Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 220928
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
228 AM MST THU JAN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MST THU JAN 22 2015

AS OF 3 AM CST...2 AM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. SOME CLEARING WAS OBSERVED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO...A TREND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S. WINDS ARE WEST AT 5 TO
10 MPH. ACCORDING TO LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE PRIMARY
DISTURBANCE THAT HAS LED TO A MAJOR WINTER STORM SOUTH OF THE REGION
WAS LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO...HEADING EAST. A SUBSIDENT REGION IS
MOVING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THIS MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST.

FOR THIS SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
A WARMING TREND IS LIKELY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
TODAY...THE WARMING TEND BEGINS AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. SOME MORNING CLOUDS CLEAR BY NOON
LEAVING SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE CLIMB A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST BUT 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS
THROUGH WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THESE PASSAGES...ONE ON
FRIDAY AND ONE SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN INCREASED
NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A GLANCE AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT THERE MAY BE SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WITH THE TROUGHS. HOWEVER...SURFACE DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT
ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND. TEMPERATURES WARM EACH DAY WITH
HIGHS FRIDAY FORECAST IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. SATURDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MST THU JAN 22 2015

BENIGN AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SO THE MAIN
PARAMETER TO LOOK AT WILL BE TEMPERATURES...MAINLY HIGH
TEMPERATURES. NOT A CUT AND DRIED FORECAST DUE TO A FEW FACTORS.
FIRST MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAR EAST AND HOW MUCH THEY BUILD
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. CURRENT PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE SHARPER AND
FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS IN WHICH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN LEAD THE
PACK.

NEXT DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS HOW FAST THEY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THEN REDEVELOP IT BACK
FURTHER WEST. ALSO IT LOOKS LIKE EVERY SINGLE DAY SOME KIND OF
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. AIR MASS WILL BE DRY BUT LOOK TO NOT HAVE A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS.

MODELS DO WARM UP 850 MB TEMPERATURES BUT DIFFER BASED ON THE
ABOVE DIFFERENCES. THE NEW INIT RAISED MAXES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AND THEN COOL IT DOWN ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THESE
TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND MADE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO THE
INIT. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY TO BE WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST WED JAN 21 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6KTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE EXPECTED THROUGH 10Z BEFORE BACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT SIMILAR SPEEDS FROM 11Z-21Z. FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS. AFTER 03Z SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
12KTS EXPECTED. BKN CLOUD BASES AROUND 5K FT THROUGH SUNRISE THEN
SKC THROUGH 03Z BEFORE SOME CIRRUS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7KTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BACK TO WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS AROUND 08Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 23Z BEFORE BACKING FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 6KTS FROM 00Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN
CLOUD BASES AROUND 5K FT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BY EARLY MORNING
WITH SKC THROUGH 00Z THEN PERHAPS SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99


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