Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 250918

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
318 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Issued at 1043 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Made adjustments to PoP/Wx to account for current trends on
radar/satellite/lighting data. Custer of showers/thunderstorms
over Yuma county developed along elevated CAPE axis near elevated
baroclinic zone. Coverage is still uncertain across most of the
CWA, however based on current trends match HRRR/RAP and these
models show isolated to widely scattered activity through the
night. I kept slight chance mention most places, and chance at
and downstream of where current activity is.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 122 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...persistent partly sunny
skies remain over the area with a SSE surface wind and temps ranging
nicely...mainly in the 70s...despite cloud cover. A moisture axis
allowing the low/mid level sourcing from the eastern
Rockies and will persist thru the rest of the afternoon hrs...
resulting from surface ridging east and a building trough in the
southern Rockies.

A few isolated showers will move thru the northern zones this
afternoon as well with little impact to the area.

Going into tonight...looking for cloud cover to wane for central and
eastern zones...with mostly cloudy conditions for western zones due
to proximity to low/mid level moisture axis over Colorado.

For Sunday...similar scenario for the region as today. Surface ridge
to our north and east will shift further east thru the day allowing
inverted surface trough to push further into the Rockies. The
moisture axis between the two remains mostly over eastern Colorado
thru the day...with some bleed over into western Kansas thru the
day. 500/700 mb winds remain out of the WNW during this time...
aiding in moisture shift into the Plains region.

Models do hint at some weak instability over eastern Colorado...with
the possibility of shifting east. Some rw/trw possible but best
chances look for the western CWA to see precip...especially for
eastern Colorado.

For airmass influenced from the surface
ridge...clearing over the area for many locales tonight will afford
the region overnight lows ranging from the upper 40s into the lower
50s. Daytime highs Sunday will reach into the mid and upper 70s but
will depend on extent/thickness of clouds for the day.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 314 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Wednesday-Thursday: Both days will see zonal flow aloft with
embedded shortwaves moving across the area. Each afternoon and
evening, there will be a chance for thunderstorms, some which may
become strong or severe. For temps, both days look to be near
climatological normals.

Friday-Sunday: A cold front should push through the area some time
Thursday night into Friday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will
be possible again Friday afternoon through the overnight. Boundary
does not progress very far south of the CWA before becoming
stationary across southern and eastern portions of Kansas by Friday
evening. On Saturday, NW flow aloft and a series of shortwaves will
bring another chance of thunderstorms. As for now, biggest threat
area looks to be along and north of I-70. Model soundings for
Saturday suggest a chance for more strong to severe storms if
convection can initiate. Temperatures will gradually warm through
the period, ending up above normal by Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1123 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

VFR conditions should prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through most
of the TAF period. Some guidance is showing 2500ft AGL cigs
developing midday Sunday at KGLD, however the signal is
inconsistent lowering confidence. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms are likely going to move within the vicinity of KGLD
this morning, with better chances at KMCK Sunday afternoon. I
confined thunder mention at KGLD to first part of TAF period based
on current trends in radar/lighting data, but less confidence in
thunder at terminal beyond 09Z. A period of gusty winds is still
possible this afternoon at KGLD, otherwise prevailing winds should
remain below 12kt.




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