Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 191110

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
410 AM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 407 AM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

CAA has continue into the area this morning. Temperatures will
continue to trend downward today and tomorrow as a low continues
to develop east of our area. Highs will have a drastic range from
the mid 20s in the northern half of our CWA versus our southern
counties reaching the upper 30s to the lower 40s.

Tonight, we will finally see the system move through the area
quickly. Expecting snowfall totals of 1 to 2 inches for our
northern CWA. Wednesday morning, temperatures are expected to
feel in the negative single digits for several hours. Not low
enough to meet any advisory criteria, but felt it was worth

Wednesday, cooler temperatures will spread more evenly across the
Tri-State region bringing our max temperatures in the 20s. Lastly,
Wednesday night, expect single digit lows, with the temperatures
feeling as if they were negative single digits.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

Wednesday to Friday: A Canadian airmass extending southward into
the region Wed/Wed night will shift eastward to the Great Lakes
Thu/Thu night as cyclonic flow /troughing/ aloft becomes more
pronounced over the Intermountain West and a lee cyclone develops
in E/SE Colorado. With the above in mind, expect cold temperatures
lingering Wed/Wed night followed by a warming trend on Thu and Fri.

Light precipitation cannot be ruled out at times Thu-Fri, presumably
in assoc/w episodic warm advection and shallow frontogenesis (on
the N/NE periphery of a waxing/waning lee cyclone) modulated by a
series of small amplitude shortwaves ejecting northeast from the
Desert Southwest into the High Plains. With such a pattern,
confidence is very low with regard to whether or not light
precipitation will develop in eastern Colorado and western KS, let
alone timing, p-type, or

Friday night to Sunday: The west CONUS trough is expected to
become progressive Fri night into Sat as potent shortwave energy
digs southeast ashore the Pacific coast. Guidance suggests that this
feature will de-amplify as it traverses the Rockies and progresses
into the Central Plains early Saturday. Some potential for light
precipitation will exist as this feature progresses east of the
Rockies across portions of the Southern/Central Plains Fri night
and Sat, however, confidence is low given the increasingly
complex/progressive synoptic pattern evolving over North America
this weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1000 PM MST Sun Feb 18 2018

KGLD, ifr cigs expected from taf issuance through about 11z then
mvfr through 16z with winds gusting 20-25kts. After 17z vfr
conditions return through 02z with winds from the northeast
initially, veering to the east and slowly increasing in speed with
gusts near 25kts possible. After 03z cigs fall back to mvfr/ifr
category in post upslope flow and winds from the east near 12kts.

KMCK, mvfr/ifr cigs expected from taf issuance through about 21z.
Winds initially from the northeast gusting near 30kts but should
subside before sunrise. From 22z-00z cigs bounce in between
vfr/mvfr with winds remaining from the east-northeast near 15kts.
After 01z cigs fall to mvfr category again with winds from the
northeast near 12-13kts.




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