Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 300930
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
330 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS SFC
RIDGE AXIS NOSES INTO THE AREA. FOR TONIGHT SFC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES
EAST AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO PROVIDING FOR
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. SOME WEAK ELEVATED BUT CAPPED INSTABILITY
MOVES TOWARD THE CO/KS BORDER DURING THE NIGHT ALONG THE LOW LEVEL
JET. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO DECREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND A MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
SKY SHOULD BE SEEN BY LATE IN THE DAY. FOR TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE
CLEAR THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE STRATUS POSSIBLY MOVES BACK INTO PARTS
OF THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 40S MCCOOK TO HILL CITY (CLOSER TO SFC HIGH...LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS) AND NEAR FLAGLER WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE A FEW READINGS IN THE LOW 40S IN PARTS OF
NORTON COUNTY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST COAST. INSTABILITY
AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OR SO OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT A FEW HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO VERY LATE IN THE DAY AS SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WINDS MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS CURRENTLY
EXPECTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST AS
WEATHER DISTURBANCE FEEDS INTO NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET FURTHER
ENHANCING FORCING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS AND INHIBITION IS
WEAK...ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND FROM MCCOOK TO GOVE AND
POINTS EAST WITH LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT
READINGS ABOUT 5F WARMER. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
EXCEPT AROUND 50 IN THE FLAGLER AREA.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA DURING
THE DAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODEST
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AND BY LATE AFTERNOON ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING IDEAS AS TO JUST
HOW MUCH WARMER IT GETS COMPARED TO SUNDAYS 850MB TEMPERATURES. GFS
THE BOLDEST WITH THE WARMUP WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF LESS ENTHUSIASTIC.
SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS ARENT THE BEST WIND TO ALLOW WARMING LIKE THE
GFS WOULD SUGGEST SO FOR NOW WENT FOR A BLEND OF 850MB TEMPERATURES
FROM THE PAST 5 DAYS ALONG WITH BETTER PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED
GRIDS TO COME UP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS SHOW A MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
GRADUALLY DEEPENING/AMPLIFYING TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
POSITION OF THIS TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THE WEEK. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THIS FLOW AND CROSS OUR REGION. AT THE
SAME TIME... ON THE SURFACE... ANTICIPATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
BROUGHT IN BY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

THIS PATTERN WILL HELP MAINTAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S
AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

KGLD...IFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z
BEFORE SLIGHTLY RISING TO MVFR CATEGORY FROM 15Z-19Z. AFTER 19Z OR
20Z VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10KTS
VEERING TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS. FOR TONIGHT WINDS SLOWLY VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH UNDER 10KTS...EXCEPTION BEING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
WHEN SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 12KTS EXPECTED.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND FORECAST
SIMILAR TO KGLD AS SFC RIDGE AXIS COVERS THE TERMINAL DURING THE
DAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING EAST AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. THIS WILL
ALLOW NORTH WINDS UNDER 10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE TO SLOWLY VEER TO
THE EAST AT THE END OF THE DAY THEN SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...SPEEDS
UNDER 10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...99


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.