000
FXUS63 KGLD 030003
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
503 PM MST MON DEC 2 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST MON DEC 2 2013

AS OF 3 PM CST...2 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
RECENT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE WITH SOME SPOTS OVER EAST COLORADO REPORTING
HUMIDITIES AS LOW AS 18 PERCENT. WINDS WERE FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH OVER EAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
LOCATED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING MAJOR CHANGES TOMORROW
WAS LOCATED IN MONTANA ALONG THE BACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. A STRONG
ARCTIC HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST CANADA...THE SOURCE REGION
OF THE BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TRI-STATE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS. WINDS HAVE COME UP
AS ANTICIPATED IN SOME SPOTS BUT HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY LOW IN OTHERS
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND THUS LACK OF MIXING. DEWPOINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE LOW 20S WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 60S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THE SUN
ANGLE LOWERS. DO NOT THINK THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL MEET FOR THREE HOURS SO WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING. THIS
IS MAINLY DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF THE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THAT WE HAVE LIKELY REACHED OUR HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS SUBSIDE AND BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED
ABOVE. DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE WITH DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE AND
BEST LIFT STILL WELL NORTHWEST. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT DROP AS MUCH WITH CLOUD COVER
REDUCING NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

FOR TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND BRINGS IMMEDIATE CHANGES
ONCE IT PASSES THROUGH. MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE ARRIVAL UNTIL 18Z
FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND COMPLETELY CLEARS
THE REGION TO THE SOUTH SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z. DUE TO THE LATER
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND DAYTIME MIXING EXPECTED TO BRING DOWN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...HAVE INCREASED HIGH TEMPS FOR
TOMORROW. THINK THE MODELS FINALLY HAVE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
PEGGED AND AGREE ON THE LATER ARRIVAL WITH THE FRONT STILL
600-700 MILES AWAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED DUE TO PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT OF 8 TO 10 MB.
THE GFS SUGGESTS HIGHER PRESSURE RISES...UP TO 12 MB WITH THE 18Z
NAM NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS. AS OF RIGHT NOW...WINDS IN THE
FORECAST WOULD REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. THE
12Z NAM WAS NOT AS ADAMANT ABOUT THE WINDS AS THE GFS.
HOWEVER...THE 18Z NAM HAS INCREASED WINDS SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING
IN STRONG NORTH WINDS. WILL LET THE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT SHIFT
DETERMINE IF A WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR TOMORROW...MAINLY FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG NORTH
WINDS...RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT. HAVE USED THE NAM TEMPERATURE CURVE AS IT REFLECTED TEMPS
FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT THE BEST. MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES AND LIFT INCREASES LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE EVENING. HAVE SOME LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES MENTIONED MAINLY AFTER 2 PM MST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST MON DEC 2 2013

THE TRANSITION TO A COLDER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
BE IN FULL SWING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TRANSITIONS INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEP TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER ROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIFTS EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY LATE IN THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AS THE MUCH
COLD AIR FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO SQUEEZE MOISTURE OUT
OF THE AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ARE MORE LIKELY TO RECEIVE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE
YEAR ON THURSDAY WITH READINGS ACROSS THE REGION REACHING ONLY
INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE WEST AND THE UPPER
TEENS IN THE EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO A FEW DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION OF TWO TO THREE INCHES IS EXPECTED.

THE JET STREAM SAGS SOUTH WITH A SECOND WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO FOLLOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT A
CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT...WITH ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. EXPECT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.

A SECOND UPPER TROUGH SWINGS TROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP BY THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF BEING
SLOWER THAN THE GFS...AS THE UPPER FLOW GENERALLY TRANSITIONS BACK
TO A WESTERLY FLOW BY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HAVE KEPT A MENTION
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
WITH THIS NEXT TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 447 PM MST MON DEC 2 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY TOMORROW AT
GLD AND MCK. A PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IN THE 10-12
KFT AGL RANGE MAY OCCUR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT
GLD...WITH A TREND TOWARD HIGHER CEILINGS IN THE 20-25 KFT RANGE
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY
AND GENERALLY LIGHT THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY
AND LIGHT LATER TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING...STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE
SURFACE LOW WILL LEAD TO UNCERTAINTY IN WIND DIRECTION DURING THIS PERIOD.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW BRINGING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT IS UNCERTAIN BUT SHOULD BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF
HOURS OF WHAT THE TAF INDICATES. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND LATER TAF
ISSUANCES MAY INCLUDE BROKEN MVFR IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BRB