Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 171730
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1030 AM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 403 AM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

Forecast issues will be chance of precipitation tonight, winds
tonight and Saturday, and temperature rollercoaster through the
period. Satellite showing an amplified flow over the Pacific which
transitions to a less amplified more progressive flow over the
country. Warm temperatures at low levels in advance of a strong cold
front approaching from the northwest.

At jet level...The Nam, Canadian and Ecmwf were doing the best on
the near 150 knot jet that was over the western portion of the
country. At mid levels...analysis showed no serious problems. Rap
looked like it was catching the surface wind and pressure field the
best at this time. Models started out fine on the low level thermal
with the Gfs doing slightly better.

Today/tonight...A complicated high temperature forecast. Area is
getting good warm air advection and downslope winds in advance of
the incoming cold front. This has caused current temperatures to
warm, mainly in the western half, since last evening which has
made temperatures warmer than most guidance. There is some
discrepancy in frontal timing with the Nam faster and cooler with
other guidance slower.

To add one more random element into this forecast is the expected
variable cirrus. Currently have dense cirrus on top of us due to
strong westerly/cross mountain flow at mid levels. Models indicate
that this morning cirrus will thin/move off to the east with a
little break in the middle of the day. If had no cirrus would feel
more confident about raising high temperatures. As a result of so
many variable factors, raised temperatures the most south of the
interstate.

Same slight difference in the jet position later today. Area remains
in right front quadrant of the upper jet until later in the
afternoon early in the evening when a left front quadrant starts
affecting the northwest portion. By late in the evening that left
front quadrant has moved rapidly to the south of the area.

Models vary on how much stability the air mass has along with how
deep to saturate the air mass. Considering the westerly component am
thinking the Nam is saturating this air mass too deeply. It also
looks like the air mass has more stable theta-e lapse rates the
models produce the precipitation. However, the one good thing for
precipitation the strong mid and upper forcing that moves across.
That forcing however moves through rather quickly and mostly during
the evening. All in all it looks like everything lines up for the
best chance of precipitation over the northern third of the area.
Precipitation looks like it ends by late in the night. At this
time it looks like mostly rain with a little snow mix in it. No
accumulation is expected.

Very tight pressure gradient and 3 hour pressure rises of near 12 mb
behind the front will make for windy to very windy conditions.
Depending on how deep we mix, the area has the potential to have a
few gusts to around 55 mph. Will have the day shift take another
close look at this.

Saturday/Saturday night...Lingering gradient, pressure rises, and
mixing will keep winds breezy to windy through most of the day.
Guidance is consistent in cooling off temperatures 25 to 30 degrees,
depending on what they reach today. High temperatures look to reach
the 45 to 50 degree range. Lighter winds and much colder
temperatures during the night.

Sunday/Sunday night...Some downslope winds during the day,
especially in the west. Again models look reasonable in the warmup
and did not change them from what the blend gave me. Warm air
advection and downslope winds increase during the night will make
for warmer low temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 224 AM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

Dry conditions are expected during the extended period. An upper
level ridge will build sharply northward over the full extent of the
Rockies during the week. A series of weak shortwave troughs will
move over the top of this ridge and come down and pass over the High
Plains, each accompanied by a weak cold fronts that will slightly
cool down the region. Moisture will be sparse and little to no
precipitation is expected with these weak systems.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1030 AM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the afternoon. A weak
front is progressing through the area and is already past KMCK
with light northerly winds. The front will move through KGLD in
the mid to late afternoon with gust westerly winds shifting to the
north and diminishing behind the front. Tonight, second, and
stronger, front will move through and increase the winds once
again during the mid to late evening hours. Those gusty northwest
winds will continue through the overnight and into Saturday
morning. Scattered light rain and snow showers will also develop
behind the front, with a brief period of IFR or MVFR ceilings
possible with the precipitation, ending by 12z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...024


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