Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 131932

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1232 PM MST Tue Feb 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 234 AM MST Tue Feb 13 2018

Much warmer temperatures are expected on Wednesday to be followed
by a cold front Thursday afternoon and a chance of a mix of
wintry precipitation Thursday night.

Southwest flow aloft is maintained across the forecast area today
through early Thursday ahead of a trough that sweeps across the
northern and central high plains Thursday night into early Friday
morning. A lee surface trough deepens over eastern Colorado today
and tonight ahead of the upper trough and moves east across the
central high plains region Wednesday night in advance of the cold
front expected to push through the forecast area on Thursday.
Ahead of the cold front, high temperatures across the forecast
area are expected to range from the lower 50s across southwest
Nebraska to around 70 degrees over west central Kansas.

The chance of precipitation expected Thursday evening will follow
the passage of the cold front and transition from light rain to
light snow as temperatures fall through the evening. The highest
precipitation amounts will remain over eastern Colorado where only
a couple of hundredths of an inch of moisture is expected along
with less than one half an inch of snow.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1227 PM MST Tue Feb 13 2018

The upper level flow will transition from northwest to west then
southwest as a short wave trough moves through followed by a larger
deepening low by the middle of next week.  The environment will be
too dry to support any precipitation development when the first
trough moves through Friday night.  However have more confidence of
precipitation occurring toward the middle of next week as the upper
level flow turns from northwest due to the second low deepening over
the Rockies.  The southwest upper level flow is more favorable for
generating precipitation for the Plains as it directs water vapor
from the Pacific to the Heartland.  Models disagree with the
strength of this trough, so its trajectory will likely change some
over the coming days.  As of today, this trough will be the next
best chance for any precipitation for the Tri-State Area.  Still too
far out to determine how much precipitation this trough will bring,
but the trajectory does look favorable for meaningful precipitation.

Temperatures will continue to vary ahead of this deepening trough.
Currently temperatures will be the warmest Sunday, then cool down 20
degrees or so Monday as a cold front moves through.  Temperatures
will change little Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1013 AM MST Tue Feb 13 2018

VFR conditions and prevailing winds below 10kt should persist
through the TAF period at KGLD and KMCK with high pressure in
place. Light westerly winds develop late tonight and this should
bring drier air into the low levels and limit any fog formation,
and this is supported by the majority of guidance. I can`t rule
out light fog where winds are calm tonight and Wednesday morning,
but the signal is very limited and patchy at best.




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