Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 182319
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
519 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WAS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN COLORADO EXTENDING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD MOVED SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS TODAY...LAYING ROUGHLY ALONG HWY 24 EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  ACROSS THE COLORADO LINE A SURFACE LOW WAS PRESENT NEAR
LA JUNTA.  SOME WEAK INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
ALLOWED MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THIS
MORNING.  ALONG THE FRONT OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO SCATTERED
STORMS HAVE STATED TO DEVELOP. FURTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTHWEST
KANSAS A SURFACE CONVERGENCE AREA HAS ALLOWED CUMULUS CLOUDS TO
BEGIN TO DEVELOP.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD...STALLING BETWEEN HWY 40 AND 96 BY EARLY EVENING.
ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS ALONG THE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AREA.  STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 10 MPH TO THE EAST SO
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY. ADDITIONALLY 0-6KM SHEAR OF
25-30KTS AND 1000-1500J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH NO CINH
SOUTH OF HWY 24 WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS...PRIMARILY OVER KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES AND
WESTERN SHERMAN/WALLACE COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AIR ABOVE
500MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON SO DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HAIL UP TO
1 INCH IN DIAMETER FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS.

THIS EVENING STORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AS MID
LEVEL LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DECLINES SOME.  MEANWHILE
STORMS WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE AREA AND OVER
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  700-500MB MIXING RATIOS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  WITH FAIRLY STEEP MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...PARCELS LIFTED FROM THE 675MB LAYER WILL HAVE
ANYWHERE FROM 500-1100 J/KG OF CAPE AS THE BETTER MOISTURE MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST.  STORM MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE WEST AT 10-
15 MPH AND 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE 25-30KTS WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR IN SIZE
TO DEVELOP.  TOWARD MIDNIGHT STORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AS A COMPACT 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.  THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND 700-500MB MIXING
RATIOS WILL ALSO DECLINE.  ONE MODEL IS SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF
HIGHER MIXING RATIOS AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH ELEVATED
CAPE UP TO 1100J/KG.  AM SOMEWHAT DOUBTFUL OF THIS OCCURRING GIVEN
HOW NARROW THIS CORRIDOR OF MUCH HIGHER ELEVATED CAPE IS SINCE THE
MAJORITY OF THE MIXING RATIO PLUME IS DRYING OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AS A RESULT HAVE CHANCES DECLINING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WEAKENS AND THE MIXING
RATIOS DECLINE.

TUESDAY THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO.  DURING THE AFTERNOON A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF 0-1KM MIXED LAYER CINH LESS UNDER 50J/KG DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD.  SINCE ISOLATED
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS WELL AS OVER THE FAR WEST NEAR THE SURFACE LOW.  AT THIS
TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA.  DO NOT ANTICIPATE A FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
REMAINING ABOVE 15 PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

H5 RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC
US. THIS RESULTS IN A SHIFT IN FLOW ALOFT TO THE SW AND EVENTUALLY
WILL SUPPORT COOLING TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SCALE
TROUGH BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AT
LEAST INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S...WITH CONSENSUS FAVORING
HIGHS IN 80S SUNDAY/MONDAY. I COULD SEE TEMPS ACTUALLY BEING COOLER
THAN THIS BASED ON THE CURRENT PRECIP SIGNAL AND POSITION OF UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INITIALLY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING WEAK FORCING TO
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY MOISTURE
PROFILES SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE...AND STRONG CAP WILL LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION TO AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS. THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION WILL MAINLY BE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH ALONG KS/CO BORDER
AND WEAK CONVERGENT ZONE ALONG KS/NE BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY-MONDAY...PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES PRIMARILY IN AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS. WE COULD SEE A SHIFT
TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND PACIFIC MOISTURE AND GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO
ROTATE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. CONSENSUS CURRENTLY
KEEPS SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS IN PLACE BY THE LATER
PERIODS...HOWEVER IF STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL CONTINUES I COULD SEE
INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT DRAPED
ALONG INTERSTATE 70. SOME OF THESE MAY IMPACT KGLD WITH BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MOVING OUT OF
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE COULD EVENTUALLY REACH KMCK TONIGHT AS
WELL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA AFTER 06Z WITH NO FURTHER
AVIATION CONCERNS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...024



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