Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 282023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
123 PM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

Cold front will continue through the forecast area overnight and
should clear it by 12z. Upper forcing arrives this afternoon with
a shortwave trough/open wave. Forecast soundings start out very
dry below 5kft, but moisten up with time as precipitation
develops. Although ice will be introduced into the column, there
will be a shallow surface based warm layer which will result in
partial or total melting. Wet bulb zero heights suggest all snow
except perhaps in the far southeast, while higher resolution
precipitation type guidance from HRRR and SREF plumes suggest a
rain/snow mix as far west as Colorado. Either way, surface
temperatures will be above freezing and ground temperatures even
warmer, so snow will likely be melting on contact. As a result,
any accumulating snow this afternoon or tonight will be very
light, less than an inch, primarily in northeast Colorado. Snow
will wind down overnight as the upper system moves east.

The central CONUS will be under northwest flow Wednesday and
Thursday. A couple of very weak shortwaves move through northern
and central Nebraska, but further south will be more under the
influence of the western ridge so no precipitation expected.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 122 PM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

Very dry conditions will persist through the entire extended period,
raising concerns for elevated or critical fire weather conditions
each day (dependent on winds).

Wednesday Night-Thursday: NW flow will still be in place and similar
air mass (to Wed) will linger over our CWA, so seasonal temps should
continue. Translating to 40s/near 50 for highs and teens to lower
20s for lows. Winds should be lighter as upper level jet transitions
east, so RFW is not a consideration at this time (though lower RH
could be possible in our south).

Friday-Tuesday: Flow shifts to the west Friday then southwest this
weekend, with an approaching upper level trough on Sunday night.
This trough tracks north with main axis of forcing, and a deep dry
air mass in place will keep conditions dry despite increasing lift.
Temperatures will be above normal through these periods, with
Saturday and Sunday particularly warm. Based on similar warm ups and
bias corrections we may see highs approach 80F for some locations. A
cold front moves through the region by Monday, but the temps will
still be above 60F, and unfortunately this only acts to increase
winds an likely result in critical fire weather conditions due to the
projected low RH values Monday afternoon.

Large scale ridging (ECMWF) or westerly flow (GFS) builds over the
western US by Tuesday, and we would see an upward trend in temps
again. Despite differences in extended guidance dry and above normal
are the answer. I trended temps up from standard blend Sat, Sun, and
Tue due to the cool bias of 2m guidance and blend performance during
pas warm ups.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1038 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the period with the main
issue being winds through this afternoon and then the daytime
tomorrow. For Kgld...North winds will increase through the
afternoon with speeds to near 19 knots with gusts to near 27
knots. This winds decrease early this evening. The west/west
northwest winds stay near 15 knots through the night. However
those winds increase during the overnight hours to 18 knots with
gusts to near 26 knots. Llws also develops during this time.
Around 13z those winds increase to near 20 knots with gusts to
near 32 knots.

For Kmck...The winds will shift to the northwest and increase to
near 18 knots with gusts to near 26 knots. These decrease by 03z.
West winds near 12 knots will continue through the night with Llws
from 06z to 09z. Around 14z those winds will increase to near 23
knots with gusts to near 33 knots.




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