Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 151101 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Goodland KS
401 AM MST Thu Feb 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 345 AM MST Thu Feb 15 2018

Synoptic Overview: A weak surface low over northern KS will
progress to the MS river valley today as a de- amplifying
shortwave lifts rapidly northeast from the Central Plains to the
Upper Great Lakes. Canadian high pressure will build quickly southward
through the Dakotas into the Central Plains this afternoon and
evening in assoc/w subsidence in the wake of shortwave energy
progressing east of the Rockies /ejecting across the Northern
Plains/. Meanwhile, additional shortwave energy (in northern
CA/NV this morning) will de-amplify as it progresses across the
central Rockies into the Central/Northern Plains this afternoon
and evening. A series of small amplitude waves will traverse the
region in NW flow aloft Fri-Sat, with flow aloft backing to the
west later this weekend as more substantial shortwave energy moves
ashore the PAC NW.

Today/Tonight: A cold front will surge southward through the Tri-
State region today as Canadian high pressure progresses from the
Dakotas to the Central Plains. Highs today will largely be a
function of 1) cold advection in the wake of the frontal passage
this afternoon (esp to the north) and 2) increasing mid/upper
level cloud cover from the W/WSW. At this time expect highs
ranging from the upper 40s (N) to upper 50s/lower 60s (S). Winds
will become NNW at 15 to 20 mph late this morning and early this
afternoon as a weak sfc low progresses east of the region. In the
wake of the cold frontal passage, winds will veer to the N/NNE
and increase to 20-30 mph sustained with gusts up to 40 mph for
several hours late this afternoon and evening (primarily between
00-06Z) when cold advection /pressure rises/ are progged to be
most pronounced. A short period of light precipitation (SN or RA=>SN)
will be possible in the same time-frame, however, due to the
brief/light nature of precipitation in addition to uncertainty
with regard to p-type at onset, little accumulation is
anticipated. At most, a half inch to an inch may be possible,
primarily in eastern Colorado. Temperatures tonight are expected
to fall into the teens, driven primarily by cold advection.

Fri/Fri night: Canadian high pressure will progress eastward from
the Central Plains to the MS river valley in this period as a lee
cyclone develops in advance of additional shortwave energy
progressing toward the region in NW flow aloft. Southerly return
flow will develop/strengthen from west-east Friday afternoon,
with highs ranging from the 30s to 40s, coldest in northeast
portions of the area. Southerly flow may reach 20-30 mph sustained
with gusts to 35-40 mph for a short period late Fri afternoon and
evening, particularly S/SW of I-70. Expect moderating temps with lows
in the 20s.

Sat/Sat Night: Winds will shift from S to NW on Saturday as the
aforementioned shortwave energy /attendant lee cyclone/ progress
east of the Central Plains. However, in the absence of a cold
upstream airmass, expect neutral thermal advection with highs Sat
in the 40s to perhaps lower 50s (S/SE). Winds will back to the
south and strengthen to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph
Saturday night as flow aloft backs to the west, a sfc trough
deepens in the lee of the Rockies, and the MSLP gradient tightens
over the High Plains.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM MST Thu Feb 15 2018

Sunday will be warm and dry. Frontal timing has sped up a little
compared to previous runs and will arrive Sunday night. Prefrontal
warming and breezy southwest winds may combine for an elevated
fire weather day, but currently wind speeds are below critical
criteria. Arctic air continues to spill into the area on Monday.
High temperatures will only reach the 20s and 30s. Upper trough
axis will swing through Monday night and early Tuesday bringing a
chance for light snow. GFS shows only very light amounts while the
ECMWF is a little more optimistic with a few inches. A broad
upper trough will be carved out across the central CONUS through
midweek with continued below normal temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 345 AM MST Thu Feb 15 2018

A period of MVFR ceilings and light precipitation will be
possible late this afternoon/evening (primarily 00-06Z Fri) in the
wake of a strong cold frontal passage. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected to prevail. WNW winds at 12-15 knots will veer to the
NNW at 15-20 knots with the aforementioned cold frontal passage
this afternoon. Winds will further veer to the N/NNE and increase
to 20-25 knots with gusts up to 30-35 knots for a period this
evening (00-06Z) in association with strong pressure rises behind the
front. Winds are expected to rapidly weaken to 10-15 knots by the
end of the TAF period (09-12Z Fri) as Canadian high pressure
builds southward through NE into KS and the MSLP gradient weakens




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