000
FXUS63 KGLD 122047
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
247 PM MDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAY 12 2013

TONIGHT...CUMULUS FIELD EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN AN AREA
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER ENOUGH DRY AIR AND CINH HAS KEPT
THESE CUMULUS FROM DEVELOPING ANY VERTICAL EXTENT. LITTLE IN THE WAY
IN LIFT ALOFT IS NOT ALLOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.
CUMULUS SHOULD CLEAR AWAY QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. WIND
FIELD WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH THE WINDS
STAYING LIGHTEST THE LONGEST IN THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH
RETURN FLOW STARTING IN THE WEST BEFORE 06Z. WITH WARMER MAXES THE
MINS WILL BE WARMER WITH A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT.

MONDAY...AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM. MID/UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA. THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER. WIND
FIELD LOOKS TO STAY DOWNSLOPE UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING VARIABLE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE TO EACH OTHER WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE NWP/2 METER. SO
BLENDED THE VALUES AND CAME UP SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES. RANGE WILL BE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE MIDDLE 90S IN THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS. REFER TO
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAY 12 2013

UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL LOOK MORE LIKE
AUGUST THAN MAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE AREA.  HOWEVER THE DRY ENVIRONMENT WILL PROHIBIT STORMS
FROM DEVELOPING DESPITE THE LIFT.

TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS
DURING THE AFTERNOON A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF AREA.  DEEP LIFT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SHOW A
DEEP DRY LAYER TO OVERCOME.  IN ADDITION DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT
THE LCL WILL BE AROUND 5C OR MORE WHICH MAY ALSO INHIBIT STORM
DEVELOPMENT.  DUE TO THE WELL MIXED DRY LAYER THERE WILL BE ALMOST
NOT CINH.  SO DESPITE THE DRY ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD NEED TO BE
OVERCOME THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOP ALONG THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DUE TO THE DEEP LIFT PRESENT.

HIGHS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MORE LIKE JULY AND AUGUST THAN
MAY DUE TO THE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN.  HIGHS MAY REACH 100
DEGREES OVER THE FAR EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THE LIMITING
FACTORS WILL BE HOW FAR EAST THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE AND HOW MUCH OF
AN AFFECT CLOUDS WILL BE SHOULD THEY DEVELOP THAT FAR EAST.  SEE
CLIMATE SECTION FOR RECORDS.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

TUESDAY EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.  THE BETTER
MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT...SO HAVE
HIGHER CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING.  AS THE FRONT
MOVES IN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BACKS NORTH TOWARD IT.  WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DUE TO
THE DEEP LIFT PRESENT.  AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT ELEVATED CAPE AND MOISTURE DECLINE...CAUSING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP. TO DECLINE AS WELL.  ANY STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LIFT WITH THE FRONT
COMES TO AN END.  WOULD HAVE PREFERRED TO GO HIGHER WITH THE PRECIP.
CHANCES DURING THE EVENING...BUT WITH THE DEEP DRY LAYER AND MINIMAL
ELEVATED CAPE THOUGHT PRECIP. CHANCES IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY
WOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH.



WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE TRI-STATE
AREA UNDER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SMALLER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE A DRY LINE
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA...WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING TO THE EAST.
STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRY LINE AND MOVE
EAST.  STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 40KTS.  SOUNDINGS DO RAISE
SOME CONCERN FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BASED ON EITHER
A CAP DEVELOPING EAST OF THE DRY LINE OR THE ENVIRONMENT DRYING
OUT.  WITH THIS BEING SIX TO SEVEN DAYS OUT WILL NOT DROP PRECIP.
CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK YET.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
FOR SUNDAY WHEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SUN MAY 12 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
HIGHLY VARIABLE AND SHIFTING THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAY 12 2013

WESTERN LOCATIONS HAD THE DEW POINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP TO
NEAR CRITICAL VALUES. HOWEVER WAS NOT WIDESPREAD SCENARIO WITH
MAJORITY OF THE AREA STAYING BELOW CRITERIA ON BOTH GUSTS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. DO NOT UNDERSTAND WHY DID NOT HAVE A MORE
WIDESPREAD MIXING OF AIR MASS. CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE
WITHIN COUNTY...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND KGLD.

REASON I GO INTO THIS IS ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW IF GET DEEP MIXING WE
COULD REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES MUCH LOWER OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. VERY UNSURE HOW
MUCH MIXING IS GOING OCCUR AND COULD BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AGAIN. IT
DOES LOOK LESS. SO DO PLAN ON ISSUING ANY FIRE HIGHLIGHTS AND
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH EAST OF
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WHILE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT.  CONSIDERED
ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE AREAS OF CONCERN...BUT WOULD
LIKE WAIT TO SEE HOW MODELS HANDLE THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE ISSUING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT SUN MAY 12 2013

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN MONDAY:

HILL CITY....96 (1915)
MCCOOK.......95 (1962)

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN TUESDAY:

GOODLAND.....95 (1915)
HILL CITY....96 (1948)
MCCOOK.......98 (1929)
BURLINGTON...91 (1944)
TRIBUNE......94

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER/JTL
CLIMATE...99