Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 190355
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
855 PM MST Sun Feb 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 605 PM MST Sun Feb 18 2018

Red Flag Warning has expired. Will now be addressing short term
grids through 12z Monday as arctic air and possibility of freezing
precipitation moves into the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM MST Sun Feb 18 2018

The main short term concerns are the critical fire weather
conditions continuing into early this evening along with the minor
possibility of light freezing drizzle working into the northern
sections after midnight.

With very dry conditions and gusty winds remaining across the
region, will likely keep the Red Flag warning intact as it is
through the 01Z expiration time for continuity sake if nothing
else. If winds die off quicker than expected prior to 01Z, may end
up canceling it early.

A shallow cold airmass will begin moving into the region overnight
tonight with the dome of colder air nearing saturation due to
higher dewpoints and the colder temperatures. Expect low clouds to
also move into the region. But with a very dry airmass above the
colder and nearly saturated layer, there is a possibility of
light freezing drizzle. Models haven`t really been picking up on
any QPF associated with this, but seems to be consistently hinting
at the possibility for a brief time between roughly 06Z-12Z. Have
kept an area of freezing drizzle in across the north overnight as
a result with a slight modification to the favored area of
occurrence.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 208 PM MST Sun Feb 18 2018

Monday night and Tuesday: Sustained Arctic air advects into the
region overnight Monday and into Tuesday. There will be enough
moisture in place to allow for light snow to form along a theta-e
boundary that will set up on the east side of a developing H7 low.
This will be situated in central Colorado and will dive from
northwest to southeast along the western extent of the Arctic air.
Current guidance is suggesting light accumulations of 1 to 2 inches;
however, this scenario is suggesting a banded type setup thus we
will likely see a relatively narrow swath of slightly higher
amounts. The latest HiRes models are setting this up from southwest
to northeast from central Cheyenne County, Kansas through central
Hitchcock County, Nebraska but it does have the potential to shift
with only slight changes to the storm track. In either case, we will
likely remain below advisory criteria. This system will move through
the area relatively quickly, with snowfall occurring mainly between
06Z and 12Z Tuesday morning. Low temperatures Monday night will fall
well into the single digits for the northwest portions of the CWA
with lower to middle teens in the southern and southeastern portions
of the region. Highs on Tuesday will only climb into the upper teens
to middle 20s from northwest to southeast.

Wednesday and Thursday: Dry weather prevails on Wednesday as Arctic
air begins it`s retreat to the east and northeast. Highs will remain
well below average with highs only reaching the upper 20s to lower
30s. Lows Wednesday night will fall into the single digits to lower
teens once more. A trough begins to influence the region on Thursday
with another chance of precipitation as we head into Thursday
evening and into the overnight hours. Currently, guidance begins the
precipitation as rain or rain/snow mix. There is still some
uncertainty regarding the speed of system, making timing the
transition to snow a bit difficult. Light showers will transition,
possibly to freezing rain or sleet briefly before changing to snow.
Accumulations are uncertain at this time but the potential looks to
be relatively light.

Friday through Sunday: A gradual return to near normal temperatures
is in the works toward the end of next week and into the weekend. A
quick moving shortwave will bring another chance of snow on Friday
night and early Saturday morning. Dry weather will prevail beginning
Saturday afternoon, lasting into Sunday. Look for highs both days
in the 40s to near 50 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 855 PM MST Sun Feb 18 2018

KGLD, mvfr cigs expected from taf issuance through about 16z with
winds gusting 20-25kts. After 17z vfr conditions return through
02z with winds from the northeast initially, veering to the east
and slowly increasing in speed with gusts near 25kts possible.
After 03z cigs fall back to mvfr/ifr category in post upslope flow
and winds from the east near 12kts.

KMCK, mvfr cigs expected from taf issuance through about 21z.
Winds initially from the northeast gusting near 30kts but should
subside before sunrise. From 22z-00z cigs bounce in between
vfr/mvfr with winds remaining from the east-northeast near 15kts.
After 01z cigs fall to mvfr category again with winds from the
northeast near 12-13kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...99



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