Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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805
FXUS63 KGLD 171125
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
525 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
CLEARING AS THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT TODAY`S PRECIPITATION DEPARTS
NORTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS INCREASING ACROSS EAST COLORADO. AT THE
SURFACE...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...PREVIOUSLY OVER EAST COLORADO 24 HOURS AGO. ALOFT...
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS NOW OVER THE PLAINS WITH A DRY AIR INTRUSION
SPREADING ACROSS WEST KANSAS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST COLORADO.

RELATIVELY CALM WEATHER RETURNS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS
THE GREAT PLAINS FOR SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEHIND THE LOW MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CURRENTLY DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY SEVERE WEATHER BUT SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT PROPAGATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. BEHIND
THE FRONT...ANTICIPATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND
FALLING TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 40S ARE
ADVERTISED WITH THIS PACKAGE AS BREEZY CONDITIONS AND CLOUD COVER
WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT.

ANOTHER DAY OF CALM WEATHER IS FORECAST MONDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT
TO THE SOUTH. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S...OR 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE PRIMARY FEATURE TO
WATCH MONDAY IS AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE...STRONG MOIST AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH RETURN
FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PROCESS SETS THE STAGE FOR
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH AND FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...INTO THE 75TH PERCENTILE OR NEARING 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL DEPENDING WHICH PIECE OF GUIDANCE IS USED. A
CONSISTENT RAINFALL PATTERN HAS BEEN NOTED WITHIN GLOBAL AND HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS THE LAST FEW RUNS. INDICATIONS ARE A WIDESPREAD
SWATH OF RAIN DEVELOPS MONDAY EVENING OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...SLOWLY
SPREADING EAST TUESDAY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. SIDED WITH STRONG EVIDENCE THAT WE WILL
OBSERVE RAIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING
OVER AN INCH. SOME LOCATIONS COULD OBSERVE AS HIGH AS TWO INCHES
ACROSS EAST COLORADO. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDY AND RAINY WEATHER...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL BE LOW NORMAL...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 20-25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT MAY DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015

SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES SLIGHTLY. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN LATE ON WEDNESDAY AND DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVERNIGHT MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL ERODE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF ARIZONA AND EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHEN THIS TAKES PLACE ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN
THE 60-65KTS RANGE PER THE GFS AND 45-50KTS PER THE ECMWF. CAPE VALUES
VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING 200-800
J/KG CAPES AND THE GFS INDICATING UP TO 1700 J/KG. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS DUE TO A TREND
TOWARD HIGHER CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES MAINLY FROM THE GFS. THE ECMWF
SHOWS THE SAME TREND JUST MUCH LESS PRONOUNCED. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH FOR SATURDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH TAF PERIOD. DEPARTING UPPER LOW
PULLED CLOUD COVER NORTH AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE CLOUDS RETURNING
UNTIL THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR KMCK. FELT THREAT WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT VCTS
MENTION. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY THIS MORNING...THEN WEAKEN
BY SUNSET. COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE MVFR STRATUS BRIEFLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. GUIDANCE IS NOT HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT RIGHT NOW AS IT
CONFINES STRATUS FURTHER WEST OVER COLORADO.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TML
AVIATION...RRH



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