Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 260949
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
349 AM MDT Wed Apr 26 2017
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM MDT Wed Apr 26 2017
After a period of warm weather and the emergence of new spring
vegetation across the area, temperatures around freezing are
expected again after midnight tonight through the early morning
hours on Thursday. Skies will clear out from west to east this
afternoon before more clouds can move in from the west late this
evening. With a period of mostly clear skies and light winds
after sunset, expect temperatures in the lower to mid 30s
overnight with areas of frost developing. Have issued a frost
advisory for those areas along and east of a line from Stratton,
Nebraska to Hill City, Kansas between 1 AM and 9 AM Thursday
morning as a result.
High clouds begin to increase from west to east overnight tonight
ahead of a short wave trough that will be moving east of the
Rockies and across the high plains on Thursday along with a
surface low that deepens over the SE Colorado/NE New
Mexico/Panhandle region. An area of precipitation is expected to
develop north of a warm frontal boundary that is pushed north
as the surface low begins to move across Texas and the short wave
trough aloft moves through the central high plains. A few
thunderstorms are also possible Thursday afternoon and evening.
As temperatures approach freezing over eastern Colorado after
midnight Thursday night, there is the potential for a rain and
snow mix over eastern Colorado early Friday morning. Rain is
expected to continue across the forecast area on Friday with rain
changing to snow Friday night mainly across eastern Colorado.
Any snow accumulations Friday night are expected to be light.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 AM MDT Wed Apr 26 2017
The long term period will start out with a strong closed low system
sweeping across the four corner states and moving northeast through
the CWA. This system is expected to bring colder temperatures and
precipitation to the region. As the closed low moves towards and
over the region, there will be multiple transitions from rain, to
rain and snow, to snow, and back. With the colder temperatures in
the early morning and overnight hours, that is when snow chances
will be at the highest. Current snow amounts are generally below one
inch, with the potential for up to two inches in far Cheyenne and
Kit Carson counties in Colorado early Saturday morning. This storm
system is expected to impact the region through Saturday and a good
portion of Sunday before ejecting northeast out of the region. It is
worth mentioning that the models are still showing some uncertainty
regarding the exact locations with the highest impacts, and this is
largely due to the expansiveness of the storm. Currently, the EC has
a much larger area of impact due to the closed low being much
larger, whereas, the GFS has a smaller closed low. So impacts could
potentially be limited. This system will continue to be monitored as
the end of the week approaches.
After that large system moves out the area, models are showing a
drier trend Sunday night through the majority of Monday. This is
primarily due to upper level northwest flow moving over the region.
Late Monday night into the beginning half of Tuesday shows another
low pressure system moving out of southwestern Canada. Models are
still showing differences with this system but there is potential
for another round of precipitation.
Temperatures during the period will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s
during the day on Saturday with low temperatures dropping into the
upper 20s to mid 30s. Sunday will warm up slightly into the upper
40s to mid 50s, with continued cold low temperatures in the low to
mid 30s. Monday and Tuesday will be in the 60s.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1057 PM MDT Tue Apr 25 2017
VFR conditions likely throughout most of the forecast period. As
of 5z...stratus has cleared KMCK and should clear out of KGLD
over the next few hours. Anticipate increasing ceilings throughout
the night with clear skies likely by late tomorrow morning. No
precipitation is to be expected as drier air moves in. North winds
may be gusty before dropping off in 3-4 hours. North winds pick
up again with daytime mixing by late morning. Light and variable
winds can be anticipated this evening as a weak surface high
passes over and a Lee trough begins to develop along the Rockies.
KS...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ003-004-016.
NE...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for NEZ080-081.