Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 211006

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
306 AM MST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 237 AM MST Sun Jan 21 2018

Across the Tri State region this morning...skies are cloudy with
temperatures ranging from the upper 20s to the mid 30s...warmest
east. Winds are northerly with some gusts reaching 15 to 20 mph.
Some locales east are starting to see fog develop as well.

For today on into the evening/overnight hours...the main wx focus
will be on the approaching winter storm set to move across the
region. The system is currently moving slowly thru the south-central
Rockies and is expected to push eastward into the Plains region
later this morning. Model track of this storm will take just south
of the CWA during the day...lifting ENE of the area thru 12z Monday.

Based on moisture/temp profiles...the region will see freezing
fog/rain/drizzle develop before a transition over to moderate to
heavy snow. Looking for the transition to occur from west to east
with eastern zones seeing late afternoon/early evening start.

Wind profiles as this system passes still looks good for the region
to see gusts reaching up to 50 mph. This will create blizzard
conditions. Have upgraded the current Winter Storm Warning to a
Blizzard Warning...with a segmented transition. Start in the warning
wording based on expected changeover/timing.

Snowfall is expected to become moderate to heavy at times this
afternoon and evening...and based on latest track...have highest
totals still north of Interstate 70 where 5-8 inches is possible
along with locally higher amounts near 10-12 inches. South of the
Interstate...4-7 inches. A few hundredths of an inch of ice is also
expected before transition to snow.

Going into Monday...morning hours will have central and eastern
zones seeing a continued slow transition to msunny/sunny conditions
as high pressure returns over the region...lasting thru Tuesday

For temps...daytime highs temps today will range from the mid 20s to
mid 30s warmest east. Monday and Tuesday will mainly see 30s for
highs...with some southern locales possibly reaching around 40F.
Overnight lows will mainly range from the mid teens thru the mid
20s...warmest east.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM MST Sun Jan 21 2018

Upper ridge axis will move across the central plains Wednesday and
Thursday resulting in dry and warm conditions. Any lingering snow
cover may cause a few areas to see cooler temperatures. Next
trough moves through on Friday with a chance for light snow.
Models have been trending down on amounts which were already light
anyway, so this may not even warrant an advisory with only a light
dusting. It will be windy on the backside Friday night and
Saturday as ridge rebuilds. Saturday will be dry with temperatures
near to slightly below normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1045 PM MST Sat Jan 20 2018

For Kgld, mvfr conditions will start the period and become ifr
around 12z. The winds will be north at around 10 knots. From 12z
to 17z the conditions will ifr with freezing drizzle and fog as
north winds of near 10 knots continue. At 17z the transitions
begins. Lifr conditions will begin with freezing drizzle becoming
snow by 19z. From 17z to 19z north winds will increase from 14 to
19 knots with gusts increasing from 23 to 32 knots. This will
cause blowing snow as well. At 00z lifr conditions will continue
through the period in snow and blowing snow as north winds
increase to 28 knots with gusts to near 40 knots.

For Kmck, vfr conditions begin the period with north winds of near
8 knots. At 08z lifr conditions develop at north winds of 10 knots
continue. From 13z to 18z conditions will barely come up to mvfr
with freezing drizzle and north winds of near 11 knots. At 18z
lifr conditions return and continue for the remainder of the
period. North winds start out near 18 knots then increase to
around 20 knots with gusts to near 27 knots at 20z. Between 18z
and 20z the precipitation transitions from drizzle to freezing
drizzle and snow with some blowing snow also possible. At 00z the
precipitation will be all snow. The  will lower in blowing snow
as north winds increase to 25 knots with gusts to near 35 knots.


KS...Blizzard Warning until 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ Monday for KSZ001>004-

CO...Blizzard Warning until 5 AM MST Monday for COZ090>092.

NE...Blizzard Warning until 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ Monday for NEZ079>081.



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