Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 170527
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1027 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE.  WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL STAY ABOVE WIND CHILL CRITERIA TONIGHT SO WILL NOT
NEED ANY HIGHLIGHT FOR THAT. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO TONIGHT. MORE COLD AIR PUSHES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID AND
UPPER 20S MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

BROAD NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FOR MOST OF WEEK...WILL GIVE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BY THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...THERE WILL BE A FEW MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES THAT WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
BASED ON LATEST ECMWF/GFS...TIMING AND INITIAL PLACEMENT OF THESE
SYSTEM COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL DETERMINE AMOUNT OF QPF
RECEIVED...IF ANY.

FOR NOW...THE TRI STATE REGION WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS THAT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO ALMOST THE LOW 50S AT THE END OF THE
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FROM THE LOW
TEENS EARLY IN WEEK THRU THE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER. LOWER
TEMPERATURES HERE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AREAL COVERAGE...OR LACK
OF...CLOUDS DUE TO THE FACT THAT SURFACE RIDGE WILL GIVE OPPORTUNITY
FOR CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. CWA WILL SEE SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS THRU THE DAY. GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THE
AREA WILL SEE A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. SUNDAY LOOKS BEST NOW EVEN THOUGH
BOTH SYSTEMS WILL RUN INTO DRY AIRMASS OFF THE ROCKIES...SO WILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP CARRYING RAIN SHOWERS IN WITH HIGHS
AROUND 50F.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KGLD. TRANSIENT 3000-5000 FT AGL
CLOUDS AND A FEW AREAS OF FLURRIES ARE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO SW NEBRASKA AND COULD IMPACT KMCK AT TIMES DURING THE
TAF PERIOD. THIS ISNT EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE BRIEF IF THEY DO OCCUR. CONFIDENCE WASNT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE -SN MENTION AT KMCK OR ADD MVFR CIG.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
THROUGH MIDDAY AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT
IN PLACE. DEEPER MIXING MAY ALLOW FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40KT IN
THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER BASED ON CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS KGLD AND
KMCK SHOULD SEE WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 30-40KT RANGE. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET MONDAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND WEAKENING OF SURFACE GRADIENT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR



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