Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 141737

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1037 AM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

Issued at 1032 AM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

Just completed an update. Snow is falling just to the north and
west of the area. The snow to the north has been captured by the
ongoing forecast and made no changes there. However, needed to add
some precipitation to the far west. This is due to moderate mid
level frontogenesis and high level deformation acting on theta-e
lapse rates near zero. I added a low chance of a rain/snow mix
through the afternoon. By that time, the air mass will have


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 245 AM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

Weak shortwave trough moving down the Front Range is producing
scattered flurries overnight. Observations have shown visibility
reductions of 3-5 miles but only trace amounts of precipitation.
The activity is quickly pushing south and should be done by around
15z this morning with minimal impacts. Secondary shortwave trough
moving out of the northern plains this afternoon will bring low
chances for rain/snow showers to eastern parts of the area. Once
again, measurable precipitation amounts will be low due to limited
moisture, weak forcing and fast movement in the northwest flow.

Upper ridge rebuilds for Friday with temperatures recovering to
the middle and upper 50s. Relative humidity values will plummet to
around 15 percent in the afternoon with a dry, downsloping
westerly wind. However, wind speeds currently fall short of
criteria for critical fire weather conditions, though with the
very dry fuels might see some elevated conditions.

Saturday will be a transitional day as the upper ridge flattens
ahead of the next system digging into the Four Corners.
Temperatures will hinge on timing of a cold front, which will
makes its way through the area during the morning to early
afternoon hours. Any precipitation chances will hold off until
Saturday night, with a weak shortwave trough moving northward
ahead of the western system. Thermal profiles will be cold enough
for light snow by that time, though accumulations, if any, will be
very light, primarily in eastern Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 AM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

There is good agreement between the global models regarding a deep
H5 trough and associated cold front that will traverse the region on
Sunday. A relatively strong theta-e boundary will provide a focus
for light snow to develop along the front as it pushes from
northwest to southeast. Not expecting much in the way of
accumulations as QPF is near 0.01 inch as the boundary moves through
the region. High temperatures on Sunday will likely not climb out of
the 30s across much of the CWA.

For Monday and Tuesday, ridging will influence the region from west
to east. Afternoon highs will rebound back into the 50s as a result
with dry conditions expected both days.

Ridge axis passes to our east as we head into Wednesday with
relatively strong trough approaching the region from the west.
Models sharply disagree both temporally and spatially with this
system, especially as we head into Thursday afternoon. ECMWF remains
more progressive, followed by the Canadian, with the GFS being the
slowest and deepest of the three. Although there are differences in
the guidance, the consensus does agree upon a pattern change that
will likely bring much colder air to the central High Plains going
into next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1032 AM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. Northwest winds
will be near 22 knots with gusts to near 30 knots through sunset.
At that time, the gusts will stop as the sustained speeds decrease
into the 10 to 15 knot range. By late in the evening the winds
will shift to the southwest at 7 to 12 knots. These winds will
continue through the end of the period.




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