Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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024
FXUS63 KGLD 261132
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
532 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT
TUE APR 26 2016

A RELATIVELY STRONG H5 TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND
SPARKING THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING WITH STRATUS LINGERING
INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS MAINLY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT COMBINED WITH GOOD INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS
CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. WE WILL SEE SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING WITH STRONGER STORMS
DEVELOPING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT THAT TIME. CURRENT GUIDANCE PUTS THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF HWY 283 HOWEVER ANYTHING THAT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT/DRYLINE COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH
RISKS INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACTIVITY
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WEAK JET STREAM FORCING WILL KEEP
THE SYSTEM FROM BEING PUSHED EAST VERY QUICKLY AND AS A RESULT WE
COULD SEE A CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SHORTWAVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INTO THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT
TUE APR 26 2016

SHORTWAVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY AND
FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG A THETA E
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE DRAPED FROM NORTH NORTHWEST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ONCE MORE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE H5
LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. LOWER POPS ARE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

FOR KGLD...MIX OF CONDITIONS THRU 14Z WITH 1-4SM IN -DZ/FG AND
CEILINGS BKN005 TO BKN025. AFT 14Z...VFR THRU 08Z WEDNESDAY W/ SCT
MID/HIGH CLOUD GIVING WAY TO BKN035...THEN BKN015 AFT 08Z
WEDNESDAY WITH VCSH. WINDS SSE TO SSW BY 14Z 10-20KTS. BY 03Z
WEDNESDAY...NW 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS AT TIMES.

FOR KMCK...MIX OF IFR TO MVFR AT TIMES WITH VISIBILITY RANGING
FROM 1-6SM IN -DZ/FOG AND CEILINGS BKN005-015. BY 18Z...VCTS W/
MVFR BKN015. BY 02Z...VFR SKIES TRANSITIONING TO MVFR AGAIN
BKN015-030 W/ -SHRA/VCSH. WINDS ESE 15-25KTS THRU 02Z WEDNESDAY
THEN NNW 10-20KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JN



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