Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 152015
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
215 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA. IT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN HAS BROUGHT VERY WEAK RIDGING
WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AS
THIS SHIFTS EAST...THE STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER FLOW AND APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE AN INCREASING INFLUENCE OF SURFACE FLOW AND
PRESSURE FIELDS. LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER LATER TONIGHT. OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN HAS BEEN THE
BEHAVIOR OF STRENGTHENING LEE SIDE TROUGH AND ITS INFLUENCE ON
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 25 KNOT GUSTS MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO
WIND FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BASED ON SURFACE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS. ANOTHER
CONCERN IS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THAT ARE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE LEVELS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT RH VALUES
SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE THRESHOLDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING RESULTING IN A SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AROUND OR JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.
FORCING FROM THE SECOND SHORTWAVE ACROSS OUR EASTERN COLORADO
COUNTIES MAY CAUSE RAIN TO BEGIN BY EARLY EVENING ON WEDNESDAY.
WET BULB PROFILE IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS RAISES CONCERN FOR RAIN TO
QUICKLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW BUT FOR NOW KEPT IT ALL RAIN
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A TRANSITION LIKELY OCCURRING AFTER
00Z WEDNESDAY DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY.  HOWEVER WINDS WILL STILL BE BREEZY
DUE TO 850MB WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.  FURTHER WEST THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL SPLIT OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

SATURDAY THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA.  AS IT DOES SO A SMALLER SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA.  AT THE SURFACE A SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
PUSHING A DRY LINE AHEAD OF IT.  WITH VERY LITTLE CIN TO HOLD
CONVECTION BACK...ANTICIPATE STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SMALLER SCALE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE DRY LINE.  DUE TO CAPE
VALUES OF 500J/KG OR SO...ANTICIPATE THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO
REMAIN MORE ISOLATED THAN THE RAIN SHOWERS.  STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN TAPER OFF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE 500MB
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH...ENDING PRECIP. BEHIND IT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS PEAKING IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO THE 10-15 KNOT
RANGE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE 08Z TO 11Z
PERIOD CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRB
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BRB






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