Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 201118
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
518 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLEAR. WINDS WERE WEST AT 5 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION WITH A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS
CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A STRONGER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE
DISTURBANCE TO BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR TODAY...YET ANOTHER SUNNY...DRY AND WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE ONLY REAL WEATHER CHANGE TO NOTE TODAY IS
THAT A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS LEADS TO
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING AND THE BEGINNING OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO PUMP IN MOISTURE.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES...THINK THAT THIS SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEADS TO FOG/STRATUS FORMATION. ACCORDING TO
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...THE MAIN FOG THREAT AREA SHOULD BE ALONG
THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER INTO EASTERN COLORADO. FOR LOCATIONS MOST
FAVORABLE...INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG MENTION WITH PATCHY FOG MENTION
SURROUNDING. HARD TO TELL HOW FAR EAST THE FOG/STRATUS MAKES IT
BEFORE SUNRISE. THINKING THAT FOG/STRATUS MAY ONLY REACH COLBY AND
OAKLEY AS THE FAR EASTERN EXTENT.

FOR TOMORROW...FOG LIFTS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRATUS REMAINS WELL INTO AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY LEAD TO A HIGH TEMP FORECAST BUST.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES EAST OF A HAIGLER NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND AND
RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE DUE TO EXPECTED STRATUS. THE MET/NAM
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS IDEA BEST SO RELIED ON THIS
GUIDANCE FOR FOG/STRATUS SCENARIO.

FOR TOMORROW NIGHT...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN AS THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. OVERALL...QUIET WEATHER
CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS A WEAK...LEAD
DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE HIGH PLAINS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS THE MAIN FORCING REMAINS WEST AND HIGHEST
INSTABILITY RESIDES TO THE EAST. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS
APPEARS POSSIBLE EAST OF A STRATTON NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS LINE AS
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. THIS THREAT MAY BE ELIMINATED
BY STRONGER WINDS AND HIGH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY. FOR THE MORNING
HOURS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER SHALL PERSIST
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MAIN ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...GENERALLY EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER. MUCAPE AROUND 600-800 J/KG...850-500 MB
LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
PARAMETERS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH REGARDS TO A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT BUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD FORM
ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST KANSAS AND HEAD EAST. MAY HAVE HELD ON TO POPS
TOO LONG AS ITS POSSIBLE ALL PRECIPITATION EXITS TO EAST BY
MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE LINE OF STORMS EXPECTED IS MORE PERSISTENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AND EXPAND OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO RESIDE
OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN
COLORADO SUNDAY.  SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS SO POPS
WILL BE NIL.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE IN THE MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 518 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
UNTIL STRATUS/FOG MOVES IN AFTER 09Z TOMORROW. LIGHT WEST WINDS
THIS MORNING BACK SOUTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PULL MOISTURE IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE STRATUS/FOG
HAS DEVELOPED. SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT OVER KGLD
AND EVENTUALLY KMCK TOMORROW MORNING. PLACED A FIRST GUESS INTO
TAF FOR STRATUS/FOG. KGLD LIKELY IMPACTED BY END OF TAF PERIOD.
KMCK MAY NOT BE IMPACTED BY STRATUS UNTIL AFTER 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS EXISTS...DOWN TO LIFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH



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