Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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850
FXUS63 KGLD 020926
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
326 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...AND THE
AMOUNT OF TEMPERATURE RECOVERY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING
AN AMPLIFIED/COMPLICATED/SPLIT FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO
NORTH AMERICA. THE STRONG AND COMPACT SYSTEM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA LOOKS TO BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER.

AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM/CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE
JET...ESPECIALLY WITH THE JET SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING
SYSTEM FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. AT MID LEVELS...OVERALL AND WITH
THE INCOMING SYSTEM THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
CANADIAN/UKMET/GFS. THE SREF LOOKED LIKE IT WAS DOING WELL WITH THE
SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE CANADIAN WAS DOING BETTER THAN
THE OTHER OUTPUT IN REGARDS TO THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
OTHER MODELS TENDING TO BE TOO WARM.

TODAY/TONIGHT...DESPITE THE NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS...ANALYSIS AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE FORECAST WOULD INDICATE WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT FORECAST MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE
LATEST DATA AND MADE LITTLE TO NO CHANGES.

MAJORITY OF THE DATA SHOWS A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. VERY STRONG AND
COMPACT UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE LAST HALF OF THE
NIGHT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER GOOD
THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND RATHER STRONG PV ANOMALY/FORCING ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS. THE PARAMETERS TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LINE UP THE
BEST OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE COLORADO BORDER.

SREF AND GEFS PROBABILITIES WOULD SUPPORT A LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
AND THAT MATCHES UP WELL WITH WHERE THE BEST PARAMETERS LINE. SO
RAISED POPS INTO THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED JET AFFECTS THE NORTHERN
HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER THE BEST MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL LIFT ARE ALREADY OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. SO KEPT IT DRY BUT HAVE
HIGHER SILENT POPS.

CLOUDS CLEAR OUT RATHER FAST AND HAVE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. AGAIN LATEST OUTPUT MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST AND KEPT THE EXPECTED WARMING TREND IN PLACE WITH
LITTLE TO NO CHANGES MADE. WINDS DROP THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY. TENDED TO GO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH THE RIDGELINE STILL TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER THE
SURFACE WIND FIELD ONCE AGAIN IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO A VERY BIG WARMUP.
STILL SHOULD BE A DECENT WARMUP THOUGH. AGAIN LATEST DATA SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT FORECAST AND MADE LITTLE TO NO CHANGES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION ON THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS. ON FRIDAY...THE
FLOW STRENGTHENS AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THE
RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ADVANCING ONTO THE WEST COAST.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE HIGH
PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON
SATURDAY AND PUSHES FURTHER TOWARDS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS AS THE LOW APPROACHES
THE AREA AND A DRYLINE DEVELOPS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THIS SLOW MOVING LOW AND SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED
AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS RIDGING IMPACTS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO COOL INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW ADVANCES. LOW TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL STAY IN
THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND
GLD. CLOUDS COVER WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AFTER 00Z MONDAY
EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING BETWEEN 00Z-
06Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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