Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 211205
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
605 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINS OVER THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND SHARPENS AS A RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AREA AS THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS OUT
ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE LAGER
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS EFFECTIVELY
KEEPS SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WITH
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW LIFTING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE STRONGER WAVES
LIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION. A SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY FRIDAY EVENING WITH A SECONDARY LOW
LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE THE BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALSO EXISTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BRINGS MOIST MONSOONAL AIR INTO
THE REGION AS WELL AS NUMBER OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES. TEMPS MAY
NOT BE AS COOL AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
POPS FOR SUNDAY SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STABLE ENVIRONMENT
WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...A MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS COLORADO COULD PRODUCE SOME OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGHS SOMEWHAT COOLER...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
LOWS NEAR 60.

MONDAY...ANY CONVECTION ONGOING FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND DUE TO MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. LATE DAY
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE WITH NEARLY 1000 J/KG MUCAPE FOR STORMS TO
WORK WITH...BUT A DRY LAYER BELOW 600MB WOULD PROBABLY LEAD TO JUST
SOME GUSTY SHOWERS. HIGHS WARM UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE LOW 90S DUE TO THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE
THROUGHOUT NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO LATE TUESDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
SWING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BRINGING SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE
FORCING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. AT PRESENT TIME...GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WET SOLUTION. ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER...KEEPING THE TROUGH AXIS FARTHER WEST DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. CANADIAN SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
GFS BUT SIMILAR ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT TO SUPPORT KEEPING 50+ POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WINDS DURING
THE DAY AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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