Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 280749

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
149 AM MDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Issued at 530 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

Updated the rainfall chances for this afternoon through mid
morning Saturday based on latest data. Water vapor indicates a
small area of subsidence over the northeast quadrant of the Tri-
State area preventing any storms from developing. The storm
activity so far has been confined to the CO/KS border where
isentropic lift has been developing storms, and over the southern
part of the area along the frontal boundary. Anticipate the storm
activity along the KS/CO border to shift east with the isentropic
lift and weaken as the lift weakens. The storms to the south will
gradually shift to the east with the short wave trough rotating
around the base of the closed low. Am anticipating the storm
activity in this part of the Tri-State area to remain along the
frontal boundary, which will straddle the southeast border of the
area this evening.

Over the northeast quadrant of the Tri-State area, some scattered
storm coverage is expected to develop during the evening as
isentropic lift shifts eastward. However, as mentioned previously,
the lift will diminish as it moves eastward causing storm coverage
to dwindle. Storms should be east of the area around 7 AM CDT.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 149 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

Upper low will continue it`s slow trek eastward through the
afternoon and into Saturday with PoPs remaining elevated through the
afternoon. There will be enough instability to spark off
thunderstorms through the afternoon. Severe storms across much of
the CWA will be limited for the most part to hail and wind. The
exception will be the far eastern portions of the CWA where a Theta-
E boundary is draped from north to south just east of the upper low.
In this area we could see stronger forcing which could lead to large
hail, damaging winds, and possibly an isolated tornado. Thunderstorm
activity will slowly move to the east overnight with very weak
shortwave high pressure building in briefly on Saturday. Drier air
will encompass the region on Saturday with PoPs increasing once more
as we head into the overnight hours into Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 148 AM MDT Sat May 28 2016

For the long term period the models are showing that Tuesday through
Wednesday at 00z are the only times where precipitation is possible.
There is a trough sitting over the north central CONUS which is
going to impact the CWA in the beginning of the extended period. An
upper level low that is sitting over Arizona and New Mexico will be
absorbed into the main flow at the beginning of the period; that in
addition to 700 mb shortwaves will help with storm development.
Surface CAPE looks fairly good with up to 1500 J/kg Tuesday night
over the eastern portions of the CWA. Bulk shear does not look
impressive though. Due to the instability factors mentioned storm
development is possible.

The remainder of the period looks dry. The models show a ridge
building over the western CONUS Tuesday and progresses east through
the period which eventually reaches the area Wednesday night. This
ridge will bring warmer temperatures to the region, with
temperatures reaching the upper 70s Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Light west to northwest
winds will continue through the TAF. Clouds will clear from west
to east through the TAF period as well.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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