Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 230435
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1035 PM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Upper level shortwave ridging is in place across the Northern
Plains, with a trough transitioning south and east. At the surface
high pressure in in place across our CWA.

This afternoon: Cold pool is lingering over our CWA and has led to
CU field development. There is limited instability beyond this
shallow layer, so showers are unlikely. I could rule out a few
sprinkles, but even this appears less likely to the shallow
instability and dry sub cloud lower levels (Td depressions around
20F). This CU filed is already starting to transition southeast
and should completely clear as low level lapse rates decrease
around sunset.

Tonight: Clear skies, lower 30 Tds, surface high pressure, and
relatively calm winds this evening and early Sunday morning should
support temps rapidly falling into the the 30s. Winds begin to
increase after 3 AM with lee trough rebuilding, and this may lead
to an upward trend in temperatures due to mixing before sunrise.
Locations in the northwest may see mixing sooner which could hold
temps in the mid to upper 30s. It was close enough that I felt
comfortable with frost advisory for our entire CWA. If a freeze
were to occur I am thinking south of I-70 closer to the high
center where cooler air mass may linger and calm winds may hold. I
was not confident enough for issuance of freeze warning.

Sunday: Lee trough deepening will lead to windy conditions and
good WAA across our CWA. Temperatures should be above normal in
the 70s (possibly near 80F in our north), while southerly winds
gust to 40 mph. RH will be high enough that fire weather should
not be an issue, due to Tds increasing in southerly flow east of
the surface trough.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017

A progressive pattern will be in place across the CONUS this
period. Embedded shortwave troughs will bring occasional chances
for showers, with a few pockets of weak instability resulting in
mentions of isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures will be above
normal Sunday and much above normal Monday, then will be below
normal the remainder of the period. For the late week system,
cooling temperatures aloft will drop wet bulb zero heights low
enough for a mention of snow in northeast Colorado and generally
west of Highway 25 in northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska, but
little if any accumulation is expected at this time. There is the
potential for the sum total of the upcoming week`s precipitation
to be 1 to 2 inches, with highest amounts generally north of
Interstate 70, which would probably close the book on drought
development any time soon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1010 PM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions through the period. KGLD will
see a southwest wind under 10kts through 12z except a brief period
from 08z-11z where 12kt winds expected. After 13z winds quickly
increase with gusts over 35kts expected during the late morning
through late afternoon hours. After sunset winds remain gusty but
gusts are only expected around 25kts. For KMCK a light southwest
wind at taf issuance will continue through 14z then increase and
gust near 30kts from 17z or so through sunset. After sunset
sustained winds of 13-15kts expected from the south.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ Sunday for KSZ001>004-
     013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT Sunday for COZ090>092.

NE...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ Sunday for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99



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