Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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040
FXUS63 KGLD 262341
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
541 PM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 529 PM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Main change was to reduce the areal coverage of the fog for
tonight. Models are placing the fog over the east overnight.
However a separate corridor of fog is likely late this evening,
starting along a Greeley to Sherman county line where rainfall
will have recently ended and where there will be a convergence in
the winds. The fog will follow the wind convergence east through
the rest of the night.

Expect the lowest visibilities east of Highway 83 where dew points
will be slightly higher and the saturated air will be deeper.
Currently have doubts about fog for the rest of the area, despite
the near 100 percent relative humidity, due to the temperature
and dew point both falling in the evening as drier air is
advected in from the west.

A thin layer of ice may develop on bridges and overpasses due to
temperatures falling to near freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Across the forecast area this afternoon...skies are mainly cloudy
with a few breaks showing up over portions of the CWA. The shortwave
bringing the veil of low cloud to the area is moving slowly across
extreme SW Kansas at this time...with a continued slow trudge
eastward for the rest of the afternoon into the evening hrs.
Temperatures across the area have upticked a few degrees since this
morning...with all locales in the 40s. With the CWA being on the
north edge of the passing system...showers still continue to
pinwheel thru the CWA. There have been a few lightning strikes with
these passing showers...so will be continuing a mention of until 03z
Monday.

Going into tonight...as the shortwave and associated precip band
shifts eastward away from the forecast area...do expect a slow
clearing trend into Monday morning. High pressure does begin to
shift east to replace the exiting system. As it does so...with
skies clearing out...winds will also become more light and
variable. With this and the abundant low level moisture in place
from the past few days...do expect fog to develop overnight into
Monday morning. Have trended wording to show patchy fog at
first...but as more of the region clear out after 06z
Monday...have brought in areas of fog. Overnight lows will drop
into the low 30s. Some locales could see near 30F overnight...and
with moisture on roadways...monitoring for slick roadways will
have to occur.

For Monday...looking for fog to dissipate/burn off by the mid-morning
hrs under full sunshine as surface ridge continues to build over the
area. Dry conditions expected for the remainder of the day. Current
expected conditions will have daytime highs top off in the mid
60s for the entire CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Monday night-Thursday night: Large Upper Level Low pressure is still
advertised to bring rain (possibly mixed with snow during
night/morning periods beginning Monday night through Thursday
morning. Guidance is still showing anomalously moist air mass
advecting towards our CWA, and now GFS is showing enough instability
that we may see isolated or even scattered thunderstorms embedded
within the periods/waves of precipitation rotating through the region
Tuesday night through Wednesday. ECMWF is not as favorable, but I
felt it was worth adding thunder wording to the forecast. GFS shows
enough CAPE coinciding with strong shear in our west to raise the
possibility of a few strong or even marginally severe thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon/evening. I also trended temps back down from blend
to account for impact of widespread precip Tuesday and Wednesday
(towards cooler end of statistical guidance).

Two other recent model trends worth mentioning for these periods:
Models are starting to favor the eastern and southern CWA for
heaviest precip potential, but this shouldn`t impact precip
potential. The other trend is for models to speed up the exit of
precip and arrival of shortwave ridge Thursday. Current guidance now
favors dry conditions returning by Thursday night (instead of
Friday). I made adjustments to account for these trends, but it still
appears everyone in our CWA is in line for at least measurable
precip Tuesday night-Wednesday and I kept PoPs in line with previous
forecast.

Friday night-Sunday: The next upper low is shown to arrive by Friday
(faster than previous guidance had indicated), and blend picked up
on this quicker trend. Models are showing a little better CAA on the
back side of this system and this could result in a better chance of
snow accumulations. Even then it would be on the slushy side and
models are varying on the evolution of the system and where the main
cold pool would develop. Due to the change in timing and uncertainty
on finer details the only change I made during these periods was to
CAP PoPs below "likely" category.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 529 PM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017

VFR to IFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Am expecting another
round of fog for KMCK tonight. However this fog shouldn`t be as
dense as last night due to the lower dew points moving in from the
west. KGLD will have a short duration of lower visibilities due to
a narrow corridor of fog forming in the late evening then shifting
east after 8z. Have less confidence of this fog developing, but
KTRB is already at 2 miles which is where the fog will start.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JTL



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