Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 221153
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
553 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENT UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OFF THE WEST COAST.  EAST OF THE CLOSED LOW SMALLER SCALE SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS WERE MOVING EAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE
PLAINS.  THE STRONGER OF THESE TROUGHS WAS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA BEHIND AN EXPANDING PLUME OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT EAST OFF
THE CLOSED LOW AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND ONTO THE PLAINS.  WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TIED
TO EACH TROUGH PASSAGE. BEHIND THE TROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP WITH SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH IT WITH
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL CHANCES.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE AREA WILL BE AT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
OF NOT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHICH MAY LAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SATURDAY WHEN ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...EXCEPT FLASH FLOODING...WILL BE VERY LIKELY IF THE
STRATUS CLEARS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THIS MORNING THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EXITING THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.  BEHIND THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SOUNDINGS STILL HAVE A
SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE AND THERE WILL BE SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO OCCURRING IN THIS LAYER.  THEREFORE WILL
INTRODUCE DRIZZLE INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE REST OF THE DAY OVER
THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA.

DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON A DRY LINE WILL MOVE TO EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD.  EXPECT T-STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE DRY LINE WHERE THE
BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED.  WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50KTS...EXPECT SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE DRY LINE.  AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE DRY
LINE THEY WILL DECLINE IN INTENSITY.

THIS EVENING STORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA.  AM THINKING T-STORMS
WILL DECLINE DURING THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECLINES.  ELSEWHERE
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWEST 100MB OR SO SATURATING AND SOME ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPING WHICH WILL LEAD TO DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPMENT.

OVERNIGHT ELEVATED T-STORMS WILL BE LIKELY FOR AIR PARCELS BEING
LIFTED FROM 800-850MB...PRIMARILY EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.  HARD
TO BE MORE SPECIFIC WITH THE LOCATION AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RATHER
LARGE AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE.
IF ELEVATED STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY SHOULD BECOME SEVERE DUE TO
ELEVATED CAPES OF 1500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40KTS.  WILL NOT
PUT SEVERE WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF
STORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOPING. EXPECT DRIZZLE AND FOG TO CONTINUE FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA NOT UNDER THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHERE THE
DEEPER SATURATED LAYER WILL BE.  VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO A QUARTER
MILE OVERNIGHT IN THE FOG.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SATURDAY ELEVATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING.  DOES LOOK
LIKE THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WHERE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
TRACK.  THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
WARM.  EXPECT THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES TO LAST AN HOUR OR SO AFTER
SUNRISE BEFORE IMPROVING.

DURING THE AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH
SHOULD PUSH ALL THE LOW STRATUS OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOW THE
SURFACE TO WARM.  MEANWHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  BY THIS TIME THE CLOSED LOW THAT WAS OFF
THE WEST COAST WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHICH WILL HELP
ADD TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AT THE
SURFACE A DRY LINE WILL MOVE TO JUST WEST OF THE AREA.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD EXPECT T-STORMS TO DEVELOP...SPREADING
TO THE NORTHEAST.  DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL
INCREASE TO 1500J/KG OR SO AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE 50
KTS...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
VERY LIKELY EXCEPT FLASH FLOODING.

SATURDAY EVENING SEVERE WEATHER WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD.  BEHIND THIS TROUGH ANOTHER ONE
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA.  DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE SECOND TROUGH OF
THE NIGHT SINCE ALL THE INSTABILITY WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY THE DRY LINE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND STALL OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.  A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER IT
DURING THE AFTERNOON CAUSING STORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE DRY LINE.  MAY
SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS DUE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500 J/KG AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40KTS.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT THE TROUGH AXIS OF
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH FROM
WEST TO EAST.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON HOW THE PRIMARY ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL TRANSPIRE. THE GFS
SHOWS A STRONG CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES AT 00Z
TUESDAY...WHEREAS THE EUROPEAN HAS THAT SAME LOW...WHICH IS
WEAKER...MOVING OVER THE NW 12Z MONDAY. THE EUROPEAN SHOWS THAT NW LOW
PRESSURE GETTING ABSORBED IN THE GENERAL FLOW RIGHT AFTER IT DEVELOPS.
A STRONG RIDGE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALL NEXT WEEK IN THE
EUROPEAN AS WELL. THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE THAT SAME RIDGE OVER THE SE BUT
IT HAS A WEAKER RIDGE BUILDING OVER TEXAS AND UP INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AT 12Z. THIS HIGH PRESSURE LIKELY
BUILDS DUE TO THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NW THAT IS STAYING
STATIONARY ALL WEEK.

EVEN WITH THESE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WE STILL ANTICIPATE RAIN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK...WITH A SHORT
BREAK 12Z TO 00Z TUESDAY OVER THE MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. MAX TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK. BOTH MODELS SHOW MULTIPLE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL
FORCING IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE BUT SURFACE CAPE HAS SOME IMPRESSIVE
VALUES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 549 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TAFS. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL EXIT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME
DRIZZLE DURING THE DAY AT THE SITES...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT IMPACT
VISIBILITIES. HOWEVER ONCE CEILINGS FALL TO IFR THIS MORNING THEY
WILL INCREASE TO MVFR FOR KGLD ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS THEN FALL
BACK TO IFR. TONIGHT FOG WILL DEVELOP...WITH THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE OVER KMCK DURING THE
EVENING. OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE SITES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTL
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL/CLT
AVIATION...JTL


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