000
FXUS63 KGLD 141137
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
537 AM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL THEY PRODUCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE SECONDARY CONCERN
OF TODAYS FIRE WEATHER. BOTH OF THESE ARE DEPENDENT ON WHERE
BOUNDARIES END UP. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. PATTERN GETS COMPLICATED
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THERE ALSO
APPEARS TO BE A TAP OF MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE. MODELS WERE HAVING TROUBLE
AT MID LEVELS. WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER TROUGH...THEY HAD
THE SYSTEM TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST. THAT ALSO THE CASE WITH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. OVERALL THE CANADIAN/UKMET
FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF WERE THE LEAST OFFENSIVE OF THE MODEL SUITE.
NOT ACCOUNTING FOR MESOSCALE INFLUENCES...THE SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. AT THIS
TIME SREF AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
MODELS TENDED TO HAVE THE QPF TOO FAR SOUTH AT 06Z. ALTHOUGH ITS
AMOUNTS APPEAR OVERDONE...THE GFS DOES PRETTY WELL WITH THE AREA.

VERY COMPLEX PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH MODELS DEPICTING MULTIPLE
SCENARIOS AS TO WHERE THE VARIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARIES END UP. ALSO
THIS ALSO COULD BE CHANGED AT ANY TIME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO
THE MESOSCALE INFLUENCES FROM WHEREVER THE THUNDERSTORMS DECIDE TO
DEVELOP. ALSO COMPLEX INTERACTION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES MAKES
THIS FORECAST UNCERTAIN AS WELL. AS A RESULT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND OVERALL OUTCOME OF THIS FORECAST.

TODAY/TONIGHT...EARLY TENDENCY WAS TO HAVE THE FRONT THAT IS GOING TO
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO BE
FURTHER NORTH. THE BETTER PERFORMING MODELS AT THE SURFACE WERE THE
BEST INDICATORS OF THIS. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET BEGINS TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA. ALSO SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO
AFFECTS THE NORTHWEST HALF AS WELL. SO AS A RESULT...PULLED THE
HIGHER POPS FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD. CONSIDERING THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND THAT THE STEERING FLOW IS NEARLY PERPENDICULAR
TO THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE FRONT COULD
GET A LOT OF RAINFALL. FRONTAL POSITION AND WHEN CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION DEVELOP WILL AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES. IN GENERAL
KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME TO A LITTLE COOLER. LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF THE FRONT LOOK TO HAVE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. REFER TO THE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER SYSTEM NOW OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS
MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FROM DURING THE MORNING. THEN IT LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA MAY STAY QUIET/DRY UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ONE
CAVEAT TO THIS IS ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT MAY CAUSE EARLIER
DEVELOPMENT. AS IT STANDS NOW...DESPITE BEING PRETTY UNSTABLE...THE
MID AND UPPER LIFT DO NOT INCREASE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND
ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE NIGHT.

RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET LOOKS CLOSE OR OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE AREA FROM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS
JET LIFT REMAINS OR GETS STRONG THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE
STRONGEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATER HALF OF
THE NIGHT. ALSO FRONT IS HUNG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLE COULD BE MADE EVEN
HIGHER. CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND SLOWER STORM MOVEMENT. DEPENDING ON IF THE
STORM MOVEMENT IS FAVORABLE TO THE FRONT...COULD EVEN ENHANCE THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND SEVERE THREAT AS WELL.

COOLER AIR MASS MAY BE IN PLACE...EVEN FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT I
HAVE IT. THAT COMBINED WITH AN UNFAVORABLE WIND FIELD FOR A BIG
WARMUP...LOWERED MAXES SOME.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME KIND OF JET LIFT REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO A WEST TO NORTHWEST
WITH MULTIPLE SMALL SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH. THAT
COMBINED WITH AN UNCERTAIN BOUNDARY POSITION...MAKES IT VERY HARD TO
PIN DOWN A FAVORED AREA. ALTHOUGH AT FACE VALUE THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA LOOKS LIKE IT HAS THE BEST CHANCE. LATEST MODEL DATA
SUPPORTED THE POP FORECAST AND THAT COMBINED WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
LED ME TO NOT CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT EXPECTED. LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
AROUND WILL MAKE FOR COOLER MAXES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM. AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY.

THE MEAN POSITION OF THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE...BUT A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTATION NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS
BOUNDARY MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT...ALBEIT NOT AS DEEP AS PREVIOUS
DAYS. WITH SUBTLE FORCING FROM WEAK TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN RESPONSE...LEE SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES
MORE PRONOUNCED AND DRYLINE SHARPENS. A STRONG CAPPING EML MAY
SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL MORE SUBSTANTIAL
FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD. GFS
AND ECMWF ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OR TIMING OF THE
TROUGH AND WHEN IT WILL BEGIN TO MORE SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER. THUS POPS ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD BUT MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THE CURRENT DAY SEVEN
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

BOTH TAF LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY PROGRESSING
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING AT BOTH GLD AND
MCK. CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION IN THE 21Z TO 03Z
PERIOD IS LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING. SCTTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND RESULTANT OUTFLOW FROM STORMS WILL
FURTHER COMPLICATE THE WIND FORECAST. VARIABILITY IN DIRECTION
AND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCLUDED
VCTS AT BOTH SITES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT

TOUGH CALL TODAY ON WHERE TO UPGRADE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING. IT ALL DEPENDS ON HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
MOVES. EARLY ON IN THE SOUTH THE WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH
GETS CLOSER THE WINDS DECREASE AS DO THE DEWPOINTS. IT COULD BE
CLOSE TO IF THREE HOURS OF CRITERIA WILL BE FULFILLED. ALSO
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY NORTH OF THE LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. SO BASED ON MY BEST IDEA OF WHERE THE FRONT IS GOING TO
BE...CHOSE TO CANCEL THE WATCH FOR SHERIDAN...GRAHAM...AND WALLACE
AND UPGRADE THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM MDT /9
     PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ027>029-041-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...BRB
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER