Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 191935
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
135 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 245 AM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Large scale mid-upper trough is in place over the Pacific
northwest, with southwest flow deepening into the Central High
Plains. A shortwave trough will swing around the large scale upper
low and send a cold front over our CWA by late tonight. A deep
dry air mass and large scale forcing well north of the region will
keep dry conditions in place.

Ahead of this trough southwest flow and increasing deep gradient
will support unseasonably hot afternoon temperatures and windy
conditions today. If prefrontal surface trough holds west we may see
higher temps that most 2m and statistical guidance indicate, and I
couldn`t rule out some locations near 100F. Ahead of this surface
trough early this morning we may see patchy stratus and fog, but
increasing BL winds have helped mix the low levels, so mention has
been left out.

Wednesday-Thursday: Deep dry air mass and unfavorable upper level
pattern will keep dry conditions in place during these periods.
After  near seasonal temperatures Wednesday, southwest flow
redevelops. Deepening lee trough will result in unseasonal highs
and breezy conditions once again Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Dry weather is anticipated to start off the long term period,
followed by wet conditions with a slow moving weather system Friday
through at least the weekend.

On Wednesday night, surface high pressure moves east of the area
turning winds southerly. The pressure gradient tightens on Thursday
ahead of a cold front and winds pick up as a lee trough develops
near the High Plains. The dry air mass in place combined with these
gusty winds suggest possible critical fire weather conditions
generally along and west of Highway 27. Meanwhile, an upper low
crosses south central Canada with a large upper trough over the
western CONUS.

An upper wave ejects from the western trough on Friday as a cold
front slowly approaches the area. This set up will aid in the
development of storms, particularly along the surface trough near
the Colorado border. Moisture begins to advect into the region. With
increasing shear and raised instability, am anticipating a few
strong to severe thunderstorms on Friday. Similar parameters in
place lead to the potential for another round of strong to severe on
Saturday.

The upper trough over the western portion of the country is slow to
progress east during the weekend, keeping the forecast wet. The cold
front associated with the system becomes nearly stationary across
our area and will be an initiation point for convection. This slow
moving system, PWATs in the 1 to 1.5 inch range, and storm motions
parallel to the frontal boundary (which may generate training
thunderstorms) lead to a concern for heavy rainfall and flashing
flooding this weekend. The threats with this system will be
monitored in the coming days. Precipitation chances continue early
next week but decrease as the upper trough presses east and sends
some disturbances onto the High Plains.

High temperatures peak near 90 degrees on Thursday before steadily
cooling through the rest of the period (into the 60s across the area
on Monday). Lows fall from the 50s and 60s Thursday night to the 40s
Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017

VFR conditions for both forecast sites with a mix of SKC-FEW250.
Winds for KGLD...SW 15-25kts thru 01z Wed...then SW around
10-15kts. By 04z Wed...NNW around 10kts becoming NE by 14z. Winds
for KMCK...S around 10-15kts w/ gusts to 25kts aft 19z. By 02z
Wed...W around 15kts becoming NNW 5-15kts. LLWS for KGLD 04z-10z
Wed 330@40kts. LLWS for KMCK 04z-10z Wed 330@40kts.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ252>254.

NE...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JBH
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JN


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