Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 162037

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
137 PM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 345 AM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

Synoptic Overview: Shortwave energy in British Columbia will dig
southeast into the northern Rockies this afternoon and the
Central/Northern Plains tonight, then progress east across of the
region on Saturday. NW flow aloft (today/Sat) will back to the W/SW
on Sun/Sun night as more substantial shortwave energy digs SSE/SE
ashore the PAC NW. No precipitation is expected across the Tri-
State region through the weekend.

Today/Tonight: Canadian high pressure invof the area this morning
will progress east toward the MS river valley this afternoon/
evening as a lee cyclone develops in advance of the approaching
shortwave in NW flow aloft. Breezy north winds will quickly
subside and become light/variable this morning, then shift to the
south and strengthen (from west-east) this afternoon/ evening as
the MSLP gradient tightens between the departing surface high and
the developing lee cyclone in eastern CO. Expect highs ranging
from the upper 30s to mid 40s, coldest in northeast portions of
the area. Southerly flow may increase to 20-25 mph sustained with
gusts to 35-40 mph for a period late this afternoon and evening,
particularly S/SW of I-70. Expect moderating temps via southerly
flow, with lows in the 20s.

Sat/Sat Night: In the wake of shortwave energy /attendant sfc
cyclone/ progressing across the Central Plains, winds will shift
to the NW and increase to 20-30 or 25-35 mph with gusts as high
as 40-50 mph for several hours late Saturday morning and early
Saturday afternoon (particularly in northeast portions of the
area). Without a cold upstream airmass, expect neutral thermal
advection with highs Sat continuing to moderate, ranging from the
mid/upper 40s to lower 50s (S/SE). Winds will back to the south
and strengthen to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph Saturday
night as another lee cyclone develops in advance of additional
shortwave energy digging ashore the PAC NW, flow aloft backs from
NW-W, and the MSLP gradient tightens over the High Plains.

Sun/Sun Night: Southerly flow is expected to persist on Sunday as
potent shortwave energy digs SSE into the Intermountain West and
the aforementioned lee cyclone deepens over northeast CO. Low-
level warm advection will allow temps to climb through the 60s to
near 70F Sun afternoon in northwest KS, particularly south of
I-70. Further north, high temperatures may be affected by a cold
front progged to surge southward through the Tri-State region late
Sun afternoon/evening. Lows Sun night will be depend primarily
upon cold advection, falling into the teens and 20s Mon morning.

Fire Weather: Adverse fire weather conditions are expected across
portions of the Tri-State region on both Saturday and Sunday,
particularly along/south of I-70.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 137 PM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

Going into the beginning of next week...Monday starts the region off
with another surge of arctic as a frontal boundary pushes south thru
the region during the day. H5/H7 shortwave will sweep east across
the region Monday night into Tuesday...triggering some light snow
with no accum. Surface ridge behind the front slow to shift
southward to provide warmup. Models trend in another night of cold
conditions before next warmup start for next Wednesday and Thursday.

For temps...Monday will have a wide range due to fropa with 20s
north to near 50F south. Otherwise...looking for highs to range from
20s on Tuesday...30s for the 40s for the end of the
week. Overnight lows will only be in the single numbers Monday and
Tuesday nights...teens Wednesday night to 20s for the remainder of
the forecast period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1018 AM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

VFR conditions are expected for the GLD and MCK TAF sites through
the 18Z TAF period. LLWS is expected at GLD due to a combination
of the stronger pressure gradient and the shallow colder airmass
that is still present. LLWS should diminish at GLD through the
afternoon as the temperatures warm and the airmass begins to mix
along with the pattern shifting eastward that takes the high
pressure area over the plains states while the lee trough deepens
over eastern Colorado. A wind shift is expected across the region
overnight as the pattern shifts, so there is another potential for
LLWS across the region from the northwest above the surface
inversion while surface winds are somewhat slower to transition
from the south to the northwest during the early morning hours
Saturday morning.




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