Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 270827

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
227 AM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

As of 3 am CDT, 2 am MDT, skies across the Tri-State Region ranged
from clear to overcast. Patchy stratus has developed over northwest
Kansas and clouds also persist behind this evening`s departing
thunderstorm complex. Temperatures are in the low to upper 50s.
Light southeast winds are being observed. At the surface, low
pressure is centered over southeast Colorado while a high pressure
dominates from the Great Plains to the eastern United States. Aloft,
the shortwave trough that brought this evening`s convective activity
continues moving east across Central Kansas. Another weak shortwave
is evident over New Mexico and a weak upper level low is positioned
over the Four Corners region.

Immediate forecast concern this morning is the potential for dense
fog across a large majority of the forecast area. Many locations are
currently reporting dewpoint depressions of one or two degrees. In
addition, a mostly clear sky overhead is providing sufficient
radiational cooling. Recent rainfall received and light southeast
winds have also led to an ample supply of moisture. With these
favorable conditions in place, anticipating areas of fog to develop.
Fog may also be dense. Conditions will be monitored closely and a
dense fog advisory may eventually be needed.

Fog/stratus should burn off quickly this morning. For the rest of
the day, another disturbance is expected to move through. High-res
guidance indicates thunderstorms developing over east central
Colorado, spreading south across the region late this afternoon
through the evening hours. Storms look to remain generally along and
south of a Flagler, Colorado to Hill City, Kansas line. Atmospheric
instability is higher than yesterday with SBCape of 1500-2000 J/kg
and 850-500 mb Lapse Rates of 7-8 C/km forecast. Shear should be
much less, generally at or below 30 kts of 0-6 km Bulk Shear.
Therefore, a few strong/severe storms are possible with large hail
and damaging winds as the main threats. Storm motions less than 20
kts mean that flash flooding could become a threat, especially if
any storms are able to train along any remnant outflow boundaries.

On Sunday, another weak disturbance moves in ahead of the slowly
encroaching weak upper low presently over the Four Corners region.
Instability once again appears favorable for strong/severe storms
but wind shear is even weaker. Therefore, am unsure on what sort of
severe potential is realized but would not expect widespread severe
weather. Moisture advection from the south gives us a bump in PWATs.
Combined with slow storm motions, heavy rainfall and flash flooding
may be the primary concern.

On Monday, the weakening upper level low moves northeast across the
High Plains. Anticipate a partly sunny day with thunderstorms
developing shortly before peak daytime heating. Moisture should
increase once again so heavy downpours should be anticipated.
Convective coverage may be higher Monday with the disturbance
passing directly overhead.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1247 AM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Models show scattered thunderstorms across the area Tuesday and
Wednesday. The upper pattern features a large ridge across the
eastern conus and a trough in the Pacific northwest. Forcing
apparently tied to weak shortwave troughs in the zonal flow
aloft and daytime heating in a somewhat moist air mass with
dewpoints forecast in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The only
surface feature of note would be a lee trough across eastern
Colorado, with a cold front getting hung up in the northern
plains. Instability/shear profiles not particularly impressive
under the ridge, so not expecting much if any in the way of a
severe threat. The ridge will build even stronger for the latter
part of the week with a corresponding decrease in thunderstorm
chances and temperatures climbing back into the 90s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1116 PM MDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Conditions at MCK and GLD will start out VFR with patchy and
localized fog developing as skies remain mostly clear, winds
become light and variable, and temperature dewpoint spreads go to
nill by 09z. Between 09z-12z conditions will rapidly become IFR to
LIFR as low clouds and fog become more widespread. Fog and low
clouds are expected to diminish between 14Z-16Z as temperatures
increase for a rapid transition back to VFR by 16Z.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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