Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 301936
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
136 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO AND COULD BE IN LINE TO IMPACT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF KMCK SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALON THE CO/KS STATE LINE.

WITH FRONT STILL OVER PAR OF THE CWA I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
WHERE ML CAPE 500-1500 J/KG IS LINGERING. SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED
ANY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SO FAR...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY THREAT
REMAINING EAST AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY NAM TO PASS OVER CWA TONIGHT
COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER THIS SHOULDNT AMOUNT TO MUCH CONSIDERING LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS...SO
DECIDED TO JUST KEEP MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE 06-12Z
PERIOD. NAM/RAP/SREF HINTING AT STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN
CWA WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR FRONTAL ZONE. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND COULD LIMIT
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.

LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTING FRONT FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. CURRENTLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO BE AS FORCING
INCREASES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I
LIMITED 30-40 POPS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWEST. I KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
DUE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST WEAK FORCING BEHIND FRONTAL
ZONE...THOUGH I WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL MAIN
PUSH COMES IN LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH...AS A RESULT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH AS WELL. AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY IN OUR AREA WILL ALMOST ALL BE ELEVATED WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF WEAK SBCAPE IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...POSSIBLY LINGERING IN EASTERN
AREAS INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY MID DAY THURSDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LARGE RIDGE WHICH WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KGLD. LESS CONFIDENCE
IN CIG/VIS FORECAST AT KMCK WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING IFR OR
LESS JUST WEST OF FRONTAL ZONE IN SOUTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA. GUIDANCE
IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT ON THIS FRONT POSITION AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD HELP LIMIT ANY LOWER CIGS OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP VFR AT BOTH TAF SITES AT THIS UPDATE. THERE
COULD ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA 06-12Z PERIOD AT KMCK
THOUGH COVERAGE IS A QUESTION SO LEFT OUT. OTHER THAN BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS OUT OF THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AT KMCK WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN 10KT OR LESS AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR


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