Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 271909
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
109 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

MESSY SITUATION WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH LARGE
UPPER LOW OVER NW COLORADO WHICH WILL SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES
NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...SFC HEATING WILL GENERATE POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH TSRA DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WV SATELLITE
SHOWS THE FIRST UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO EASTERN
COLORADO AT THE MOMENT WHICH WILL ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
A FEW STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL GENERATE A
SECOND AREA OF TSRA WHICH WILL REACH EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EVENING...CONTINUING TONIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
AGAIN THIS EVENING IN WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THE SECOND ROUND OF
STORMS WHICH WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN EASTERN AREAS...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY LOW
SO OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LIMITED. STORMS WILL END WEST TO
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN
FAR EASTERN AREAS FRIDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN RATHER QUICKLY
AS NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY.
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OUT OF
NORTHERN COLORADO WILL BRING SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH ON MONDAY FOR CONTINUED LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO DECLINE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY...ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THEN NEAR
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

LARGE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO WILL IMPACT
BOTH TAF SITES WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW
WILL ULTIMATELY FORM OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS EVENING AND MOVE
INTO WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL BE FL030-040 THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING OVERNIGHT TO
IFR AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER. TSRA WILL BE HIT AND MISS VARIETY
FROM 18Z-22Z WITH BEST CHANCES AFTER 02Z AT KGLD AND AFTER 22Z AT
KMCK.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DLF


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.