Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 260540
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1140 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TO HAVE COME TO AN END SO A DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MID MORNING
SUNDAY.

FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO THREAT FOR FOG...DENSE AT TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY. 00Z NAM AND RUC BRINGING IN
RATHER HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS. BOUNDARY LAYER RH FROM BOTH MODELS BECOMES SATURATED
GENERALLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
DEWPOINTS...BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND WINDS RATHER LIGHT UNDER A
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY WILL PROMOTE THREAT FOR FOG. NAM/RUC/HRRR
VISIBILITY FORECASTS ALL SHOW SUBSTANTIAL REDUCTIONS AND DENSE
FOG IS POSSIBLE. NO HIGHLITES AT THIS TIME BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY
AND BRIEF INCOMING SHIFT TO THE POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

AS OF 3 PM CDT...2 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION WERE
PARTLY CLOUDY DUE TO A COUPLE DEVELOPING CUMULUS FIELDS.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S WITH COOLEST TEMPS OVER
NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES WHERE CLOUD COVER WAS PERSISTENT THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15
MPH. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EAST COLORADO.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS A NOTICEABLE MOISTURE GRADIENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH. A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS LOCATED
OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL. ALOFT...LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVING NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE TRI-STATE REGION.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ONCE AGAIN AS A FEW MINOR SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH. FORECAST GUIDANCE
SIGNALS HAVE BEEN QUITE INCONSISTENT WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION
PLACEMENT THIS EVENING WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE FEATURE STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO FIRE ON IS CURRENTLY IN EAST COLORADO. THEREFORE...MADE A
WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT WITH HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE STORMS
SLIDE EAST...EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OF A LOOSELY ORGANIZED COMPLEX
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS...2000-
4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE...LOW TO MID LAPSE RATES OF 8 C/KM AND DCAPE
NEAR 1500 J/KG INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 KTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF A
FAVORABLE SUPERCELLULAR ENVIRONMENT WITH A VERY LARGE HAIL
ENVIRONMENT. THERE MAY BE A FEW SUPERCELLS BUT WITH A LESS UNSTABLE
AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...FEEL THAT
SIGNIFICANT HAIL IS MUCH LESS LIKELY. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS TODAY ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION TO THE
SEVERE THREAT...A FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS ALSO LIKELY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER READINGS ARE 1.50" TO 2.00"...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. SLOW STORM MOVEMENTS...LESS THAN 15 KTS...AND POSSIBLE
TRAINING WILL ALSO HEIGHTEN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

FOR TOMORROW...ANTICIPATE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS AS A MORE
DISTINGUISHABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ARE ONE AGAIN POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER COLORADO DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR SUNDAY IS
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDEX READINGS. DECIDED TO PROCEED WITH A
HEAT ADVISORY AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
100S. ALSO...DO NOT ANTICIPATE DEWPOINTS TO DECREASE AS FAST AS
SUGGESTED BY A FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE. AS HAS BEEN THE RECENT
TREND...VERY HUMID CONDITIONS DUE TO HIGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD PRODUCE
HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE 100-107 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LIFT OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGIONS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
ALSO PULL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY
WITH A COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL BE
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S. THE LOW CENTER MOVES FROM THE
NW U.S. ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ALOFT EXPANDS ACROSS
THE U.S. FROM THE SW THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE PLAINS RETROGRADES AND
DEVELOPS INTO A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS STATES AT THE SURFACE WITH A LEE
TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY THE WEEKEND FOR A RETURN
OF WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING BACK UP INTO THE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

KGLD...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
(COMPARED TO EARLIER MODEL DATA) IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COMING
IN FROM THE EAST. AT PRESENT TIME JUST REACHED IFR CIGS. OUTSIDE
OF CURRENT TIME THOUGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR VLIFR CIGS FROM 11Z-
15Z PLUS OR MINUS AN HOUR. FROM 16Z-20Z JUST A FEW MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST UNDER 10KTS. FROM 21Z-03Z
WILL BE WATCHING AN ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE TERMINAL. LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.
WITH VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE IFR
VISIBILITIES IF THEY WERE TO GO OVER THE TERMINAL. AFTER 04Z
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE TERMINAL AREA.

KMCK...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM 09Z-15Z IFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF. FROM 16Z-00Z A FAIRLY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED
WHILE WE AWAIT POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING TOWARD THE
TERMINAL FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL REACH
THE TERMINAL IN THE 01Z-05Z TIMEFRAME WITH GUSTY WINDS AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. WITH
VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AVAILABLE VISIBILITIES COULD BE
LOWERED INTO IFR/VLIFR CATEGORY FOR A SHORT PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ004-016-029.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99



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