Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 251509
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
909 AM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 909 AM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Update to forecast sent to adjust cloud cover and remove mention
of fog for eastern areas. Currently across the forecast
area...the region is looking at mainly mostly sunny to sunny
conditions with some lingering low cloud over portions of NE
Colorado. Low clouds also remain over far eastern zones...which
are closest to the back edge of yesterday`s system.

This cloud cover will continue to linger for the next few
hours...eroding slowly thru midday...so have trended to mostly
sunny by 18z. Based on current obs...have removed mention of
patchy/areas of fog from earlier forecast. Full sunshine in those
affected areas has allowed the fog to burnoff/dissipate. Temps
look fine at this time as area currently ranging in the upper 30s
to the lower 40s. No other changes at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Forecast concern will be continued active weather pattern. Satellite
showing a somewhat amplified but still progressive wave train from
the Pacific into the western coast of North America. This flow
temporarily splits/slows down over the central portion of the
country due to slow moving upper system that brough widespread
precipitation to the region. Next system to look at is an open
moving onto the west coast.

Models were starting out well at mid levels but would have to give a
slight edge to the Canadian. The models were tending to have the
surface ridge behind exiting system too far to the east. The
Canadian and Nam were doing the best. The Ecmwf was doing a little
better than the Nam and Gfs on the low level thermal field.

For Today/tonight...Initial issue to deal with will be the fog.
Current depiction of fog looks good, especially just west of the
clearing line, and did not change anything. Will have plenty of sun.
However, ridge axis and unfavorable wind field/lack of mixing will
keep temperatures from reaching their full potential and lowered a
little.

New system will develop/strengthen just to our west in the latter
half of the night. Theta-e lapse rates become favorable along with
the lift and moisture. so will keep a slight chance in the far west
for later tonight.

Models showing an increase in boundary layer moisture in the last
half of the night as well. So an influx of stratus looks to occur
with some fog as well. So will have fog east of the Colorado border
with the greater coverage of fog in the eastern sections.

For Sunday/Sunday night...Some patchy fog will continue in advance
of the precipitation to move across the area. System moves across
the area during the day. Circulation center stays to our south and
keeps the area in a favorable location to receive measurable
precipitation especially for the south/southwest half of the area.
Theta-e lapse rates are negative and forcing/moisture increase
through the day. Like the orientation of the pops the builder gave
since it matches the forcing and instability well. Due to the
favorable low position and instability, raised pops a little and
they may need to be raised a little more. Precipitation amounts will
be light since this is a fairly quick mover. Also because of the
lapse rates, I added isolated thunderstorms with the showers.

System is exiting the area late in the day/early in the evening, and
kept the lingering pops that the builder since they matched previous
reasoning. Models showing/keeping boundary layer moisture high,
especially after midnight. Right now it looks like stratus, but may
have to add fog to the forecast with later forecasts.

For Monday/Monday night...Short wave ridging and dry weather occur
during the day. Easterly winds and increasing cloud cover should
keep temperatures from warming too much. Made little to no
adjustments to the forecasts.

The next system, a rather strong one, approaches the area late in
the night. Models show some disagreement as to speed and amplitude.
From what I have looked at, it appears the models have this system
coming in a little fast. Builder pops are rather high after
midnight. However, enough uncertainty that went ahead and left the
given pops alone.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 154 AM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Several storm systems will traverse the Tri-State region Tuesday
through Saturday. Showers will continue moving into the region on
Tuesday along an axis of instability stretching from central
Texas northwestward through eastern Wyoming. This axis is
associated with an area of low pressure that will be diving
southeastward, out of the Great Basin and into New Mexico and
Texas as we head into Wednesday. Widespread showers are expected
from Tuesday afternoon, into the overnight and extending all the
way through the day on Wednesday as this system moves south of the
region. There will be minimal CAA with the system until late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, leading to only a brief
period of snow or rain/snow mix through Thursday morning. This
system exits from southwest to northeast through the day on
Thursday. Although winds will become gusty on Tuesday/Wednesday,
high wind risk is relatively low at this time Tuesday through
Thursday.

Another low pressure system will travel well west the area as we
head into Friday afternoon. This system will move out of the Great
Basin late Friday afternoon, traveling southeastward into Arizona
and into Mexico on Saturday. An axis of instability will extend into
the region on Friday; however, confidence in this solution is
relatively low at this time and precipitation areas may change in
future updates due to track variation. Rain and perhaps a rain/snow
mix will be possible Friday evening and overnight into Saturday.

High temperatures during the extended period will be near to
slightly above average with low temperatures expected to be above
normal. Normal highs are in the lower to middle 50s with normal lows
in the lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 519 AM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

For Kgld...vfr conditions are expected through the period. Light
northwest to light and variable winds will shift to the southeast
at around 8 knots later this afternoon. After 06z these winds will
strengthen and little and begin to increase low level moisture.
Fog above mvfr and a scattered low deck are expected late in the
night as a result.

For Kmck...through 15z patchy fog reducing the visibility 6sm will
be near the site. Wind speeds will remain near 6 knots through the
period as they gradually shift from the northwest to north to
northeast then to east by late this afternoon. Those will become
southeast during the night and continue to transport low level
moisture into the area. Around 09z mvfr conditions are expected to
develop.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BULLER



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