Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 162037
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
237 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...WILL LET THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE
AT 21Z AS PLANNED. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED FROM THE PREVIOUS PEAK
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS ARE STILL HOLDING
AROUND 30-32 MPH..FEEL THESE WILL BEGIN DROPPING OFF SHORTLY. NO
VWP AVAILABLE TO MONITOR WINDS ALOFT DIRECTLY SINCE RADOME PANELS
ARE BEING REPLACED ON 88D THIS WEEK AND RADAR IS DOWN FOR THE
COUNT UNTIL SATURDAY. 12Z NAM SHOWS 850-700 WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...AND SEEING THIS ALSO IN SURFACE
TRENDS...SO WILL LET THE ADVISORY DROP AS ORIGINALLY PLANNED.

HRRR HINTS AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
KS-NE BORDER IN THE AREA OF ENHANCED CU. COLD TEMPS AT 700 MB AND
SURFACE HEATING HAVE GENERATED STEEP 850-500 LAPSE RATES. ADDED AN
AREA OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES ALONG THE KS-NE BORDER COUNTIES FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING ESE ACROSS UTAH INTO COLORADO AS SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AND A RAIN-SNOW MIX LATER TONIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA STARTING TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL FOR ONE MORE DAY ON THURSDAY GIVEN
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST...PROVIDING A COOLER E-SE
SURFACE FLOW MUCH OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SOME GOOD
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL LONG
TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY.  AT THE SURFACE A
DRY LINE WILL BE IN PLACE NEAR THE CO/KS LINE AHEAD OF A SURFACE
LOW.  DURING THE AFTERNOON A 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE DRY LINE...CAUSING STORMS TO DEVELOP.  THE STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY
EAST OF THE DRY LINE INCREASES AND LIFT STRENGTHENS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE 700MB TROUGH.  THE
STORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WOULD LIKE
TO HAVE GONE HIGHER WITH THE RAINFALL CHANCES FOR SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS STILL THREE DAYS
AWAY AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE 700MB TROUGH MAY CHANGE BEFORE
SATURDAY ARRIVES.

MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING
LONG WAVE TROUGH.  HOWEVER MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE.  AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO...SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.  BY THE EVENING THE TROUGH WILL FILL CAUSING STORMS
THAT DEVELOP TO END.  THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.

TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA.  THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN ISSUE
FOR TAFS WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL JET...TO BEGIN
THE TAF PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT WINDS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THEIR PEAK
GUSTS SINCE UPSTREAM SITES SHOW WINDS ALREADY REDUCED TO 35 KTS AT
K2V5 AND THE LOW-MID LEVEL JET HAS BEGUN TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST.

THEREFORE...FOR KGLD HAVE WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 39 KTS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. BY 21Z...GUSTS WILL REDUCE
TO AROUND 30 KTS AND BY 23Z...GUSTS WILL REDUCE TO 23 KTS. AROUND
SUNSET NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10
KTS WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. OVERNIGHT...WINDS AT KGLD WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

FOR KMCK...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 29 KTS GUSTING
UP TO 35 KTS TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. BY 21Z...GUSTS WILL REDUCE
TO AROUND 28 KTS AND BY 0Z...GUSTS WILL REDUCE TO 22 KTS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS WITH
GUSTS DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001-002-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...ALW






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