Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 290817
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
217 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ANOTHER NICE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S...UNDER WINDY CONDITIONS.
THE CWA STILL REMAINS IN BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST AND SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST...CREATING TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES GIVING THE AREA WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...ANY DIURNAL CUMULUS OVER THE CWA AT THIS TIME
WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...ALLOWING FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT JUST LIKE THE AREA HAD LAST NIGHT. LOOKING FOR
CLEARING CONDITIONS TO PROVIDE A NICE COOL NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROPPING INTO MID 50S WEST UP TO NEAR 60F IN EASTERN ZONES.
THE TRI STATE REGION WILL ALSO SEE WIND GUSTS REMAINING AFT 00Z
MONDAY...BUT DROP OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER...CLOSEST TO 03Z
MONDAY(900 PM MDT) AND REMAIN IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE.

ON MONDAY...CLEAR CONDITIONS AT THE ONSET DURING THE MORNING WILL
GIVE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA A GREAT START TO THE DAY AS SEEN OVER
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS HOWEVER WILL BE LAST IN SERIES OF GREAT
SETUPS FOR THE DAY AHEAD...AS A BROAD LOW OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY IS SET TO TREK EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. CLOUD COVER FROM
OUTER BAND OF SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST. THESE CLOUDS WILL PUT THE AREA INTO SITUATION
SEEING EARLY DAYTIME HIGHS DESPITE WINDY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
WITH EXPECTED INCREASING CLOUDS...HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
MODEL GUIDANCE.

WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...MODELS DO BRING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RW/TRW TO DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY THAT SETS UP WEST BY
MIDDAY HOURS. THIS BAND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP
WILL STAY OVER WESTERN AREAS INITIALLY DUE TO N-S ORIENTATION/MOVEMENT
OF SYSTEM...BUT SHIFT MORE EAST DURING AFTERNOON WITH MOVEMENT OF
PARENT LOW. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS DO ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY...PROMPTING MENTION OF INCREASING WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON IN
THE 40-45MPH RANGE. WITH THIS JET COMES ENOUGH MODEL INSTABILITY TO
WARRANT MENTION CHANCE FOR SEVERE TRW...ENHANCED BY CWA BEING PUT IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. LOOKING FOR
BULK OF ANY PRECIP TO OCCUR OVER WESTERN ZONES...WITH BULK OF ACTION
TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. WITH THESE STORMS COMES THE CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ENHANCED BY
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME/HIGH PWAT VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FOR THURSDAY...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AREA ON THURSDAY...BRINGING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  WITH STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND A
LACK OF CAPE IN THE VERTICAL PROFILE OVER THE REGION...RAIN SHOWERS
ARE MORE PROBABLE THAN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

ONCE THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS AREA...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATING THE WEATHER
INTO NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR FRIDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT
AVERAGE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA.  HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL STATUS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE INTERMITTENTLY GUSTY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING
SUBSTANTIALLY AGAIN AFTER 15Z. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPRAISES OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY
EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR GLD AFTER
21Z WITH PREVAILING THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z. HAVE BROUGHT IN A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 02Z AT MCK.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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