000
FXUS63 KGLD 160844
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
244 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
PLAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES
SATURDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE LIFT ACROSS THE FA THIS EVENING.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIGHT SO PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE SHORTWAVE
EXITS AROUND 06Z FRIDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE FA.
SUBSIDENCE AND NIL POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FA UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IMPACTS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
CORNER. DYNAMICS JUST CLIP THAT AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. BY SATURDAY THE TROUGH STARTS SHIFTING EAST OF THE
ROCKIES WITH DYNAMICS IMPACTING THE FA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING SATURDAY NIGHT. PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES THIS MORNING OVER A PORTION OF THE
EASTERN FA. SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME STRATUS IN THAT AREA. THE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT HLC IS 4 SO WITH GO WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE
EAST.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY IN
RESPONSE TO 850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 28. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS...PLACING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER
PLAINS AREA.  THE 500 MB LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING POSITIVE VORTICITY VALUES AND JET MAXES OF
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS. STRONGER MID AND LOWER LEVEL JET WILL STAY
TOWARD THE CENTER AND EASTERN PORTION OF KANSAS. THETA E VALUES AT
850 MB WILL DROP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MEAGER CAPE VALUES AND K INDEX VALUES...WHICH
PROVIDES ONLY A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY FORECAST...WITH ECMWF
HAVING ZONAL FLOW OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH TROUGH PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD
AGAIN MONDAY WHILE GFS HAS TROUGH BASE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY AND
RETURNING TO ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FOR TUESDAY MORNING. THE TWO LONG
RANGE MODELS AGREE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHERE A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST OF KANSAS.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOMETIME SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL RETURN
TO AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.  TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM TO THE WEST AND PROGRESS
EASTWARD THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DIMINISHES. DEW POINTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND
DROPPING INTO THE 30S TUESDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 40S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CAPE VALUES OF BETWEEN 300 AND
1000 J/KG WILL BE PRESENT WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -2 FOR THE
REGION...WHICH COULD PROVIDE MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION TO
OCCUR...CHANCES MAINLY BEING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
STRENGTHENING OF SURFACE HEATING.

THE GREATEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE SUNDAY WITH
THE REMAINING INSTABILITY FROM THE STORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY.  A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS AND TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST MONDAY AS WELL...AND FAIR
WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM.  TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS LATER NEXT WEEK...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

INTERESTING AND COMPLICATED SET OF TAFS. SPOTTY THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE LOOKS TO STAY NORTH AND WEST OF BOTH TAF SITES. WINDS AT
KGLD WILL BE GUSTY AND VARIABLE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS DUE TO A
GUST FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST. AT KMCK
CONTINUE TO PUT A MINIMAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTION WITH FOG BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS EARLIER.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY UNTIL LATER
THIS MORNING WHEN THEY WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND BECOME
GUSTY. TIMING A LITTLE CLEARER ON THUNDERSTORM ONSET AND LOCATION
BUT STILL MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN NOT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A LATTER
ARRIVAL TIME AND SINCE IT IS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD HAVE
CHOSEN TO HANDLE THIS WITH VCTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER