Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 220915

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
315 AM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Today-tonight...morning low clouds/possible fog expected to steadily
dissipate through mid to late morning leaving a sunny to mostly
sunny sky in the afternoon. Little if any moisture in the 850-500mb
column leading to a dry forecast under perhaps a small increase in
high clouds through the night. High temperatures in the upper 70s to
low 80s. Low temperatures coolest across the east where winds
lightest with readings in the low 50s. Further west should see mid
to upper 50s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...may see a thunderstorms reach the
extreme western portion of Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties of
Colorado during the mid to late afternoon hours otherwise a sunny to
mostly sunny sky expected. Breezy southerly winds possible in the
mid morning through afternoon with afternoon temperatures in the low
to upper 80s. Precipitation chances slowly move east across most of
the area (except in the Norton and Hill City areas) during the night
as westerly flow aloft carries minor disturbance and some moisture
across the area. Low temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Thursday-Thursday night...may see a few morning showers/possible
thunderstorms east of the CO/KS border in the morning otherwise will
have to wait for approaching upper disturbance to move in from the
west during the afternoon to get our next chance for thunderstorms.
This system moves into the area during the night bringing a much
better chance of showers/thunderstorms compared to the past several
days. With precipitable water values as high as 1.8 inches after
midnight locally heavy rainfall possible. Should see high
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the mid 50s to
mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Friday-Saturday: Surface troughing and a north-south oriented
stationary boundary situated just west of the KS/CO border will be
the main surface features for the period. Aloft, zonal flow becomes
more northwest with a series of shortwaves moving through the area
helping to produce showers and storms. Latest GFS model soundings
show sufficient MUCAPE and 0-6km shear to support strong to severe
thunderstorms both afternoon and evenings with hail and damaging
winds being the greatest threats. Best chance of seeing showers and
storms will be in the eastern half of the CWA. Best coverage/chance
of precip looks to be Saturday evening. Temperatures should remain
near normal.

Sunday-Monday: Stationary front washes out across the region. Upper
level flow turns out of the north. GFS is advertising a weak
shortwave to traverse the area, so have slight and chance PoPs in
the forecast for Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, remainder of the
period should remain dry. Temperatures remain near normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Mon Aug 21 2017

For KGLD...VFR conditions thru the forecast period. Winds...NNE
around 10kts thru 16z...then ENE around 10kts. By 01z
Wednesday...ESE around 10kts. LLWS 06z-13z 020@45kts.

For KMCK...Mainly VFR conditions thru the forecast period. From
08z-11z MVFR conditions possible as low cloud could drop ceilings
down to BKN020. Winds...N around 10kts thru 14z. Gusts to 20kts
06z-08z. From 14z ENE around 10kts...then ESE 5-10kts from 01z
Wednesday onward. LLWS 06z-14z 010@40kts.




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