Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 230834

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
234 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 233 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Large scale ridge has amplifies over the western US, with NW flow
over the Northern Plains. At the surface high pressure is in place
over our CWA with a cold front now south and southwest of our CWA.

Early this morning: Patchy fog has developed near our eastern CWA
early this morning where higher surface Td`s are in place. Short
range guidance indicates that visibilities may be reduced to one
mile or less in our far eastern CWA before clearing takes place
after sunrise. This will need to be monitored.

Today-Monday night: Subsident and much drier air mass should support
dry conditions through these periods. Weak shortwave troughs may
rotate through the mean flow towards our region and some models show
weak precip signals, but with very dry moisture profiles I am
skeptical. Consensus if favoring dry conditions, and I leaned this
direction. If there was a period to monitor it may be Monday/Monday
night with better instability developing as southerly flow in the low
levels brings higher Tds back to our CWA. This is in response to
surface trough deepening in our west. Disorganized forcing is shown
my models, with a very inconsistent precip signal and the pattern
currently favors locations outside our CWA (mainly north).
Temperatures should be near seasonal values (upper 80s/90s for

Tuesday-Tuesday night: Ridge begins to flatten and with increasing
moisture at both the surface and PWATs we should see a more
unsettled pattern return. Models are showing decent instability in
place as another shortwave trough (a little stronger) moves into the
region, and models are showing better consistency in possible
thunderstorm activity Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening.
Coverage is still a question, but slight chance/chance PoPs seems
reasonable. Model soundings show enough instability in place to raise
the possibility for a few severe thunderstorms. Shear will be weak,
so confidence isn`t high in an organized/widespread threat. Primary
impacts to monitor should be hail, wind, and possible heavy rain due
to better moisture profiles (PWATs around 1.3").

Air mass will moderate Tuesday-Tuesday night, and Highs will once
again be near 100F for parts of our CWA Tuesday afternoon, while
lows will remain mild. Heat index values should be low enough an
advisory won`t be needed.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Sunday night-Tuesday: This period should remain dry as upper level
ridging dominates the weather. Temperatures will be above normal
with eastern sections of the area once again, seeing highs near the
century mark on Monday and Tuesday.

Tuesday night-Saturday: Ridge flattens somewhat allowing zonal to NW
flow aloft. Series of shortwaves will traverse the area through the
period. These, combined with some leeside troughing at the surface
will bring chance to likely PoPs through Saturday morning with best
rain and storm chances coming Thursday night through Friday night.
Some storms may become strong to severe each afternoon and evening.
Temperatures now look to be at or below normal for the period. 12Z
Euro MOS actually has a high of 79 in Goodland on Thursday. Will be
fine tuning the forecast through the weekend to better pinpoint
hazards and temps since global models have not been very consistent
from run to run the past few days.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1138 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. Light and variable
winds are expected at both sites through the first half of the
period. In the last half those winds will shift to the south to
southeast near 7 knots.




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