Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 192147
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
247 PM MST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 126 PM MST Sun Feb 19 2017

Latest upper air analysis shows a trough over the Desert Southwest
extending into Mexico.  To the east a ridge was located over the
Mississippi River Valley.  Ahead of the trough water vapor was being
channeled north over the Plains.  Accompanying the trough was much
drier air.

This evening have low confidence for any rainfall development.  As
the upper level trough approaches the Tri-State Area lift increases,
but drier air also moves in.  The only chance for rainfall currently
looks to be over the eastern part of the forecast area where weak
lift will be coupled with increasing moisture ahead of the
encroaching dry air.  Any storms that develop will shift east before
midnight.  Meanwhile over to the northwest a band of elevated
moisture does move across Yuma and neighboring counties, but it is
not very deep. Am not expecting any precipitation from that as a
result.

The breezy winds will continue well into the evening due to the
tight pressure gradient ahead of a pre-frontal trough that will move
through overnight.  As the trough moves through south winds will
decline and turn to the northwest.  The northwest winds will
gradually increase as the pressure gradient tightens behind the
trough.  A weak cold front will accompany the increasing winds
overnight.  Behind the front dew points will lower as drier air
moves in.

Lows will be cooler than last night in East Central Colorado due to
the cold front and drier air.  To the east lows will be the same to
a few degrees warmer.  The lows over the east continue to be similar
to what normal highs for this time of year would be.  The very warm
lows from last night and tonight may well set/tie records for the
warmest low for today.

Monday northwest winds will increase in the morning, with winds
reaching a peak around noon.  During the afternoon winds will
gradually decline as the low level jet overhead weakens.  Highs will
be cooler than today, despite the clear sky, due to the cooler air
mass.  The breezy winds and dry air may lead to critical fire
weather conditions.  See fire weather section for further
information.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 149 PM MST Sun Feb 19 2017

Warm and dry conditions will remain in place through Wednesday
with cooler temperatures and precipitation developing across the
region late Thursday and more seasonable conditions through next
weekend.

An upper short wave ridge moves over the high plains in the wake
of the exiting trough Monday night. A surface trough deepens along
the front range on Tuesday and moves across the high plains
region by Wednesday morning as the westerly flow across the
central Rockies begins turning more southwesterly and sags further
south between Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the next upper
trough moving into position near the 4-corners region Wednesday
night. A deepening low is reflected at the surface over southeast
Colorado and southwest Kansas by Thursday morning ahead of the
upper trough sweeping across the forecast area Thursday afternoon
and evening.

Precipitation is expected to develop across the region by late
Thursday with better chances and higher amounts over the northern
sections as colder air moves in on the back side of the low as it
exits to the region early Friday morning. Precipitation will begin
as rain then mix and change over to all snow Thursday night with
snow diminishing as the system exits the area on Friday. Friday
will have the coldest temperatures with highs only reaching into
the 30s and lower 40s. The forecast currently only has one half
inch or less of snow accumulations. Even though it may be breezy
as snow moves into the region, the possibility of blowing snow is
in question as soil temperatures have risen above freezing from
the recent very warm temperatures. So the snow that falls may
undergo melting as it reaches the ground and may stick instead of
being blown around with any decreases in visibilities early
Friday morning being caused by wind driven snow as it falls.

ECMWF and GFS model solutions differ somewhat through the end of
the week and into the weekend as the GFS tries to drive a deeper
trough into the southwest while the ECMWF moves the next
disturbance through the west and Rockies as an open wave by
Sunday. The SuperBlend solution keeps near average temperatures
across the area through the weekend with a possibility of
rain/snow again on Saturday night and Sunday night as the next
couple of disturbances move east of the Rockies and across the
high plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1034 AM MST Sun Feb 19 2017

VFR to possibly IFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Breezy winds
this afternoon will continue well into the evening. A pre-frontal
trough moving through will cause winds to turn to the northwest
overnight. As the winds turn they will decline. Behind the trough
northwest winds will increase Monday morning as a weak cold front
moves through. There may be some low level wind shear late this
evening as a strong low level jet develops ahead of the pre-
frontal trough.

KMCK may have some IFR clouds move through prior to winds turning
to the west tonight. The window of opportunity is short and models
disagree how moist the first few hundred feet will be.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
     for KSZ001-013-027-041-042.

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
     for COZ252>254.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JTL



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