Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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303
FXUS63 KGLD 051721
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1021 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SNOW SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL BE
UPDATING GRIDS AND ZONES SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ARE THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE THE CONCERN
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER THAT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE TRYING TO WARM TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES FROM WHAT IS BEING ADVERTISED DUE TO THE SNOW COVER.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION TODAY. THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS
THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH LESS THAN
A HALF INCH OF SNOW EXPECTED AT ANY LOCATION.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING FOLLOWS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH
THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE...SO ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED.  THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH 50-70 KTS 1.5K
TO 3K FT ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ANTICIPATE QUIET WEATHER WITH
GRADUAL WARMING TREND. FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
WARMING LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WARM WEATHER PERSISTING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS WITH RECENT DAYS...DO NOT THINK
THIS IS COMPLETELY REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE 10+
INCHES OF SNOW REMAIN ON THE GROUND. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORS...ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM THE CR
INITIALIZATION BY USING A 50% BLEND WITH BCCONSRAW AND A FEW OTHER
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. IN THE END...THIS LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES 3-4
DEGREES...SPECIFICALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70
AND EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD. AS A RESULT OF THE
RIDGE BLOCKING THE FLOW...NO DISTURBANCES SHOULD PASS THROUGH. ONE
THING TO MONITOR IS WIND SPEEDS ON MONDAY. A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A STRONG JET OF
WINDS ALOFT SLIDES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS INTO
MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING INTO THIS
JET...WHICH WOULD BRING STRONGER WIND GUSTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
INCREASED SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL. STILL
SEVERAL DAYS OUT BUT FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO AT LEAST MAKE AN
ADJUSTMENT TOWARDS POTENTIAL HIGHER WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AT BOTH TAF SITES AS WE
HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT
KMCK THROUGH MUCH THE DAY WITH KGLD SEEING HIGH CLOUDS WITH LESSER
COVERAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AT 10
TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AT KGLD AND 8 TO 12 KT AT KMCK.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AT BOTH TAF SITES...BECOMING WEST
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TL
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...TL



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