Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 121744

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1044 AM MST Thu Jan 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 314 AM MST Thu Jan 12 2017

Main focus continues to be on possible high impact winter storm
this weekend. Early impacts could occur in the later part of short
range period with other impacts/pattern covered in the long range

Today-Friday: cold front is already through our region and there
should be reprieve with generally stable and dry air mass in place.
Expect seasonably cool temperatures and dry conditions. Depending
on cloud cover models may be optimistic on highs today and they
were trended down from previous forecast.

Saturday-Saturday night: An upper level trough will begin to deepen
over the SW US and deep SW flow develops into the plains Saturday.
This results in anomalously deep moisture advecting into the
Central High Plains and several waves of forcing overrunning an
elevated frontal zone.

Initially quasi-stationary front may try to lift north over our CWA
Saturday and model soundings are showing possibility of
drizzle/light rain developing during the day Saturday. Evaporative
cooling complicates this pattern, and better precip coverage would
likely shift surface pattern. A lack of consensus on surface
pattern reflects this dynamic uncertainty. Depending on the
position of this front and axis of WAA we may see enough surface
warming for non freezing precip, however based on wet bulb temp
profiles and current saturated layer within GFS/NAM soundings
liquid frozen type precip would be favored. Early on measurable
coverage is uncertain and slight chance/chance pops were still
favored. Possible impacts through the Saturday through early
Saturday evening would mainly be tied to a light glaze on
elevated surfaces.

By Saturday evening forcing and moisture increase and by late
Saturday night measurable precipitation becomes likely. Warm nose
in the 1.5-3.5C range (north to southeast) overspreads our CWA as
surface wet bulb temps drop below freezing. Depending on depth of
near surface sub freezing layer we could see moderate accumulating
freezing rain or sleet by late evening (more likely after midnight
based on latest trends). It will be very close regarding
temperatures profiles and impacts would vary significantly
depending on in this falls mainly as sleet or freezing rain.

Certainly a mess and advertised ice accumulations across our
southeast are not something that occurs in our CWA often (last
event that was close was 2006). This event could go from "just"
significant in travel impacts (mainly sleet) to almost crippling
from a power outage/travel standpoint (mainly freezing rain). This
is all depending on predominant precip type and axis of moderate
precipitation. Confidence in these details was not high enough at
this range to issue a watch, but this will need to be monitored

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 218 AM MST Thu Jan 12 2017

Potential winter storm in the early part of the period will be the
main focus. Still expecting a wintry mix of precipitation to start
Sunday morning. Soundings show a fairly stout elevated warm layer
above a subfreezing surface layer. Precipitation type would be
either freezing rain or sleet in that scenario. There is some
potential for significant icing, particularly south of Interstate
70. The main upper low will kick out of the southern plains and
across western Kansas Sunday night. Precipitation will change over
to all snow except perhaps the far eastern areas which will be
close to the upper low track. The rest of the area will be near
the upper trowal feature with the potential for heavy snow.
Wraparound snow will continue into Monday before finally ending
Monday night. ECMWF and GFS are in surprisingly good agreement
with snow totals during this time, both indicating up to a foot
possible. Given the combination of ice and heavy snow, a
crippling winter storm appears to be possible for most of the
forecast area. The system is still several days out, however, and
even a small change in track or temperatures could impact ice and
snow totals.

The remainder of the long term period looks dry under northwest
flow. Temperatures will slowly warm back to near normal by the
middle of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1036 AM MST Thu Jan 12 2017

VFR conditions are expected over both KGLD and KMCK for the

Currently, winds are out of the northeast for both sites at less
than 10 kts. These winds will begin to turn to a more easterly
direction as the day and night progresses due to a cold front
moving through the region. KMCK is expected to stay below 10 kts,
with KGLD reaching around 12 kts for a few hours this afternoon.
High clouds are expected to remain over the region through the
period but VFR conditions will remain. There could be a brief
period Friday early to mid-morning that could see MVFR cigs over
both sites but decided to leave that out of the TAFs for now due
to the uncertainty.




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