Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 270830

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
230 AM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 1230 AM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016 of 590 upper high slowly moves east into west
Texas during the day remaining nearly stationary tonight as upper
trough approaches the west coast. Any cloudiness would be limited to
cirrus level. Will have to monitor areas east of a line from around
Norton to Gove after midnight as boundary layer moisture increases
from the east possibly creating some low clouds and fog. Afternoon
temperatures warm into the low to mid 80s per 850mb temperatures.
Low temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s. A few record highs
possible...see climate section below.

Friday-Friday night...upper high centered over much of Texas and low
pressure off the northwest coast keeps the forecast area under
southwest flow aloft. Storm track keeps the better moisture north
and west of the area leaving us dry. High temperatures continue to
warm a few more degrees in mid 80s for most of the area. Low
temperatures remain mild for this time of year with mid 40s to low
50s. Several record high temperatures possible...see climate
section below.

Saturday-Saturday night...a cold front is expected to move across
the area during the day with breezy north winds. No precipitation is
expected. Afternoon temperatures drop back into the low to upper 70s
(north to south across the area) which is still 10+ degrees above
normal. Low temperatures look to fall into the upper 30s to low 40s
which is also at least 5+ degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 201 PM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Warm and dry weather is expected during the long term, with an upper
ridge dominating and a couple shortwaves passing off to the north
of the region. Temperatures remain above normal throughout the

Thursday night through Saturday night: Warmer air pushes into the
area Thursday night and Friday as the ridge continues to progress
east towards the Plains. Late Friday, a weak shortwave makes it to
the Rockies from the west coast and flattens the ridge. This
shortwave is expected to continue on to the northern Plains on
Saturday, sending a cold front south through the High Plains. A dry
frontal passage is still anticipated with moisture lacking in the
area. The ridge starts to redevelop Saturday night behind the

Sunday through Wednesday: Dry weather prevails on Sunday as the
ridge shifts east and another disturbance makes its way onto the
west coast. This system heads north of the area on Monday and the
area of high pressure slides to the southeastern CONUS. Another cold
front is sent south by late Monday, bringing cooler air to the
region in time for Tuesday as a new upper system forms on the west
coast. Southwesterly flow develops ahead of this shortwave trough,
which may bring some precipitation chances to the region midweek.

Temperatures: Highs fluctuate during the long term, but stay above
normal throughout the period. Temperatures will be the warmest on
Friday, in the low to mid 80s, nearing record highs in some
locations. Cooler air filters in by Saturday, bringing 70s back for
the weekend. Temperatures try to climb ahead of Monday`s cold front,
which brings the mid 60s to low 70s to the forecast for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Low temperatures oscillate as well, ranging from the mid
30s to mid 50s across the region during this timeframe.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 100 AM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.
South-southwest winds slowly increase through the day with gusts
in the 25-30 mph expected. For tonight winds start from the south
around 8-13 mph then slowly veer to the southwest toward sunrise.


Issued at 230 AM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

For today October 27th record high temperatures are possible at:

McCook     - 84 degrees in 1929
Tribune    - 85 degrees in 1990
Yuma       - 84 degrees in 1983

For Friday October 28th record high temperatures are possible at:

Goodland   - 86 degrees in 1943
McCook     - 86 degrees in 1983
Burlington - 84 degrees in 1943
Tribune    - 85 degrees in 1943
Yuma       - 83 degrees in 1983




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