Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 291809
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1209 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE CURRENTLY
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT MID LEVELS...CURRENTLY THE GFS AND UKMET WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE GFS HAD THE
BEST DEPICTION OF THE HEIGHT FIELD...HIGHER HEIGHTS/STRONGER
RIDGE...OVER THE REGION. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE SREF AND
ECMWF ARE DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
GFS/NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN/SREF ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

FOR TONIGHT...RIDGE AND DEEP DRY AIR MASS REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS
THE AREA. THE HEIGHTS DO GO DOWN A LITTLE. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE
TO NO LIFT DESPITE THE MODELS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH. ALSO MODELS SHOW NO INSTABILITY. SO DRY FORECAST CONTINUED.

SO THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW COOL WILL WE GET. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS IN PLACE LAST NIGHT...MOST OF THE AREA DROPPED INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S THIS MORNING. SURFACE HIGH IS STILL NOT TOO FAR
TO THE EAST SO THE EASTERN PORTION WILL HAVE THE LIGHTEST WINDS AND
COOLEST TEMPERATURES WITH A LITTLE STRONGER WINDS IN THE WEST.

AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
STAY TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. SO EXPECT ANY STRATUS AND FOG TO
REMAIN TO THE EAST AS WELL.

FOR SUNDAY...HEIGHTS RISE SOME UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WHEN ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH. DEEP DRY LAYER REMAINS WITH A
VERY SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND CAP ARE STRONGER SO ONCE AGAIN THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY.

DEVELOPING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE FALLS AS LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST COULD CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE
TO LOW END BREEZY. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER COULD OCCUR IN THE
FAR WEST BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES.
NEW GUIDANCE SUPPORTS CURRENT FORECAST MAXES AND MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA.  GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/DGEX MODELS
ALL HAVE SOME AGREEMENT AS TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
HOWEVER...ECMWF/DGEX GUIDANCE HINTS AT A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT THAT MOVES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE LIFTING
MECHANISM.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME AVAILABLE SHEAR AND
CAPE...HOWEVER VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE DESPITE THE NEGATIVE TILT
IN OTHER MODELS.  AT ANY RATE...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE THE DISTURBANCE PASSES...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER EASTERN
TEXAS WILL BRING WARM WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  WITH SOME AVAILABLE CAPE IN THE UPPER
PROFILE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS CAN DEVELOP WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH NEAR THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...THUS MAKING A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
COMBINATION WITH A MOIST UPPER PROFILE. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING
STORMS TO BE WIDESPREAD UNDER THE STABLE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE RIDGE.

A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA AS A
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMERGES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS MAY PROVIDE
THE LIFT NEEDED TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS DO NOT SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME...BUT MORE GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS INSTEAD. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF AS TO THE PATTERN OFF THE PACIFIC COAST HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE MAIN LONGWAVE FEATURE TO BRING A WET
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AFTER THE SUN COMES UP ON SUNDAY...THESE WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING AT KGLD. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EVEN STRONGER AT BOTH SITES RIGHT AFTER THIS PERIOD
ENDS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER


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