Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 120818
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
218 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON
HRRR/CONSHORT AND HPC EXCESSIVE PRECIP. DISCUSSION. MODELS
INDICATE ELEVATED CAPE CONTINUING TO DECLINE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. LIFT ALSO DECLINES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOOKING AT
THETA-E LAPSE RATES...THE 650-550MB LAYER OVER EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO IS UNSTABLE UNTIL 11Z.  LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE AN
INCREASE IN RAINFALL COVERAGE JUST NORTH OF THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET.

AM THINKING THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE
GRADUALLY DECLINING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE
RAINFALL RATES TO BE AS EXTREME AS EARLIER THIS EVENING DUE TO A
LACK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE 800 J/KG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

UPDATED FORECAST THIS EVENING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS TO
WEST OF AREA HAVE CAUSED SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD STORM
DEVELOPMENT. STORMS ARE GENERALLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 20 MPH. DUE TO THE SLOW STORM MOVEMENT HEAVY RAINFALL HAS
BEEN REPORTED...WITH RATES AS HIGH AS 0.6 INCHES IN 8 MINUTES.
ANTICIPATE STORM COVERAGE TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING WHERE THE BEST ELEVATED CAPE IS...THEN
DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY DECREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

TONIGHT...

HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH ONLY SCATTERED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA. WARMTH TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MAIN AFFECTED AREAS
WILL BE OVER WESTERN ZONES BASED ON TRACK OF EXPECTED STORMS...AS
LOW PRESSURE SITTING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST POP CHANCES WILL BE WEST...TAPERING TO NOTHING
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP...LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS COULD ENSUE WITH PW/S OVER AN INCH. BEST MODEL INSTABILITY
FROM LAPS CAPE/LI STILL FAVOR WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. LOOKING FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE IN THE 60S...AND WINDS 15-25 MPH W/
LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...

REMNANTS OF FRONT GOING INTO SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST
NORTH OF NORTHERN BORDER ZONES...WITH LIGHT RW/-TRW POSSIBLE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW COLD FRONT TO THEN SINK SE SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. BEST DYNAMICS SUPPORT MORE AREAL COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION AFTER 18Z TOWARDS 00Z SUNDAY. DAYTIME HEATING IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES WILL AID IN FURTHER DESTABILIZING AIR MASS
BEFORE FRONT TRAVERSES AREA...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED POP COVERAGE.
STAYING CLOSE TO MODEL GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WHICH WILL RANGE IN MID
80S TO LOWER 90S WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES SOUTH DUE TO LACK OF
FRONTAL CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES
TO BE THE PROGRESS OF THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ENSUING TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
TUESDAY.  THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION.  EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...WHICH IS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.  AT THE
SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER
BASIN BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE TRI STATE AREA.  THIS
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND FOR THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH AS GOOD THETA E
ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT AREA WIDE.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
LOOKING BETTER WITH MODEL AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT LACK OF INSTABILITY
ALOFT FROM CURRENT TRENDS IN MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD BE THE LAST
BIT OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN EAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER.  A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN COMBINATION
WITH ADVECTION OF DRY AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DRY.  THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO...BUT
CHANCES ARE SLIM AT THIS POINT IN TIME.  WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH WARM AIR RETURNING ALOFT AND AT
THE SURFACE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL
RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S...AND RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN EAST/NORTH OF KMCK OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER IF IT
DOES MOVE OVER THE SITE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF IFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS FOR KGLD NEAR SUNRISE. HOWEVER WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO GO WITH A CEILING IN EITHER OF THOSE CATEGORIES...ALTHOUGH THE
LOWER CEILINGS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR TO THE NORTH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE A MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR
RAINFALL.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL






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