Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 021955
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
155 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE CWA W/ JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO
CLIMB INTO THE U50S TO L60S...WHICH ARE WELL OFF MORNING LOWS IN THE
U20S TO THE M30S. WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION IS ALLOWING FOR WNW
WINDS.

GOING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION WILL MOVE THRU THE
CWA OVERNIGHT...EXITING MOST OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. LOOKING FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD LIGHT PRECIP THAT WILL FORM AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ON THE WESTERN HALF OF
PRECIP SHIELD...AND MODEL TIMING FOR ARRIVAL INTO THE AREA WILL ONLY
GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT BEST FOR NORTHERN AREAS AT BEST AND TAPER
OFF TO A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...EXPECTING MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AS MAIN P-TYPE. FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR NE COLORADO
ZONES HOWEVER COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX OF -SW/-RW WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUM...AS TEMPS COULD DROP NEAR 34F UNTIL ENOUGH CLOUD COVER FROM
ARRIVING SYSTEM STOPS RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS THERE. OVERALL QPF
NUMBERS WILL STAY BELOW 0.10" W/ HIGHEST NUMBERS IN SW NEBRASKA.

FOR TUESDAY...CLEARING ENSUES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA. BUILDING H5 RIDGE WILL SET UP NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OVER THE AREA THRU THE DAY ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH THE
65-70F RANGE...OFF OF OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 34-41F...WARMEST TONIGHT
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES FROM HILL CITY TO OBERLIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION ON THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS. ON FRIDAY...THE
FLOW STRENGTHENS AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THE
RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ADVANCING ONTO THE WEST COAST.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE HIGH
PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON
SATURDAY AND PUSHES FURTHER TOWARDS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS AS THE LOW APPROACHES
THE AREA AND A DRYLINE DEVELOPS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THIS SLOW MOVING LOW AND SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED
AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS RIDGING IMPACTS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO COOL INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW ADVANCES. LOW TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL STAY IN
THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS THRU FORECAST PERIOD W/ MAINLY SCATTERED
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. FROM 08Z-1130Z TUESDAY...BKN050 WITH LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS W/ VISIBILITY DOWN TO 6SM. WINDS WNW AROUND 10KTS...WITH
GUSTS TO 20KTS BEFORE 03Z TUESDAY AND AFTER 1130Z TUESDAY.

FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS THRU FORECAST PERIOD W/ MAINLY SCATTERED
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. FROM 03Z-08Z TUESDAY...BKN035 WITH LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS W/ VISIBILITY DOWN TO 6SM. WINDS WNW AROUND 10KTS THRU 13Z
TUESDAY...THEN NORTH 10-20KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JN



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