Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 280447
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1047 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

UPDATE TO ZONE FORECAST TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF SPRINKLES OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES...AND TO ADJUST TEMPS BASED ON LATEST HOURLIES.
CLOUD COVER FINALLY GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
AREA...WHICH IS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN MANY
LOCALES. HAVE OPTED NOT TO PUT ANY FURTHER AREAS IN FREEZE WARNING
OVERNIGHT OTHER THAN CURRENT COLORADO ZONES. TEMPS ARE DROPPING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW STILL OVER
AREA NW KANSAS ZONES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE HARD FREEZE NUMBERS. REST
OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH TUESDAY.  POPS FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY WILL BE NIL.

RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE FA TODAY HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT WITH METARS
REPORTING HIGH CLOUD BASES AND NO PRECIPITATION.  THE HRRR SHOWS A
BAND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER AN AREA IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES
THIS EVENING SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THERE.
THIS IS AN AREA WHERE THERE IS FRONTOGENESIS BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED.

THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH
CLEARING. MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE GIVES LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REST OF THE FA.  THERE IS A LEAST ONE GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS
TEMPERATURES AROUND 29 DEGREES IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WITH THE MET
SHOWING 21 DEGREES FOR LIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A HARD FREEZE IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COLORADO ZONES. PLAN TO UPGRADE THE FREEZE
WATCH TO A WARNING IN EASTERN COLORADO AND THEN GO WITH A FROST
ADVISORY ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. SEE UPDATED HIGHLIGHTS BELOW.

MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD WARM TO THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
MAIN CONCERNS AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS ON SATURDAY.

BEGINNING WITH TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN. FOR THIS NIGHT...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE FROST ONCE
AGAIN BUT LOCATIONS AROUND MCCOOK...OBERLIN AND NORTON MAY
APPROACH FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA...28 DEGREES OR LESS. WITH THE
CURRENT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES OUT...WILL NOT ISSUE ADDITIONAL
HAZARD HEADLINES BUT THEY MAY BE NEEDED FROM TONIGHTS SHIFT OR
TOMORROWS DAY SHIFT.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEAVING THE REGION PRECIPITATION-
FREE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...FORCING A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S BEFORE
COOLING OFF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO TRIBUNE
KANSAS...RESULTING IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST SO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS. THE
ONLY QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS HOW ACTIVE WILL WE BE? MODELS ARE
INDICATING A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND EJECTING OVER THE PLAINS BUT DISAGREE ON TIMING/MOVEMENT. WE ARE
GETTING INTO THE SEASON WHERE THESE TYPES OF TROUGHS NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER DEVELOPMENT. THE CANADIAN
MODEL DEVELOPS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS
INDICATES A SECOND...STRONGER LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ON
THE BACK SIDE. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS RAISE THE ALERT FLAG ON A
POTENTIAL SECOND SNOW OF THE YEAR. GLANCING AT THE TEMPERATURES...IT
APPEARS TOO WARM FOR SNOW AT THIS TIME. THE EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATES
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS WELL...BUT WELL TO THE NORTH...
BEGINNING IN COLORADO/WYOMING BEFORE MOVING NORTH TOWARDS CANADA.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE MONITORED BUT FORECAST
GUIDANCE VARIANCE IS TOO GREAT TO MAKE ANY DEFINITIVE PREDICTIONS ON
WHETHER A LARGER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE AREA.

ONE THING ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS SATURDAY. WITH A DEEP LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...A RESULTANT STRENGTHENING
OF THE WIND FIELD IS GUARANTEED. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WINDS AND SHOW POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
GUSTS...POSSIBLY 45-55 MPH. WIND FIELDS AT 1 KM AND 700 MB INDICATE
THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS EVEN STRONGER BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO PLACE MENTION OF THIS IN PRODUCTS YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES. SKC BEFORE 13Z-14Z TUESDAY AND
AFT 00Z WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE SCT100-150. WINDS WNW 5-10KTS
BECOMING WSW AROUND 5 KTS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN



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