Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 032043
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
143 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

AS OF 2 PM CST...1 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS ARE NORTH AT 15-20 MPH...GUSTING TO
30 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE STEADY IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S BEHIND OUR
LATEST COLD FRONT PASSAGE. AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH
IS LOCATED OVER MONTANA...HEADING SOUTHEAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS
DEVELOPED IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES OVER NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. ALOFT...PLUME OF RICH MOISTURE IS LOCATED FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM SOUTH DAKOTA...WYOMING
INTO NW COLORADO AND UTAH...HEADING EAST.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...MAIN STORY IS THE ANTICIPATED
SNOWFALL. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE SWINGS THROUGH IN
ADDITION TO ANOTHER PASSING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS.
FRONTOGENESIS FIELDS APPEAR MILDLY IMPRESSIVE. SEVERAL HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS...ALONG WITH MANY GLOBAL MODELS...INDICATE A BAND
OF SNOW INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...SPREADING
EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THEN...AS THE NEXT COULD FRONT
TRANSITIONS THROUGH...THE BAND IS FORCED SOUTH. A SECONDARY BAND
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BETWEEN THE TWO BANDS...A SNOW MINIMUM MAY OCCUR BUT
WHERE THIS MINIMUM AMOUNT OF SNOW FALLS IS THE TOUGH QUESTION TO
ANSWER. OVERALL...DID INCREASE POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE REASON FOR INCREASING SNOW AMOUNTS IS THAT VERY COLD AIR
OVERTAKES THE REGION. SOUNDING PROFILES AND FORECAST GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT A HIGHER SNOW:LIQUID RATIO WAS NECESSARY. EVEN THOUGH
FORECAST LIQUID AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY THE SAME...USED A NEAR 20:1
SNOW:LIQUID RATIO FOR THIS EVENING BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. THIS
LEADS TO 1-2 INCHES OF DRY FLUFFY SNOW OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WITH
2-3 INCHES OF DRY SNOW OVER EAST COLORADO. WITH THIS SNOW...LIGHT
WINDS WOULD INDICATE THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DRIFTING SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED. ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME SNOW-COVERED AND SLICK.

SNOW GRADUALLY SLIDES OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE OBSERVED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WARMEST TEMPERATURES FORECAST WHERE MOST SUNLIGHT IS
OBSERVED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
ELSEWHERE...FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOR FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT TUESDAY...THE TRI STATE REGION WILL SEE
AN INCREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL BE BROUGHT ABOUT AS
MODEL SET UP AMPLIFIED H5/H7 RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST ON
FRIDAY...THAT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES LATE INTO THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE WNW FLOW THAT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SETS THE TABLE FOR DOWNSLOPE
WINDS OFF THE ROCKIES. 850MB TEMPS THRU THIS TIMEFRAME WILL RANGE
FROM MAINLY +2C TO NEAR +5/6C FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY...THEN INCREASE TO
+7C TO NEAR +10C FOR NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD. THESE NUMBERS WILL TRANSLATE INTO DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 50S FRI/SAT/SUN...THEN INCREASING TO THE 55F TO 65F RANGE FOR
MON/TUES. THIS WILL BRING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOW/MID 20S TO
START...TO ALMOST L30S MONDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY CAVEAT OVER THE
WEEKEND THAT MAY HAMPER TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF RIDGE SHIFT. MODELS SHOWING
DRY CONDITIONS...BUT INCREASING CLOUDS COULD HAMPER SUNSHINE IN MANY
LOCALES...POTENTIALLY KEEPING HIGHS DOWN SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS ONGOING THIS MORNING. KMCK REPORTED
BRK055 AT 17Z. KGLD SHOULD REMAIN MVFR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
BUT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS FORECAST. POOR CONDITIONS RETURN AS
WINTER WEATHER SPREADS OVER SITES LATE THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON SNOW TIMING WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL/EXIT AT
KMCK. UNFORTUNATELY...GUIDANCE DISAGREEMENTS ARE MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN CIG/VIS FORECAST. OVERALL...WORST CONDITIONS
MORE LIKELY AT KGLD. BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIG/VIS TO IFR LEVELS
POSSIBLE WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. SNOW CLEARS OUT GRADUALLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS RELAX LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 10
KTS. WINDS VEER NORTH/NORTHWEST...INCREASING IN SPEED LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...RRH



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