Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 170543

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1143 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Issued at 613 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Have dropped the Red Flag Warning for Today since winds have gone
light to light and variable, temperatures are decreasing, and RH
values are on the rise.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Across the forecast area this afternoon...skies are a psunny/msunny
mix as a veil of high cloud lingers over the region. Temps are
ranging widely from the mid to upper 80s west to the upper 60s in
the far NE...due in part from lingering morning low clouds. These
locales will continue to rise as the afternoon will
not adjust current highs. Very dry conditions as well in the west
with Td`s in the teens to lower 20s. The result is many spots having
or will have RH readings 15 percent or lower into the single
numbers. Eastern zones still reside in slightly moister air.

Going into tonight...similar conditions from last night. Lingering
cloud cover will aid in keeping radiational cooling down...but
CWA will have overnight lows ranging from the upper 40s to the low
50s. Weak shortwave over eastern zones by monday morning will
bring low clouds and fog yet again.

For Monday...dry conditions and above normal temps once again are
expected for the entire CWA. Much of the day will have area ahead of
approaching frontal boundary and associated shortwave. WNW flow
will give the region downsloping conditions...aiding in the drying
process which will stretch further east than what is occurring
today. Daytime highs in the 80s to near 90F...combined with Td`s
in mid 20s to mid 30s will give the CWA low RH readings in the low
to mid teens. The stronger gradient coming with the front/trough
passage will put the entire CWA under critical Fire Wx conditions.
will be issuing a Red Flag Warning for the entire CWA 17z Monday-
01z Tuesday. Timing of the fropa passage will be key despite dry
conditions behind it. Should any fires erupt the wind shift
occurring with fropa will raise concern. Please refer to latest
Fire Wx product for further information.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 203 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

A potent upper low will push across the Canadian Plains Monday night
into Tuesday with high pressure situated off the Southern California
coast. A cold front will push across the CWA overnight with winds
shifting to the north northwest. A dry frontal passage is expected
as there is little to no available moisture both ahead of and behind
the front. There is a bit of concern about winds immediately behind
the front as any residual mixing may allow the wind to become quite
gusty. Weak post frontal CAA on Tuesday will lower our temperatures
back down near normal with highs climbing into the 60s to near 70
degrees. A second cold front will move through the region early
Wednesday morning with slightly better CAA which will bring
Wednesday`s highs into the upper 50s to lower 60s for both Wednesday
and Thursday. Lows will fall into the lower to middle 30s Wednesday
and Thursday night. The global models have consistently been backing
off with PoPs for Wednesday morning due to very dry air that will be
in place across much of the area; however, there are a few slgt chc
PoPs mainly in the northern most counties for Wednesday.

A warming trend will prevail Thursday through Saturday with
northwest flow aloft and a continued dry forecast. Another cold
front will push through the area on Sunday with little to no
available moisture once more.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1123 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

VFR conditions will prevail with mostly clear skies at GLD and
MCK through the TAF period. Light and variable winds overnight
will strengthen out of the west between 14-16Z and turn northwest
and become gusty between 17-19Z in the wake of a cold front
currently making its way across the central high plains region.


KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM
     CDT/ Monday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Monday for COZ252>254.

NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM
     CDT/ Monday for NEZ079>081.



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