Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 080515

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1015 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

Issued at 648 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

Temperatures ahead of incoming cloud cover have fallen into the
teens over the east half of the forecast area, east of the
flurries and clouds. Warm air advection later this evening will
cause temperatures to warm through the rest of the night.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

Main issues will be high winds and fire weather conditions for
Friday. For tonight...Left front quadrant will be affecting the
northwest portion of the area at the beginning of the period and
will be just east of the area by the end of the night. Mid level
lift is not as strong with not the best theta-e lapse rates. This
has been what the model output has been showing the last few days.
Model output has pulled back on the measurable precipitation. As
a result have pulled all measurable mention of precipitation and
inserted scattered flurries for the night.

For Friday...For discussion on fire weather, refer to that section
below. By later in the morning/early in the afternoon, the area
is in the right front quadrant of the above mentioned jet.
Shortwave will have moved through by late in the morning with
subsidence and clearing kicking in by mid to late morning with the
strongest downward motion over eastern Colorado. Also 700 mb
winds increase into the 45 to 55 knot range with the strongest
winds in eastern Colorado and a little further east into extreme
southwest Nebraska and far northwest Kansas. The best low level
lapse rates reside along and especially west of the Colorado

Best parameters to mix down 60 mph plus winds reside over eastern
Colorado with the Bufkit soundings for the Nam and Gfs mixing
down these winds for the last two days. So confidence was high
enough to hoist a high wind warning for eastern Colorado. However,
there is some uncertainty as to how far these parameters will
move east of the Colorado border. The certainty was not there is
issue a warning but felt good enough about issuing a watch for the
next row of counties to the east of the Colorado border.

Area continues to see experience dry conditions. With the winds that
occurred on Monday, those areas that had the strongest winds did
experience some minor reductions in visibility from blowing dust.
So for the high wind warning and watch area, I inserted patchy
blowing dust from late in the morning through the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

A highly amplified pattern will remain in place through the middle
of next week, and possibly through the end of next week. North to
northwest flow aloft persists over the Central High Plains in this
pattern, and this opens the possibility for shortwave
troughs/clippers moving across the Northern Plains.

Heights will be rising as ridge shifts eastward just enough, and
downslope off the Cheyenne ridge in NW flow will support lee
troughing over our CWA and WAA this weekend. Dry conditions will
persist with main storm track well northeast of the region. Above
normal temperatures are expected through at least mid week.
Depending on mixing each day we may be breezy to windy each
afternoon in this pattern with unidirectional height gradient.
Strongest mid to upper level jet is monday as a stronger trough
rotates out of the Northern Plains and into the Central High Plains.
It appears we may have a repeat of the strong winds forecast this
Friday as strong pressure rises and favorable mixing allows for
stronger winds aloft to reach the surface. I can`t rule out gusts to
60 mph that day (particularly if we mix to 800mb or higher).

Another series of trough passing out of the northern Plains will
slowly erode the western US ridge, and falling heights by late next
week should support temperatures trending back towards seasonal
normals (40s for highs/teens for lows). This change in pattern
towards Thursday may also support increasing chances for PoPs, but
at this range it is hard to have a lot of confidence.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1014 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Winds are expected to
quickly increase around 15z, reaching a peak around 19z, then
quickly declining around 23z. Confidence is beginning to wane
regarding wind gusts reaching 50 kts for KGLD. The stronger winds
will be west of KGLD.


KS...Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ Friday through
     Friday afternoon for KSZ001-013-027-041.

     High Wind Watch from 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ Friday through Friday
     afternoon for KSZ001-013-027-041.

CO...High Wind Warning from 10 AM to 5 PM MST Friday for COZ090>092.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 5 PM MST Friday for COZ252>254.

NE...Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM MST Friday through Friday
     afternoon for NEZ079.

     High Wind Watch from 10 AM MST Friday through Friday afternoon
     for NEZ079.



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