Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 220549

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1149 PM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Issued at 710 PM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Due to no severe storms developing over the last hour or so have
canceled the severe thunderstorm watch. Isolated storms will
continue for the next couple hours then shift east of
Graham/Norton counties.

UPDATE Issued at 340 PM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Updated forecast to include the SVR watch for the
eastern/southeastern portion of the forecast area through 03Z.
Some marginally severe storms have already developed along the
southern edge of the forecast area. Additional storms may develop
east of a surface trough across the eastern sections of the
forecast area over the next few hours.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 154 PM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Forecast concerns are the hot temperatures and the potential for
thunderstorms and severe weather this afternoon and evening.
Additionally, cooler, but still quite warm, temperatures are
expected along with scattered showers and thunderstorms with a
slight risk of severe storms on Thursday as a cold front moves
through the area.

A few thunderstorms are currently rolling off the Palmer divide
region and traveling into far western Kansas while additional CU
are beginning to initiate east of a surface trough bisecting the
forecast area from north to south. Instabilities are higher, but
the atmosphere is still relatively dry where afternoon
temperatures are around 100 and dewpoints are in the mid 50s to
mid 60s ahead of the surface trough. On the back side of the
trough, the atmosphere is much drier with dewpoints in the 30s and
40s. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase east of the
surface through the afternoon as a weak mid level short wave in
the nearly zonal flow moves east across the high plains this
afternoon and out of the forecast area this evening. A few storms
could become severe with large hail, damaging winds, and localized
heavy rain.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on Thursday as a
prefrontal trough moves into the area during the morning with a
cold front expected to slide south across the forecast area
between 18-00Z. There is currently a slight risk of storms
becoming severe across the entire forecast area with the
possibility of large hail, damaging winds, and localized heavy
rainfall with some of the stronger storms that may develop.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 154 PM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Thursday night-Friday: A chance for thunderstorms and showers will
continue behind the cold front through the evening and overnight
hours for the majority of the area. For Friday, chance of rain in
the morning, diminishing in the afternoon. Soundings show good CAA
into the area Friday afternoon and night. Temps for Friday will be
below normal with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 and lows in the
lower 50s.

Saturday-Sunday: Saturday looks to be the coolest day of the period.
Upslope flow at the surface, abundant moisture at 700mb, surface
troughing, and NW flow in the upper levels will combine to make for
a cloudy, and at times, rainy day. Current temperature forecast is
still warmer than some of the reliable guidance. One note, if 12Z
GFS MOS verifies, Goodland would break the record low maximum for
the day (Record is 67 and MOS has 66). Lows Saturday night will be
in the mid to upper 40s which may put a few records in jeopardy.
Chance of rain continues into Sunday morning for the entire CWA.
Highs will be 10-15 degrees below normal as most areas dry out
through the afternoon with upper level ridging building in aloft.

Monday-Wednesday: Next chance of rain and thunderstorms comes Monday
evening where the potential of strong to severe storms exist. CWA
will see blustery conditions Tuesday into Wednesday. Temps should
warm through the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Southerly winds tonight will
turn to the north during the morning ahead of a cold front that
moves through. Behind the cold front winds will turn slightly to
the northeast and become gusty. The gusty winds will end shortly
after 0z. KGLD could have some storms in the vicinity in the
afternoon with a better chance in the evening. However coverage
may be too limited to include in the TAF at this time.




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