Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 160909
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
309 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Benign weather through early next week.

- Unsettled weather pattern returns mid-week, mainly Wednesday
  into Thursday. Light precipitation (rain) possible. Hazardous
  weather presently not anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 240 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Synoptic Overview: A pronounced upper level ridge /omega block/
anchored to the Pacific Coast.. and a cut-off low, trapped
within, over the Desert Southwest.. will persist.

Benign weather, characterized by dry conditions and near average
temperatures, will prevail through the weekend.. in association
with an increasingly subsident /confluent flow aloft/ synoptic
regime over the Central Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 248 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Dry conditions are anticipated through the middle of next week
as the Tri-State area sits between two area of low pressure
aloft. The next chances for precipitation are currently expected
to be in the latter half of the week.

Tranquil conditions continue on Monday and Tuesday as the area
remains between the two low pressure systems. The upper closed
low over Arizona will begin to nudge east-northeast over
Southern Kansas and the Southern Plains. On Wednesday there is
some disagreement on how quickly the low moves across New Mexico
into the Panhandle region. The GFS currently lags the low
behind through Wednesday night. As the low moves further over
the Southern Plains late Wednesday into Thursday, a Colorado low
is expected to develop over SE Colorado and SW Kansas. Moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico will advect over the Tri-State area
helping increase our rain chances over the Kansas counties along
and east of Highway 83 overnight Wednesday. Currently there is
low confidence (less than 20%) for rain overnight Wednesday into
early Thursday morning. After a break in precipitation chances
during the day on Thursday, we could see a return of light rain
over the northwest corner of the area Thursday evening as the
surface low moves northeast and the wrap around moisture moves
over the Tri-State area. Guidance suggests the passage of a cold
front Thursday night, bringing the opportunity for more light
rain and possibly light snow with PoPs up to 35% Friday
afternoon through the overnight hours.

Mild above-normal temperatures are expected to continue through
much of next week with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s
across the area on Monday. Overnight lows should be in the 30s
Monday night. Tuesday through Thursday are expected to warm up
nicely with highs in the 60s to lower 70s and overnight lows in
the 30s to around 40 degrees. Friday is forecast to be in the
low to mid 60s for highs with overnight lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

VFR conditions and mostly clear skies will rule through the TAF
period at both terminals. Light (5-10 knot) westerly winds will
shift to the north and increase to 12-17 knots late this morning
(~16Z) and persist through the afternoon. Winds will weaken at
or around sunset.. becoming light and variable this evening.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...Vincent


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