Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 122043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
143 PM MST Thu Jan 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 143 PM MST Thu Jan 12 2017

Currently, conditions are dry with high clouds blanketing the Tri-
State region. Winds are from the northeast at 5 to 15 mph and will
gradually shift to the east as a weak cold front pushes into the
region. This front will help bring in some lower clouds this evening
into tomorrow. Overall, the region is expected to be cloud covered
through the period.

The remainder of the day into Friday will be dry. There is a low
pressure system moving closer to the region and will push a very
weak shortwave into the far northwestern portions of the CWA.
Currently, the confidence is low that there will be any
precipitation, it looks to stay north of the area. The upper level
flow will shift to the southwest as that low pressure system deepens
into Arizona. This will eventually push a lot of moisture into the
region. Temperatures will drop into the teens tonight and rebound
back into the 20s and 30s Friday.

The main focus will be this weekend with the winter weather system
moving over the region. Icing, sleet and snow are all possible.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 218 AM MST Thu Jan 12 2017

Potential winter storm in the early part of the period will be the
main focus. Still expecting a wintry mix of precipitation to start
Sunday morning. Soundings show a fairly stout elevated warm layer
above a subfreezing surface layer. Precipitation type would be
either freezing rain or sleet in that scenario. There is some
potential for significant icing, particularly south of Interstate
70. The main upper low will kick out of the southern plains and
across western Kansas Sunday night. Precipitation will change over
to all snow except perhaps the far eastern areas which will be
close to the upper low track. The rest of the area will be near
the upper trowal feature with the potential for heavy snow.
Wraparound snow will continue into Monday before finally ending
Monday night. ECMWF and GFS are in surprisingly good agreement
with snow totals during this time, both indicating up to a foot
possible. Given the combination of ice and heavy snow, a
crippling winter storm appears to be possible for most of the
forecast area. The system is still several days out, however, and
even a small change in track or temperatures could impact ice and
snow totals.

The remainder of the long term period looks dry under northwest
flow. Temperatures will slowly warm back to near normal by the
middle of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1036 AM MST Thu Jan 12 2017

VFR conditions are expected over both KGLD and KMCK for the

Currently, winds are out of the northeast for both sites at less
than 10 kts. These winds will begin to turn to a more easterly
direction as the day and night progresses due to a cold front
moving through the region. KMCK is expected to stay below 10 kts,
with KGLD reaching around 12 kts for a few hours this afternoon.
High clouds are expected to remain over the region through the
period but VFR conditions will remain. There could be a brief
period Friday early to mid-morning that could see MVFR cigs over
both sites but decided to leave that out of the TAFs for now due
to the uncertainty.




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