Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 281936
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
136 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THE WIND SPEEDS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 06-12Z OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

AS A RESULT OF THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
THAT WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FORM MID DAY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DURING THAT TIME
OF SUNDAY. BURNING OUTDOORS IS DISCOURAGED AND COULD QUICKLY
BECOME OUT OF CONTROL DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER RIDGING ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DETERMINE HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT RIGHT NOW BLEND MAKES WEDNESDAY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY THOUGH SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A PROGRESSIVE
ZONAL FLOW...EACH BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN SPEED AFTER 08Z AS THE
SURFACE THROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER AND THEN
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT BETWEEN
06-12Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AFTER
12Z

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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