Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 241803
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1203 PM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

OVER THE NEXT 72-HOUR PERIOD...TODAY THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL
BE 3 WEATHER IMPACTS AFFECTING THE ENTIRE TRI STATE REGION.

FIRST...WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM TO LIFT OUT INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY.

THE SECOND IMPACT WILL BE THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARRIVING BY TONIGHT AND LASTING THRU MONDAY.

THE FINAL IMPACT FOR THE REGION WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF YET ANOTHER
UPPER LOW INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND IN COMBO
WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.

FOR TODAY...CWA CURRENTLY ON THE BACKSIDE EDGE OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THRU EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA BASED ON LATEST OBS. THE TREND GOING INTO THE LATER MORNING
HOURS IS FOR CLEARING TO ENSUE...AIDED BY DRY AIR WRAPPING IN AHEAD
OF UPPER LOW TO OUR NW. AS FOR REMAINING PRECIP...TAPERING OFF
COMPLETELY BY 12Z THIS MORNING...OR BY EXPECTED EXIT OF FRONT FROM
THE REGION. SOME OF THESE LOCALIZED SHOWERS STILL POPPING UP MAY
CARRY GUSTS NEAR 40-50 MPH WHICH IS SIMILAR TO PRECIP OVERNIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT THRU MONDAY...MID LEVEL/SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN BEHIND EXITING UPPER LOW TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT ON THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...NEXT UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES ARRIVE OVER THE REGION. MODEL TRACK OF
UPPER LOW ALMOST ON A DUE EAST VECTOR THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
NEGATIVELY TILTED SURFACE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE REGION IS GOING TO PUT
BUT FOCUS/ENHANCEMENT FOR PRECIP OVER NORTHERN ZONES. A SHORTWAVE
WORKING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AS IT INTERACTS WITH SURFACE SUPPORT. ENTIRE
COMPLEX WILL THUS BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE CWA GOING TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LOW COMES OFF THE ROCKIES.

FOR TEMPS...DAYTIME HIGHS IN HE 70S TODAY...SHIFTING TO MAINLY THE
60S MON/TUES...COOLEST N AND W. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE U30S
TO THE L40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
PATTERN... WEDNESDAY A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM... THAT WILL HAVE PASS
THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA ON TUESDAY... WILL BE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF REGION. THE LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO STILL BE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCER OVER THE NORTHEAST
SECTION OF OUR WARNING AREA.

THURSDAY LOOK FOR A BRIEF DAY OF CALM UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS
TO IMPACT THE TRI STATE AREA ON FRIDAY AND LAST OVER THE WEEKEND. AS
IT STANDS RIGHT NOW... THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS MUCH MORE STABLE THAN
THE ANTICIPATED PREVIOUS SYSTEM. THEREFORE... CURRENT SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD. FEW
TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS TURING FROM
THE WEST SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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