Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 121033

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
433 AM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 235 AM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Today-Friday: Southwest flow aloft will prevail over the Tri-
State region through Friday, between an expansive ridge along the
Gulf coast and a stalled upper trough over the PAC NW and
Intermountain West. Southwest flow aloft will strengthen this
evening/tonight as shortwave energy rounds the base of the PAC NW
trough and lifts NE across the northern Rockies/Upper Midwest. A
lee cyclone will strengthen over eastern CO this evening and
progress into central KS late tonight/Friday as high pressure
strengthens over the Upper Midwest (via subsidence in the wake of
the aforementioned wave) and extends southward into west/sw KS as
a back-door cold front. Expect above normal highs in the lower to
mid 80s today in assoc/w southerly flow /warm advection/ on the
eastern periphery of the lee trough. Challenging temperature
forecast tonight into Friday. Overnight lows will highly depend
upon the timing/location of the back-door cold front, as will
daytime highs on Friday. At this time, expect lows ranging from
the lower 40s N/NW to near 50F S/SE, with highs on Friday ranging
from ~60F in the N/NW to mid/upper 60s in the far S/SE. Dry
conditions will persist as expansive high pressure along the Gulf
coast significantly limits low-level moisture return.

Fri Night-Sat Night: The upper trough over the Pacific NW will
become progressive Fri night as potent shortwave energy digs SSE
into the PAC NW. The upper trough is expected to track east across
the northern Rockies and Upper Midwest Sat/Sat Night. A
stationary front will extend NE from the lee cyclone in southwest
KS to far northeast KS Sat morning. However, the boundary will
surge rapidly south/southeast into OK/MO/AR Sat afternoon into Sat
night as strong high pressure extends into the region from the
N/NNW. Shower activity will be possible invof the boundary Sat
morning (primarily E/SE portions of CWA), however, poor diurnal
timing and limited moisture return suggest limited coverage at
best. Strong CAA thereafter suggests dry conditions will prevail
Sat aft/night. Challenging temperature fcst. Highs are expected to
occur by ~18Z, with temps crashing through the 50s and into the
40s from N-S during the afternoon hours. Lows Sat night will be
driven primarily by CAA, with temps ranging from the lower 30s in
eastern CO to mid/upper 30s elsewhere.

High Winds: Rapid pressure rises will result in a period of
strong northerly winds late Sat afternoon/evening. At this time,
expect sustained winds increasing to 25-35 mph with frequent
gusts to 40-50 mph between roughly 21Z Sat and 06Z Sun, strongest
in S/SE parts of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 100 AM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Forecast area under northwest flow aloft in between a trough
across the Mid Atlantic and high pressure over Mexico. Upper ridge
axis approaches the area Tuesday and Tuesday night before flattening
and shifting east as flow shifts to the west ahead of a storm
system over the Pacific northwest.

Little if any cloudiness through Monday then some increase in high
clouds possible Tuesday and likely Wednesday. With the lack of
clouds/moisture little if any chance of precipitation.

High temperatures Sunday in the mid 50s to around 60, upper 60s to
low 70s Monday and Wednesday, low 70s Tuesday.

Low temperatures Sunday night in the low to upper 30s, mid 30s to
low 40s Monday night, upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 428 AM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017

VFR conditions will continue to rule through the TAF period in
association with a dry airmass over the Tri-State region. Expect
variable winds at 5-8 knots today due to a weak MSLP gradient
associated with a lee cyclone extending from eastern CO into
western KS. Winds will abruptly shift to the NE at 15-20 knots
between 03-06Z Friday (earlier at MCK, later at GLD) as the
aforementioned sfc low progresses into central KS and high
pressure extends into the region from the north. Winds should
gradually become northerly and decrease to 10-15 knots by the end
of the 12Z TAF period.




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