Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 270823

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
223 AM MDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM MDT Fri May 26 2017

Latest upper air analysis shows a trough over the Northern Rockies.
Southeast of this trough smaller short wave troughs were beginning
to form over Colorado.  At the surface a dry line was extending
northwest from the southeast corner of Colorado toward Denver.

For the rest of the afternoon am expecting strong to severe storms
to move into East Central Colorado around 4 or 5 PM MT as the upper
level short wave trough approaches from the west.  As the trough
approaches, lift will increase along the dry line which will cause
some isolated to scattered storm development.  Due to the drier
environment and weaker lift south of the main short wave trough, do
not anticipate much storm coverage.  However these storms will be in
a much better environment to become severe.

CAPE sharply increases in a corridor east of the dry line until the
surface winds turn more to the southeast than south. Given the
proximity to the surface low, fairly low cloud bases, and 0-1km
shear on the low end for tornado development, cannot rule out the
possibility of a tornado.  This will mainly be a factor for Kit
Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado.  Further east into Kansas
the environment becomes more stable which should limit the potential
for tornadoes to form. Comparing conditions to SPC tornado stats
favor EF1 tornadoes.

Deep layer shear is even stronger than yesterday and CAPE is a bit
higher as well, so foresee a chance for hail up to baseball size
based on what happened yesterday.  Damaging winds will also be
likely with any storms that develop.

This evening storms will move east across the rest of the Tri-State
Area.  Am expecting a cluster of storms to remain north of Highway
24.  The main threat with these storms will be heavy rainfall due to
precipitable water values in the 90th percentile.  Don`t have quite
enough confidence to issue a watch at this time due to the storms
moving just fast enough to negate a flood threat.  Along and south
of Highway 24 elevated CAPE will form and may be strong enough for
severe storms to form.  If the elevated CAPE advertised is not
capped off, hail up to baseball size is possible.  The threat for
damaging winds should end by 9 or 10 PM local time.  This round of
storms should move east of the forecast area by midnight.

Another round of strong to severe storms will move in from the
northwest over the east half to third of the forecast area.  Am
anticipating this to be more of a line storms.  These storms will be
be along/behind a cold front moving through.  As with the storms
with the first round, if the elevated CAPE advertised is not capped
off hail up to baseball size is possible.  Due to the inversion in
place am not expecting straight-line winds with these storms.

Saturday the storms over the east part of the forecast area will
push east by mid morning.  During the latter part of the afternoon
the upper level trough axis swings over the west part of the
forecast area.  This will be enough for a few storms to develop, but
not expecting any severe weather to occur.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 222 AM MDT Sat May 27 2017

There are multiple opportunities for precipitation during the
extended period. Per current guidance, Tuesday is looking like the
least wide spread coverage but there are still chances for some rain
showers and isolated storms in the afternoon and evening. This is
due to a shortwave trough moving over the region.

Come Wednesday through Friday, chances for coverage of rain showers
and storms is greater. Yet, model guidance are differing in their
solutions as the week progresses. So knowing or pinpointing what
will exactly happen is difficult at this time. There is a strong
signal that the CWA will get precipitation but knowing if there will
be a severe threat is difficult to determine; especially with
instability not all that impressive. Will continue to monitor as next
week approaches.

Temperatures will be in the 70s during the period. Some locations
may reach the low 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1130 PM MDT Fri May 26 2017

At KGLD... thunderstorms will move through the terminal during the
overnight with brief reductions in visibility and ceilings. Some
gusty winds and small hail may accompany the storms. A cold front
will move through the terminal around 12z with increasing
northwest winds. Scattered showers and a period of lower ceilings
will likely follow the frontal passage through about mid

At KMCK...light to occasionally moderate rain will continue
through the overnight hours. Main impact will be reduced
visibility, but ceilings may also lower to MVFR. A cold front will
move through the terminal Saturday morning with surface winds
increasing from the northwest. Scattered showers and a period of
lower ceilings will likely follow the frontal passage through
about mid afternoon.




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