Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 251721
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1121 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT...HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WINDS MONDAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE
PACIFIC. THIS TRANSITIONS TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A BROAD
AND STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WAS NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...THE CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
GFS AND UKMET...ESPECIALLY WITH UPPER RIDGE POSITION/STRENGTH. THE
SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...CANADIAN AND NAM
WITH SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURES. THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING
A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LOOKS TO BE A SUNNY DAY. MODELS WERE NOT QUITE
WARM ENOUGH YESTERDAY WITH THE RECORD WARMTH. THE 2 METER
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE THE COOLEST WITH THE NWP THE WARMEST
AND MUCH WARMER THAN THEM. 850 MB CHANGE AND BIAS ADJUSTMENT
SUPPORTS HAVING THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS SIMILAR TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER. SO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE.

THE ONLY SITE THAT HAS A CHANCE OF REACHING A RECORD IS
BURLINGTON. THAT RECORD WAS 84 SET IN 1963.

FOR TONIGHT THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. OUR FORECAST AREA APPEARS TO BE ON
THE EDGE OF A LARGE FOG/STRATUS SHIELD. THE PATCHY FOG THAT THE
DAY SHIFT PUT IN LOOKS REASONABLE AND KEPT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED SINCE FOG FORMATION HAS A BAD HABIT OF BEING FURTHER
WEST THAN DEPICTED.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SOME FOG AND STRATUS IN THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING THEN SKIES SHOULD BECOME
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY. WINDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR THE DAY BUT
TEND TO BE LIGHT AND FROM AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. ONCE AGAIN SHOULD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN TO ALLOW A GOOD WARMUP. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WOULD INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WILL OCCUR
TODAY. SO KEPT THE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHAT IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA...MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF DURING THE NIGHT WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHAPING UP. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ALSO START
BECOMING FAVORABLE AS WELL. PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL PROBABLY END UP JUST BEING CLOUDS AND
MAYBE A SPRINKLE.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED JET STRUCTURE IN PLACE WITH THE
MAIN JET FURTHER SOUTH AND A SECONDARY JET NOT TOO FAR TO OUR
NORTH. SOUTHERN JET MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER EAST WITH A LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT NEAR/OVER THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE AREA. AT THE SAME
TIME A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE NORTHERN JET IS NEAR THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH LOOKS TO SET UP A COUPLED
JET THAT AFFECTS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY.

ABOVE MENTIONED JET SUPPORT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY THE END OF
THE DAY. AT THE SAME TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH FAVORABLE THETA LAPSE RATES REMAINS AROUND
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THAT BAROCLINIC ZONE REPRESENTED WELL BY
THE MODEL OUTPUT. SO AS DAY SHIFT ASSESSED YESTERDAY...RATHER
IMPRESSIVE LIFT.

HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 MB IS LACKING. EVEN
WITH THIS LACK OF MOISTURE...LIFT AND LAPSE RATES ARE GOOD ENOUGH
THAT BELIEVE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH. LIKE THE DAY SHIFTS DEPICTION OF THIS AND BASED ON THE
REASONING ABOVE AND COLLABORATION...WILL LEAVE THE POP AND WEATHER
FORECAST FOR THE DAY INTO EVENING ALONE.

PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. LOOKS
LIKE SPEEDS STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID
RAMP UP THE WINDS A BIT. NEW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE
MUCH COOLER...AS MUCH AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES...FORECAST THAT IS IN
THERE. JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

HOW FAST PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT DURING THE NIGHT WILL
BE A BIG PLAYER ON HOW COLD TEMPERATURES GET. NAM HOLDS ONTO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER THAT LOOKS OVERDONE. AIR MASS DRIES OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
06Z WITH THETA-E LAPSE RATES INDICATING A STABLE AIR MASS AS
SUBSIDENCE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. SO EXPECT LITTLE CLOUD
COVER WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT.

SO WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED MINS A LITTLE MORE. DID NOT GO AS COLD
AS I COULD HAVE DUE TO A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE CLOUD COVER AND
COLLABORATION WITH MY NEIGHBORS. WARMEST READINGS WILL BE IN MY
FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUD
COVER. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT THIS SEASON WITH MAYBE A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE. AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE FROST MENTION AND ADJUST THE AREA BASED ON
THE NEW LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA UNDER SOME NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME
WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGING WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. 850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT CURRENT
FORECAST OF MID 50S TO MID 60S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH IS A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW NORMAL. CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IS FROST POTENTIAL.
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
SEEMS REASONABLE...SOME CONCERN THAT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
MPH THAT DEVELOP AS SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO CURRENT VALUES...THEY MAY BE A LITTLE
"LESS COLD". WONT CHANGE THINGS UP TOO MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY...MID AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...EXITING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 13F FROM
TUESDAYS READINGS SUPPORTING AROUND 70/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST. FROST AGAIN
POSSIBLE FOR SOME. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS WOULD TYPICALLY SUPPORT WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
LOWERING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF LOW TO MID
60S...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. SFC RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH UPPER RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE AREA WHICH IMPACTS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST BOTH HIGH AND LOW. IF ONE WHERE TO BLEND THE
TWO 850MB TEMP FIELDS HIGHS WOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
WHICH ISNT TOO FAR OFF FROM CURRENT FORECAST (LOW 60S). NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW WIND GUSTS 18-20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGLD THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 12KT AT BOTH
KGLD/KMCK.

FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT (GENERALLY AFTER 08-09Z) ALONG AND NORTH OF
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST MOISTURE POOLING WILL BE NEAR
KMCK WHERE NAM/SREF/RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. INITIALLY MIXING MAY KEEP VIS HIGHER AND MAINLY LOW
STRATUS...HOWEVER AS LOW LEVELS STABILIZE AND MIXING DIMINISHES I
EXPECT VIS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNRISE. FOG MAY REACH AS FAR
WEST AS KGLD...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT GUIDANCE IS KEEPING VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KGLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. I INTRODUCED
LIFR GROUP BY 12Z AT KMCK BASED ON CURRENT CONFIDENCE.

GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE SUNDAY AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS WITH
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AT GLD. AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EAST WHICH COMBINED
WITH SOLAR HEATING SHOULD HELP DIMINISH FOG.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DDT
AVIATION...DR



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