Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 222342
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
442 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH OVERCAST SKIES
OBSERVED ACROSS THE PLAINS EXCEPT FOR UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE AREA OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.  AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE STEADILY
INCREASED THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLACKEN SOME IN THE EVENING THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALLOWS A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER TO DEVELOP AND MIX THE LOW
LEVEL JET DOWNWARD.  MEANWHILE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SNOWFALL WITH IT.

TUESDAY ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA...REACHING A PEAK BY MID MORNING.  THOUGHT ABOUT GOING
100 PERCENT FOR SNOWFALL CHANCES BUT THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE STILL
WELL ABOVE ZERO DESPITE THE GOOD LIFT...SO DECIDED TO CAP SNOWFALL
CHANCES AT 80. AM CURRENTLY ONLY ANTICIPATING LESS THAN 3 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL BY THE END OF THE DAY. MODELS HAVE A BAND OF UP TO 3
INCHES 20-30 MILES SOUTH OF WHAT IS FORECAST. NOT COMPLETELY SURE
WHY MODELS HAVE HIGHER SNOWFALL SOUTH OF THE BEST LIFT BUT DID
TREND THE SNOWFALL THAT DIRECTION SINCE ALMOST ALL DATA IS
TRENDING SLIGHTLY SOUTH.

PERHAPS THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE THE HIGH WINDS EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY AS THE MIXED LAYER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE CONTINUE TO INCREASE.  MODELS INDICATE THE MIXED LAYER WILL
EXTEND TO AROUND 800MB OR SO ALONG/WEST OF A LEOTI TO GOODLAND AND
YUMA LINE.  THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE OVER THE WEST HALF OF KIT
CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES REACHING SPEEDS OF 65 MPH BY NOON.
HAVE THE MOST CONFIDENCE FOR THESE LOCATIONS MEETING WARNING
CRITERIA SO HAVE ISSUED A WARNING ACCORDINGLY.  EAST OF THIS LINE A
STRONG GRADIENT EXISTS WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT MIX UP AS
HIGH...HOWEVER THE WINDS SPEEDS INCREASE TO THE EAST AS WELL.
THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE WATCH GOING AND LET THE NEXT
SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TO SEE IF ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES NEED TO BE
ADDED TO THE WARNING.  DID CANCEL THE WATCH FOR DECATUR AND RED
WILLOW COUNTIES DUE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THE HIGH WINDS WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE GROUND.

A SECONDARY IMPACT FROM THE HIGH WINDS WILL BE THE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM THE BLOWING SNOW.  AM EXPECTING VISIBILITIES TO BE
UNDER A MILE DURING THE MORNING...POSSIBLY UNDER A QUARTER MILE FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 24 AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE THE SNOW IS MOST LIKELY. THOSE TRAVELING SHOULD
BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITIES IN THE BLOWING SNOW
DURING THE MORNING. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SNOWFALL ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A STRONG BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SHORT TERM RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH AND ULTIMATELY A SURFACE
LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND FINALLY NORTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY
NIGHT...PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THU NIGHT-FRI
MORNING. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET A LOT OF MOISTURE ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM FOR OUR
AREA...WITH BETTER MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE SYSTEM EAST OF US. SO
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SEASONALLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S WHILE ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL
HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EVEN SO...GUIDANCE
DOES NOT SUGGEST A MAJOR SNOW EVENT.

THE LONGER TERM FOR NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS COOL AS A CANADIAN SURFACE
HIGH DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS PREVAILS. THE
NEXT SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW.
AT THIS TIME ANYWAY...BOTH GFS AND THE EC LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR IN
TERMS OF THE UPPER PATTERN MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 442 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

CONTINUING TO MONITOR EVOLVING HIGH WIND AND SNOW/BLOWING SNOW
EVENING...EXPECTED TO IMPACT NW KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH ABOUT 08Z BEFORE CONDITIONS START TO
DETERIORATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONGER WINDS AT KGLD
(NEAR 50KT) ALONG WITH BEST CHANCE FOR LOWER VIS WITH BLOWING
SNOW AND SNOW. POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS IN
VIS AS LOW AS 1/4SM AT KGLD IN THE 12Z- 19Z TIMEFRAME...HOWEVER
ITS TOO EARLY FOR TEMPO GROUP AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PREVAIL
BASED ON TIMING/INTENSITY OF SNOW BAND. CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS BAD AT KMCK WHERE LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN THE IFR
RANGE. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF VISIBILITY SHOULD BE ON
AN UPWARD TREND IN THE 18-20Z TIME PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ001-002-014-015-028-029.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM
     CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ013-027-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...DR


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