Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 222058
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
158 PM MST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 158 PM MST Sun Jan 22 2017

Upper level ridging is in place over the SW US and building east
into the Central Rockies. Subsidence and a deep dry air mass
within the eastern extend of this ridge extends across our CWA.
A strong upper low is off the Pacific Northwest coast with
diffluent flow between these upper level features over the Great
Basin.

Tonight-Sunday: Quiet period expected as upper level shortwave
ridge transitions over our CWA. WAA increases with south-
southwest low level flow (east of lee trough), and this will
result in above normal high temperatures. High clouds do increase
tonight and this could complicate cooling potential tonight and
warming potential Monday. It does appear that a period of clearing
should occur by the afternoon. Considering temps aloft, clearing
skies, and good mixing we may see highs into the mid 60s for some
locations and many locations at or over 60F. Impact of snow pack
should be diminished after another day of melting, though it was
still accounted for in latest forecast. Good mixing and increasing
gradient east of the surface low should also lead to another
ground of breezy-windy conditions Monday (gusts 25-35mph
possible).

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 222 AM MST Sun Jan 22 2017

Tuesday/Tuesday night the upper level short wave trough will move
across the forecast area.  Precipitation chances increase through
the day and into the evening then decline as subsidence moves in
from the west.  Current forecast has a chance for rain during the
day.  However have more confidence of snow being the primary
precipitation type due to the precipitation coming in from the
northwest with strong CAA occurring.  Based on CIPS analysis looks
like storm systems similar to this one in the past brought as much
as four inches of snow.  The probability of receiving more than two
inches of snow is 30-40%.  SREF plume models for total snow show
less than an inch of accumulation.  This seems to be well in line
with other model snowfall amounts, giving confidence that snowfall
amounts will likely be small if the current storm track comes to
fruition.

Highs may end up occurring in the morning due to the CAA through the
day.  The trend in highs for Tuesday has been to gradually cool, so
current forecast may be a few degrees too warm.

During the afternoon northwest winds will become gusty, with gusts
of 30-40 MPH.  The strongest winds will be over the west half of the
forecast area.  With snowfall occurring at the same time, reduced
visibilities can be expected and will likely be the primary impact.

Regarding model analysis, the ECMWF and GFS, as well as the GEFS
members, are all in fairly good agreement with the track of the
trough.  The NAM has a weaker trough so was discounted for the
forecast.  The Canadian continues to remain further south and has
almost the exact same track as its previous run, directly across the
forecast area.  Due to the ECMWF and GEFS/GFS models remaining
further north have more confidence with this track, the question is
how far north. The primary difference between the ECMWF and the GFS
is how far north the dry slot will be as the closed low moves
through the High Plains.  Most of our precipitation will be
occurring behind the closed low, so the further south the dry slot
is the earlier the precipitation will begin.

The extended period is expected to be tranquil as ridge of high
pressure builds into the western States and a deep trough prevails
in the east. A transverse shortwave will traverse the outer
periphery of the large, eastern trough as we head into Friday and
Saturday; however, the current guidance is showing no indications of
precipitation chances. Both the ECMWF and GFS continue to keep the
CWA situated between the eastern trough and the western ridge
through Saturday, meaning a dry and tranquil forecast through next
weekend with a slow warming trend as Saturday approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1023 AM MST Sun Jan 22 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period at KGLD and
KMCK terminals. Gusty northwest winds will continue through the
daytime period today, decreasing by late afternoon as surface high
pressure builds into NW Kansas and SW Nebraska. Strongest gusts
25-30kt will be at KGLD where main low level jet axis is in place.
Winds will remain below 12kt after they decrease around 00z,
shifting to the west then south through the TAF period.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL/JTL
AVIATION...DR


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