Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 140830
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
230 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for an isolated severe thunderstorm in eastern
  portions of the area (mainly Graham/Gove/Norton counties)
  late this aft/eve (~4-10 pm CDT).

- Accumulating wet snow possible across portions of eastern
  Colorado during the day on Thursday, mainly at higher
  elevations in far western portions of Kit Carson/Cheyenne
  counties, where hazardous travel conditions associated with
  heavy wet snow and breezy (25-35 mph) north winds are
  possible. This includes portions of the I-70 corridor, mainly
  west of Stratton, CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 229 PM MDT Wed Mar 13 2024

True color satellite combined with latest analysis shows cloudy
skies over the area with low pressure situated to our south as an
upper level trough extends across the western half of the CONUS. As
of 2 PM MDT (3 PM CDT), temperatures across the area were ranging
from the low 50s northwest to middle 60s east. North-northeasterly
winds were around 15-20 mph sustained with gusts to around 20-30 mph.

Upper troughing digs south over the Intermountain West and flow
aloft continues generally out of the southwest through the remainder
of the day today. In the lower levels, low pressure centered just to
our south will progress eastward. Will be looking at active weather
beginning later this afternoon-evening as rain chances (~30-50%)
begin for east Colorado/southwest Nebraska, and ample instability
across far eastern portions of our area, generally along/east of Hwy
83, with MUCAPE values of ~600-1200 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates
of 8-8.5C/km, introduce potential for thunderstorms to initiate
after ~4 PM CDT, with some storms possibly becoming severe through
approx. 1030 PM CDT before the threat decreases. Relative best
potential for the severe risk remains across eastern Graham, Gove,
Norton counties which will carry primarily a large hail threat (up
to the size of golf balls) but also a low tornado threat. Tonight`s
lows are forecast to fall into the low 30s to middle 40s.

Across eastern Colorado, precipitation begins as rain, with snow
starting to mix in Thursday morning. Precipitation coverage expands
and chances increase to ~40-80% going into the day tomorrow as
guidance depicts precipitation wrapping around the surface low
moving off towards the east-northeast. Amounts now for heavy, wet
snow across Yuma, Kit Carson, and Cheyenne counties in Colorado
through early Friday range from around a quarter of an inch closer
to the CO/KS border up to about 1.5 inches west. Gusts to around 20-
30 mph may create some reductions to visibility as snow is falling.
High temperatures are forecast to range from middle 30s to lower 50s
followed by overnight lows in the middle 20s to middle 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 229 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Saturday, an upper trough over Southeastern Canada and the Great
Lakes region will extend into the Northern and Central Plains while
a cold front moves south across the region. Outside of winds
becoming northerly with gusts of ~20 mph after frontal passage, the
area is expected to see little impact from the front. Temperatures
are expected to warm up into the 50s to mid 60s Saturday afternoon
with overnight lows in the 20s to lower 30s.

Dry conditions are expected through the end of the period with the
trough axis extending from the northern trough over the area on
Sunday while the closed low remains over Arizona. The tight gradient
over the area from the northern trough will create breezy conditions
across the area Sunday morning through the early evening with gusts
to 30 mph out of the north to northwest. Tranquil conditions
continue on Monday and Tuesday as the area remains between the two
low pressure systems. Wednesday we finally see some progression of
the southern low as it becomes more of a cut-off low and begins
moving further over the Four Corners while a lee surface trough
develops off the Front Range. Mild temperatures are expected to
continue into early next week with highs in the 50s to around 60
degrees Sunday and  in the 60s across the area on Monday. Overnight
lows may fall into the 20s Sunday night and the 30s Monday night.
Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to warm up nicely with highs in
the 60s to lower 70s and overnight lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1046 PM MDT Wed Mar 13 2024

For KGLD... A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings and conditions are
forecast for the period. The period is expected to start with
VFR ceilings, but lower ceilings are beginning to move in from
the northwest. These lower ceilings are forecast to impact the
terminal, however they could remain just west of the terminal
with ceilings then more likely to be around 3500-4500ft.
Ceilings are then forecast to improve from 12Z to around 21Z
when rain showers may move through. If they do, they`ll lower
visibility for a few hours but keep ceilings down around 1500ft
through the remainder of the period.

For KMCK... Mainly VFR conditions are forecast for the period.
Compared to the prior forecast, the storms to the east appear to
have limited the chance for lower ceilings through the night.
Henceforth, the main chance for MVFR conditions are now around
18Z when rain showers could move over the terminal. However,
conditions are forecast to improve when the showers pass, likely
by 00Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...KAK


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