Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 271950

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
150 PM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017

The center of the high pressure area aloft retrogrades westward
from the southern high plains region to the desert southwest
through Saturday night. As the apex of the upper ridge axis also
shifts westward, several embedded short wave troughs in the
westerly flow moving across the northern tier of states and those
embedded in the circulation around the high moving out of the
extreme southwest U.S. move east of the rockies and across the
central high plains during the short term period.

Surface high pressure also slips from the northern plains into
the Great Lakes region with the southern extent of the high
pressure area extending into the southern high plains moving into
the southern plains. This will keep the moist southerly flow
mainly in place across the southern plains directed into the
southern and central high plains region. As a result, a few
lingering showers will be noted across the southern sections of
the forecast area today with dry conditions later today and
tonight as the surface high pressure moved into the area and high
pressure aloft is centered over the area. As the high aloft
retrogrades moves west of the area with the moist south to
southeasterly upslope flow becomes more focused on the front
range area, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
through the day on Friday and Friday night with additional storms
expected Saturday and Saturday night. With the high precipitable
moisture and upslope conditions, there is a possibility of heavy
rainfall associated with the thunderstorms mainly across the
western and southern sections of the forecast area on Friday and
Saturday. There is also a possibility of some storms becoming
severe during the late afternoon and evening on Friday as the more
significant short wave trough crests the upper ridge.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 150 PM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Friday the beginning of the period forecast area
looks pretty dry in the 850-500mb layer and the inherited slight
chance to low chance pops may be too high. There is some moisture
that moves into the northern 1/2 of the area and approaching the far
southern zones so cant completely rule out precip but in general may
be a bit optimistic. Slight chance to low chance pops continue
Saturday and again may be on the optimistic side given overall lack
of forcing and model qpf output. Things do get better Saturday night
and Sunday as a large plume of moisture that begins over the
Colorado front range moves east across the area around an upper
level high pressure area. Precipitable water values in the 1.5-1.7
inch range with 0-6km winds in the 5 to 15kt range. Locally heavy
rainfall possible. Low temperatures Friday night and Saturday night
in the low to mid 60s. High temperatures Saturday in the low to
upper 80s. For Sunday highs in the mid 70s to low 80s given the
expected cloud cover and higher chances of precipitation.

Sunday night-Monday night...generally speaking models showing upper
level ridging influencing the area with little (under 10 mph)
steering flow and precipitable water values of 1.4-1.6 inches. No
way of pinpointing precipitation probabilities and went with better
chances of thunder during climatological times of afternoon through
evening hours. Low temperatures both nights in the upper 50s to low
60s with highs Monday in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

Tuesday...will have to continue a slight chance to low chance of
showers/thunderstorms mainly across the western 2/3 or so of the
area per blended ecmwf/gfs 850-500mb moisture. Still good moisture
in the air with precip water around 1.5 inches or so. Steering winds
still light so some locally heavy rainfall possible. High
temperatures in the 80s with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Wednesday...showers and thunderstorms possible during the day before
drier air moves in from the north pushing better moisture and
precipitation chances south during the night. High temperatures
remain below normal with low to upper 80s. Low temperatures slightly
below normal with mid 50s to low 60s.

Thursday...dry weather currently expected with high temperatures
warming into the mid 80s to around 90 and lows in the upper 50s to
mid 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1109 AM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017

At KGLD...MVFR ceilings will persist another hour or two before
lifting as surface heating gets underway. VFR ceilings then
expected through the rest of the afternoon and tonight. However,
with light upslope winds and moist conditions expecting the
ceilings to lower again overnight and into Friday morning.

At KMCK...VFR expected through the TAF period. Will need to
monitor for possible lower ceilings overnight and Friday morning
with light upslope winds and moist conditions.




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