Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 210518
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1118 PM MDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM MDT Sat Aug 20 2016

With clear skies...light winds and a moisture profile that
decreases sharply off the surface think prime radiative cooling
conditions in place. Have lowered temperatures several degrees and
may put a few records in Jeopardy as temperatures fall into the
upper 40s. While dewpoints have recovered in the east to the lower
and mid 50s...00z raobs and the observed Td curve today strongly
suggest Tds will fall with the temperature quite a while before
stabilizing.

Records which may fall tonight...
Hill City KS    50 degrees     set last set in 2009
McCook NE       48 degrees     set in 1950
Goodland KS     46 degrees     set in 1964
Colby KS        46 degrees     set in 1964

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Upper height rises on the order of 5 dam are forecast for the next
24 hours as a ridge builds over the central Rockies and adjacent
plains. At the surface...high pressure centered over the central
High Plains today will move east by tomorrow. Surface winds will
shift from light and variable today to southerly by Sunday and
become breezy. No precipitation is expected due to the lack of
forcing and generally dry air mass...although dew points will be
rising with the southerly winds. Temperatures will warm closer to
normal.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Sat Aug 20 2016

The weak westerly flow aloft in place over the Central High plains
region on Sunday night transitions to southwest flow on Monday and
Tuesday as a series of short wave troughs lift through the desert
southwest and move into the intermountain region from the west.
Temperatures across the forecast area warm on Monday and Tuesday
with southerly surface flow in place ahead of the deepening lee
trough associated with the upper short waves moving east of the
Rockies.  Highs in the 90s are anticipated.

A few thunderstorms are possible by late Tuesday in advance of a
cold front expected to move through the forecast area Tuesday night.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the area Tuesday night
and and Wednesday as the cold front moves through and the more
significant short wave trough aloft moves east of the Rockies and
across the Central High Plains.  Temperatures will cool on Wednesday
and Thursday with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

Wednesday night and Thursday dry conditions are expected as a cooler
area of high pressure moves into the region and the upper flow
transitions back to a westerly flow aloft and the upper trough moves
out of the area.

From Thursday night through the end of the week and into next
weekend there is a possibility of showers each day as a number of
short waves move east of the Rockies and across the Central High
Plains region.  With generally south winds in place at the
surface...high temperatures are expected to warm back up from the
upper 70s to the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1118 PM MDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Conditions...VFR with clear skies.

Precip/Wx....None expected.

Winds........06z Sunday-16z Sunday...Light and variable.
             16z Sunday-02z Monday...SSW 10-20kts.
             02z Monday-06z Monday...SSE 10-20kts.

Low level wind shear(LLWS)....02z Monday-06z Monday SW at 30kts.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN



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