Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 030857
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
157 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES.  THE STRONG CIRCULATION IS
EVIDENT BASED ON VIS/IR SATELLITE DATA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.  RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SMALL BAND OF
SNOWFALL CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR.  OTHERWISE...RADAR REFLECTIVITIES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING
DOWNWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

IN THE NEAR TERM UP TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE WINTER STORM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND NEW SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON COULD REACH UP TO AN
INCH...BUT LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW COULD OCCUR ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER
UP TO 2 INCHES.  RAP MODEL THETA LAPSE RATES/NEGATIVE EPV VALUES
INDICATE AN AREA OF MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENESIS PRESENT ALONG THE SAME
AXIS AS THE CURRENT RADAR TREND WITH THE SNOW BAND POSITIONED NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.  A SNOW BAND MOVING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80 ALONG HIGHWAY 283 COULD ALSO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW UP TO AN
INCH FOR NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LOW
CENTER MOVES EAST ENOUGH TO END THE SNOW THREAT.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IS THE
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT.  STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OF 16-18 MB HAS BROUGHT STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
NOT HAVE THIS GRADIENT LESSENING FOR THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
MST (1 AM CST) TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...DESPITE THERE BEING NO
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  UNLESS
ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY...TRAVEL IS NOT ADVISED.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD STABILIZE AFTER MIDNIGHT MST (1 AM
CST) TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END THE BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN BETWEEN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE MIDDLE TEENS.  COLD TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH WIND GUSTS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 10 ABOVE
TO 10 BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

NEW MODEL DATA SHOWING THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN AS YESTERDAY. ON
SATURDAY AREA WILL BE UNDER TEMPORARY SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF
ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER MODELS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN YESTERDAY. PLUS A RATHER STRONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND UPPER JET SUPPORT ARE IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN ADEQUATE SUPPLY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS. MORE MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF THAN YESTERDAY. AFTER CONFERRING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED WOULD NOT ADD ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AND KEEP THE DRY CONDITIONS THE INIT
GAVE ME. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT WILL BE FLURRIES AND CAN AFFORD
TO WAIT A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE INSERTING ANYTHING. REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DRY.

AS ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG
AND CLOSED OFF SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS SETUP AND LATEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTS
A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AND LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

THAT COMBINED WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFIELD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
AND EXTENDING WELL TO THE NORTH...SUPPORTS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES
FROM WARMING UP MUCH. AFTER COLLABORATION...DECIDED TO LOWER THE
TEMPERATURES GIVEN TO ME BY THE CRH INIT. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF COLD
AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 900 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 12KTS BY
08Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED. FROM 17Z-21Z A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA BRINGING SOME GUSTS NEAR 20KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG
WITH SOME CLOUDS FLIRTING WITH MVFR CATEGORY. FROM 22Z THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS FALL BELOW 11KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND CLOUDS DISSIPATE LEAVING SKC CONDITIONS.

KMCK...VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 11Z AS
WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST GUSTING AROUND 22KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH GUSTS
DISSIPATING BY 09Z. FROM 12Z-00Z MODELS HINTING AT IFR CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WINDS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10KTS. HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE IFR CIGS AND
CANT RULE OUT VLIFR CIGS IF THE NAM MODEL IS CORRECT. HRRR HINTS
AT THEM BUT KEEP THEM JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL. AFTER 01Z JUST A
FEW MID CLOUDS EARLY THEN SKC WITH WINDS FROM THE WEST AROUND
7KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99


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