Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 272255

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
455 PM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 148 PM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017

An upper level low will slowly slide eastward into the Four
Corners region tonight then into portions of the Southern Rockies
tomorrow. Winds at the surface will shift to the southeast tonight
and continue through tomorrow. This upslope flow in addition of
increased moisture in the low to mid levels will lead to
increasing cloudiness tonight with mostly cloudy skies through
tomorrow. There is also a possibility of lowered visibility
tomorrow morning. Precipitation chances increase across the
forecast area after midnight and continue through at least
tomorrow. The best chance of precipitation looks to be across
Kansas and during tomorrow afternoon. As for temperatures, lows
tonight look to dip into the lower 40s with highs tomorrow only
reaching to around 50 degrees due to the mostly cloudy skies and

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 148 PM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The upper level low continues to slowly trek eastward and into the
Southern Plains Tuesday night then into the Mid Mississippi Valley
by Thursday afternoon. Precipitation chances continue across the
CWA through Wednesday then taper off from west to east Wednesday
night through Thursday morning. Cloudy skies are also expected
through Wednesday night decreasing in coverage from west to east
Thursday morning. A dry pattern is then expected for the remainder
of Thursday into Friday afternoon. The next system moves into the
area Friday evening into the weekend. As of now, this system looks
to take the same track as this first one. But with this system
being out more than 4 days, confidence in timing and track is low.
Temperatures through the Long term forecast look to only reach
into the upper 40s Wednesday then into the 50s Thursday and
Friday. The area then cools down this weekend as the next storm
system moves into the area. Lows will generally be in the 30s with
the exception of Tuesday night where lower 40s will be possible
across portions of northwest Kansas.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 450 PM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected from taf issuance
through approximately 06z with winds from the southeast at 8 to
13kts, highest at KGLD. After 07z stratus and fog will move west
reaching KMCK around 07z and KGLD around 09z creating VLIFR
conditions through the rest of the taf period. A weather
disturbance is forecast to bring increasing moisture above the
saturated boundary layer from the west and southwest this evening
through tomorrow ahead of a low pressure system moving into
eastern New Mexico by the end of the period. Light to moderate
rain is expected for the evening through daytime hours. Some mid
level drying is forecast to sneak into the Goodland area at the
very end of the taf period which could bring an end or decrease
the intensity of the rainfall.




SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
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