Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 241950
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
150 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.  A SURFACE LOW WILL EXIST OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO DURING
THIS TIME.

SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.  FORCING WILL BE NEAR THE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST FA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE FA
LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.
PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH POPS FOR TONIGHT NEAR THE TROUGH WITH LOWER
POPS AFTER 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER RH
INCREASES AFTER 06Z MONDAY SO WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIFT NEAR
THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE
STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO THE FA AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE FA.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH STORMS INITIATING NEAR THE TROUGH IN THE WATCH AREA AND STORM
MOTION 10 TO 15KTS. RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND ADDITIONAL RAIN EXPECTED
SUPPORT THE WATCH.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 IN EASTERN COLORADO TO
75 IN THE EASTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MONDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIFT FROM THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA SO WILL HAVE SOME CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL LINGERING IN THE MORNING.  DURING THE AFTERNOON THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA.
WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASE AS A RESULT.  MEANWHILE THE
DRY LINE WILL HAVE MOVED EAST ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWING THE TROUGH
AND DEEPENING OVER IT.  MIXED LAYER CAPE AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE WILL
BE 1500J/KG BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE LOWER THAN TODAY...AROUND
20KTS.  COULD SEE A SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP...BUT WILL BE RATHER PULSY
IN INTENSITY.

MONDAY EVENING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY.  EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO DECLINE AS A
RESULT...WITH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IF THE TROUGH
MOVES A BIT MORE SLOWLY THAN EXPECTED.

TUESDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST.  WITH THE DRY LINE EAST OF THE AREA AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
15KTS...AM NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER.

TUESDAY NIGHT A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BRINGING ANY STORM
CHANCES TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK
WET WITH PRECIP CHANCES MIDWEEK THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER...WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO BE IN THE 70S TO LOW
80S...BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
BY SATURDAY.

A ZONAL PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FLOW
THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
AREA BRINGING WARMER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS WEAK DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ARRIVING OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MVFR CONDTIONS POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT KMCK AND KGLD BASED ON SATELLITE AND
METARS. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS THIS
EVENING AT BOTH SITES WITH DECREASING STORMS BY 06Z AND THEN
STRATUS MOVING IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY MONDAY MORNING.|


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ090-091.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL/JBH
AVIATION...FS


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