Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 261935
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1235 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED CWA ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF 582
DM RIDGE OVER WESTERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES HAVE RAPIDLY CLIMBED
INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH WARMER THINGS GET TOMORROW
AND IF COMBINATION OF WARMTH/WIND WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ABOUT 5C BY 12Z TOMORROW AND WITH
RIDGE AXIS LIKELY KEEPING ANY MEANINGFUL CIRRUS TO THE WEST EXPECT
A STRONG WARM UP TOMORROW WITH TEMPS EASILY REACHING THE MID 70S
IN MANY LOCATIONS. MODELS SEEM TO REALLY HOLD ON TO
INVERSION...BUT WITH FULL SUN AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AM LEANING
TOWARDS A WARMER SOLUTION THAN CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS. A FEW LOW
80S READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT THIS POINT WITH SEVERAL
RECORDS IN JEOPARDY. A DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT WINDS IN
THE 10-20 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND WITH A DRIER
VERTICAL PROFILE EXPECTED...DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOTS OF VARIANCE WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE
SOLUTIONS...BUT OVERALL PATTERN IS ONE THAT WILL SUPPORT MIN RH
VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 15 PERCENT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AT CRITICAL VALUES AND CONSIDERED A FIRE
WX WATCH. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS RIGHT AT THRESHOLDS AND TENDACY TO
OVERFORECAST WIND SPEEDS IN THESE SITUATION DO NOT THINK
CONFIDENCE WARRANTS A WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

THURSDAY...CLOUDINESS INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

FRIDAY...LOTS OF CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY BEFORE DECREASING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE  FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE WARMING TEMPS
CHANGE ANYTHING OVER TO LIGHT RAIN. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS RAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE THEN SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES FALL TOWARD FREEZING. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

SATURDAY...DECREASING CLOUDINESS WITH FORECAST AREA IN BETWEEN
UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER OFF THE
CALIFORNIA/MEXICO COAST. LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS
REGARDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES SO NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED
FORECAST PROCEDURE. HIGHS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 40S
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 20S.

SUNDAY...LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN LONG RANGE MODELS WHICH MAKE FOR
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. ECMWF SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES OF -5C
TO -12C WHILE THE GFS SHOWING +11C TO +13C. NO CHANGES MADE TO
CURRENT FORECAST AND WILL GO WITH UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR HIGHS
AND AROUND 30 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DECREASING AND BECOMING WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL LLWS AROUND MCK
AS WINDS INCREASE TO THE 20-25KTS RANGE AT BASE OF INVERSION WHICH
WILL BE AROUND 100 FEET OF THE SURFACE. IF WINDS DECOUPLE...COULD
SEE A PERIOD WHERE LLWS THRESHOLDS BEING MET. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
AT THIS POINT THOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THIS ISSUANCE.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 27TH

GOODLAND....      73 IN 1970
MCCOOK......      69 IN 2003
BURLINGTON..      79 IN 1951
HILL CITY...      77 IN 2002
COLBY.......      77 IN 2002
TRIBUNE.....      74 IN 1982
YUMA........      74 IN 1970


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JRM
CLIMATE...JRM


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.