Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 190821

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
221 AM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 221 AM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Early morning WV imagery and RAP upper level analysis shows a
shortwave trough over Wyoming and Colorado, with a region of
subsidence/dry air moving northeast out of south central Colorado.
At the surface Lo pressure is in place with a surface trough axis
extending north across eastern Colorado. A cold front is over then
Northern plains, moving into northeast Wyoming and approaching
southern South Dakota.

The shortwave trough will move east and pass over our CWA today and
tonight. Region of subsidence may remain in place over our southern
CWA limiting chances there. Moisture profiles will be slow to
saturate, and dry lower levels may limit potential for precip to
reach the surface. Limited instability and a slow increase in
moisture depth/moisture profiles could eventually allow light
showers to develop. Guidance is still showing an overlapping
weak precip signal in our north and northeast today and tonight,
with dry conditions elsewhere. By Thursday the trough will be
east, and subsidence ahead of building ridge in the west will
overspread our CWA. Very dry/stable air will then remain in place
through the rest of the week.

Regarding temperatures: The cold front in the northern plains
should pass over our CWA this morning and Canadian high pressure
will slide out of the Rockies towards the Central High Plains
tonight, then eastward through Thursday night. The air mass change
will support cooler temperatures Today and Thursday (upper
50s/lower 60s), before the flow aloft shifts and WAA brings above
normal temps back to the region Friday (mid 70s).

A frost (or freeze) is possible Thursday and Friday
mornings. As surface high pressure remains just west, we may see
enough of a gradient that winds around 10 kt could limit peak
radiational conditions to all but the far west tonight. There is
also a small chance that stratus develops along forward edge of
ridge ahead of low BL Tds, and this could hold overnight lows up.
On Thursday night/Friday morning radiational conditions may
better better, but the air mass will also begin to moderate
lowering confidence in lows. Ultimately a frost advisory may be
needed (06- 15Z) tonight/Thursday morning and Thursday
night/Friday morning for our west. There is enough uncertainty
that after coordination, the decision was made to hold off for

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 AM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016

An upper ridge looks to be the dominating feature this weekend into
early next week. This leads to dry weather persisting for the large
majority of the extended period.

The ridge progresses onto the Plains over the weekend, with its axis
moving east of the region on Monday. Southwesterly flow then
develops aloft as a trough advances onto the Pacific coast on
Tuesday, bringing some moisture towards the High Plains. Will
continue to monitor how models resolve discrepancies with the trough
as next week draws near, but this appears to be our next shot at

Temperatures generally follow a slight cooling trend during this
time frame. Highs start out in the upper 70s to low 80s on
Saturday and end mainly in the low to mid 70s Tuesday. Lows stay
in the upper 30s to 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1000 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.

For KGLD winds begin the period from the southeast near 10kts
becoming variable around 5kts by 11z as a front begins to
approach the terminal. By 13z winds expected from the northwest in
the 5-10kt range. Winds increase with gusts of 20 to 30 mph from
the north in the 18z-22z timeframe. After 23z winds remain from
the north near 11kts. No precipitation expected. There is the
possibility of mvfr cigs in the 15z-19z timeframe. Right now
confidence too low to mention the threat.

For KMCK winds remain light for the entire period. Should see
winds from the east near 5kts gradually backing to the northeast
by 11z then north after 16z. No precipitation expected.




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