Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 292330
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
530 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 511 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO FORECAST TO EXTENDED THE TIMING FOR THE WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...AND TO ADJUST TEMPS FROM LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. LATEST OBS FROM ACROSS THE ADVISORY STILL SHOW
SUSTAINED WINDS 30 MPH OR HIGHER...AND WITH LOW STILL OFF TO THE
WEST...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND PRODUCT TO 03Z. TORNADO WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH WATCH FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI STATE REGION...

ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE U70S THRU THE M80S. LOWEST NUMBERS ARE
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASED CLD COVER HAS
OCCURRED. ALL THIS AS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND
STRONG SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST BRINGING IN WAA ON STRONG SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT.

AS WITH LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN MODEL RUNS...UPPER LOW THAT IS
POSITIONED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT EAST THIS
AFTERNOON THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP IS
SHOWING INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF RW/TRW OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...
AND IS THE PRELUDE TO AN ACTIVE WX SCENARIO FOR THE AREA. THIS BAND
OVER COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...PUTTING EASTERN COLORADO ZONES ON DECK FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WX.

STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN ZONES ARE FALLING IN LINE
WITH WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT AND WILL BE ADDRESSED CLOSER TO
00Z TUESDAY WHEN PRODUCT SET TO EXPIRE.

FOR TONIGHT...TRW/RW IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP ALONG THE WESTERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES THEN SHIFTING NE TOWARDS
NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL PARAMETERS AND PRE-STORM
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING IN SEVERE CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING THE CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND NW KANSAS. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL...AND WINDS 70 MPH BUT MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THEY WILL
APPEAR TO MOVE QUICKLY ALONG BOUNDARY...SOME TRAINING IS POSSIBLE
THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGH RAINFALL AMTS OF 1-2" IN A SHORT
TIME...OTHERWISE...CWA WILL SEE A GENERAL 0.25" TO ALMOST AN INCH OF
RAIN. AS PRECIP BEGINS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY...BRINGING IN MENTION OF FOG TO CARRY THRU 12Z TUESDAY.

GOING INTO TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE MORNING HRS. TRAILING BOUNDARY WILL BE SET UP OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WESTERN ZONES. EXPECTING CLRING
OF PRECIP CWA BY MIDDAY AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
EXITING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE 70S. DECREASING WINDS
WITH EXITING SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG THRU THE MID MORNING
HRS ALONG WITH SOME -RW/LOW CLDS DUE TO WRAP AROUND FLOW
CONDITIONS FROM LOW MOVING NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL BE CAPPED. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...LLJ IS ABSENT. THERE ARE
HINTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE FIELDS. HOWEVER...WITH
MODELS DRY HARD TO JUSTIFY MORE THAN SILENT 10 POPS FOR THE
SITUATION ESPECIALLY GIVEN ABSENCE OF LLJ.

BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG IT IN EASTERN
COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW SYSTEM. EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF UP TO 50KTS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF UP TO 2500
J/KG. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...IN
ADDITION TO A TORNADO RISK ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM HILL CITY TO RUSSELL SPRINGS WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE ENHANCED. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN AFTER 06Z
WITH SEVERE THREAT WANING.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST THURSDAY
MORNING WILL END AS NORTHWEST FLOW/SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE ANY
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES SO AFTER THURSDAY MORNING FORECAST WILL BE
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SITES THRU 02Z-03Z TUESDAY...THEN TRENDING
DOWN TO MVFR AS -TSRA MOVES THRU AREA BRINGING VSBY DOWN TO 4-5SM
AT TIMES THRU 06Z TUESDAY. MAINLY VFR THEREAFTER WITH VCSH/BKN060
TRENDING TO FEW-SCT030-040. SOME FOG FOR BOTH SITES MAY DEVELOP BY
10Z-11Z FOR A FEW HRS WITH SOME 6SM POSSIBLE...AND WILL BE WIND
DEPENDENT. WINDS SSE 15-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS THRU 06Z FOR
KGLD THEN SSW 5-15KTS. KMCK WILL SEE SHIFT TO SW WINDS 5-10KTS BY
11Z TUESDAY

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
     013-027-041.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN


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