Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 220444
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1044 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPDATE ISSUED TO TREND IN SHOWERS SLOWER THAN FROM PREVIOUS
UPDATE. LATEST RADAR TREND STILL SHOWING LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP
STILL A COUPLE HOURS OFF FROM ENTERING INTO THE CWA FROM THE SW.
REST OF FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN UP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS
CURRENTLY LIFTING ENE ACROSS NEW MEXICO. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW A DECENT BAND OF RAIN AND SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. TIMING SHOULD BE STARTING LATE EVENING ACROSS
COLORADO AND WESTERN KS COUNTIES...ULTIMATELY REACHING THE NORTON
AND MCCOOK AREAS LATER TONIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK. EXPECTING A
GENERAL .25 TO .50 IN OF MOISTURE WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY THUNDER OVERNIGHT WITH INSTABILITY DEFINITELY
LACKING. PRECIP WILL END FROM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY...PRETTY
MUCH OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A BAND OF INSTABILITY SETTING UP ALONG THE CO-KS BORDER BY
MID AFTERNOON. A COMBINATION OF WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK
IMPULSES ALOFT WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME OUT RIGHT NOW WILL HELP
TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BEST POTENTIAL IN TERMS OF
LOCATION LOOKS TO BE IN NE COLORADO...FAR NW KANSAS INTO SW
NEBRASKA...PERHAPS NORTHWEST OF A BURLINGTON COLORADO TO MCCOOK
NEBRASKA LINE OR THEREABOUTS. ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON IN NE COLORADO IN BEST
INSTABILITY AXIS. SURFACE CAPE DIMINISHES QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET BUT
MEAGER ELEVATED CAPE WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG KS-NE BORDER AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND
DEVELOPMENT AND IMPACTS IF TROUGH OVER FOUR CORNERS AREA AND HOW
IT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE PLAINS. SREF DATA FROM 09Z CYCLES
INDICATES 2 DISTINCT CAMPS IN HANDLING TROUGH...WITH MEMBERS
FAIRLY EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN A MORE PROGRESSIVE/NORTHERLY SOLUTION
AND A SLOWER MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. GIVEN THIS SPLIT...VERY
DIFFICULT TO PICK ONE OVER THE OTHER SO THINK TENDING TO A
CONSENSUS/MEAN OF LARGE SCALE PATTERN APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME.
THAT BEING SAID...GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SATURDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS WELL AS POSSIBILITY OF OF WIDESPREAD FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPING. THINK STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL MAINTAIN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON WHILE INCREASING MIXING RATIOS IN THE LOWEST 0.5 KM
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ROTATES AROUND BASE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH. DETAILS VARY GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND RESULTING SFC REFLECTION WITH GENERAL IDEA OF
STRONG DRYLINE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST CO AND LIFTING
NORTH...AND A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT DEVELOPING NEAR I-70. GIVEN THE
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE AS
STORMS DEVELOP. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN AREA
OF ADVANCE OF DRYLINE WHICH COULD GREATLY DIMINISH
TEMPS/INSTABILITY IS ALSO FAIRLY HIGH SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN A
SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE PRECIP
CHANCES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE WEST CLOSER TO
H5 LOW CENTER AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE EAST.

IN THE EXTENDED (SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS QUICKLY MOVE
OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGH OVER WEST
COAST AND WHILE SOME ACTIVE WX IS POSSIBLE...HARD TO GET ANY HIGH
CONFIDENCE DETAILS AT THIS POINT. FOR THE TIME BEING...THINK MEAN
FORECAST THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN LARGE SCALE
PATTERN INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

FOR BOTH TAF SITES...SLOW ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION ITO THE REGION
WILL HAVE VFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER TO A MVFR/IFR/LIFR
MIX BY 09Z FRIDAY. RAIN AND FOG WILL OVERSPREAD REGION AND REMAIN
THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING VISIBILITY TO RANGE FROM
3-6SM WITH PERIOD OF 1-2SM BETWEEN 09Z-16Z. WINDS OVERALL WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEAST FOR FORECAST PERIOD...BUT 10KTS CURRENTLY WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SPEEDS OF 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS NEARING
30KTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LLWS HAS BEEN ADDED THRU 10Z FRIDAY UP
TO 35KTS AT 2KFT UNTIL SURFACE FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...JN


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