Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 022030
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND THE GREATER CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA TONIGHT WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
COLORADO BORDER. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT TO REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL.

THE BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WITH
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE
PANHANDLE REGION WITH INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
LOW THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STRONG SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY LOCATED SQUARELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
AMPLIFIES AS A LOW DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE
SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH
PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW ALONG
WITH A DRYLINE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS STILL SHOW A WET
PATTERN AS THEY HAVE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ALL THE MODELS I
LOOKED AT ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT AND SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL CANADA. BY SUNDAY
THE RIDGE LOOKS TO FLATTEN AND THE UPPER LOW WILL START TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY.

THIS PATTERN STILL IS PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION... WHICH FAVORS SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA... WHILE THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE
TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION.
THIS PATTERN MAY BECOME EVEN WETTER AS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MOISTURE... FROM THE PACIFIC... MAY START ADVECTING THROUGH THE SW
FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

IN GENERAL... THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TIME FRAME FOR THE TRI STATE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS
NEAR 12KTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 22Z BEFORE GUSTS
INCREASE TOWARD 20KTS FROM 23Z-01Z. HI RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGESTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL IN THE 23Z-01Z TIMEFRAME PRODUCING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL/BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. AFTER 02Z WINDS
RETURN TO SOUTH/SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 12KTS BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE AROUND 11Z AS SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. DURING
THE MID MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASE NEAR 12KTS AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 10Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING 25KTS OR SO EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 02Z BEFORE
FALLING BELOW 12KTS FROM 03Z-10Z. HI RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGESTING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL IN THE
01Z-03Z TIMEFRAME PRODUCING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND POSSIBLY
LARGE HAIL/BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. AFTER 11Z-16Z A MORE EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL ALLOW INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TO MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL PRODUCING MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH
VFR RETURNING BY 17Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...99


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