Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 072127

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
227 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

Main issues will be high winds and fire weather conditions for
Friday. For tonight...Left front quadrant will be affecting the
northwest portion of the area at the beginning of the period and
will be just east of the area by the end of the night. Mid level
lift is not as strong with not the best theta-e lapse rates. This
has been what the model output has been showing the last few days.
Model output has pulled back on the measurable precipitation. As
a result have pulled all measurable mention of precipitation and
inserted scattered flurries for the night.

For Friday...For discussion on fire weather, refer to that section
below. By later in the morning/early in the afternoon, the area
is in the right front quadrant of the above mentioned jet.
Shortwave will have moved through by late in the morning with
subsidence and clearing kicking in by mid to late morning with the
strongest downward motion over eastern Colorado. Also 700 mb
winds increase into the 45 to 55 knot range with the strongest
winds in eastern Colorado and a little further east into extreme
southwest Nebraska and far northwest Kansas. The best low level
lapse rates reside along and especially west of the Colorado

Best parameters to mix down 60 mph plus winds reside over eastern
Colorado with the Bufkit soundings for the Nam and Gfs mixing
down these winds for the last two days. So confidence was high
enough to hoist a high wind warning for eastern Colorado. However,
there is some uncertainty as to how far these parameters will
move east of the Colorado border. The certainty was not there is
issue a warning but felt good enough about issuing a watch for the
next row of counties to the east of the Colorado border.

Area continues to see experience dry conditions. With the winds that
occurred on Monday, those areas that had the strongest winds did
experience some minor reductions in visibility from blowing dust.
So for the high wind warning and watch area, I inserted patchy
blowing dust from late in the morning through the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1250 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

The forecast area will remain in between upper level high pressure
over the west with low pressure over the east/northeast. Toward the
end of the period the influence of the upper low will be felt and
the upper high pushed west off the west coast. For our area this
means the warmest day will be Sunday with highs around 60. For
Monday through Wednesday we should see afternoon temperatures in the
50s with lows in the 20s to around 30 (mildest Sunday night and
Tuesday night). Will have to watch for the possibility of light
precipitation during the day Monday as some moisture in the 850-
500mb layer moves through from the north. Looks like another windy
day Monday afternoon as well with northwest winds gusting to 40 mph
or so at present time.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1032 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

For Kgld, barely mvfr or just above mvfr ceilings are expected
this afternoon. Northwest winds of near 18 knots gusting to 25
knots are expected. From late this afternoon into early this
evening very light snow or flurries is expected near the site and
have included vcsh. Until 06z west to northwest winds will be near
12 knots. At that time, northwest winds will increase to near 17
knots with gusts to near 24 knots. Beginning at 14z the sustained
speeds and gusts will increase about 7 knots.

For Kmck, vfr conditions are expected through the period. West to
northwest winds of 7 to 12 knots are expected through tomorrow
morning. At 16z, the winds will shift to the northwest at near 16
knots with gusts to near 24 knots.


Issued at 221 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

As stated above will have very windy conditions for Friday. For
the counties along and west of the Colorado border, expect
northerly winds to become sustained into the 25 to 40 mph with
gusts to around 60. Relative humidities drop down close to 15
percent in that area as well with the lowest values in eastern
Colorado. After collaboration with SPC and WFOs Pub and Bou, it
was decided to issue a Red Flag Warning for my eastern Colorado
counties where the confidence was the highest for the criteria to
be met. With not as much certainty about criteria being met for a
3 hour period further east, I went ahead and issued a Fire Weather
Watch for the row of counties just to the east of the Colorado


KS...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon
     for KSZ001-013-027-041.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for

CO...High Wind Warning from 10 AM to 5 PM MST Friday for COZ090>092.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 5 PM MST Friday for COZ252>254.

NE...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon
     for NEZ079.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for



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