Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 260912
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
312 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 538 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Added patchy fog mention after 06-9Z tonight through 13-15Z
Monday morning. As surface front lifts tonight low level moisture
increases, so while winds shift to a less favorable direction
guidance is supporting stratus/fog. Fog signal isn`t consistent on
location, but most models are showing pockets of reduced
visibilities over at least portions of our CWA (particularly NW KS
based on RAP/HRRR). Reason for inconsistency could be due to
differences in mixing from potential showers/thunderstorms or
lingering sky cover (fog may be more likely on back edge of
stratus deck near CO state line where there is better radiational
conditions).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 158 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...mainly mostly cloudy
skies prevail as the area lies on the north side of a frontal
boundary. The lingering cloud cover this afternoon is playing a key
role in daytime temps. Any breaks showing up are allowing for a
several degree bump up. But with the entire CWA not seeing this
benefit...a wide range in temps has developed from the upper 50s to
near 70f. ESE winds are prevalent over the area with gusts still
near 20 mph in spots. Scattered showers are still working into the
area from the NW and should continue thru the remainder of the day.

Going into tonight...a shift of the surface ridge north and east of
the region along with surface trough over the Rockies...will allow
for the front over NW Kansas to meander thru the region and
eventually end up near eastern zones by Monday morning. Models show
enough weak instability to warrant mention of trw/rw...especially
for eastern portions of the CWA. With PW values still near and inch
for many locales...locally heavy rainfall could occur with any
convective development. Looking for overnight lows in the lower to
mid 50s.

For Monday...southerly flow with decent WAA returns to the region.
NW downslope H5/H7 winds will bring the CWA lower to mid 80s for
daytime highs. Isolated/scattered storms could develop thru the
day...and with the remnants of today`s front still meandering over
the region...instability could bring about potential severe for the
afternoon hrs...especially for eastern zones. SPC does have the
region under a Marginal Risk.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 309 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Thursday: Looks to be another day with the potential for strong to
severe storms during the afternoon hours through the overnight.
Model soundings show MUCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg, DCAPE near 1700
J/kg, and 0-6km bulk shear of 35-50kt across the area. Damaging
winds and hail look to be the biggest threats with any storms that
form. With PWATs around 1.50 inches, will also have to watch for the
possibility of heavy rain accompanying storms during the evening.

Friday-Sunday: Weak cold front pushes through the area late Thursday
or early Friday. Will have a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms Friday night. Models differ for the rest of the
period. GFS is showing cooler daytime temps and wetter conditions
through Sunday evening than the ECMWF. GFS maintains NW flow aloft
over the area Saturday and Sunday, whereas the ECMWF moves upper
level ridging into the area which creates a decent amount of
subsidence over the CWA. Forecast is essentially a blend of the two
on temps and PoPs. Should be noted that if the GFS verifies, CWA
could see weekend conditions very similar to this past weekend with
cooler temps, cloud cover, and precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1123 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

IFR stratus at KGLD developed along surface trough where easterly
winds shifted to the southeast. Models are still showing
improvement through the morning, however with additional low level
moisture moving into the region both terminals are likely going to
see cigs at least in the 1200-3000 ft AGL range prevailing in the
first 6hr of the TAF. IFR can`t be ruled out either, but
confidence is higher at KGLD based on current trends. I could
still see vis dropping to 1sm or less as well, but wind direction
shifting to the south then eventually southwest may beginning to
bring drier air into the region in the lowest levels. This shift
lower confidence, and there is not a consistent signal in fog from
guidance.

Other aviation concern will be possible showers/thunderstorms,
with best chances this afternoon and evening. Considering
uncertainty and range from possible thunderstorm initiation I held
off on introducing a prevailing thunder mention in TAFs.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...DR


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