Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 141905
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
105 PM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- While a transition from rain to wet snow remains possible in
  far western portions of Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties (CO) this
  afternoon and evening, hazardous travel conditions associated
  with accumulating snow and breezy (25-35 mph) N winds will
  likely be confined to higher elevations of the Palmer Divide
  (west of Seibert/Flagler).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 348 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Tonight-Tonight: Model guidance continues to indicate that
moderate to heavy precipitation will develop along the Colorado
Front Range and Palmer Divide today-tonight.. as shortwave
energy progresses northward around the eastern periphery of a
stalled upper level low over the Desert Southwest and southern
Pacific Coast. Recent runs of the GFS, ECMWF, HRRR, NAM, NAM
NEST and RAP all indicate that heavy precipitation will be
relegated to areas situated in close proximity to the Rockies
(i.e. I-25 corridor and adjacent portions of the Palmer Divide).
Regional observations and mesoanalysis data indicate a
thoroughly above-freezing airmass (850 mb temperatures 4-6C) in
place over the Tri-State area this morning. With relatively
warm, above-freezing low-level thermal/wetbulb profiles,
widespread cloud cover and little in the way of horizontal
thermal advection, low-level airmass modification will
predominately be a function of precipitation (e.g. evaporative
cooling and melting).. and precipitation type will be rate-
driven in nature. Given the depth and magnitude of above
freezing thermal profiles.. and that virtually all guidance
indicates that heavy and/or persistent moderate precipitation
will largely (if not entirely) be confined west of the NWS
Goodland CWA -- rain is anticipated to be the primary
precipitation type. In far western / higher elevation portions
of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties (mainly west of Seibert)..
where above freezing thermal profiles are shallower and precip
chances/amounts are greater.. a transition to wet snow and may
occur.. and hazardous travel conditions associated with wet snow
and breezy (25-35 mph) N winds are possible, mainly west of
Seibert.

Fri-Fri night: Aside from a weakening MSLP-H85 height
gradient.. as surface high pressure over the Dakotas (tonight)
builds southward over the Central Plains (Fri).. expect little
change in the synoptic pattern (compared to today). With little
in the way of horizontal thermal advection, temperatures will
largely be a function of cloud cover. Expect highs ranging from
the mid 40s to mid-upper 50s.. coolest in western portions of
the area where thick overcast may persist for much of the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 104 PM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Into the work week, the area will undergo a drying/warming trend
with above normal temperatures expected.

At the start of the long term period, the upper low center remains
over the Desert Southwest with high pressure centered over the
Pacific Northwest. Low pressure in the vicinity of Quebec into the
Great Lakes region extends a trough over the eastern CONUS. Around
the mid-week timeframe, model guidance suggests the upper level
trough, which has been meandering around the Four Corners region,
will progress eastward. With this, surface low pressure in the lee
of the Rockies will also progress through, bringing slight chance
(currently less than 25%) for rain late in the period. A warming
trend to above normal temperatures will be underway, with forecast
highs through the period generally in the 60s and lows generally in
the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1105 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are anticipated from taf issuance through
19z with winds from the north gusting to around 26kts or so.
From 20z-00z, sub VFR cigs are expected. Light rain is likely
and could produce visibility reductions. Winds will be from the
north gusting 25-30kts. After 01z, VFR conditions return. Winds
subside to around 10kts from the north-northeast, backing
slightly to the north at similar speeds after 12z.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. There may
be a few hours in the 18z-21z timeframe where cigs fall below
VFR category. Northerly winds gusting to 30kts at taf issuance
will continue through the afternoon with winds subsiding below
12kts after 03z or so for the rest of the period. There are low
chances for light rain showers from taf issuance through early
this evening with no impact on aviation.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BV
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...99


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