Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 011705
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1005 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

FOR THE LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO AREA TEMPS/
CLOUDS BASED ON LATEST OBS TREND IN PAST FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A CHILLY MORNING ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS AREA UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA IS
CARRYING REMAINING -SW AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SET UP TO THE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS GIVING THE
AREA SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS AIDING IN KEEPING TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

MAIN WX FEATURE GOING INTO TODAY AND CARRYING ON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WILL FOCUS AROUND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITTING
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE ON THE RETURN FLOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS SHOWING UP WELL ON WV SATELLITE LOOP. IT IS THIS
MOISTURE THAT WILL FEED INTO THE REGION GIVING MAINLY WESTERN
ZONES A SMALL CHANCE FOR -SW. 500/700MB RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
ROCKIES FROM THE SE DURING THE DAY...AIDING IN THE CUTOFF OF
PRECIP DURING THE DAY...SHUNTING IT WELL INTO THE ROCKIES.

MODELS DO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY A SURFACE SYSTEM
MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY GOING INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. POSITIONING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
COLORADO/UTAH BY 12Z MONDAY WILL HAVE INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE FEED FROM TROUGH/RIDGE.

OVERALL FOR THE NEXT 24-HOUR PERIOD...EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW WITH
FOCUS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACCUM EXPECTED.
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT/WAA COMBINED WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 20F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

GONG INTO MONDAY...STRONG SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR EAST...AND
INVERTED TROUGH/SURFACE LOW HAS SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
REGION. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL STEADY THRU
MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL SYSTEM OVER ROCKIES SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH A
NUDGE FROM UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE WEST
COASTLINE. THIS SHIFT THRU THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY OVER
ROCKIES TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP...TAPERING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARDS E/SE AREAS. WARM SOUTHERLY GRADIENT PERSISTS THRU
THE DAY SO SOME AREAS COULD SEE A BIT OF -RW MIXING IN AS HIGHS
WILL STRETCH NEAR THE 40F MARK.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT RIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN WX FEATURES
WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO WORK OFF THE ROCKIES/FRONT RANGE AND MOVE EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE OF AIR AND FINALLY ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH. MODEL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA
DOES DIFFER AND WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT POPS AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP
CWA WILL SEE...IN TANDEM WITH ARCTIC FROPA. CHANCE POPS IS WHAT
THE CWA WILL SEE AT THIS TIME WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
INCHES ACCUM. CHANCE FOR SYSTEM TO FALL APART WITH PASSAGE AS LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR MAY BE QUICKER TO ARRIVE INTO AREA...FOREGOING ANY
MOISTURE FEED WITH LOW PASSAGE. SOME DIFFERENCES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
AS SPEED OF FROPA IS KEY...BUT AREA SHOULD SEE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS AREA STAYS IN WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF UPCOMING FROPA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG COLD AIR TO WORK OVER AREA...DROPPING LOWS
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSITION EAST
WITH MAIN AXIS OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WELL EAST OF OUR CWA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME WEAK FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER TREND IN GFS/ECMWF HAS BEEN
TO SHIFT THIS SOUTH OF THE CWA EVEN QUICKER. I DECIDED TO KEEP
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WED MORNING HOURS...THOUGH
AT THIS POINT WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT MAINLY FLURRIES. FRIGID AIR
MASS RETURN HOWEVER AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
20S. CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WIND CHILL VALUES CLOSING IN
ON ADVISORY CRITERIA WED MORNING AND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING...THOUGH THEY HAVE MODERATED THESE VALUES SLIGHTLY.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...CONFLUENT FLOW BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS H5 RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PATTERN OVER OUR CWA ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT NEAR SEASONAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE SOME
IMPACTS FROM SNOW PACK MAINLY THURSDAY (IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
CWA )...HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF WAA I THINK THIS WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

KGLD...VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 20Z BEFORE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVES IN
PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE NORTH UNDER 10KTS. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE TERMINAL IN THE 00Z-09Z TIMEFRAME
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AFTER 10Z. BEST CHANCE
ALBEIT SMALL FOR SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS IS IN THE 06Z-09Z TIMEFRAME
SO FOR NOW HAVE VCSH. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB EARLY THIS EVENING
THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY NEAR 12KTS BY 10Z. DURING THE MORNING MONDAY
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER 25KTS BY 14Z. MODELS HINT AT
SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WHICH IF TRUE WOULD PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS. AM THINKING ITS MORE REFLECTIVE OF WHAT THE MODEL THINKS IS
SNOW COVER OVER THE AREA SO FOR NOW HAVE A SCT GROUP AROUND 1500`.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS
UNDER 10KTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 01Z BEFORE BECOMING
VRB05KTS FROM 02Z-08Z. AFTER 09Z SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 5KTS
EXPECTED THEN INCREASING AFTER 15Z WHERE GUSTS 20-25KTS EXPECTED.
SIMILAR TO KGLD WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES TERMINAL IN THE
08Z-14Z TIMEFRAME WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE LOW CHANCES HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/DR
AVIATION...99


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.