Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 012044
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
144 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

COLD AND WINDY DAY TODAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO
REACH THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WHICH ENDED UP BEING COOLER
THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE INDICATED. SUNSHINE...FAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES ALOFT...AND MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT CAUSED FLURRIES/BRIEF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. ONCE THE SUN STARTS GOING DOWN...AIR MASS
SHOULD STABILIZE QUICKLY AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE
BY EARLY EVENING.

WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE RAPIDLY. SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE EVENING WITH A SHIFT OVER TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE NIGHT. SO THE PROBLEM BECOMES HOW MUCH DO THE
TEMPERATURES DROP BEFORE THE WINDS BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO SLOW UP
OR END THE FALL. SINCE MOST GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM TO START OUT
WITH BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
COOLEST GUIDANCE BEFORE BECOME STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE. COOLEST
READINGS WILL BE IN THE EAST.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER ON MONDAY.
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER
THE WESTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS. THE COLDER AIR AND LESS DOWNSLOPE
LOOKS TO HOLD ON LONGER IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. TO
COMPLICATE MATTERS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A SLUG OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. BECAUSE OF THIS CLOUD COVER...AM RELUCTANT TO WARM UP
TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH. SO TENDED TO GO A LITTLE UNDER THE WARMER
GUIDANCE.

LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH A LARGE DEPTH SO AM THINKING WILL
NOT HAVE A CHANCE EVEN FOR SOME SPRINKLES TOMORROW SO LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  HIGHS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT REMAIN BELOW ANY RECORDS.

A COLD FRONT BACKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION IN
THE AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW THAT EXTENDS NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS IT ALSO PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A MAXIMUM OF 1-2 INCHES OF
SNOW THAT WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES EAST OUT OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION
AS IT IS ALSO FLATTENED BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A DIRTY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

FOR KGLD...SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL ALLOW MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE
AND PERIODIC FLURRIES TO OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY STABILIZE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.
NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 26 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 37 KNOTS WILL
QUICKLY DECREASE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. AFTER THAT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS.

FOR KMCK...SPORADIC AND TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE SUN GOES DONE. THEN
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTHERLY
WINDS OF NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS WILL QUICKLY
SUBSIDE NEAR SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 10 KNOTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...BULLER


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