Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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807
FXUS63 KGLD 302018
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
218 PM MDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1236 PM MDT Fri Sep 30 2016

An upper level short wave trough moves through the apex of the
persistent upper ridge in place over the high plains region during
the day on Saturday. Models hint at an area of showers moving off
the Palmer Divide area during the Saturday afternoon and evening
with another area of thunderstorms possibly developing along a
weak dryline in place over the panhandle region of Texas and
Oklahoma. A few of these storms may extend north far enough
through southwest Kansas and into northwest Kansas to track
across the southern reaches of the forecast area late in the day.
But with a mostly dry airmass with available moisture confined
mainly between 700-500MB, have gone ahead and kept the period
between Tonight and Saturday dry.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 233 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2016

High pressure retreats eastward on Monday as a low pressure system
approaches the region. Global models are in relatively good
agreement as of the 00Z runs with regards to timing; however the GFS
is a bit further south with the center of the H5 low. Western
portions of the CWA will see low end slgt chc PoPs as this region
will remain in the dry slot of the low. Areas east of the Colorado
Kansas border will see gradually better thunderstorm chances Tuesday
afternoon and evening from west to east. There is a severe threat as
we head into the afternoon and evening mainly for areas east of a
line from Trenton, Nebraska to Colby, KS to Leoti, KS. CAPE values
will be as high as 1200 J/Kg (GFS) with bulk shear around 40 to 60
kts (GFS/ECMWF). Both global models are consistently indicating even
better severe indices just east of the CWA after 18Z. Although this
is still several days out, the current trends and indices would tend
to illustrate a threat of supercells producing large hail, damaging
wind gusts and tornadoes. There will be some inhibition to storm
initiation as a cold front will be advecting large amounts of dry
air into the CWA that will push slightly ahead of the front at the
surface, within the areas of best lift. Areas west of the
aforementioned line would likely see very slow thunderstorm
initiation with lower chances for strong or severe weather.

The front will move east of the CWA by sunrise Wednesday with the H5
low situated to the north to northwest of the region. Will need to
monitor for the possibility of high fire danger especially in the
eastern Colorado counties as gusty winds and low relative humidity will
prevail behind the front in the presence of increasingly dry
fuels. As the system pulls east northeast, we will see nearly
zonal flow develop with westerly to northwesterly flow aloft.
Global guidance at this point disagrees a bit more significantly
as the ECMWF holds on to northwest flow aloft and the GFS
consistently shows westerly flow as we head into Thursday. In
either case, we are looking at a dry forecast through Friday with
the ECMWF indicating slightly better post frontal CAA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1143 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at MCK and GLD.
Gusty south southeast winds this afternoon will diminish around
sunset and will remain light through the remainder of the TAF
period.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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