Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 272230

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
330 PM MST Sun Nov 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 125 PM MST Sun Nov 27 2016

A cold front continues to traverse the region this afternoon. Patchy
blowing dust and low visibility along Interstate 70 has caused a
multi-vehicle accident near Edson. Winds along and ahead of the
front are gusting to near 50 mph out of the southwest with post-
frontal winds out of the west-northwest, also gusting to near 50

Windy conditions are expected to continue through just
before sunset. High temperatures have already occurred to the west
of the front and will fall through the afternoon with afternoon high
temperatures generally in the 40s to lower 50s. To the east, highs
will climb into the middle 60s. Slight chc PoPs remain in the
forecast for the eastern most portions of the CWA through mid-
afternoon with chance PoPs in northern Yuma county and the northern
fringes of our Nebraska counties through early evening.

For tonight, temperatures will fall into the 20s to lower 30s across
the entire CWA. Westerly to northwesterly flow will continue through
the overnight hours with winds shifting northwesterly as we approach
sunrise. High temperatures Monday will be cooler with highs
generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1130 AM MST Sun Nov 27 2016

Monday night-Tuesday...another batch of moisture/clouds moves down
toward the interstate from the north during the night and completely
covers the area from northwest to southeast during the day as upper
axis attached to upper low centered over Minnesota moves through.
This will also bring another shot of colder air to the area.
Northwest winds increase windy category during the late morning
through afternoon hours with 800mb winds in the 30-40kt range.
Right now no precipitation is expected despite the increase in
moisture. Low level lapse rates are poor and low/mid level lift
and upper jet energy lacking. Low temperatures should range from
low to upper 20s.High temperatures in the mid 30s to near 40 in
far eastern Colorado with low/mid 40s elsewhere.

Tuesday night-Wednesday night...forecast area remains under
northwest flow aloft as upper low slowly lifts northeast into
Canada. Some upper ridging starts to move east toward the
continental divide. Should see a decrease in cloudiness from west to
east during the night with a sunny/mostly sunny sky during the day.
Low temperatures in the upper teens to mid 20s Tuesday night with
low teens to around 20 Wednesday night. High temperatures again in
the mid 30s to around 40 west, low 40s elsewhere across the area.
Will again have to deal with breezy/windy northwest winds during the
day. Some of the area will have these winds Tuesday night. Much
lighter winds Wednesday night.

Thursday-Thursday night...GFS/ECMWF continue to advertise an upper
level disturbance moving southeast toward the great basin early in
the day becoming es better organized and starts to close off late in
the day with a track continuing south into southern California
during the night. Only impact(s) on our area will be an increase
in cloudiness. High temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s with
lows in the mid to upper teens.

Friday-Saturday...the upper level low that is forecast to be over
southern California at the beginning of the period continues to move
south into Central Mexico by the end of the day Saturday. Clouds
increase from the south and southwest ahead of the low and for now
precipitation chances stay just south of the area. High
temperatures both days in the mid 30s to low 40s. Low
temperatures in the low teens to around 20.

Sunday...with the upper low well south into central Mexico our focus
shifts back to our area where we will be under northwest flow aloft.
Presently it looks dry with little in the way of cloudiness. After
morning lows in the mid teens to low 20s afternoon highs should
reach the low to around 50.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 330 PM MST Sun Nov 27 2016

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.
Both terminals should see a west wind 10-12kts from taf issuance
through mid morning Monday before slowly veering to the northwest
and increasing in speed with gusts in the 25 to 35kt range
possible. Around 23z winds lose their gusts with sustained speeds
in the 12-13kt range. KMCK will have a few wraparound showers in
the vicinity or at the terminal for the first few hours of the
forecast otherwise both terminals expected to be precipitation




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