Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 171751

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1051 AM MST Fri Feb 17 2017

Issued at 1049 AM MST Fri Feb 17 2017

Temperatures are currently getting close to the forecast maxes.
Despite the north winds/cold air advection temperatures should be
able to raise more. So raised the maxes a little. Also increased
winds a little per observations/VWP and a little better mixing.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 243 AM MST Fri Feb 17 2017

Cold front associated with a shortwave trough moving through the
northern plains will works its way through the forecast area
today. Winds will shift to the north and become gusty by early
afternoon. Slightly higher dew points behind the front will
prevent red flag criteria from being reached, but with the gusty
winds and RH dropping to around 20 percent will continue to
mention an elevated risk in HWO. Temperatures will not be impacted
much by the front, still reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Upper ridge will rebuild for Saturday with continued dry and mild
conditions for mid February. Next chance for precipitation will
arrive on Sunday as the southwestern system ejects northeast into
the plains. Weak to moderate instability is forecast by the models
by Sunday afternoon, with very good deep layer shear at around
50kts and no CIN. Low level moisture return will bring in surface
dew points in the upper 40s to lower 50s. As a result, cannot
totally rule out a marginally severe storm or two Sunday
afternoon and evening, with hail probably being the main threat.
Temperatures will continue to be much above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1240 AM MST Fri Feb 17 2017

Monday...winds shift to the northwest during the day and could be
breezy along the CO/KS border behind Sunday nights departing storm
system. Otherwise lots of sunshine with highs in the low to upper
60s. Low temperatures continue mild around to the mid 30s.

Tuesday...another sunny/mostly sunny day with afternoon temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s and lows in the low to mid 30s.
Record/near record high temperatures are possible. At this time most
likely locations for records would be Goodland (73 in 1995 and
previous years), McCook (76 in 1933), Burlington (72 in 2000), Colby
(74 in 1972 and previous years), and Yuma (72 in 1982).

Wednesday...a large upper trough is forecast to move onshore across
the western United States early in the period reaching the
intermountain west by Thursday morning. No impact on our weather
other than a bit of an increase in clouds during the night.
Temperatures remain above normal with highs in the mid to upper 60s
and lows in the low to upper 30s.

Thursday...00z GFS/ECMWF suggest a large dry slot covers the
forecast area during the morning with possibly some breezy south to
southwest winds for parts of the area. For the afternoon hours the
center of the 500mb low is forecast to be in the Yuma or Dundy
county areas with the sfc low over the Gove county area. Winds will
shift to the north and northwest and increase into the breezy
category along and west of the CO/KS border while further east
remain out of the south/southwest. Clouds increase on the backside
of the sfc low and with a little instability generate some showers
and possible thunderstorms. High temperatures generally in the mid
50s to low 60s. For the overnight hours the storm system is expected
to slowly move east through central Kansas. Wraparound precipitation
is possible generally east of the CO/KS border. With northwest winds
around 20 mph with higher gusts bringing colder air into the area a
changeover to snow is expected from west to east starting in the
evening. Right now an inch or two is possible. Low temperatures are
expected to drop into the low 20s to near 30.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1029 AM MST Fri Feb 17 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. North winds near
20 knots with gusts near 27 knots are expected at both sites
through the afternoon before decreasing near sunset. After that
the winds will become light and variable through tomorrow with a
shift toward southeast during the mid morning hours on Saturday.




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