Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 161030
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
330 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST TONIGHT (AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH) A BRIEF DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE CIRRUS MOVES BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH STRATUS CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTH IN NEBRASKA. NAM
BOUNDARY LAYER RH SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THIS LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER TO THE EAST. DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THESE CLOUDS EXPAND TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.

HIGHS AROUND 30 IN SNOWPACK AREAS OF YUMA AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES
WITH LOW TO MID 30S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. TO THE
SOUTH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. IF THE STRATUS MOVES IN LIKE THE
LATEST NAM SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER. LOWS 10-15
IN SNOWPACK AREAS AND ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER WITH MID TEENS TO
AROUND 20 ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MODELS
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE/CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH. NAM ALSO
SHOWING STRATUS HOLDING TOUGH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS SOME
WEAK UPPER JET SUPPORT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND NORTHWEST WHERE BETTER 850-500
MOISTURE EXISTS. FOR THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD OUR DAYTIME DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ON
ITS HEELS...MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A WEST TO EAST MOVEMENT IN THE
850-500MB FLOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. MAY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF ICE PELLETS/SLEET ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST/SOUTH PARTS
OF THE AREA WHERE 900-800MB TEMPERATURES APPROACH -1C TO ZERO.

HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 SNOWPACK AREAS AND LOCATIONS ALONG
THE NE/KS BORDER. FURTHER SOUTH 30S AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOW 40S
(TRIBUNE TO LEOTI). LOWS 10-15 SNOWPACK AREAS WITH TEENS TO MID
20S ELSEWHERE.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING UPPER
PATTERN BUT GENERAL IDEA IS FOR PRECIPITATION (LIGHT SNOW) ASSOCIATED
WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHTS DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AROUND
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY BY 00Z FRIDAY AS WE
WATCH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT BUT NO PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE
LOW 30S SNOWPACK AREAS WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. LOWS MID
TEENS TO LOW 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN LATEST DATA AND
TRENDS...AM COMFORTABLE WITH REMOVING POPS FROM INITIAL PORTION
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CWA WILL REMAIN IN PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FLOW TRANSITIONING TO
NORTHWESTERLY AS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST. ECMWF RATHER
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO WESTERN CWA ON MONDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH GFS HAS SIMILAR PATTERN PRECIP DATA MUCH LOWER.
FOR THE TIME BEING GIVE OPERATIONAL DATA AND OVERALL PATTERN THINK
DRY FORECAST IS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. WILL SEE A SMALL WARM UP
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 40S AND SEASONABLE LOW TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

KMCK...STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE OR
SHORTLY AFTER THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. STRATUS DECK
JUST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
AROUND TAF VALID TIME AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE SHOULD BECOME LGT/VRB
BY 17Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 23Z OR SO BEFORE ESTABLISHING AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT AROUND 5KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KGLD...STRATUS DECK THAT IMPACTS KMCK TERMINAL EXPECTED TO REACH
KGLD AROUND 08Z OR SO AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MAY HAVE SOME BR/FG AS WELL. OTHERWISE JUST AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8KTS AT
TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME LGT/VRB AROUND 16Z THEN SOUTHEAST
AROUND 6-8KTS FROM 21Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...99



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