Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 171943
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
143 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

An upper level low pressure area that has been over the area the
past few days is forecast to lift northeast toward McCook by 18z
then across the far northeast and east by days end and finally out
of the area by sunrise Tuesday morning. Plenty of moisture exists in
the vicinity of the low which will help promote shower and
thunderstorm activity, some of which will produce locally heavy
rainfall. For Tuesday and Tuesday night weather disturbances will
graze the far northern zones around periphery of upper ridge
continuing a low chance for thunderstorms. For Wednesday 596dm upper
high is centered over central Kansas into Oklahoma with better
moisture needed for precipitation well west and northwest of the
area.

High temperatures today in the low to mid 90s. For Tuesday 850mb
temperatures warm another 3F to 7F supporting highs in the mid 90s
to around 104, hottest in extreme southwest Nebraska and Norton/Hill
City areas. For Wednesday looking again for highs in the upper 90s
to around 107, hottest in McCook southeast through Hill City. Low
temperatures through the period in the low 60s to low 70s (west to
east).

A Heat Advisory may be needed Tuesday afternoon through early
evening generally along and east of a line from near Benkelman
Nebraska to Hoxie and Gove Kansas. In this area heat index values of
104 to 108 degrees are forecast. For Wednesday afternoon through
early evening A Heat Advisory may be needed generally along and east
of a line from near Trenton Nebraska to Hoxie and Quinter Kansas
where values of 104 to 108 are forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 143 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Tuesday night a weather disturbances will graze around periphery of
upper ridge. This may produce showers and slight thunderstorm
chances for the far northern area of our CWA, Otherwise expect dry
conditions.

Wednesday and Thursday high pressure will influence the region with
a very hot air mass. This will produce mostly dry conditions with
high temperatures reaching from the lower 90s to the around 105,
with the hottest areas being mostly extreme southwest Nebraska and
western Kansas. Some area along the state line may reach up to
around 100. Low temperatures through this time frame will drop into
the lower 60 to middle 70s (west to east). A Heat Advisory will most
likely be issue during this time with the area of focus being along
and east of a line from near Benkelman Nebraska to Hoxie and Gove
Kansas. Please watch out for more details if/when the Heat Advisory
is issue.

Thursday night and Friday: Instability will begin to increase slowly
from the west and northwest along a boundary that looks to enter our
region. A few thunderstorms could form mainly in the far
northwestern corner of the CWA. This boundary looks to move further
southeastward into our region and weaken, bringing thunderstorm
chances further into our region with a few stronger storms possible.
Temperatures on Friday will be well above average, climbing into the
upper 90s to just over 100 degrees.

Saturday through Sunday: A cold front looks to move through the
region on Saturday. This will most likely produce more widespread
thunderstorm chances during the afternoon and evening hours as the
front slows down over our CWA. The environment that is expected with
this frontal passage does support the development of a few strong to
severe thunderstorms along and ahead of it. Another round of
thunderstorms looks to develop Sunday afternoon as the front slowly
moves out of the region.

On Monday dry conditions look to return to the local areas as
another ridge of high pressure build over the region.

High temperatures Saturday through Monday will be much cooler than
the past few days, with highs generally reaching the middle 80s to
middle 90s with Saturday being the warmest day of the three.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

VFR conditions should prevail at KGLD and KMCK terminal. Showers
and thunderstorms may develop by 22Z near KMCK. Visibility may
decrease to 3-6sm range if a stronger storm impacts the terminal,
however confidence was not high enough to include at this time.
This activity should remain east of KGLD. Southerly winds may
gust 20-25kt this afternoon mainly at KMCK before decreasing early
this evening and then remaining below 12kt the rest of the TAF
period. There may be a period of low level wind shear at KMCK
late tonight before the low level jet shift east of the region by
sunrise.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...DR



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