Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 291741
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1141 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. HAVE THEM CONTINUING EAST FOR
A FEW HOURS AND WILL RE-EVALUATE SHORT TERM POP/WX GRIDS AT A LATER
TIME. OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE DURING THE MORNING BEFORE BETTER MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST
1/3-1/2 OF THE AREA GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE BY THE END OF
THE DAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD END BY EARLY TO MID EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH AND DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. NORTH WINDS
GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH WILL BE COMMON FOR MANY. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH
LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS STABLE HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE NIGHT AS SFC SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH MORNING CLOUDINESS PER
GFS/NAM 850-700MB MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA BUT AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES CLOUDINESS WILL STEADILY DECREASE LEAVING A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. A CLEAR SKY EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE THREAT FOR STRATUS MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST COAST. INSTABILITY
AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OR SO OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FOR LATER SHIFTS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO. HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK INTO
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOW TO
MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WEAK 500 MB RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WILL SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION...THOUGH ECMWF IS AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE FRONT RANGE. SO...THE QUESTION IS
WHETHER THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. INSTABILITY DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DECENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW...WILL COUNT ON THE MID LAYER SUBSIDENCE...LACK OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY...AND GFS SOLUTION TO INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. SO...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 25-30 DEGREE
CELSIUS RANGE...SO EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 80S.

MID LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT
500 MB TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...ECMWF DEVELOPS CONVECTION OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND ADVECTS
STORMS OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE DRY. EVEN THE
GFS HINTS AT A DRY LINE FORMING OVER EASTERN COLORADO BY THE
AFTERNOON. CAPES EAST OF THE DRIER AIR WILL BE OVER 2000 J/KG. WITH
LESS SUBSIDENCE...MENTIONED STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORMS MOVING OVER AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70 TUESDAY EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE DECENT
ASCENT...SO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. THERE SHOULD
ALSO BE SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER AS
LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS. MID LEVEL SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK TOO
IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME...BUT CAPES AGAIN WILL BE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND
VICINITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH KMCK AND KGLD FOR THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE PRESENT
OVERNIGHT. LOW CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH CLOUD
DECK BREAKING AT BOTH SITES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...MK


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