Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 151627
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1027 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. SATELLITE SHOWING STRATUS DECREASING
FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THAT IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN WHAT
FORECAST HAD. ALSO LATEST HRRR/RAP/NAM WERE ALSO SLOWER DECREASING
THE CLOUD COVER AND LOOK TO HOLD ONTO CLOUD OVER WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. FOG LOOKS
TO ALSO BE HANGING ON LONGER IN EASTERN COLORADO SO KEPT THE FOG
GOING THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.

HOWEVER LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH AND EAST SHOULD A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUN HERE SOON. SO THOSE LOCATIONS LOOK TO WARM UP MORE THAN
EXPECTED. SO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY BASED ON THE AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER BUT
HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS WELL AS AREA OF FOG FOR
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSH THRU NORTHERN
ZONES ATTM WITH EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS/FOG IN MANY LOCALES. WITH LOW
CEILINGS REMAINING...CHANCE FOR AT LEAS TA BRIEF SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE. BACK EDGE OF CLDS IS UP IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SHOULD
PUSH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY MIDDAY. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S WITH AREAS OF FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP. CWA DOES AWAIT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE REGION
THIS MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS SOME EASTWARD PUSH WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO PLAN ON IT SCRAPING CWA GIVING AREA ONLY A SL CHANCE FOR
RW/TRW DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY/TIME OF DAY ARRIVAL. SYSTEM WILL
SINK SOUTH OF CWA BY MIDDAY...WITH SLOW CLRING GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HRS...DUE TO LOW LEVEL CLDS BEHIND FRONT. LINGERING CLDS
FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLRING
SKIES AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
SETS UP TRAPPING MOISTURE....BUT FOG AREA COULD BE LIMITED WITH
EXPECTED WIND FLOW. INITIALLY...SOME BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS BEHIND
FRONT WILL BRING SOME 20-25 MPH GUSTS THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT
SWING AROUND TO THE SSE 5-10MPH OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY FOG
WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN ZONES WHERE LOWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR. HIGHS
TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

FOR TUESDAY ON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW
LEVEL INVERSION CARRYING INTO TUESDAY MORNING...SO PLAN ON KEEPING
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THRU 15Z BUT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT DURING THE MORNING HRS...ANY FOG COULD BE
LIMITED/CONSTRAINED. REST OF THE DAY WILL HAVE BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. STRONG WAA ON THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMUP TO BEGIN OVER THE AREA AFTER
MONDAY/S COOLER TEMPS.

MAINLY THE SAME SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ENSUE GOING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ONLY CAVEAT IN LATEST MODELS SHOWS WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH THE MVS SE ACROSS THE PLAINS. BETTER DYNAMICS WILL LIE TO OUR
EAST AS THIS ARRIVES...SO PLAN ON KEEP SL CHANCE FOR RW/TRW FOR
NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES...CLRING OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO
CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR MOST AREAS AS BUFKIT STILL HINTS
AT INVERSION FOR AREA.AGAIN WINDS WILL PLAY ROLE IN ITS
DEVELOPMENT...SO AREAL POTENTIAL FOR DECREASE IN COVERAGE EXITS.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC TROUGH COMING OFF THE
ROCKIES...COMBINED WITH SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST HAS MODELS HINTING AT
CONVERGENCE AREA OVER THE PLAINS WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDER. BULK OF
THIS DOES SET UP CLOSER TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY DUE TO
PLACEMENT OF SFC HIGH...WILL ONLY KEEP ANY POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES
AT THIS TIME.

WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPS FOR
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80F TUESDAY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW
60S. ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TEMPS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE TRI STATE AREA.  WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SEPTEMBER.  WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH
LIMITED CLOUD COVER THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CONUS.
DIFFERENCES AS TO DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS AS WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS.  THE GFS BRINGS IN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING OVER THE GREAT BASIN
REGION...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS ONE MAIN TROUGH MORE TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY AND FORCING
ALOFT ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A
BIT FROM THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSION
ALOFT...TIMING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE SURFACE IS A BIT
TOUGH.  THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH TO THE EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
SATURDAY.

AS TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION ON SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE.  CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
STILL EXIST AS SOME UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. SUNDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SITES THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN VFR BY 21Z. LOOKING FOR BKN005-015 TRANSITIONING
TO SCT015 SCT200. VCSH AND 3-6SM FG THRU MIDDAY. WINDS NORTHERLY
10-20 KTS SHIFTING TO ENE BY MIDDAY THEN TO THE SOUTH AFT 00Z
TUESDAY AROUND 10 KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/MK
AVIATION...JN


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