Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 132004
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
204 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL US WITH TWO DISTINCT H5/H7
CIRCULATIONS OVER THE PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE FIRST
CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATED THE H5/H7 LOW NO OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
NEBRASKA...RESPONSIBLE FOR DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW THAT FORMED
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS NOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. THE SECOND CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATE
WITH A SECOND CLOSED H7 LOW AND H5 TROUGH DEEPENING OVER WESTERN
COLORADO.

REGARDING WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WINDS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO APPROACH CRITERIA THOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT TIMES. THE PLAN IS TO HOLD ONTO THE ONGOING WIND
ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE BEST PRESSURE RISES ARE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND PROBABLY CANCEL THE
ADVISORY BEFORE 00Z.

REGARDING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS
THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS RESPONSIBLE FOR
BRINGING WINTRY WEATHER TO OUR CWA TODAY/TONIGHT. THE DEFORMATION
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OVER NEBRASKA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO TRANSITION NORTH AND EAST...WITH MAIN IMPACT OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE CWA WINDING DOWN AROUND 00Z. I COULD SEE US CANCELING
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ADVISORY EARLY (00Z-03Z) AS WE WILL LIKELY
NOT SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA MET UP NORTH WITH THE 2ND UPPER LOW. THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE ADVISORY (KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE CO) HAVE
AVOIDED THE BRUNT OF THIS FIRST WAVE...HOWEVER THE SECOND
CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW INTO
EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING AND THIS IS WHEN THESE LOCATIONS
MAY SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT. CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY HIGHER FOR KIT
CARSON/CHEYENNE CO TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING THAN
SHERMAN. SHERMAN/WALLACE/GREELEY COULD BE CLOSE BASED ON LATEST
MODEL OUTPUT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD
WALLACE/GREELEY...OR CANCEL SHERMAN AT THIS POINT. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR NEAR TERM TRENDS. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTH AND THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WITH MAYBE SNOW LINGERING THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY IN
THE FAR SOUTH.

REGARDING ANTICIPATED IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER MODERATE-HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
THIS EVENING OVER KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COLORADO COUNTIES. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL CONTINUE BRING BLOWING SNOW
CHANCES AND LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES THROUGH AROUND 03Z.

LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS...HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY WITH SUB
FREEZING TEMPS ALREADY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND UPSTREAM TEMPS
IN THE 23-25F ALREADY BEING REPORTED. TOO EARLY IN THE SEASON TO
ISSUE FROST/FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS CONSIDERING CLIMATE NORMS FOR LAST
FROST/FREEZE. AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME MONDAY...HOWEVER
HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE 40S ACROSS
THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL HAVE COOLER
TEMPERATURES NORTHWEST. COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AS LIFT INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
HAVE A CHANCE FOR SNOW NORTHWEST AND RAIN AND SNOW ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS EVENT LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE
OCCURRING TODAY ACROSS THE AREA AND COULD BRING ANOTHER FEW INCHES
OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH GFS FORECAST OF UP TO A FOOT LOOKS
OVERDONE. DROPPED TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS MUCH AS ISC
ALLOWED...BUT WITH CLOUDS/UPSLOPE/PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTING MUCH
WARMING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING REBUILDS ON FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM ON SATURDAY LOOKS RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME AND MAY
BE TOO FAR SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP IT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

AT KMCK...VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING CURRENTLY BECAUSE OF ONE
QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY FROM SNOW. RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM OBS
SUGGEST THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE
SNOW INTENSITY LESSENS AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO IFR. LIGHT SNOW
AND IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. IN THE 03-06Z PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN.

AT KGLD...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AND MOST SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT 20-21Z WITH A BAND OF SNOW
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINAL. RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS WERE USED FOR TIMING THE IFR AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY NEAR
LIFR CONDITIONS TRANSITIONING TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING. IN THE
04-07Z PERIOD...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO VFR.

FOR BOTH TERMINALS...NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST AND COULD GUST TO 35
KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER SLIGHTLY TO A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT...BUT 12-20 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT
     FOR KSZ001>004-013.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ014>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
     COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT
     FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BRB






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