHED OUT
FRONT/SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SOUTH THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT  WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER WEAK VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH COULD ALSO HELP WITH THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. PRECIP SIGNAL IS STRONGEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IS LIFTS
NORTH...WITH BETTER COVERAGE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH.
HIGH TEMPS MONDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY...THOUGH
THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW-MID
90S.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT
FIRST...MAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE IN FROM NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. GFS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND
WINDS AT 320K INDICATE THAT ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE BY MIDNIGHT AS MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH.
DECIDED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
WANING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BETWEEN 3-6 AM MDT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
MAIN THREAT...TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH
THE OVERNIGHT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS THE MAIN STORY BEFORE A PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH BREAKS THE RIDGE DOWN TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. FOR EACH DAY...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASS OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. RIDGE.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH CAPE OF
2000-2500J/KG ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES AROUND 8 C/KM AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS. SOME
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LIMITING SEVERE CHANCES SOME BY DECREASING
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN NEXT WEEKEND. DID LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES
A TOUCH BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT TRENDS OBSERVED AND
COOL THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS LIKELY EACH EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE...
ESPECIALLY THE EUROPEAN...SUGGESTS THAT A COLD FRONT PASSAGE IS
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY POOR WITH
THE GFS SUGGESTING THE HOT WEATHER WILL REMAIN. THEREFORE...DID NOT
MAKE ANY LARGE CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. MAIN CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG KS/CO STATE LINE AND WITHIN VICINITY OF
KGLD...EVENTUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTH. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS KGLD FOR NOW...WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE AT KMCK...SO I LIMITED TEMPO -TSRA TEMPO TO KGLD.
GUSTY WINDS AROUND 15-20KT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ON EASTERN
EDGE OF SURFACE TROUGH AT KMCK WITH LIGHTER WINDS GENERALLY AROUND
6KT AT KMCK. WILL WILL DIMINISH AT KMCK THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...DR



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