Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 112341
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
541 PM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECEDING THIS
SYSTEM...THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS IT CONSOLIDATES INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHWEST KANSAS/PANHANDLE AREA.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY. WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEAR THE
TROUGH AND SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES IN
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH...A
FEW OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF COLORADO MAY SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THESE WILL BRING
VARYING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH SOME LULLS IN THE ACTIVITY
FROM TIME TO TIME...RIGHT NOW TO EARLY TO PINPOINT THOSE DOWN TIMES.

NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED.

LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 IN EASTERN COLORADO
WITH UPPER 40S FAR EAST THROUGH SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY WONT WARM MUCH
FROM THE LOWS AND ARE LIKELY TO SLOWLY FALL DURING THE DAY.
CURRENTLY HAVE "HIGHS" IN THE LOW 40S WEST...AROUND 50 EAST AND
SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT PASSING OVER THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE EXITING THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER THE NOON HOUR. HAVE
INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN
SPEED MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S (COLDEST WEST) WITH HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WEST...AROUND 50 EAST. NAM IS THE
OUTLIER AND MUCH COLDER OF THE MODELS. IF ITS 2M HIGH TEMPERATURE OF
28 VERIFIES IT WOULD BE A RECORD LOW HIGH FOR THE DAY...SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW THE CURRENT RECORD OF 32 SET BACK IN 1945. IT SHOULD
ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST COULD BE IMPACTED
BY SNOWFALL FORECAST.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY AROUND
ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE FAR EAST TO 2-3 INCHES ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WITH AN INCH OR TWO IN BETWEEN. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE
ARE MANY DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS WITH REGARD TO QPF...TIMING OF
PRECIP...AMOUNT OF COLD AIR...ETC WHICH WILL GREATLY IMPACT CURRENT
SNOWFALL FORECAST. THESE VALUES WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY..FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN TUESDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST WITH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE AS WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS MOVES IN. LITTLE AGREEMENT AT
THE SFC AS GFS PUSHES A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WHILE ECMWF/HPC
GUIDANCE SHOW A TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURE FORECAST. LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 30 WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY A FEW 70S. MAY
HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

THURSDAY...ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA OR INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY THEN LEAVING THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LITTLE AGREEMENT ON SFC FEATURES...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES SO HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO EXTENDED
FORECAST PROCEDURE.

FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE A GENERAL WEST FLOW ALOFT BUT AGAIN SFC FEATURES
AND MEANINGFUL WEATHER HAVE LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONGST EXTENDED
MODELS. WILL HAVE TO JUST GO WITH EXTENDED PROCEDURE WITH LITTLE
MODIFICATION GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE IN POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY THIS EVENING DUE TO A STRONG LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING. WINDS
WILL BE SHIFTING THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A
COUPLE OF DIFFERENT SURFACE TROUGHS. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST NEAR THE END OF THIS PERIOD AND CHOSE TO LEAVE OUT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER






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