Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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781
FXUS63 KGLD 112129
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
229 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WERE FICKLE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SNOW PACK STILL IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS
WELL AS LINGERING CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING. AS THE CLOUDS
STARTED CLEARING OUT...AS SEEN ON THE VISIBLE...TEMPERATURES
STARTED TO GO UP ACROSS THE REGION. MCCOOK NEBRASKA WAS
TRICKY...THIS WAS DUE TO THE FREEZING FOG THEY HAD THIS MORNING
THAT LINGERED OVER THE AREA UNTIL AROUND 18Z TO 19Z. AFTER THE FOG
LIFTED THE TEMPERATURES INCREASED OVER THAT AREA. FOR
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AROUND
06Z STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE CWA AS A FRONTAL PASSAGE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHEAST.

FRIDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ALONG WITH HI
RES AND NAM12 MODELS BRINGING CHANCES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PATCHY FREEZING FOG
WAS FORECASTED FOR THOSE AREAS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRATUS DECK BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE CWA DUE TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
WILL IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. MCCOOK NEBRASKA
CURRENTLY IS FORECASTED TO HAVE A HIGH AT 36 DEGREES F BUT THIS
COULD POSSIBLY BE LOWER. KIT CARSON COLORADO WILL HAVE SOME OF THE
HIGHER TEMPERATURES IN THE CWA IN THE MID 50S DUE TO THE STRATUS
NOT REACHING THAT AREA UNTIL THE EVENING. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
SKIES AREA EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AROUND OR
BELOW 10 MPH FROM THE NORTHEAST SHIFTING TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...LONG FETCH OF UPSLOPE EASTERLY THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FEED MOISTURE INTO THE LOW THE LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MOISTURE POOLING OVER OUR
CWA BEHIND FRONTAL ZONE. AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE LOW LEVELS
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT
POSSIBLE DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON SATURATED LAYER DEPTH IT
APPEARS FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE THE PREFERRED PRECIP MODE EVEN IN
THE EAST WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE (AROUND 2KFT).
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT QPF SIGNAL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
PATTERN AND I OPTED TO KEEP 20 POPS IN PLACE BUT FAVORED DRIZZLE
RATHER THAN RAIN MENTION. IN ANY CASE IT IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY
THAT AT LEAST PART OF OUR CWA WILL SEE A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. NAM/SREF ARE STILL SHOWING A DENSE FOG
SIGNAL MAINLY NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE IN THE WEST WERE BL WINDS MAY
NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG. I KEPT FOG MENTION AS PATCH FOR NOW AS
STRONGER BL WINDS STILL WOULD SUPPORT MORE OF A STRATUS/DRIZZLE
EVENT. WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF
THE REGION (MORE LIKELY EAST)...BUT I OPTED TO WAIT DURING THIS
UPDATE CYCLE AND ALLOW SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO FINE TUNE.

ANY FOG AND DRIZZLE SHOULD END BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS LEE TROUGH
BEGINS TO REDEVELOP AND LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. HIGHS
SATURDAY CONTINUE TO BE COMPLICATED BY THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF LEE
TROUGH REDEVELOPMENT IN THE WEST AND SLOW EROSION OF STRATUS IN THE
EAST. WE COULD END UP WITH QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEPENDING
ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...NW FLOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE DURING THESE
PERIODS AND A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING PRECIP
CHANCES BACK TO OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE GENERALLY
CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE SUBSTANTIALLY DRY BELOW 700MB LOWERING CONFIDENCE
IN MEASURABLE PRECIP. CONSENSUS QPF STILL SUPPORTS AT LEAST SOME
PRECIP POTENTIAL SO I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS SHOULDNT AMOUNT TO MUCH IF PRECIPITATION DOES
MATERIALIZE.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LARGE SCALE
RIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US DURING THESE PERIODS. RESULT WILL
BE A VERY DRY/STABLE AIR MASS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT THURSDAY
COULD BE IN THE 70S ACROSS OUR CWA. BASED ON STANDARD BIASES ECMWF
FORECAST TEMPS ALOFT COULD SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 80F THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL FRIDAY MORNING
AT 11Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE
FRIDAY MORNING...THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF BUT IS STILL
WORTH MENTIONING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLT
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...CLT



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