Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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861
FXUS63 KGLD 061141
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
441 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES
THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER AND THE WINDS
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.
WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY BETWEEN
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION AND THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA THAT MOVES OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...EXPECT TO SEE
WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
EVENING UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT INVERSION OVER THE SNOW FIELD CAN
DECREASE THE WINDS SPEEDS SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS MAY
INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD BE RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND THE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BEGINS TO TRANSLATE
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD.

MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM OVER THE EXTENSIVE SNOW
FIELD...SO HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE OR HAVE
GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS DUE TO A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BUT ANY DISTURBANCES THAT WOULD BRING PRECIPITATION OR FORCE
COLD FRONTS THROUGH SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SEEM LIKELY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARMEST OVER EAST COLORADO AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
SNOW SHOULD MELT FIRST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR MUCH MORE
EASILY. COOLER TEMPERATURES...YET STILL ABOVE NORMAL...ARE
ANTICIPATED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHERE SNOWPACK SHOULD REMAIN FOR
AT LEAST PART OF THE PERIOD.

ON SATURDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY SLIP SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW FAR WEST THIS FRONT WILL
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE DRY WHEN IT PASSES BUT
HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES COOL IS THE PRIMARY UNANSWERED QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTINESS POSSIBLE
TODAY...OTHERWISE LIGHT WEST WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE
AFTER 08Z OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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