Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 182023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
223 PM MDT Tue Apr 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Cold front has settled into southwest Kansas this afternoon,
however as a shortwave trough lifts out of the central Rockies
tonight, cyclogenesis will occur near the Colorado-Kansas border
area. This will effectively lift the old front north as a warm
front, while a dry line develops southward from the low. Models
indicate the warm front will make it as far north as southwest
Nebraska after midnight, which is where any elevated thunderstorm
may develop. Confidence is rather low in that happening, however,
as the short term models keep the convection well north of the
local area. Might see some fog develop along and north of the warm
front as well with moist upslope low levels. Dry northwest winds
will take over by early afternoon as the shortwave trough lifts
out and the cold front sweeps southeastward. Expecting mostly
sunny skies Wednesday afternoon and temperatures warming into the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM MDT Tue Apr 18 2017

An active pattern continues at the start of the long term period
along with a slight cool down, before a warming trend develops and
dry weather persists next week.

A cold front pushes through the region Wednesday night with
subsidence filtering in behind. This is followed by some weak upper
ridging, leading to dry conditions during the day on Thursday.

However, precipitation chances return from the west with the
potential for showers beginning Thursday night as an upper trough
over the Pacific Northwest dives southeast towards Colorado and
closes off. Chances increase Friday morning as the low approaches
northwest Kansas. Overcast skies on Friday will aid in keeping
temperatures for the day below normal.

It currently looks as though the system will pass across western
Kansas Friday afternoon and bring precipitation chances to the area
through early Saturday, with activity tapering off late Friday and
Saturday morning.

Northwest flow aloft and ridging builds into the High Plains over
the weekend behind Friday`s system, keeping the area dry. Another
disturbance tracks across the Dakotas and towards the Great Lakes on
Monday and Tuesday. This closed low flattens the ridge over our area
and zonal flow forms aloft. Dry weather prevails through the end of
the period with precipitation chances off to our north near the
passing disturbance.

Temperatures fall at the start of the period, from the mid/upper 60s
on Thursday to the low/mid 50s on Friday. A warming trend kicks in
for the weekend and early next week, with highs in the 70s Monday
and Tuesday. Low temperatures will generally be in the upper 30s and
40s. The exception to this will be Saturday night into Sunday
morning when temperatures appear to fall into the 30s across the
forecast area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Tue Apr 18 2017

At KGLD...VFR expected through the TAF period. Cold front has
moved through the terminal with northeast surface winds early this
afternoon veering to southeast by late afternoon. A dry
line/surface trough will move through after midnight with winds
shifting to southwest, then a cold front Wednesday morning with
winds shifting to northwest.

At KMCK...VFR expected through the afternoon and evening hours.
Cold front may get hung up as a stationary front this afternoon
keeping surface winds easterly. After midnight, areas of low
clouds and patchy fog may develop near the front, reducing flight
categories through early Wednesday morning. An isolated
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out overnight, which if it develops
has the potential to produce large hail.




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