Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 030542
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1042 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. MODELS ARE NOT CATCHING THE FULL EXTENT
OF THE FOG. FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED/ADVECTED INTO MOST LOCATIONS
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS FASTER AND
FURTHER EAST THAN THE MODEL DEPICTION. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE
CAPTURING THIS THE BEST. SO USED A BLEND OF REALITY AND THE LATEST
NAM TO INCREASE THE EXTENT OF THE FOG.

DAY SHIFT HAD SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE FOG BECOMING DENSE BUT WAS
THINKING THE WIND/MIXING WOULD PREVENT THAT. CURRENTLY THE NAM...
HRRR AND RAP ARE INDICATING DENSE FOG POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER. WHAT COMPLICATES THE EXTENT OF THE FOG AND
HOW LONG IT COULD STAY DENSE IS THE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN THE SPEED
THEY SWITCH THE WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AS THEY BRING IN
DRIER AIR. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THE SLOWEST SOLUTIONS COULD BE RIGHT. THIS WOULD ALLOW A
LONGER PERIOD OF DENSE FOG. WILL KEEP MONITOR AND WAIT FOR THE
LATEST MODEL DATA TO SEE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

AS OF 3 PM CST...2 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST. WINDS ARE SOUTH AT 15 TO 25 MPH...GUSTING
35 MPH. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 30S WHERE STRATUS PERSISTS
TO THE UPPER 30S WHERE CLOUD BREAKS ARE NOTED. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EJECTING AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...MANY FORECAST COMPLICATIONS HAVE LEAD
TO LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL. SEVERAL FACTORS ARE WORKING FOR
PRECIPITATION/FOG WHILE THERE ARE ALSO COMPETING FACTORS THAT COULD
NEGATE ANY POTENTIAL PRECIP/FOG THREAT. FIRST...BEGINNING WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THIS
EVENING. THIS RESULTS IN FURTHER WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION. IN
ADDITION...SLIGHT LIFT APPLIED BY PASSING SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
25. HOWEVER...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATE THAT MOST
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION REMAINS
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE IS PRESENT
IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SO NOT SURE IF THERE IS EVEN ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO PRECIPITATE. MOST LIKELY...PERSISTENT STRATUS CONTINUES
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A FEW SPORADIC OBSERVATIONS OF
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. ANY PRECIPITATION EXITS TO THE EAST BY
SUNRISE. WITH COLD GROUND/ROAD TEMPERATURES...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
DRIZZLE FREEZES ON CONTACT SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PATCHY
GLAZE. A COMPLICATING FACTOR TO THIS IS THE STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. THIS WOULD LIKELY ELIMINATE ANY THREAT OF ICE.

AS FOR THE FOG THREAT...SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER EAST COLORADO SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
WITH FOG ADVECTING EAST DURING THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
FOG MAY BE DENSE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INITIALLY.
HOWEVER...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS
RESTRICTS HOW LOW VISIBILITIES DROP AND WOULD LEAD TO MORE STRATUS
AND LIGHT FOG OBSERVATIONS THAN DENSE FOG. HAVE NOT MENTIONED DENSE
FOG BUT DID MENTION PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WHERE OCCURRENCE IS MOST
LIKELY. FOG DIMINISHES IN DENSITY/COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER
AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT IS SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL THAT
VISIBILITIES IMPROVE BEFORE SUNRISE BUT THIS SHOULD BE ONE OF THOSE
CASES WHERE IT OCCURS.

DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...THE NEXT DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO PUSH IN
FROM THE WEST. IN ADDITION...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE LIKELY WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF
10-15 MBS IN 6 HOURS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MEAGER UNTIL BETTER
FORCING ARRIVES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
FLURRIES ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE REACHED DURING THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGH REMAINDER
OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE THE POSSIBILITY
OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE CONTINUED
COLD TEMPERATURES.

THE THROUGH ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FINALLY SWEEPS
EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WITH
A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH WITH SNOW
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT 1-2
INCHES AT MOST OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO
LESS THAN ONE INCH FURTHER EAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...10-15 MPH NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE -10 TO -15
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY WARRANTED FOR EITHER THE SNOW OR THE
COLD WIND CHILLS AT THIS POINT...BUT MAY END UP MENTIONING THEM
IN THE HWO TO MAINTAIN SOME CONSISTENCY.

SIGNIFICANT WARMING TAKES PLACE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES COME UP TO NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW BEING MAINTAINED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS
PLACING THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE THE ECMWF RETROGRADES THE
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE PATTERN FLATTENS AND BECOMES MORE
OUT OF PHASE BETWEEN MODELS BY TUESDAY...BUT THE END RESULT IS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION REMAINS WARMER THAN AVERAGE AND DRY
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

MODELS ARE NOW REVERSING COURSE ON NOT ONLY FOG BUT STRATUS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A VERY HARD TIME THE LAST FEW DAYS IN
RESOLVING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW.
CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME VFR AT KGLD. PER SATELLITE AND LATEST
RAP/HRRR THAT MATCHES UP PRETTY WELL. SO UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT NEAR 14Z...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH KGLD...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MVFR FOR ABOUT 4 TO 5 HOURS BEFORE BECOME VFR AGAIN. TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING NEAR
KGLD. SO AT THIS TIME JUST PUT VCSH WITH MVFR CEILINGS. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY.

FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL NEAR 12Z WHEN THEY
BRIEFLY BECOME VFR RIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. JUST LIKE
KGLD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ABOUT 4 TO 5 HOURS AFTER THE
FRONT COMES THROUGH. AROUND 19Z VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THAT TIME...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS LIGHT SNOW...DEPICTED BY VCSH...MOVES INTO THE AREA.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BULLER



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