Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 151133
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
533 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AND THEN TRANSITION TO WESTERLY
AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW EAST OF THE ROCKIES.  A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THE
TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL
HAVE INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THE FA. AS A RESULT, POPS
WILL BE NIL FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. PLAN TO
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN EASTERN COLORADO.  MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AT BEST.  DO
NOT PLAN ON INCREASING POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
MUCH PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SURFACE EXCEPT AROUND 12Z TO 18Z
THURSDAY.  PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AND THEN
MODERATE TO LIGHT RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP THURSDAY. RAIN AND
SNOW WILL CONTINIUE IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE COLDER AIR RESIDES.
SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NIL POPS FOR
THAT PERIOD.

IF WINDS GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST TODAY THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SOUTHERN FA WHERE RH VALUES APPROACH 15
PERCENT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. FOR NOW THREAT APPEARS ONLY
MARGINAL.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE TO THE LOW TO MID 60S.  INCREASING
CLOUDS IN THE WEST WILL HOLD MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER 60S IN THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WILL VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 40 IN THE
SOUTHEAST.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S, THE UPPER
20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AROUND 30 THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY.  HOWEVER WINDS WILL STILL BE BREEZY
DUE TO 850MB WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.  FURTHER WEST THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL SPLIT OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

SATURDAY THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA.  AS IT DOES SO A SMALLER SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA.  AT THE SURFACE A SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
PUSHING A DRY LINE AHEAD OF IT.  WITH VERY LITTLE CIN TO HOLD
CONVECTION BACK...ANTICIPATE STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SMALLER SCALE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE DRY LINE.  DUE TO CAPE
VALUES OF 500J/KG OR SO...ANTICIPATE THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO
REMAIN MORE ISOLATED THAN THE RAIN SHOWERS.  STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN TAPER OFF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE 500MB
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH...ENDING PRECIP. BEHIND IT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDTIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO
EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...FS






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