Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 242323
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
523 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016
Main concern will be extent of fog/dense fog after midnight into
tomorrow morning. High resolution guidance remaining consistent
in developing fog with areas of dense fog appearing more likely.
Since yesterday the area of fog continues to be a little further
west with most of the area east of the Colorado border having a
good chance. So I pulled the fog further west and having it last
through mid morning tomorrow.
Sref probabilities and other high resolution would support a dense
fog advisory having to be issued for later on tonight. 12z and 18z
Nam very consistent and the Nmm, which was capturing the wind
field the best, were showing dense fog east of the Colorado
border. Enough difference in the output that I was not certain
enough as to the area to issue an advisory for with the eastern
half having the best chance. Evening shift has been briefed and
will watch closely.
Overnight temperatures will be a function of how fast the stratus
moves in. Eastern areas will be the warmest. Stratus hangs on in
the east into the afternoon. Kept the blend high temperatures but
possible that it could end up being a little cooler in the east
than what is in there. Any precipitation looks to either be east
of the area or waits to form until early in the evening. So kept
the eastern locations dry for the afternoon hours.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016
An upper level ridge continues to be the dominating feature during
the long term period. This results in a mainly dry forecast, besides
a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms across the extreme
southeastern portion of the forecast area late Tuesday. Temperatures
look to remain above normal in the 70s and even the low
Tuesday night: A shortwave briefly breaks down the ridge, bringing
shower and thunderstorm chances to the High Plains Tuesday evening.
Better chances still appear to be east of the forecast area where
moisture increases, but the init still has a slight chance clipping
our southeastern CWA where there is limited instability.
Wednesday through Thursday night: After collaboration with
neighbors, winds were increased on Wednesday to account for higher
speeds behind a cold front. The ridge quickly rebuilds behind
Tuesday`s disturbance and the flow aloft becomes northwesterly. Dry
Friday through Monday: Another disturbance passes across the
northern Plains on Friday, sending a cold front south and shifting
the flow to westerly. However, there is little moisture in place, so
a dry frontal passage is currently anticipated. Should see somewhat
cooler air move into the High Plains in time for the weekend as the
upper ridge redevelops, with this pattern persisting into next week.
Near zero PoPs continue during this timeframe.
Temperatures: Highs gradually increase through Thursday, with
temperatures in the low 80s across the majority of the area, before
dropping into the upper 60s to low 70s on Saturday behind Friday`s
system. The upper ridge rebuilds, and temperatures in the mid/upper
70s return for Monday. Low temperatures range from the upper 30s to
low 50s during this period. Lows were decreased (particularly Friday
and Saturday nights) considering the dry air mass that will be in
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 516 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016
Main aviation concern will be chance for low clouds and fog
overnight and into Tuesday morning. Old front will lift out this
evening as a warm front, to be replaced by a surface trough near
the Colorado/Kansas border overnight. Moisture pooling along and
east of the trough and moisture advection on southerly winds will
create an environment favorable for low level saturation.
However... a couple of concerns. Mid and high level clouds are
forecast to increase which may inhibit radiational cooling.
Second, low level winds lack an upslope component. HRRR notably
keeps low clouds and fog mainly in Nebraska. Nonetheless, will
carry some visibility and ceiling restrictions around sunrise at
both KGLD and KMCK, improving by mid morning as the trough moves
out and westerly downslope winds develop.