Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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613
FXUS63 KGLD 092015
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
115 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 225 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

Today-tonight...little if any cloudiness expected with the caveat
being possibly some cirrus clouds per 300mb relative humidity if the
models can be believed. Otherwise am expecting northwest winds
across the western 1/2 to 1/3 of the area to increase into the 15 to
25 mph range with higher gusts today with lesser winds across the
east. Winds quickly decrease below 10 mph by sunset then increase
into the 10 to 20 mph range with some gusts by mid evening and
continue overnight. High temperatures in the low to upper 50s. Low
temperatures in the upper teens to around 30 and could be tricky
given the expected increase in west-northwest winds. If enough
mixing develops with the winds lows should be milder then currently
expected.

Sunday-Sunday night...little if any cloudiness during the day with
some mid and high clouds moving in from the north during the night.
850mb temperatures warm about 3F to 10F across the area supporting
highs in the low to possibly mid 60s. Low temperatures in the low
20s to low 30s.

Monday-Monday night...some cooler air backs into the area during the
day with 850mb temperatures dropping about 7F to 10F across the
area. This would support highs in the low to mid 50s. Low
temperatures in the upper teens to low 20s. Northwest winds increase
into the 20 to 25 mph range with higher gusts by late morning and
continue through mid to late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 115 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

For the extended period...little change expected in the forecast
from previous runs. Models continue to have strong H5/H7 ridging
over the western portion of the country...with a trough/upper low
combo over the east. Several shortwaves will work down along the
east side of the upper ridge during the upcoming week. These systems
will work SE into the Central Plains region before moving east and
eventually get caught up in the circulation of the low/trough over
the east.

While these systems will come thru dry...winds will end being the
main focus with their passage. Low level jet associated with
Monday`s shortwave passage could mix down 850-700 mb winds in the 45-
60kt range from 18z-00z. Consmos has been consistent in showing this
for past few days so have used instead of forecast blend. Shortwaves
for the latter portion of the week will also bring potential for
breezy/windy conditions for the afternoon hours.

These winds combined with the dry conditions will bring about low RH
readings...with many days 20 percent or less...especially along and
west of Highway 25/27. This will bring about critical/near critical
Fire Wx conditions for the afternoon hrs. Up first will be Monday
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 225 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions through the period. For KGLD
northwest winds today should gust near 30kts while at KMCK
northwest winds look to be around 13kts with a few higher gusts.
For tonight west to west-northwest winds in the 10 to 15 kt range
for both terminals. Little if any cloudiness expected.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for
     KSZ001-013-027-041.

CO...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ252>254.

NE...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NEZ079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR



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