Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 050509
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1109 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

QUIET PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
DURING FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH NOW RIDGING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MAIN WEATHER CHANGE AS A RESULT WILL BE A STRENGTHENING
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TOMORROW WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS BY MIDDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM
ANOTHER 3-4 C.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...THE TRI STATE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG RIDGING RIGHT UP
THRU THE MID LEVELS. BY THE TIME THE UPCOMING WEEKEND COMES
ABOUT...MODELS WILL SHIFT/BREAK DOWN UPPER RIDGE FROM MORE SO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DOWN TO MORE OF A FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
IS BROUGHT ABOUT BY A STRONG CUTOFF UPPER H5 LOW THAT SETS UP AND
REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
SHIFTING EASTWARD THRU THE PLAINS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

AS A RESULT...FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH FOR BOTH DAYTIME HIGHS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SETUP OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES...THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALSO SEE A MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONT WHICH LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW SET UP ALONG THE
KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. NORTHERN ZONES MAY SEE SOME RW/TRW DEVELOP
W/ AREAL COVERAGE LOW BASED ON PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...FRONT REMAINS ALONG NORTHERN ZONES TO
START OFF SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK INTO THE AREA...INCREASING THE CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS. SPC STILL
CONTINUES MENTION THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
DURING THIS TIME...FURTHER SHIFTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP EASTWARD AS
LOW MOVES ALONG BOUNDARY...SHIFTING THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH IT.

THE FIRST HALF WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CLOUD COVER AND RW/TRW CHANCES
FROM THE EXITING UPPER LOW AS IT TRAVERSE THE PLAINS REGION. WEAK
RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM WILL HELP TO LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES...BU WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AS WEAK SHORTWAVE POTENTIALLY
COULD WORK IN BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM BEFORE RIDGING OCCURS.

OVERALL FOR TEMPS...FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH MID TO UPPER 80S
ON TAP FOR HIGHS...THEN TRANSITION DOWN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPS AROUND
70F AS NEXT WEEK ROLLS AROUND WITH EXITING SYSTEM DRAGGING DOWN
COOLER AIR ON NORTHERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMEST THURSDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH MAINLY LOW TO MID 50S...WITH MAINLY 40S FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY IN THE
TAF PERIOD THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER
(AROUND 30KT)...HOWEVER WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A DECREASING TREND
FROM THIS I DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE A PREVAILING GROUP. GUSTY
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS (15-20KT GUSTS) WILL DEVELOP AT KGLD AFTER
SUNRISE WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER NW KANSAS.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE AT KMCK TO 10-13KT AT KMCK...HOWEVER
THEY WILL AVOID THE GUSTS OBSERVED AT KGLD. AS TENDS TO BE THE
CASE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEAT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR


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